2013:  WHERE IS THE MIDDLE EAST HEADING? PART III: THE GCC

As is always the case, the ability to predict the future of something as complex as the Middle East is nearly impossible.

Not only is it true for the leading nations of the world, but it is especially true for the government of the GCC.

The desire to maintain, "status quo", could easily become a pipe dream and 2013 with the GCC.

The ability of all parties involved to manipulate the emotions of the young and the poor with the purpose of either causing tensions ones enemies or deflecting internal discourse has become a tool with very little effective management.

It seems leadership of all the nations involved better creating problems others and they are dealing with their own.

GCC leaders are also coming to realize contrary to their common belief, they cannot buy their way out of every single issue that confronts them!

Are there injustices in the nations of the GCC?

Obviously the answer is yes; given the answer is yes and just about every nation in the civilized world.

In 2013 Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Kuwait and the rest of the GCC will struggle to avoid overreacting to a population that growing more and more divided; division is based upon external pressures such as Iran and internal injustices.

The counter perceived actions of Iran, the GCC must do more than simply create an equal level of tension inside of the Iranian sphere of influence; Iraq, Syria, Lebanon.

In order for the GCC governments to ensure their survival and more importantly societal calm, must travel the route at the current administration in Jordan is attempting.

The concept of appeasement and negotiation is always difficult.

Public perception is the weighted factor in the modern day version of negotiation.

King of Jordan realizes he simply cannot beat or water cannon public into submission.

He also realizes he is not facing the majority of his public, but a well-organized action led yet again Muslim brotherhood.

It is safe to say the Jordanians have a far more complex plan for dealing with the proxy social unrest is playing out inside Jordan.

The GCC leaders would do well in attempting to model the Jordanian plan is much as possible, but I'm afraid the arrogance of the GCC wealth was simply make that impossible.

So, in 2013 trials and tribulations with the GCC will most likely be based upon self-inflicted wounds as hard as they may try and blame "Iran" or others!

Simple problems are often solved quickly by organized and mature governments.

Simple problems become full-blown crisis is the governments that are not organized and even worse have little in common with the day-to-day society of their nations.

Information flows are too fast and far too deep for suppressive governments to effectively keep their people in the dark.

The fact that someone supplies large amount of the world's fuel does not negate them from being responsible for good governorship.

Simply put, troubles for the GCC in 2013 will be greater than the troubles of 2012.

How that affects the rest of the world unfortunately will still be based solely upon productivity of oil and the dangers to that productivity.