THINK THE MAD DOG CAN KILL PEOPLE? LOOK AT SYRIA'S HISTORY!
If logic and history follows, we should be attempting a " No Fly Zone" over Syria in about two weeks!!
Yes, I am being facetious, or I hope I'm being facetious!!
I will not comment on what actions the US takes and I will not second guess or nation's leadership, but I doubt that professional attitude will hold with the rest of the public.
Let me get to my point.
In 1982, the Syrian Government slaughtered over 20,000 people in their last real uprising.
Syria is, as I have been saying all along, in real.... real ... trouble!
The actions of the old Syrian Government will not garner the same response of the free world if the current Syrian leadership tries to repeat history.
Syria understands this, yet they are as desperate as they were in 1982, if not more so.
The 'Cold War' is no longer the 'glue' that holds the Middle East together.
The fear of Super Power conflict is not the counterweight to idiot dictators it use to be.
Having said this, Syria is desperate to keep the 'Tunisian Virus' from spreading any further.
The options of the Government are few and they will not like any of them.
1. Step down . OUT OF THE QUESTION!
2. Turn into a Civil War. Hard to do when over 90 percent of your military forces are made up of Sunni young men. A HUGE problem and Syria knows it.
3. Ask for help! Interesting twist to this logic put out by DEBKA ( www.debka.com) today.
A great place to find simple facts about the status of the Middle East.
http://www.debka.com/article/20803/
4. Turn up the heat somewhere else! I actually beat DEBKA to this theory a few weeks ago, so that gives me the right to talk to this point.
A. To use Hamas and Hezbollah without the permission of Iran would be a real crack in the Alliance between Syria and Iran.
B. Iran still intends to keep Hamas and Hezbollah as proxy war-fighter options in case they have to go to war with Israel.
C. Iran could support the concept of a limited action by their puppet Armies if they believe the Syrian situation is getting out of hand. HINT .... IT IS!!
So, What do I think is about to happen?
I cannot over emphasize how dangerous the events in Syria truly are!
As DEBKA stated at the end of their article, it is not out of the question option number four is chosen.
I believe they will go with option four.
To do this they will have to get permission, guidance from Iran.
Iran will give the green / red light.
If Iran refuses Syria's request, and I don't think they will, then Syria has yet another HUGE decision to make.
Heed their 'Master's' guidance and do as Iran tells them, or ignore Iran and strike out on their own.
Assad has given the idea of breaking away from Iran some thought in the past two years, but not any real serious thought.
That may be about to change.
The next few days are going to be a simmering time for the Middle East and especially Israel.
One thing I will be watching that I have been curious about for several years is the issue of who really 'calls the ball' when it comes to Hamas and Hezbollah?
When push comes to shove, who does Hamas and Hezbollah listen to? Iran / Syria?
Can we be about to see a conflict / split / between not only Iran and Syria but Hamas and Hezbollah?
It's going to be a very interesting coming week.
No comments:
Post a Comment