THE WEEK AHEAD:


Two events took place this week that are worthy of review.

SYRIA:

 The repercussions from Ambassador Ford's trip into Hama have not been witnessed yet.

 
The Iranian response, or lack thereof, is interesting.

I think the whole event caught them completely off guard.
(Would have loved to have been a fly on the wall )

The French Ambassador showing up only added fuel to the fire
and probably gave validity to Assad's 'Conspiracy' claim.

Iran will answer this event; it's just a matter of how they
do so.

 Interestingly, Turkey seems to have ' no comment' on the two Ambassador's
'visit' to Hama.

They were ether part of the plan or they were not.

My bet is they were and are part of the plan and their part was to
have no comment.

A few days ago I said  Assad, in my opinion, had no choice but to move on Hama.

I must admit, I'm not sure how he could pull that off now,
given the visit by the two Ambassadors.

I still believe Assad can't afford to have his own version
of Benghazi in Syria.

Yep; it's a mess and Assad probably has Iran very upset with
him for letting the two Ambassadors be seen in Hama.

One thing surly happened; the Syrian Muslim Brotherhood   became more embolden thanks to these two visits.

With the US announcement  of the pending discussions with the Muslim Brotherhood, I'm wondering  who the real message was for?

So, this week, look for two things.

1. Look for Assad's response to Hama and in
that response will be the reaction to the US "meddling "  in Hama.

                Does that mean he will
                punish Hama?

                I don't know that he can
                without making the decision to take the resistance  to a whole new level of violence.

2. Look for Iran to respond, perhaps
providing guidance to Assad on how to deal with   Hama.

                Oh, by the way; the Gaza Flotilla II event
                was a complete bust!

                That did not sit well with
                Iran. ( Another botched distraction)

                Iran will take that missed opportunity  into
                consideration as they decide on how to send a message to the US over the
                Ambassador Ford event.



EGYPT:

Five months ago, when the events in Egypt were finally
coming to a boiling point, I made the statement I was not sure if the people
of Egypt understood what they had achieved.

I think the Egyptian people are now very aware of what they
did and did not achieve.

They did manage to have Mubarak removed.

They did not manage to move the machine that really runs
Egypt.. The Egyptian Military!

This time around, the real change is the lack of 'trust' by
the Egyptian people with the Egyptian Military.

"Change" is a concept that usually has many different
meanings even to people who think they are in the same group.

The speed of "Change" is another concept that has many
definitions .

The young and the less educated usually believe change is a
concept based on days, weeks at the most.

The older and more educated people have been around long
enough to realize two things.

                1. "Change" doesn't always mean things are going to get better.

                2. "Change" can take years, not days, weeks or even months.

                                a. The larger the change, like the entire structure of a countries' government, is not
                                going to happen in five months, but don't tell that to the youth of Egypt!

So, what should we look for in the coming week?

Watch the Muslim Brotherhood's  actions.

From day one they realized they were not the cause of the " Arab Spring",
but they did quickly figure out how to exploit the disruption to bring about their ultimate goal of governmental change.

I am convinced the plot on their part has been to let Egypt flounder for
months and then, when the timing is right, step in and try to provide
'guidance' out of the anarchy.

It is no coincidence the MB decided to 'join', code for begin to manipulate,
the protest this week.

It is time for ' phase two' of the MB master plan in Egypt.

Yes, the youth movement inside the MB is a distraction to the ' master
plan', but that faction inside the MB is being used to their advantage.

As long as you have clueless Western Journalist talking about the "new MB"
and the youth movement inside of it and how that youth movement may
'transform' the MB, ( Insert laughter here), the real leadership of the MB will see the whole process executing according to plan.

The MB knows the next stage is very.. Very important!

They MUST get the Egyptian Public to lose faith in the Egyptian Military!

The MB cannot execute the final takeover phase until the people abandon
the military.

One of two things is going to happen if they truly start to pull their support.

                1. The Military will become violent in a desperate attempt to keep
                Egypt from falling apart. ( Smiles in Iran and Syria at that point.)

                2. The Military will make a move on the MB and risk the public
                completely falling in line with the Brotherhood.  

Everyone needs to remember.

Egypt is not Syria, Yemen, Lebanon or Bahrain.

Five months ago, the world was stunned to see Egypt fall into near anarchy.

To watch it happen again will be even more unsettling to the region.

Anarchy or near Anarchy is spelled " Opportunity" in Iran and Syria.

Yep. Iran and Assad would just love to see Egypt slip into madness.

Remember my theory about ' Distractions'.

FINAL NOTE



YEMEN:

If anyone is watching the events in Yemen, it's Saudi.

It may not happen this week, but the battle for Aden is coming and several
key countries know the implications of Aden falling into the 'wrong hands'.

It's Summer and the Arab Spring, PS.. I still call it the Tunisian Virus, is
not sizzling  out as some Western Talking Heads think.

That sizzling sound.............. is a fuse!!!