HEZBOLLAH'S BLUFF? I DON'T THINK SO!

Take the time to read this article!

I know I sound like Chicken Little, but for several months now I have been
saying Iran would not stand for the fall of Syria / Assad.

I have reiterated time and time again two main points.

1. Iran will look for a 'distraction' to prevent the collapse of
Assad. They know if he falls, the Iranian government is next.

                a. The size of this distraction will be proportional to the risk Iran
                is willing to assume.

2. Iran will not allow Hezbollah or Hamas to strike out on their own
accord.

                They are both strategic assets Iran rebuilt for the purpose of
                executing a second and third front on Israel if Iran has to go to war.

We should assume, for Hezbollah  to make the statements made in the article, they must have been given 'guidance, permission' to do so!

I do not believe this discussion was simply a matter of 'grandstanding'.

Let me make several points to show why the timing of this article is
troubling.

1. As is stated in the article, the reputation of Hezbollah is under
attack in the Arab public. Just look at the two stories published on Al
Jazeera yesterday.

                a. They are seen, as the US is, as being hypocritical  when it comes to the
                'Arab Spring'. A title they are not use to, or can ill afford.



2. The sudden 'agreement' on a Lebanese government last week was
probably a sign of the tension / pressure placed on Hezbollah by Iran.

                " We need you to get your act together and be ready, so.. get it done." (Iranian
                pressure to get moving.)



3. Hezbollah knows the STL indictments are coming and the old plan of
just blowing them off disappeared with Syria began to burn.

                a. The Author is probably correct, if you have been following the STL,
                when he states Syria may be implicated as well.

                b. The ability to keep control of Lebanon, when Syria is in a state of
                emergency is just another weight on Iranian leadership.

                c. Hezbollah is expected to keep the lid on Lebanon until the time
                Iran needs it's second front on Israel.



4. The Palestinians are beginning to side with the 'resistance' in
Syria.

                a. This is a terrifying event for Assad and Iran.

                b. The Syrian Muslim Brotherhood has their fingers in this and pulling
                the Palestinians away from the Iranian/ Syrian camp is a disaster for Iran
                and Assad. ( The 'sectarian issue is very important here.)



5. Iran sees Turkey as gaining on all fronts and a collapsed Syria
would lead to Iran making one of two decisions.

                a. Fight Turkey for the control of Syria; thus taking on a NATO country.

                                (Something Israel would love to see).

                b. Allowing Turkey to become truly the future 'regional' leader, thus
                destroying the dream of the Iranian / Persian / Empire. ( Part of the
                conflict inside Iran right now.)



6. Last, but not least, the internal conflict inside Iran.



a. The two leaders are at odds over the countries' future.

                i. One sees the next Persian Empire and one sees the Muslim Empire.

                ii. They both see the 'Arab Spring' coming!



This article and the   'threat'  it speaks to  cannot be underestimated!

The idea of this whole process not leading to a 'Regional War' is
unrealistic.

Hezbollah will not go to war with Israel without Iranian permission.

Israel gets a vote on the war being regional or not.

                Does Israel keep kicking the Iranian can down the road?

I've said it before, but I will repeat myself.

This is a very.. Very dangerous time in the Middle East.

http://www.jpost.com/MiddleEast/Article.aspx?id=226129