THE MIDDLE EAST'S VERSION OF " CHICKEN LITTLE".

If you looked at a trend in the blogs.. Open press and the general public discussions all along the Gulf region, you would find one very common theme; the never ending "rumor" of conflict between Israel and Iran and how soon it may happen.

The difference I see this time comes from those who are talking about the "rumor".

As is the case with most emotional issues, who is involved in a "rumor" is often more important than the rumor itself.

Giving creditability is a key issue and this "rumor" is gaining creditability quickly.

Two classic Middle Eastern indicators may not be the right tools to judge this "rumor" by this time around.

1. The speculative price of a barrel of oil.

Constant rumors of conflict are factored into the market right now....Something physical will need to happen and by that time the event will be underway.

2. The unavoidable buildup, mobilization process that typically takes place not just for US forces, but for Israel and "others".

As an example, Iran's" mobilization process, to some extent, is easily hidden with a series of "War Games".

A tactic we have used in the Middle East as well.

So, what makes this Middle East version of Chicken Little plausible this time around?

Syria and Israel!

Like a broken record I'm going to say it again.

Iran cannot and will not allow Syria to fall out of its sphere of influence.

A Syrian, Sunni controlled government is unacceptable to Iran.

A nuclear Iran is unacceptable to Israel............ I think?

An Arab Spring infection of Iran is unacceptable to the Iranian leadership!

The loss of Hezbollah influence in Lebanon, an Ottoman and GCC goal, is unacceptable to Iran.

For the past 10 yrs we have all sat and listen to the stories of a pending confrontation between Israel and Iran!

I know this region of the world and I know what is important to the average person on the streets of the Middle East and it is not the US economy.

We have all heard the story of the Middle Eastern Chicken Little so many times, I am afraid the public doesn't think it's worth worrying about.

I hope they are right, but I'm more and more convinced they are wrong!

I , like some of you, remember the 67 war!