CHINA AND THE UNAVOIDABLE WAR

I read the article, link attached at the end,  and before I get started, let me just say what a joy it was to finally find out who has been writing some of the better stories for Asia Times. Yes I know, all I had to do is look at the bottom of the articles and I would have learned of Grant Newsham months ago. Having admitted my oversight, it’s now evident Grant is a person worth paying attention to. 

After I finished his story on a war between Taiwan and China, my most resounding fear came back to me. Folks, the US, and whoever else wishes to fight, has a war coming and it’s unlike any war we have seen in the history of the human race. How does it start? I took a shot at that topic in my book,  https://www.amazon.com/SECOND-DARK-AGES-unofficial-Review-ebook/dp/B07YP1LTYM 

What Grant Newsham has accomplished ,so brilliantly, is to provide a realistic glimpse at yet another scenario, leading to a war with China. So, before I dive into this post, let me just say, if you don’t read Grant Newsham’s work, you need to. 

Taiwan: 

I’ve asked this question before on this blog site, but let me ask it again. Is the US willing to fight a war over Taiwan? Newsham paints a very realistic picture of what might force the US and others to enter such a war, but would the people truly follow the government’s lead? When the US entered World War I and II, the nation was divided and as such, it’s logical to assume the US would take on a war with China even with the US population was against the conflict. It’s happened before.

Here is the reality Grant Newsham brings home. Wars don’t just start because both sides decide to have a fight. Most wars start when one side decides they see an advantage from war or they see no option but war. Hint,  the advantage scenario almost always has not negotiation period, or such a period does take place and the passive approach by the opposition emboldens the aggressor. Think about that approach for a minuet and then say the word, Tehran.

Yes, the other side of a conflict has the option of just saying no to the fight and letting the aggressor take what it wants. Grant address this scenario over the issue of Taiwan and does so with dire results. He also brought an issue to the table that cannot be overlooked. I is not afraid to go to war. He and his military commanders may even desire some event that sends a message to the world, “ We have taken the lead”! When Grant mentions Xi’s comments in January of 2019 ,the argument over what stance China is taking is over. I remember reading the translation of that speech and thinking to myself, “here they come”.  Would China start a war over Taiwan? The answer is most likely, yes.

Fight now or fight later: 

If we accept the theory China would be willing to fight a war over Taiwan, a war that could lead to a global war, then shouldn’t we pick the time of that event? If you read my book, you now my theory. The West simply keeps kicking the China conflict down the road until it’s too late. When Grant Newsham argues there is mostly likely no way to avoid this fight, then we need to consider exactly what that means. His recommendation the US and others stand up to China now is exactly the right approach. Here is the fatal flaw in Grant’s statement. The current leadership in DC is too consumed with internal politics to find the unity required to address the China crisis. In the Western corporate world, there is only one goal, breaking into the 1.5 BILLION persons market China represents. Thinking of or even planning for a conflict is not on the radar of those who pay for the political campaigns in the US.

As I said before, Grant Newsham hit’s the nails on the head when he states many in China are itching to show their might to the rest of the world. Nationalism runs high in parts of China, not all parts, but some. This nationalistic stance is spearheaded by Xi’s and many of his military commanders. Folks, that is a recipe for war. So, in the case of Taiwan, here is the ground truth. China is willing to go to war over Taiwan. Taiwan just reflected a President, Thai Ingwen, who demands, “Mainland China” respect Taiwan’s independence. Does this sound like the unloveable object headed towards the unstable object? A little good news here. This story has been going on for a few decades. Did I call that good news? Let me be honest, it may not be good news. The, “ Ah....it’s been going on for ever.....they always talk that way”, viewpoint is another key ingredient for war. China has changed. It’s military has changed drastically. The old, “ ah....bla...bla...bla”, theory is just plain dangerous.

Is there a good time to have a war, a war that could go nuclear? The realty is, the answer is yes. If you look at history, many conflict have started based upon the concept of, “ if we don’t fight them now, we cannot beat them later”. Paradoxically, the two greatest wars of the human race were the result of Progressives simply not wanting to take the hard road to lasting peace. FDR, the King of the Progressive movement, avoided entering WWII and he avoided taking hard actions against the rising power of the Nazis. It wasn’t just FDR. All of Europe wanted to avoid yet another war in Europe and besides, the German build up in the 30s was good for business. Sound familiar? Pay attention to Newsham’s comment about US CEOs.

