ANOTHER SNAPSHOT ON THE IMPORTANCE OF LEBANON TO THE REGION..

        

Two  nights ago,  I mentioned I would update my theory on  how Iran might leverage Lebanon to minimize the impact of a pending Israeli attack on Iran.

When I looked back at my previous post on how events might unfold in a Middle Eastern / Regional War / there is not much I would really change.

Now, after reading about the " Internal Look" exercise from Central Command, an exercise concept I have taken part in with that command in the past, I've discovered a few talking points that concern me.

Now, I've not read the After Action on the Exercise, but there are  some common, reoccurring, events in most of these " war games" that could  lead to the wrong impression of how  a true Middle Eastern " Regional War" might take place and what the outcomes may be!

For example, most of these War Games are developed and then executed by individuals who have a very " kinetic warfare" background.

Often words like, "Asymmetric" and " unconventional" are sprinkled into the exercises ether to avoid criticism or to insure the pre exercise briefing is approved by senior leadership.

This comment is not meant to slander senior exercise members or the leaders they work for, but the simple fact of the matter is most people are limited to what they are comfortable with and this is especially true when the time comes  to express  your ideas with others who will judge your product.

The age old saying of,  stick with what you know", becomes the norm.

The next common practice of these War Games is to execute them in a Alliance vacuum.

Most of them have a classification level that prevents some of the key players in the region from being partners in the development and execution of the exercise.

What happens is a group of US personal who are accredited with being " experts" at knowing the capabilities and limitations of identified partners are tasked to play the part of the " Allies".

Often this process is acceptable to a certain point, but without the "real deal" it's a risk factor that must not be lost on the outcome of the exercise.

In reality, there is simply no substitution for real players.

Ok, so let me see if I can paint you a picture as to why these two issues can come into play as we look at the importance of Lebanon.

If someone was to design a war game where the baseline assumption is Israel utilizing a first strike plan, then Lebanon and it's importance becomes one of the very first issues that must be addressed.

Israel could not afford to not to be prepared to neutralize a full scale attack from Hezbollah in Lebanon and Hamas from Gaza, even if Israel first strike is a limited campaign.

Israel would have to leadership that would be willing to assume the risk of a limited response by Iran give a Israeli limited attack. A huge risk in my book!!!

For the sake of argument, if Iran limited their response, Israel would still need forces allocated to dealing with Lebanon and Gaza.

This preparation would be visible to the thousands who would be funneling information back to Iran.

The act of preparing to deal with Lebanon and Gaza would drive the paranoia level in Lebanon, Gaza and Iran to levels that would make overreaction more than just a possibility.

Ok, you are starting to get the picture here.

The ability to fight a limited conflict in the region is nearly impossible.

It's so hard to rationalize and in my opinion impossible to believe Israel would risk a repeat of 2006 , 2008...

All or nothing.... I think that is the issue and it's the forces / Hezbollah forces / in Lebanon that make this limited concept nearly impossible to believe in.

Lebanon.... the loaded gun that Israel simply cannot afford to risk leaving alone!!

There you have it... Lebanon is key and it will remain key.

What factor Lebanon played in the Re-Look War Game, I have no idea or I wouldn't say, but if it was not a key factor, then the planners committed a grave error.

In the next two days or so, I will give my explanation of what is a "Regional War".

I'm fairly convinced most people, to include the media, has a misconception of what a Regional War is in terms of the Middle East.

The attached story on "relook" is interesting and the other links are to older post on the topic of conflict scenarios.

http://www.tampabay.com/news/military/macdill/centcom-war-game-sees-dire-results-of-an-israeli-first-strike-on-iran/1220857

http://coldansviewpoint.blogspot.com/2012/01/limited-warfare-with-limited-damage.html

http://coldansviewpoint.blogspot.com/2011/11/israel-s-tactical-review-combinations.html

http://coldansviewpoint.blogspot.com/2011/11/tactical-side-of-conflict-tonight-i.html

http://coldansviewpoint.blogspot.com/2011/02/options-and-consequences-of-options-if.html

http://coldansviewpoint.blogspot.com/2011/09/iran-is-not-only-factor-last-night-i.html