CORONAVIRUS
What the facts mean.
The world continues to talk more and more about the Coronavirus? Why? Is the virus a true threat to mankind? Should be wall be ready to seal our doors and hide in our homes? As a person who has worked Pandemic planning, it's important to remember one key issue. Do NOT get your perceptions of this event from the media, to include social media. In the US, the Center for Dease Control / CDC/ has an excellent website already running for this event. For the rest of the world, The World Health Organization/ WHO/ is doing the same. For the people of China, well, you have a problem! Not only are you in ground zero, you have a leader who is more concerned about the image of China than saving a few elderly people in remote areas. The fact of the matter is the image of China as the next global leader rest with how this pandemic, and it is a pandemic, event unfolds. Can Xi show the world China can deal with such an event? What happens if China fails, besides an untold number of people dying across the globe? Can Xi keep China from taking the blame? Can Xi keep China from falling back into the image of a nation that is nothing more than a few modern cities with the other BILLION people living in medieval times? Yes, folks, the virus threat is one issue, but to Xi, his place in history may become based upon something he never dreamed of; The leader who allowed the world to suffer a Pandemic.
The Facts:
Let me jump off of the Xi's image issue and concentrate on a few problems that the media loves to scare the public with. Why does the media do this? Simple, sponsors love high volume audiences, so sensational stories get people to read and watch. Yep, it's about the money!
Human to Human:
Is this new virus, "Human to human"? According to the CDC and WHO, they see no signs of that being a factual statement, yet and I want to emphasize the word "yet." The truth is, they are quietly worried the indicators show it to be human to human, but saying that officially is a very.....very...geopolitical process. If it is declared to be human to human, the next question becomes lethality rates.
How deadly:
What I read this morning was somewhat disturbing compared to my impressions only two days ago. It was reported 800 confirmed cases, with 30 fatalities. Now, when it comes to the issue of lethality rates, you need to stick to the details. 1. At this time, a few important caveats, it appears only 25% of those who do become infected and categorized as severe. 2. The majority of the fatalities have come from people who were already in some state of compromise health-wise. So, when you put this all together, it sounds like a mild flu season. Here is the catch. Viruses mutate, and the more people who become sick, the more options the virus has to mutate into some more deadly form. Look up the Flu of 1918. The second real caveat comes from the fact this virus has no effective vaccination, and that makes it a very serious issue if the lethality rate jumps. One last fact. Viruses are unsuccessful if they mutate into something that kills their host. They burn out.
Worried Sick:
Once the people hear enough about a virus, they begin to think they may have it. We called this phenomenon the "Worried Sick." Show enough videos of overrun hospitals, airports filled with people wearing masks and media stories about "rumors," and the worried sick phenomenon takes hold. If you are paying attention to the news out of China, this event is already in full swing. If medical teams don't have a sound plan or just don't follow that plan, they run themselves into the ground, and the facility becomes ineffective. This is also taking place in China. As I write this post, the images of this happening in China are all over social media.
Containment / Incubation:
Are the sick contagious prior to showing signs of being sick? Contagion before symptomatic that is the real big problem with this new virus. If someone is contagious but not showing signs of being sick, then they can travel to any part of the world. This is almost always how viruses spread from their point of origin. China understood this, and this reality was most likely one of the key factors in why these closed off the cities infected. Does it work? Rarely! Containment is, in my experience, one of the most ineffective ways to contain the event. What this tactic is very successful at is reducing the number of people who may continue to spread the virus. That is why the measure is taken. Short answer; containment slows the fight; it doesn't defeat the enemy. Two things to watch for are the WHO announcing the incubation to contagious ratio and the contagious to the symptomatic period.
The danger of Perceptions:
There is one thing it seems the media cannot control. They can't stop playing the "What if" game.
What if the virus goes super killer? What if we can't find a vaccine..what if....what if...? Let the media keep this dangerous game up, and the next thing you know, panic is the order of the day. People make a run on the stores, gas, medicines ect....ect ...ect. Here is the really sick part, the media then turns that panic into the lead story. Don't believe me? Have you ever seen the news when a large Hurricane is about to hit? At that point, the "worried sick" at medical facilities turn into a mob. Everyone wants something, and they want it now! It's this false reality the world can quickly fall into that worries me, and I know it concerns many governments. It's the reason they become reluctant to give out potential bad news, and once the media senses government has taken that approach, they move the crisis into the next phase; "the government is withholding information."
When I worked the Bird Flu scare, I was amazed at just how fast social order could breakdown. I had just returned from the Middle East, and I didn't understand civilian planning. Once I was exposed to the complexities of how day to day life works, it became clear to me just how fragile the system was. The one concept I was familiar with was this; failures taking place at the most simplistic levels almost always lead to a much larger disaster. Complex societies are incredibly dependent on normality. Let people become panicked, and disruption takes place almost immediately. Again, Hurricanes are a prime example, but on a much smaller scale compared to pandemics.
Look, the fact is, this new virus may or may not be the killer the experts have been warning of, but one issue is clear. In a world of instantaneous communications,24/7/365/ with a global audience of 3 to 4 BILLION, perceptions form reality. Can we scare ourselves into a real crisis? With the Bird Flu and Swine Flu incidents a few years ago, I've witnessed US leadership coming so close to panic. Where is this all heading? Can we allow social media, reluctant governments, profit-driven media outlets to shape the reality we must all live in? Let me give you an alternative. Let me give you the best advice I can.
My Advice:
1. Pay attention to the official statements by the WHO and in the US, the CDC. Follow their social media and websites. Turn off any news story about panic and "what if" discussions.
2. Know your local plan, even if you think it may not be followed in a crisis, not it. In the US, that means your local, state health websites. Look for the topic of pandemic planning. Search for keywords such as Strategic National Stockpile, distribution points, social distancing.
3. Know your national plan. In the US. Here is the site you need to take the time to read.
Here is the link to the CDC's tracking of the current virus event.
For those outside the US, here is the link to the World Health Organization's tracking site.
Finally, it's essential to not be confused by the media. Know the facts, follow the facts, and know the plan. When you know the plan, you can build your own plan.
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