You can’t wish bad times away. You cant make aggressive leaders and nations into pacifist with nothing more than words. Please, don’t get me started by suggesting economic sanctions can do the job. Take a look at the relationship between Japan and the US In the 1930s. How did that work out? You can make bad leaders and bad times go away with words, but you can use certain words to make sure these people understand where you stand. Newsham is correct in his statement the US should make it clear to China what the US is willing to do if China starts a war anywhere. Stand right in Xi’s face now, while he may still flinch, at least for a few years, or simply anticipate the time is coming when he and his nation will care less if someone stands in their face. Trump’s arm sales to Taiwan, that’s standing in Xi’s face. to the Telatubbies of the Left, that’s the actions of a crazy man and the Dragon, well, I would be it loves the taste of Teletubbies. Susan Thornton, that’s just one of the Teletubbies Newsham makes an exemplar of. Hard times folks. Hard times with no easy answers.

Cracks in the Armor:

I’m fairly certain I’ve gone down this next road before, but here we go.  Just how Nationalistic is China? Just how willing are 1.5 Billion people to go to war, a war that could set China back hundreds of years? Does Xi avoid the Taiwan, US, issue because he fears the public’s wrath? No. So, is the support of the Chinese People an issue that may prevent a war? Xi dosn’t fear the opinion people now, but how about in the future, the near future? Why is the issue of protest in Hong Kong so troublesome to Xi? Why not just go in and crush the issue? Newsham made a comment about ramifications on a global scale if China attacks Taiwan, more importantly, he mentioned something Xi will not admit. China has a growing population of people who have grown addicted to the Capitalistic  lifestyle. Yes, forty years ago, China set out to turn the Capitalistic concept into a weapon. They witnessed the flaws of true Communism, if it was true, in the Soviet Union. The plan became, “use the Western economy and our controlled involvement, to get the world addicted to China and it’s goods”. That planned worked too well. The leadership in Beijing moved so close to the flame of the West, some of the people in China turned into the Capitalistic  Colonialists China despised. Yes folks, there is a virus growing in China. It may be weak, but it continues to mutate and at some point, it will become deadly to Xi and his vision. Remember. I was the one who stated the Arab Spring was a virus. Freedom of thought, freedom of movement and freedom of expression, these are the foundations of humans. The US Founding Fathers got it right and Xi how’s this. China has cracks in it’s armor. They may not change the course of the nation in the near future, but the trend is there and it’s based on something Xi cannons afford to stop; money! China used the weapon of an open market to trap corporate America and others, and it worked. But, when they developed that “virus” they didn’t realize the most common theme of Science Fiction movies. The “Virus” was exposed to it’s own population. What does this mean? How does this explanation of China’s mistake impact a potential war with the US and others? Sorry, here is where the news gets real bad. The one person who knows the Virus is spreading inside of China’s population is Xi and his commanders. In reality, many of his own military’s senior leadership have already been infected. Time is not on Xi’s side. Waiting for Trump to leave office is not the answer. Waiting until the Chinese military is so superior to the US is a timeline too long. The clock is ticking and Xi knows it. Sometimes, you just have to fight! The trick is, be ready for that fight. Don’t be Neville Chamberlain, for that is what Xi is counting on. Stand up...get in his face before it’s too late.




https://www.jpolrisk.com/war-in-the-taiwan-strait-is-not-unthinkable-some-will-lose-more-than-others/

MEXICO. 

IT’S NOT OFF THE RADAR. 

If you follow me, you know my desire to continually asses the stability of Mexico? Why? If the US wants to witness a true Mass Migration, just let Mexico become a true failed state. I’ve been addressing the events in the Middle East for the past week or so, but something just told me I needed to get back on the topic of Mexico. The day to day violence is almost so common place, no one pays attention, with the exception of my friend Jaeson Jones. Whatever it was that compelled me to swing back to my topic of desire must have had good intel. As soon as I checked my standard reading sites, the issue of what I should write towards just about knocked me out of my chair. So, here we go! 

Changing the System: 

It appears Mexico is once again attempting to find a new approach to it’s ever growing violence levels. Has this concept of, “ changing the system”, been tried before? Yep. In fact, every Mexican President in the past 20 years has found a way to, “change the system”, in an effort to make Mexico safer. How many have succeeded? You know the answer. Alright, let me give you a list of the latest changes Mexico City is going to institute. Hint; one of them is more frightening than the rest and I bet you can figure out which one that might be:  ).

