NOW WHAT?

All day long the media has covered the death of UBL  and has done a good job of posing the real question, “what does it mean”?

Answers have ranged from his movement has been dealt a possible mortal blow to nothing will really change.

The old cliché of “only time will tell” is probably as good an answer as any.

What I’ve not heard a great deal of detail on is how  his death has tactically impacted his movement.

Lets look at a few facts about disruption operations and the second order effects they usually have.

1. Lets assume, and the press has even talked about this today, the Team that carried out the mission was able to recover valuable information from the compound.

It’s is very common for the followers or partners of a criminal movement to be  rendered ineffective for a period of time after a successful operation on one of it’s members or especially it’s leadership.

Why is this?

Simple; the other members don’t know what information was obtained and they always assume the worst!

What information did UBL have with him and do his followers know what that information was?

Criminals run paranoid and his followers are paranoid beyond belief right now.

“ I’m next”, becomes the overriding concern for all of those that were in contact with him.

Place that paranoia on top of news reports saying “actionable information was obtained from the compound” and I would bet you there is full fledge panic in many parts of the network.

This will not last forever, but it will last long enough for the agencies searching for his followers to take additional actions if at all possible.

In other words, the operation creates a limited window of additional opportunities.

That is where we stand as of today.

What follow on events or intelligence can be developed and how fast can it be analyzed?  

All of this keeps UBL’s followers off balance and on the Defense, we hope!!

After this period is over, the real issues becomes, did his network have “mission ready” operations that can be executed quickly?

It’s a question that must be part of the overall process being conducted right now.

So, did UBL have missions ready to execute and did his follower have contingency plans for his capture or death?

Again, there seem to be several theories on these two questions and opinions are all over the map.

What needs to happen is what I speculate is just what is happening right now.

We must anticipate he did have missions ready to execute or at least close enough to execution that they can be put into motion.

We must assume that some of  his network  had planned for the event of something happening  to him.

The theory of “plan for the worst and hope for the best” applies here.

This is where the paranoia factor of his followers not knowing what information was obtained from his compound comes into play.

Very well disciplined units might be able to fight off the paranoia and push to execute an attack.

That explains why the US government didn’t wait to warn everyone to be careful starting as soon as the announcement came out.

The other thing that should be considered is the traditional ‘mourning period’ for his followers.

If many of the devout believers are true to their faith, they will mourn him for several days and then set out to avenge him.

Last but surly not least, we need to think about what we commonly call the ‘ low hanging fruit’ members, or what I like to call the “ Wanna Be” groups.

Finding actionable information on a ‘lone wolf’ mental patient who is so upset over UBLs death that he or she just starts killing anyway they can is nearly impossible to do!

In reality, for the foreseeable future these are the ones to be truly worried about.

One thing is for sure; the chapter of UBL as an individual is over.

The chapter of UBL the Martyr has just started.