TWO STORIES THAT BOTH HAVE IMPORTANT OVERTONES:

One thing the media is getting right this morning is the dangerous change
this attack on the Syrian Intelligence HQ brings to the conflict.

The Syrian Intelligence and Secret Police are placed under the title of the
Syrian Air Force as a cover story for their existence.

DEBKA is most likely correct with its assumption of Arab League and GCC
support for this dramatic step.

Assad will waste no time attempting to turn this attack into a classic, "I
told you so", response.

He will leverage the event to show he is actually fighting an armed
resistance in his country and how can he be expected not to respond?

I've noticed that most of the defected Syrian Military members are back in
civilian clothes, thus making the " hit and blend" tactic far more effective.



It will not just be Assad that reacts to this dramatic increase to conflict
in Syria. (Actually...... this is the second time the Syrian Air Force has
been attacked)


Iran will respond in some tactical way soon.

Look for the Palestinian Islamic Jihad, rocket attacks from Gaza to be an
option. ( Limited... but large enough to be a media distraction.)

The objective here will be to move the story back to the issue of Israel and the PA.

http://www.debka.com/article/21486/

Second Article:

I've been reading about this group and there is an
important issue that is lost in this commentary.

Notice how the FSA does not claim they are attacking the Syrian Military!

They are fighting the "Criminal Gangs loyal to Assad".... the Shabiha ... who
really are armed Thugs!

It's important for the FSA not be seen as a threat to the Syrian Military if
they plan on larger numbers of defections.

It's one thing to state you are only fighting the Shabiha, it's another to
insure your actual attacks and kills are not regular Syrian Military
members.. most of whom are Sunni!

The challenge for the Syrian Revolutionary Council / SRC / is they must make
every attempt to show the Arab League and the West that they can avoid a
Civil War in Syria.

Being able to control the FSA and what they target is the tactical issue the
SRC must overcome.

At the same time, Assad's Sunni Business class support is going to think long
and hard about the AL isolation of Assad.

To them, Syria is all about money and the AL in combination with the UN
isolating Assad will dramatically impact the ability to make money!

http://www.cnn.com/2011/11/16/world/meast/syria-unrest/index.html?hpt=hp_t2