AGAIN.. THE ISSUE IS INTERPRETING WHAT WAS SAID!!!!

Two days ago, when I spoke of Assad's increasing desperation as he battled for Damascus International Airport and the fact the rebels now had Surface to Air Missiles,  it should have been very clear what "option" I was insinuating he may be preparing for.

The rebels have been talking for weeks about "activities" near the Syrian WMD sites and often it may have been a case of nobody really wanting to hear that kind of bad news.

It seems now, even those who hope it would all just go away are starting to come to the realization many of us did last year; Assad will use what he has once he has no other options.

Rather than saying, " I  told you so", lets look at what he may try and accomplish.

First off, lets review carefully what his official position continues to be.

His government states they would never use WMD on their "own people"?

Does that mean those loyal to Assad?????

Does that mean Syrian people all together?

Does that mean he will make up a story about "outsiders" / "Terrorist" being inside Syria?

He has already painted that picture, one that is true to some extent, for over a year now!

Will he claim the rebels / Terrorist / captured some of these weapons and then used them on the innocent people of Syria?

That is one theory, but I must admit not only is it a weak concept, but one that will not hold an once of support by anyone with the exception of perhaps Iran.

Some of these questions are difficult to predict answers for,  so lets move onto something just as important; what if he does use WMD?

What would he use?

Where would he use them?

How would he use them/

Here are my bets.

One, he would use Nerve agents not bio..

Bio is too difficult to work with and the outcome is far less predictable.

It's also far more complicated to execute than rocket or bomb delivered chemical / nerve / agents.

When it comes to chemical agents, two facts must be taken into consideration.

1.  What is the target and who is near it?

2.  What is the lifespan of the agent used?

Rebel positions near the border of Turkey would have issues of persistency and wind direction as limiting factors.

The reaction of the Turks to such an event is almost a no brainier... the fight is on!

Utilization near the border with Israel is nothing short of suicide for Assad and his government; and that fact worries me more than I would like to admit.

A remote target is a safer bet, if there is such a thing, but the impact on the rebels will be minimized.

So, that brings up the next logical question.

Why would he risk using them?

Before I try  to answer that, let me add what really worries me.

Question!!!!

Would Assad ask for permission from Iran prior to utilizing WMD?

Are we to assume Iran will have approved of Assad's plan if it does happen?

If we make that assumption, then we have a far more complex and dangerous event about to unfold.

If he is " going it alone" then will Iran stick by his side?

This is the part of this whole WMD issue that worries me the most!

Ok, what can be done about all of this?

One article attached states Israel has already asked for permission to take preemptive action?

That lead us to the next question.

Does the rest of the world wait until the weapons are used or does the world / US and "others" neutralize an imminent threat to regional peace?

This is always the hardest issue for leadership and this time is no exception!

The answer is factored on several key issues and Iran is one of  them.

One thing is for sure, these weapons, once made, mixed, don't like just sitting around.

If Syria has really mixed WMD / Chemical weapons, the idea of having ready to go just sitting around is as dangerous as you can get.

The warning given today by the US where as hard as they can come and Assad must think long and hard before he jumps off into the abyss.

Right along side Assad is Tehran!!!

Do they truly believe there is a price to pay for utilizing WMDs?

Time will tell, and time is not on Assad's side.

http://www.jpost.com/Defense/Article.aspx?id=294441

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-20583966

http://www.debka.com/article/22583/US-Israel-Turkey-Jordan-primed-to-strike-if-Assad-activates-chemical-weapons