CRACKS  IN  THE  SYRIAN  ARMOR!

Two predictions from yesterday's post are coming true.

1. The question of 'Why Libya and Not Syria'?

Without being disrespectful to the US leadership, the answers covered in this news story are weak at best and do not speak to the real issue.

I have always believed and always will believe the truth is the only thing you can tell the American public and the truth is Syria's direct ties to Iran make it far too dangerous to even contemplate taking any type of action.

The  threat of a 'Regional War' is what would be at stake.

I am not talking about an Iraqi or Afghanistan type event , not even a Desert Storm action.

To take action against Syria would almost certainly result is a regional war that would engulf all of the Middle East and create world wide repercussions.

This would be a conflict unlike anything the world has seen since 1968, 72 or perhaps WWII.

Iran would not stand for 'Western' actions on Syria and the retaliation would certainly involve Israel and the Gulf States.

Oil production would most likely come to a standstill.

Just think of the economic repercussions of a regional war in the Middle East?

So, when the Arab world ask, "why not Syria", the answer needs to be the truth, "There is more at stake than the freedom of the Syrian, Sunni, people".

http://www.cnn.com/2011/US/04/26/u.s..libya.syria/index.html?iref=NS1

2.  Rumors of defections in the Syrian military.

As I said last night, I seriously doubt the Syrian military, mostly made up of Sunni members, will open murder the public, Sunni, of Syria.

Assad and Iran know this and how they deal with it is a real concern.

It's one of the key reasons the West can hold off on even contemplating 'action' against Syria.

One true statement in the report mention above is the fact that things are not totally out of control, yet!

http://www.cnn.com/2011/WORLD/meast/04/25/syria.security.forces/index.html      

Another aspect of the Syrian military actions that cannot be overlooked is the possible mobilizatoin process.

The fact the Syrian Military is being utilized to some degree in response to civil unrest does not mean the entire 'machine' is being spun up!

The West and Israel is paying very close attention to what parts of the military are being utilized and what parts are being placed in ready status.

If part of the Syrian, Iranian plan to deal with this uprising is to prepare for a greater conflict, then parts of both militaries will be making preparations.

The good news is, this is very hard to do without the US and others recognizing what is going on.

Trust me, this issue is going to be watched very carefully.

Conclusion:

Syria's indicator needle is pointing down and moving towards pointing straight down!

Keep an eye on the stories of 'defections' over the next two or three days and be paying very close attention to what Friday afternoon, our time, brings to the news.

The US media is starting to catch on how important Syria is to the great Middle East issue and I am willing to bet the attention is going to shift more and more.

Iran really needs that ' distraction event' I have been predicting!