Tuesday, July 17, 2012















SYRIA'S    TET????

As a follow up to my comments last night:


Some say the Tet Offensive was a turning point in the Vietnam War.

If what we are witnessing is the Syrian conflict's version of Tet, in
Damascus, then the same may hold true.

 Several interesting strategic events are becoming more and more clear as
the battle inside Damascus unfolds.

1.  The Rebels, by design I'm sure, have taken the pressure off of Homs and
other territories where they are attempting to solidify their hold.

             It's nearly impossible for Assad to go on the offensive, at least
for now, in other regions of Syria while his Headquarters is under attack.

             The Rebels will take advantage of this Damascus event to resupply
and prepare for the next round of attacks in the North.


2.  By attacking Damascus in force, Assad's supporters are probably losing
all hope of him, and them, staying in power.

3.  If the stories of Assad's troops firing into the Palestinian Refugee
Camps of Damascus are true, then the number of bodies ready to support the
conflict inside the city just increased tenfold.

             By the way; a brilliant move on the part of the Rebels; attack and
            then fall back into the Palestinian camps and force Assad's troops to fire
            on the Palestinian refugees in Damascus!

4.  This offensive in Damascus may smoke out the Iranian support and expose
it to the media.
           
            Imagine a Command Post full of angry senior Syrian military leaders
            with Iranian "aids" still whispering in the ear of Assad.


This Syrian "Tet" event is real trouble for Assad and Iran and Russia know
it.

Even if Assad's forces beat back the attackers, the visual impact to the
city, one his supporters still there will see, will have a devastating
impact.

The Rebels may have planned a brilliant "Tet" style event, but did they plan
an "end game"?

Imagine a Syrian senior leader, especially a military one, who defects and
makes the comment Assad is only listening to Iranian " Aids".

If someone makes the comment,  " Assad is murdering his own people with the
help of Iranian supporters", and that comment comes not from the Rebels, but
from a senior Syrian defector?

Tracking the WMD stockpiles is critical.

If Israel sees them being handed over to Hezbollah or other radical groups,
then what?


The Syiran "Tet" may be the game changer for not just Syria, but for the
whole region.


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