SO... WHAT IS A " REGIONAL WAR"?

If you've been following the events in the Middle East for the past 20 years, you've heard the term, "regional war", over and over and over again.

Let's ask a fundamental question, what is a " regional war"?

When you do the standard Google search you get something along the lines of, " A conflict with two or more countries that involves structural and collateral damage".

When you search US Military Doctrine, you will find a definition written by some Think Tank Academic that resembles a lawyer describing a Baseball game.

But, why is this issue important?

Simple; everybody and their Brother has jumped on the bandwagon, to include me, that the Middle East could be heading for a " Regional War".

Here is my problem!

I am convinced my definition of a Middle Eastern "Regional War" is most likely much different from the ones depicted by the Media Talking Heads or the Academics trying to make it sound so complicated that everyone is forced to buy their book to figure it out.

 Here is the basic problem with finding a definition for " Regional War".

What constitutes an " involved nation"?

Who do we determine the true list of " actors", especially in the murky world of the Middle East where certain " partners" are kept on a low profile?... No not Israel!!

If one nation accuses another of being, "involved" does that make it true?

Who determines who is involved and to what level?

The UN???

Please!!!

The regional war would be over by the time the UN could figure out  something that complex.

 Ok, I could spin this issue around and around and the next thing we would know, I would have a book on the Middle East and be wearing a black Turtleneck Shirt on CNN or FOX... Inside joke!!!

I can't paint you a picture of what everyone else understands a " Regional War" may look like in the Middle East, but I can tell you what I believe one may look like, and even then that is dependent on a stack of variables too large to review.

So, let me pick a scenario and then try and show what my theory of "Regional War" would look like.

Scenario:

Iran executes a Hezbollah backed attack against Israeli citizens, outside of Israel, resulting in a huge loss of life.  

Now I say outside of Israel given I believe this is what Iran is looking to accomplish at this point in time.

Just look at the events of the past three months.

Why would Iran want this method of attack?

Israel's reaction would have the appearance of attacking innocent Lebanese's citizens  given the attack didn't physically originate from Lebanon.

Their goal would be to punish or even possibly eliminate Hezbollah operations in Lebanon.

Ok, at this point in the "regional war".. who are the most physical  players?

Physical Players:

Israel. Lebanon...The Palestinian  Authority, remember they have camps in Lebanon as well... depending on how saver the Israelis respond would determine if these camps would be impacted.  Hezbollah doesn't operate out of these camps, but with a little effort Hezbollah could insure they were targeted.

Is this a "Regional War"????

Again, who are the sideline players? and does their indirect involvement make this a "Regional War"??

Sideline players:  Nations that would be directly  working to limit the conflict.

Turkey.. Egypt... Jordan... US.. Britain... France... Russia... Saudi.. the GCC...

Ah yes... how confusing can this all really get????

Ok, lets push the scenario further.

If Iran's master plan was to have Israel attack Lebanon and the Hezbollah forces, then lets assume they would also involve the factions of Hamas an other radical Gaza units.

A large scale, over 200 in a few hour period, rocket and missile attack is launched from Gaza into Israel and this all happens within two days of the initial Hezbollah attack somewhere else in the world.

Israel strikes into Gaza with a force designed to neutralize any threat coming out of Gaza.

Now, who are the physical players at this point?

Physical Players:

Israel, Lebanon, the PA.. ....... still no real change!!!

Who are the sideline players:

Sideline Players:

Turkey.. Egypt... Jordan... US.. Britain... France... Russia... Saudi.. the GCC..... still no real change!!! Maybe..

Did the escalation now make this a "Regional War"??? no!!!

Would many in media to include the virtual army of " talking head experts" start foaming at the mouth over a "Regional War" threat?

You bet!!!

By now we are probably adding a new level of players...

The " active sideline support players!

Who are they?

Sideline Support players:

Iran.... providing Hezbollah with follow on world wide targeting guidance and logistical support.

Some of the sideline players now become sideline support players..

The US would most likely be providing information to both Israel and several other nations in the region for the primary purpose of limiting the paranoia of escalation. yes.. this has is not new news.  

I bring this up because these are the two key nations that most experts , and I use that term lightly, are currently warning a "Regional War" might involve.

Ok, at this point, we have Israel pounding Hezbollah in Lebanon.. oh ya.. did I mention there are UN Forces in Lebanon??? How fast they can depart the battlefield I hope is a very practiced drill... we have Gaza under a land invasion.... we most likely have some level of armed conflict in the West Bank... we have Hezbollah potentially executing follow on Terror attacks around the world.. if Iran calls for them.. depends on what plan they unleashed. 

this is all starting to get confusing even to me..... but... here is what we don't have and this is the picture most of these so called experts keep depicting or at least have the average citizen thinking!!!!

We don't have Egyptian Tanks pushing through the Sinai...

We don't have the Syrian Air Force being shot down in one day by Israel.. Old news...

We don't have Jordanian troops backing up Egyptian ground troops...

We don't have Iranian armored divisions crossing into Iraq..

We don't have Iraq supporting anyone for any reason.

We don't have Saudi forces moving on Israel.

In my book.. by my doctrine.. we do not have a "total warfare / regional war"..

Again.. .what is a " Regional War"?????

yes.. .we have a war unlike Desert Storm or Iraqi Freedom, but we do not have 1973.

what we do have is an event that is just as deadly as 1973 if not more so... for you see.. the weapons of war are vastly improved and the body counts can rise just as quickly and the buildings can fall just a fast as they did in 1973.

Ok, here come the icing on the cake and then  I will tell you why it will still not be a "Regional War" like the one the talking heads keep depicting.

The decision could then be made by Israel that given their level of activation for such an event and given the pending nuclear issue with Iran.. Israel decides to solve that issue at the same time.

Israel decides, as they have historically done before, to take their nation to " total warfare" and deal with Hezbollah, Hamas and Iran to the fullest extent possible.

Now, who are the physical players?

Physical players:

Iran, Israel, Lebanon, the PA

Sideline Support Players:

US, Britain, France... do they support the attacks on Iran? perhaps logistically, but the main drive would be to keep the Straits open.  limited support would be the most likely course of action.. thus... sideline support.

Everyone else is completely immersed in keeping the event limited.. calming the world economic markets to the extent possible... in other words.. they are looking out for themselves.. to include the Arab States..

There is no Arab army... There is no Arab Air Force.. there is no Arab Navy and this is not an Arab War!!

This is why Israel will be willing to go to war.. This is why nations like Saudi and Jordan, will let this event take place..

When the dust settles.. there is money to be made and that is what drives the Middle East.