1. Mexico is going to change the, “ Culture of Impunity”. My question; whose “Culture”? The political elite who laundry the drug money? Ya...right! 

2. AMENDING THE CONSTITUTION!     How. Now that’s a question the Mexican people may want greater detail on prior to the vote. Will that happen? Don’t hold your breath. 

3. A new criminal code: Wait...what? A new criminal code or amendments to the existing one? The press release said, “ A new criminal code”. Again, do you think the people of Mexico might want to know what “new” criminal code they are going to live under? 

4. New Procedures: That makes sense. If you are going to have a new criminal code, you will most likely need new procedures. Here is one they might want to try. Validate the Law Enforcement agencies. I know, that’s a stretch. Besides, what good are honest Cops when you have a corrupt legal system and government? Maybe that new criminal code will fix that. By the way, do any of the US citizens know how much money was wasted on the programed called the Merida Initiative? Now there was an attempt at “change” in Mexico. 

5. Modify existing laws: Strange. If you have a new criminal code, do you need “modified laws”? What laws will be modified? What are those modifications? Yep. The Mexican people issue agin. 

6. Change the legal framework of the Mexican Attorney General’s Office, to include, “regulations”.  You know, but his point, doesn’t it seem like AMLO is just tying to start all over? Clear the chalkboard and start fresh. Then again, he is a self proclaimed “Revolutionary”. Perhaps this is the next phase of his grand plan for Mexico? Scary? You bet, especially for the Mexican people. 

Well, there you have it. A comprehensive list of all the changes Mexico City is going to implement, all in the name of keeping the people safe. History is excellent teacher. How many tyrannical leaders have implemented vast changes all in the name of, “The people”? 

A few hard facts: 

Mexico’s stability; that’s my point of analysis. What are the indicators that Mexico may fall into a real crisis? When you get into this business, you have one real tool that never seems to fail you. Trends! Trends are events based on facts, facts most governments hate to be seen by their public and facts that make it impossible to come up with yet another political talking point. Here are a few facts that I tracked for Mexico. Here are some numbers no one in Mexico City can sweep under the rug. 

1. The Murder rate in Mexico in 2019 was a record? The first full year of AMLO’s leadership lead to a Murder record! Now there is a fact AMLO would have loved to made go away. Unless, and this is a real concern, unless he needs that level of crisis to implement the real changes his revolutionary vision calls for. Changes to the Constitution? That one really bothers me. 

2. 61K people missing! Let me say that again. 61K people missing. You keep hearing about these unmarked grave sites the Mexican authorities keep finding. Let’s face it; it’s hard to stick a shovel in the ground and not hit a body in Mexico! 61K missing. Let’s go back to my statement about governments trying to paint pictures that avoid the facts. 61K is 50% higher than what AMLO’s government estimated. 50%. what was their, “estimate” based on, other than political posturing? 

3. The, “blame the other guy”, story is back out in Mexico. Calderon turned the Mexican military lose in 2006 and the poor little cartels became fragmented and that lead to all this violence. Really? I am aware Mexico Cities real desire is to have one cartel rule the roost and then task them with keeping all the others in line, along with filling off shore politicians bank accounts. So when President Calderon sicked the military on the cartel his administration was not aligned with, that’s when all hell broke lose? Once again, Mexico City has to divert the facts. 

4. Mexico Economy. Negative growth again and it’s been that way all the way through the first year of Mr. AMLO. Is that the plan? Social disorder and economic ruin = Revolution? 

Okay, let me Summarize. Murder is up....way up. All the laws and rules are changing. The economy is in the tank. What a fist year for Mr. AMLO. Those daily love in press conferences don’t seem to be doing the job. In the meantime, those members of the military and law enforcement who haven’t taken the peso from the cartels, hang their. Necks out there 24 /7/ 365....for now!   The Mexican people struggle to get to work and get paid all while Mexico City finds new ways to make life worse for the sake of, “the people”. 

Tomorrow I jump on AMLO’s actions with those nations that don’t send holiday greetings to Team Trump.  His desires for the future of Mexico better become the topic of conversation in DC or states like Texas will build their own wall and Nancy, well, she can just go back to her multimillion dollar vineyard in California.  Back on the Mexico issue folks. That’s where I’m heading. That is, unless, someone in the Middle East gets blown up again! 

