Thursday, September 27, 2012













OK... SO WHEN DO THEY GO?

 If you listened to  Netanyahu speech, some might argue, warning, he gave at the UNGA today, you may have only one question left to ask; " when do they go"?

I would have bet Netanyahu was going to spend a minimal amount of time on the issue of the Palestinian statehood, and I would have been right.  

As important as the PA issue is to some in this world, it is no longer the issue that threatens Israel's survival, at least not yet.

 THE RED LINE CONCEPT:

for weeks now, as everyone has been hearing of this "redline" concept, I've been fairly confident most simply didn't understand what it meant, to include some heads of governments.

What Netanyahu did today was make the concept crystal clear for all to see and hear, but this was not his only goal, it wasn't even his primary reason for giving the example.

What Netanyahu did today was warn the world, Israel has set a definite, finite timeline for war with Iran and he did this in such a way  that there can be no misunderstandings.

Netanyahu has been giving a warning to the world for over fifteen years, but this one was much different and I am convinced this was also his last warning.

So, who was his message really for?

The US leadership?

Partially.

The Arab States, who fear Iran as well?

Perhaps.

It is my opinion his real targeted audience was the people of Iran.

From this day forward, the Iranian people, who's life gets worse with each passing day of sanctions, must wonder how close is their government getting to the Redline?

The sudden "rumors" of a Spring / early Summer / event is a masterful form of psychological warfare.

The Iranian people have been somewhat worried of a pending war, but for the first time they have witnessed the Israeli leadership telling them exactly what event will bring them a event that will change their lives forever.

Will it work?

There seem to be two plausible options for the Iranian people.

1.  rise up against the government, the real hope of the rest of the world.
2.  Take this action by Netanyahu as a threat and rally around their leadership..

THE DANGER WITH NETANYAHU'S PLAN:

In a "healthy" governmental environment, leadership would most likely wait an given amount of time praying the people would rally to the side of leadership.

The problem is, the government of Iran is nowhere near healthy.

Paranoia and lack of trust rules the day, everyday.

No one paid closer attention to what was said today than the Iranian Leadership.

No one other than Iranian Leaders knows the window of time when this next phase of enrichment will take place.

Imagine if they are already there and they truly believe Israel knows this?

Panic is the next phase for Iranian leaders and that is the most dangerous option of all.

I have said this time and time again; why would Iran, knowing an attack is immanent, wait to lose what they have militarily?

Did Netanyahu just push Iran into making the fist move?

Did he intend to do so?

We shall see very soon!

No comments:

Post a Comment