PART TWO:   THE ISRAELI OPTIONS FOR IRAN

Yesterday I briefly outlined the possible Iranian, strategic concepts of a First Strike on Israel and the possible consequences of such actions.

Given the prevailing theory is Israel will strike first, let's go over what the strategic issues might be for Israel and what repercussions their actions may bring upon them and more importantly their Allies.

A LIMITED, SCALEABLE STRIKE:

First and foremost, I would be absolutely shocked to see Israel take this course of action given the fact they would be sacrificing the element of surprise,  yet limiting their impact on the Iranian nuclear facilities; it would almost seem self-defeating!

Targeting nuclear program areas that have low probability of civilian casualties, thus limiting public outcry is the main objective of a limited strike.

The ability to scale the follow on attacks after giving a warning that further attacks are ready for execution again gives Israel the option of controlling the severity  of the conflict.

The real danger with any nation contemplating such an option is suffering a disproportionate response.

Israel would have to truly gamble Iran would limit it's response based upon the "limited" attack from Israel.

In nation states where the survival of the country is not really in question, the theory of limited, scaleable attacks or counterattacks is a logical pattern.

In a nation the size of Israel, with limited abilities to survive a massive first round counterattack and yet still be able to win a decisive confrontation  this would is a dangerous gamble.

 I simply don't see this scenario taking place.

The Risk Assessment formulary will never pass the IDF's senior command.

Having said this, the one weighted factor that could influence the final decision could be the support of lack of support from Israel's Allies.

Simply put, if the US ask Israel, assuming the US would get the opportunity to ask, to limit it's attack or risk alienating it's strongest protector, Israel would have to think long and hard.

Would the US get the chance to weigh in on the issue?

At this point in time,  I don't think they will.

So, let's move on to a more plausible scenario.

A FATAL BLOW WITH A DIRE WARNING AFTERWARDS:

So much has been written about the high probability of Israel not being able to accomplish a complete destruction of the Iranian nuclear program that it's possible many in the world truly believe this statement.

I would be willing to bet you there is one nation that doesn't believe this theory to be true..... Israel!!!

Here is the technical problem with this all too common theory from the " talking heads" on TV.

Nuclear programs are incredibly expensive and complex and most of all fragile. 

The idea that every facility and every piece of equipment must be destroyed to prevent the program from being rebuilt is foolish.

What needs to be hit... what it needs to be hit with and what impact that will have to the overall program has been reviewed time and time again.

It is unrealistic to think Israel has not worked this part the attack scenario for several years now.

"Shock and Awe" is not a proprietary concept to the US.

The complex part of Israeli " Fatal Blow" First Strike is not just understanding what par

of the nuclear program must be attacked and what level of damage must be achieved.

Israel must also plan for the neutralization of Hezbollah and any other organization, such as Palestinian Islamic Jihad and this part of the attack must take place nearly simultaneously.

What resources will be used for what target is a detailed process.

Again, this is not news to Israel and you can rest assured they have this plan complete.

Stacked on top of the issues of nuclear facility targeting and neutralization operations, Israel must have a defendable... believable Public Information Operation plan ready to execute.

This message must be geared towards not just Israel's own public, but more importantly it must attempt to justify a First Strike to the rest of the world.

Now, Israeli government is realistic in it's expectations.

For a large segment of the Middle Eastern Population, the reasoning will not be heard!

What Israel must rely on is the known but seldom spoken hatred for the Iranian's by Arab Leadership.

Keeping the GCC and others limited to verbal ridicule is the real goal.

Keeping the common Arab / Muslim / populist calm is the challenge of the Arab Leadership.

Simply put, this attack will most likely explode the Arab Spring issue in places such as Egypt and Jordan.

Add to this the reaction to Hezbollah's neutralization mission that will have to take place on Lebanese soil and the issue of Second Order Effects..... Law of Unintended Consequences becomes the Delta that is simply too complex to anticipate.

Ok, lets simplfy this topic.

Israel can achieve a Fatal First Strike on the Iranian program.

The result will be an Iran that will not have the ability to rebuild a nuclear weapons program anytime in the distant future.

The Iranian Nuclear threat will be eliminated.

In the process... the Middle East will have social turmoil that could easily topple the Saudi and Jordanian governments.

The Israeli government may be tossed from power as a result as well; a possibility that I am sure has been factored into the plan.. a plan that could easily be understood by more than just one political party in Israel.

A regional war may be avoided simply because the Arabs and the Ottomans do not see value in destroying their countries over the Persians....  Somewhat the same fate the Palestinians have suffered for over 40 years.

SUMMARY:

What does Israel have to lose by going " limited"???  A lot ..perhaps too much....

What does Israel have to lose by striking a fatal blow?? 

Who is it that continues to say, "Israel's days as a nation are numbered"?

I think you get the picture.

Oh ya.. I called this option " A fatal blow with a dire warning".

In the history of Israel, the topic or recognition of it's nuclear weapons program has never been officially acknowledged. 

If this fatal blow plan somehow would go wrong.. if Hezbollah and others were able to deal a catastrophic blow to Israel... the warning of what price could be paid may very well be given.

I think that warning was given in 1973 and the two Super Powers at that time rushed to prevent a calamity.

Don't be foolish enough to think history can not repeat itself.

On Wednesday... I will look at what I consider the interesting part of this possible conflict... the tactics of how each side might execute their plan.