 TRUMP TWEETS THE IRANIAN PUBLIC 

Last week I mentioned it was noteworthy how President Trump ended his address to the nation over the attack on US facilities in Iraq with a statement to the “Iranian people”. I commented on how this, “reach out” would be perceived in Tehran. If you didn’t read the blog post I am referring to, then let me give you a cheat sheet version. Reaching out to the Iranian public, in the minds of Iranian leadership, is tantamount to using a different weapon system; the weapon of Information Operations or, the old terminology, Phycological Warfare. Yep, in the minds of Iranian leadership, the US President attacked then with his words. What Team Khamenei heard in those closing words from the US President was, “ Rise up against Tehran and you will find a new and wonderful place in this world”. Within days of those closing remarks, the youth of Iran, to some degree, was back on the streets, protesting a corrupt government. Who does Team Khamenei hold responsible for this latest round of civic unrest? You know who. More importantly, was that the intent of the the President Trump? Absolutely! Given Tehran sees these statements by Team Trump as a weapon attack, are there consequences? Yep. 

The Shoot down: 

Why did the average person on the streets of Iran become so upset with the “accidental” , incompetent, downing of the Ukrainian airliner?  Was it because Iranian’s were onboard? Not really. Was that enough to send the people into the streets? What the shooting down of the airliner was is simple. It was just another example of how tired the Iranian people are of their government. During the funeral spectacle for Soleimani, I kept mentioning how the photographs told the real story. The lack of the youth of Iran taking part in the whole event was telling. Yes, family members of the military and the Basij members flooded the streets, but the faces were dramatically different than those who protested the downing of the passenger jet. To put it another way, one crowd was based on those who live under the oppression of Tehran and the other was made up of those who live life well thanks to Tehran. A nation divided? You bet. A divide that could destabilize Tehran? That’s the plan and President Trump’s final statement we are talking about, well, that’s part of the plan. 

Consequences:

I know I have addressed this issue before, but everyone one needs to understand, when you use a “weapon” you will almost always be responded to by a weapon. Tehran sees President Trump’s words as a weapon, a weapon Tehran cannot use in response, well, with the exception of the opposition party in the US. Come to think of it, the party politics in the US is a powerful weapon for Team Khamenei. Anyway, my point is this, Tehran sees these protest by their people as being exploited by the US. Team Khamenei understands the weapon being used against them and that has only one outcome, well, two. 1. Counter the attack with weapons of your own, the militias and other proxy fighters. 2. Suppress the weapon system being used by the enemy. How does Tehran do that? They already have been. Those 1500 massacred people in Iran, that’s Tehran’s version of weapon’s suppression. In the end, what Team Khamenei believes is that Team Trump is out or regime change in Iran and even though Team Trump says they are not in favor of “Regime Change”, it’s obvious, to Tehran and others, they are absolutely  in favor of such an outcome. The trick becomes, how the change comes about? 

Regime Change: Version 2.0:

To the US NEOCONs, what does regime change imply? Some would say, the spreading of Democracy. Others would counter with, contracts, billions of government dollars and profit margins that are unmatched. Who has the right definition? I will let you be the judge, but look at the amount of money spent in Afghanistan and Iraq. 

It’s 2020 and the tools of regime change, well, they need change as well. Can you get the people of a nation to bring about regime change? Have we forgotten the Arab Spring? Was not social uprising the cornerstone of Communism? What is the Anarchist plan for bringing down governance? Look, using the public to bring about change is nothing new. Making regime change into an industry, well, that was some twist to the  process that started after the last two world wars. What’s the saying, 

“ Capitalist based Democracies don’t go to war with each other”? Sounds great and it’s a great excuse for occupying a defeated enemies land. At the end of the day, regime change has gone from a way of insuring one’s enemies now longer have the ability to threaten you, to finding a way to make a lot of money, post conflict. Does the US and the West need regime change in Iran? Yes, but it needs to be based on eliminating a potential threat. By the way, I really can’t stand all this talk about, “Eminent”. Soleimani was or was not posing an, “eminent” threat? Why in the name of anything that is based on logic would anyone wait until a threat, a deadly threat, is “eminent”? This whole “ Eminent” issue is complete hogwash. Tell the owner of the threat one time, “ stop of suffer the consequences”. If that doesn’t work, strike and strike so hard the others watching lose the desire to even appear to pose a threat. If you get stuck on, “ well, that takes away the ability to negotiate peacefully”, than you will become the victim. Not liking the way someone is doing something is far different than realizing they are preparing to do you harm. Understand the difference or go work for the Department of State or UN. 

