A QUICK CHECK OF THE SCORECARD

The next week or so is going to get fast and confusing, so let's do a quick scorecard check to remind ourselves who is looking to do what on the Palestinian Statehood issue. Think of this as a "cheatsheat".

1.  Iran:

           

            Wants the Palestinian issue to take center stage and take the world's attention off of the events in Syria.

            Willing to make this issue into a conflict with Israel if needed.

            Iran's leadership sees it's national survival at stake.

2.  Israel:

            Willing to do whatever it takes to insure the Palestinian Statehood issue doesn't     jeopardize the Israeli government.

            Will not recognize any UN vote on Palestinian statehood.

3.  US:

            Finds itself in practically a ' lose... lose" situation.

            If it Veto's the UNSC vote, violence against US Embassies is almost assured.

            Protest, for the first time in the Arab Spring, will focus on the US.

            Is seeking to pressure the Egyptian Military and Turkey to keep this event from     turning into a regional issue.

4.  Egypt:

            The Muslim Brotherhood needs the extended violence in Egypt to convince the     people they are the only path to a peaceful government.

           

            Will allow the Egyptian Military to take the blame for any actions it will be            forced into if the people riot against a US Veto.

            Worried that Turkey will take the lead in the Middle East, but the MB is going to work with the Turkish government regardless of the Egyptian Militaries stance.

            Not willing to go to war with Israel and not able to go to war with Israel, but the   MB will unleash Hamas if needed.

            Will not use Hamas against Israel if it believes Iran will benefit from the action.

5.  Turkey:

            The Islamafacation of Turkey is complete with the removal of the old General        Officers.

            Setting a course to become the dominant player in the Middle East to prove to the             EU their status.  May believe the EU is on the downward slide and thus allows         Turkey to set itself up as a true "Regional Power".

            Will not go to war with Israel over the Palestinian issue and will not allow itself to             part of an Iranian plot to counter Israel's strength.

            Turkey has everything going it's way and a regional war is not in their Master         Plan.

            Out to neutralize the " Persian Empire" dream of Iran.

Saudi:

            Teaming up with the Gulf State and Jordan as much as possible to prepare for        Iran.

            Will provide vocal support to the Palestinian statehood issue, but will not support conflict with Israel.

            To put it simply, Saudi fears Iran far more than it fears Israel.

            It's fear of Turkey is on the rise as well.

Ok, that's the down and dirty!

As things speed up over the next week or so, don't get confused by all the intellectual, academic " talking heads" who are looking to right the next book about the Middle East.

The people who are about to change the course of the Middle East are not worried about Book deals.

Keep it simple and don't overlook the " Big Picture" issues.