WHAT TO WATCH FOR THIS WEEK!

For everyone paying attention the past few days, Tunisia and Egypt, those two that have been ‘liberated’, have been anything but peaceful.

When Christians and Muslims take to the street to kill each other, and this fight was rather one sided, then I’m not sure ‘progress’ is being made.

It is typical for a period of turmoil to take place after a revolution, but that doesn’t mean every revolution leads to better government.

Egypt is up for grabs as well as Tunisia and the MB is eyeing a larger slice of the pie with each passing day.

So, lets take a look at the rather large list of issues that need to be watched for the week of  May 8^th.

EGYPT:

The interfaith violence is not new to the streets of  Egypt, but post revolution Egypt is a dangerous environment for  this current conflict.

How the interim government, the military, deals with future violence is going to be critical to possible future problems.

As I said, the MB is looking to take expand their expectations for the pending elections, but they will continue to move forward carefully.  

SYRIA:

Two days ago I posed the question of Assad pulling through this uprising?

I don’t buy the stories that some of the groups are losing their ‘momentum’.

Assad is way too far down the road of killing his own people to suddenly stand up and sounds like a reformer.

The capital is the key!

If the rebels can bring the movement there, then Assad will turn up the killing machine and that will set a much larger movement into motion.

Will Assad win?

I don’t think so, but more people are talking about him serving than in the past few days.

IRAN:

To the outside, laymen, the topic of Genies sounds a bit outrageous.

I see the Genie issue as a metaphor.

The Genie is “Nationalism” and the Supreme Council doesn’t want any part of a nationalistic / Persian movement in Iran.

Hence, the split and thus the growing conflict.

My short version, the wheels are in motion for both leaders in Iran to get in a position to survive the “virus” when it comes to Iran and it is coming!

ISRAEL:

A bad week coming up for Israel.

If Egypt actually opens the gates to Gaza, the situation there could go down hill in a FLASH!

Most people don’t expect the Hamas… Fatah love fest to last, but it may last long enough to get the PA Youth Movement marching in the streets of the West Bank and Gaza.

This is a run up week to what could be the beginning of the protest marches next week.

Watch the statement from Israel.

What they say this week will not be politically hype, but a window to where they are going.

LEBANON:

If Syria slides further down hill this week, and I think it will, then Assad may turn back to the concept of blaiming “others” such the March 14^th movement in Lebanon.

As for the Non Hezbollah side of Lebanon, the concept of pushing Hezbollah is becoming more and more obtainable given the frailty of Syria.

To put it simply, Lebanon could become a real hot spot in the next few weeks if not sooner.

OIL:

I’m far from a qualified Oil Speculator, but my guess is last weeks drop was a short-lived euphoria based on the killing of UBL.