Are there dangers in relying on the public to bring about regime change? Ask the people who started the revolution against Shah in Iran. Hint, it was not the Islamic Revolution. Yes, as I have said before,  movements are often highjacked. If the US President is successful in getting the youth of Iran to remove Team Khamenei, what comes next? This is the point where the NEOCONs try to make their money. “ If you just let the country fall into turmoil, something worse might take over”. A great pitch for sticking your fingers into a nation in crisis, but is it true. When the colonial powers in Africa pulled out, most of Africa fell into crisis. The Cold War inflamed this crisis, but at the end of the day, what is the threat to the stability of the US from this enduring African crisis? Human waves you say. Mass migrations into Europe? Wait. Has someone used this uncontrolled population weapon against us? Has the prophecy of the NEOCONs come true? Look, toppling a government by using that government’s own population against them is noting new. Worrying that you might make things worse, that’s usually the mindset of academics and Progressives. If Team Trump is taking the 2.O version of regime change as the course of action in Iran, then let’s see if it works. Does someone else control Iran when it’s all said and done? Take the proxy state away from Moscow? Good luck. At the end of the day, if Iran’s military is no longer a threat to the US, than should we really care what comes next? The message is simple, “ threaten me and I will strike you down”. Rebuilding, changing the culture of a region that is 5,000 years old, let that be the vision of someone else. Let Tehran become peaceful and the worries are over. Let Tehran continue to threaten others and those weapons on two feet will just keep coming.  Not an easy answer here, but then again, few answers to complex issues are ever easy. 

THE INTENDED MISS STORY

DOES IT STACK UP?

It’s been several days since the attack on the airfields in Iraq, but something still bothers me and bothers me deeply. “The Iranians deliberately avoided US casualties”. That’s the story everyone in the US and Europe is made to understand and most accept it. Not me. I’m writing my post today to challenged this group think. I’ll admit, I too accepted this approach to the crisis, in the beginning, but as I heard the statements coming out of Tehran, I began to wonder. Yes, Team Khamenei is notorious for colorful threats, but when I read an unclassified story on the initial BDA, Battle Damage Assessment, I began to doubt the party line coming from DC and the MSM. Now, let me make a point here. My approach for keeping this blog going for over nine years is simple. I seek the truth and I tell the truth. If my analytical reviews don’t match party lines, in any nation, then I understand when certain groups no longer wish to follow my post. Having said that, this, “they avoided” theory, in my opinion, is a false narrative and I am going to do my best to show why I believe my theory is correct.
https://www.businessinsider.com/satellite-images-show-iraq-base-damage-after-iranian-missile-attack-2020-1

BDA: 

Battle Damage Assessment. A process that is executed to the point of perfection by the United States Military. A process I had drilled into my head, over and over and over again. How soon did the the US have a accurate understanding of what damage they has sustained? Within an hour. If not, some board would be getting chewed to pieces. How soon would the US government relates BDA data? As you might expect, casualties reporting  is the top priority for briefing the leadership in DC and casualty reporting is the fist thing the public and media want to hear. When the comment was made, “ we will need to wait for the sun to come up to know BDA”, that was a partial truth, not a Clinton truth, but close!  Sun rise allows the BDA process to be confirmed to nearly 100 percent. Commanders do not wait for 100 BDA reports. Spot reports is enough to make decisions to adjunct battle plans. Okay, on to the real issue I have with this topic of BDA.

What was hit? If you look at this website I attached, you will see some very disturbing images. Didn’t someone say, early in the event, the missiles or rockets had landed in a field? Wrong, well, many one or two and that might have been the message CENTCOM decided to put out. Controlling “rumors” is a top priority of commands to the rear of the conflict. Facts, but limited always with the understanding of a golden rule of combat. “ The first reports are almost always wrong”!

What was hit? Aircraft, drones to be specific, damage to flight Ops and the tower, and storage locations, actually they were maintenance facilities. Now, like I said, first reports are always wrong, so the story of holes in the dirt may have a legitimate bases. But, and here comes a big, “but”!
If those were the targets chosen, and I doubt the weapon system was that accurate, then how does anyone come to the conclusion the IRGC / Team Khamenei/ intended to not harm US service members? Before you start talking to your computer or tablet about the US getting a “heads up”, let me describe for you the area these weapons hit.

