COVID-19

IF IT ALL BREAKS DOWN

Over the past few months, I've touched on the topic of how fragile how life has become in a complex society. I've addressed it over mass migration issues, the division of social norms inside a nation like the US, and finally, I recently addressed the topic over the issue of COVID-19. Here is the problem. This topic is not being discussed enough by federal, state, and local governments. Everyone seems to want to talk about what it takes to keep from getting sick, what to do if you get sick, and finally, just how bad this outbreak might get. Again, the problem is, no one seems to talk about the ugly issue, the breakdown of social order. Zombies? No. The loss of Critical Infrastructure, at least to the point of panicking failure? Yes. So, here I go again, only this time, I'm going to give you the down and dirty of what the media seems to be pushing us towards. If some of this sounds familiar, I apologize upfront but trust me, this version of the story is one I've not spent a lot of time on. By the way, if you ask if I know this topic, you don't want to know how well and why. Hush Connie:) 

Levels of failure:

Does it take a true disaster, emergency to send people into a panic? Did you read my post from the other day on the similarities between cattle and people? 

https://www.blogger.com/blogger.g?blogID=7459309648379320825#editor/target=post;postID=4216488578586100482;onPublishedMenu=allposts;onClosedMenu=allposts;postNum=4;src=postname

Short version. People can panic and the notion of a rumor. The good news is, the percentage of those who panic on a simple rumor is minimal, that is until the rumor begins to have visual support. Like most emergencies, panic typically starts out low but grows based upon the level of validity. Here is an example. 

Rumor: the Virus is in your area. 

Action: Some percentage of people begin to take additional measures. 

Rumor confirmed by authorities: The percentage of people taking some level of activity increases, but still at a rate that is considered proportional. 

Visual confirmation by the public:  Schools closed, business told to work from home, ect...ect. The public continues to increase their reaction, and at this point, governance begins to see the results or impacts. 

Leadership walks back previous information: CDC releases someone they said was not infected, but then has to admit they were and that person had been released back into the public. https://thehill.com/policy/healthcare/485771-texas-lawmakers-call-for-investigation-into-cdcs-handling-of-released-a The public begins to doubt governance's guidance. Rumors move quicker and have a larger impact. 

Other Areas show dramatic impact:  News clips of empty malls in California, England, Europe. People who have been on the sidelines of reaction, now begin to take measures. The percentage of those seeking action increases to over fifty percent. Those who casually go to the store, see the impact and add on to the hoarding process. 

Stories of shortages: This is where the cattle analysis truly sets in. People here and see shortages stories and go back to buy even more of what they think maybe about to disappear. Runs on stores are shown on all media outlets. The number of those now actively involved in the panic events is nearly 100 percent. 

Here is the scary part. What one of these steps have you not witnessed yet? Here is another ugly fact. The "smart" panic buyers, don't let anyone know they are doing it! 

At this point, we are still only talking about "preventive/proactive / events. What comes next is the real issue. What happens next is where the wheels start to come off of "normal" society. 

Infrastructure / First Responders: 

Firefighters being told to stay home because they are sick. Confirmed? Maybe not, but told to stay home anyway. " The worried Sick." A concept I've talked about before, but you may want to look it up again. The sewer plant that truly only has five people who know how to keep it functional. The rest of the staff have no clue. That's a typical scenario in the US and other parts of the world. One guy stays home, "sick," and the rest think, uh oh, did I touch anything he was working on yesterday?  " I don't want to take a chance, and I've got sick days. The heck with it, I'm calling in sick until I find out what was wrong with Bob!" Sound crazy? You better not think so. 

Police and EMS get a call to a guy lying on the street. He's been sick for two days, and now he is unconscious. " Dude. Did you make that call to the guy on the sidewalk yesterday? You heard he died today from the Virus? Hey. Why don't you go home for a few days and just to make sure?"  Yep. Don't believe me? Take a look at Iran as of today. Better yet, look at China's Police and EMS. They look like Chemical Warfare soldiers. 

Someone calls 9-11. The dispatcher informs the caller it may be an hour or more before someone makes the scene given the shortages.  Sound crazy? Okay, just keep thinking that way. Let me ask you something. What percentage of the First Responder Force needs to not be at work before the entire community begins to feel the impact? Do you have any idea? Have you ever asked?

How visual does the change to day to day life have to be before people begin to change all of their daily routines? Hundreds of millions of people in China staying off the streets. Industry at a standstill. China is pushing its way through this crisis, but they are far from clear from the danger. The rest of the world is seeing a giant virus bug behind every tree. Worse, many of them actually have that bug inside their society. Each nation, each state, each community is unique; trust me, I know! Some cookie-cutter response is not going to keep the people from panic. 

Just in Time Inventory Management:  

A day or two ago, I addressed the hidden danger of a "Global Economy." Let me touch upon another topic that corporations have lived by for two decades now. " Just in Time Inventory Management." If you have not heard of it, here you go. https://www.manufacturing.net/home/article/13240406/justintime-inventory-management-and-how-it-affects-cost

Hurricanes. That was the crisis that showed the US the dangers of " Just in Time Inventory Management. My story? Well, it had to do with thousands of people running out of gas as they attempted to get away from Hurricane Rita. My story? Someone telling me, " YOU HAVE TO GET FUEL TO THOSE PEOPLE OR THEY WILL DROWN!"  Yep. I've been down that road, pardon the pun. Here is my point, the ability of modern society to empty the stores is already a given. The issue that most people don't comprehend is when those who restock the stores don't show up or don't have anything to restock with. Let this virus story continue to get worse, both physically with the spread of the illness, and the fear of pending danger and the topic of nationwide shortages will be a reality in no time. 

The Haves and the Have-nots: 

Are large cities able to support themselves? What happens when stories run out of essentials? Do people get in their cars and drive to stores they believe may still have goods? Yep. Does that work? Nope! Does that make the crisis worse? Yep. Again, if you have ever been near a large Hurricane landfall area, you know what I am talking about. Cities; the land of glitter and glamor becomes the Zombie Zone! Did it happen in China? Nope. Why? Well, in a nation where you don't obey leads to being shot dead, it's not too hard to keep people in line. Let them see the first few bodies hit the street, and the fear of the virus goes away. In China, the fear of authority is absolute. You may get sick, but you will be shot! That's how you hold a society together, one that is on the edge of falling apart. Fear! Are we heading in that direction, outside of China? Iran is already there. Here is the other reality check. As things get worse, people stop caring about what is happening somewhere else. First, it's, " I don't care about China or Iran." Then it becomes, " I don't care about California or New York." Then, " I don't care about Travis County." Then, finally, " I don't care about my next-door neighbor." Sound too dramatic? Have you ever known something is about to kill you? If not, you have no idea of the human instinct to survive. 

Wrap: 

Look. I know this has been a melodramatic post. I realize some will read it and say, "what a fear-mongering flake." Here is the issue. I'm not the one driving this virus story into everyone's head. As a matter of fact, I'm one of those who have been saying, stop with the media-driven hype. The truth is, people seem to love this story. They seem to get a thrill from reading about the increasing number of sick people. Never mind the recovery rate is soaring; people love a crisis and guess what, so does the media and politicians. Nope. I'm not here to scare you. I simply want everyone to understand what they are heading into if they don't take a breath. Spook the people too much, and the stampede gets to the point, people run past the bullets. Everything will still work. It will be the people who have broken the society made of fine crystal.