As you may guess, the United State’s Military is not a 9 to 5 job, at least not for those in that AOR. Flight lines are 24/7/ Maintenance facilities are 24/7. Base Ops, the Tower is 24/7.  The concept the IRGC fired at targets they knew would not inflict US casualties is insane, so insane, I’m not sure how the MSM or DC came up with this theory.

Once again, let me take on the approach some of you and others like DC and the MSM will counter me with. The story goes, Tehran gave the heads up to Baghdad and Baghdad most likely told the US. This process was something Tehran planned for and it was the bases for insuring US troops were not injured. “ We need to strike you, but we don’t want to hurt you. We need to show our people real damage and tell them how many US soldiers we killed, but we know you already know the truth”. I’m sorry, but if that is the state of warfare in the 21st Century for the US, then I’m not sure how anyone is willing to stay in the services.  Did DC / the Pentagon / play a game to limit what was going to happen? Did the US put  troops in bunkers and then let missiles rain down on their heads? Did the US do this deliberately? Look at the penetration of those strikes? Who would knowing put their troops inside of bunkers, totally confident the bunkers could take the hit? I know I’ve been out for over five years now, but if I was a Commander again, and I found out someone played this game with the lives of my troops......well...... I won’t finish this sentence.

“ They didn’t mean to harm our troops”. That was the initial message even the US Pentagon put out. Now, on  the Friday of the same week of the attack, the US Secretary of State makes the comment, “ We know the Iranians tried to kill our services members”. Wait....what? What storyline are we to believe now? We know the inside of the base was struck. We know Tehran states they tried to kill US service members and will continue to do so. So, how in the world did we end up with a narrative of,
“ They deliberately avoided hurting US members”. Perhaps you can see where my skepticism is coming from now?

BDA doesn’t lie, but, BDA can be manipulated at all levels. I’ve seen it done. The narrative during this event became clear from the beginning; nobody wanted the conflict to get out of hand, and I agreed with that stance. Here is my problem. What level of controlled messaging did the US use to keep that desired narrative? Did the US risk the lives of it’s own service members? Bunkers....look.....I used those bunkers in Desert Storm. I watched SDUDS hit near my bunker. The concept of hiding in a bunker while Tehran is allowed to put on their show,well,  that better not be true. Just how bad did the US want to prevent this event from escalating? Would the US and others simply let the reality of a airliner being shot down go unaddressed ? If you read my post from yesterday, you will see my opinion on this topic as well. In the end, both events worry me. Are we moving towards such scripted warfare? Is this something new? Those that served in Vietnam may know this story all too well. Scripted warfare.

I’m not convinced  I’m correct in my theory, and honestly, I don’t want to believe what my analytical mind is telling me. Having said that, this so called conflict seemed abnormal from the minute everyone started talking on social media and the networks. Here is the last truism I will leave you with. When nations start manipulating conflicts that are underway, when they allows politically considerations to influence the crisis, again, think Vietnam, I can assure you of one thing. Mistakes will be made and people will die and suffer. Don’t believe this statement, try talking to the families of the downed airliner. Clueless Iranian Anti Air units being led by clueless officers, all with deplorable training. The lesson and it’s one that has not changed for thousands of years. If you are going to go to war, do so violently and make your enemy have only one thought, “ make it stop”!  Games, folks, we are playing games.

TRUMP’S MESSAGES 

WHAT DO THEY MEAN AND WHAT DIDN’T HE SAY? 

Like most of you, I listened and watched, watched because the visual part was more important to the region than the words. When it was over,  the first thing I did was turn off the networks. How President Trump gave his speech was important, but the messaging inside the speech, that was brilliant. If you have followed me for the past several years, you know one of my basic rules of dealing with issues in the Middle East. You must look for the messages inside the message. It’s a classic Arab concept and it’s played to the tilt. Okay, now that I have that scene setter out of the way, let’s get down to what took place yesterday. Now, everyone has opinions and that’s the main reason why I turn off the networks. It’s a given that many people will interpret what the US President said in a variety of ways. Let me give you my interpretation looking at this event through the eyes and ears fo two groups; The Middle Eastern Nations and Russia. China? Ya, I’ll touch on that as well. So, here we go! 

NO NUKES: 

After the, “. In your face” way the US assassinated Soleimani, was there any doubt over President Trump’s opening statement? Do you think anyone in Tehran listened to those words, with the Service Chiefs standing behind the President, and thought, “ No way he would attack our facilities”. So, the fist message was black and white. From that point on, the messaging became very complex, for everyone, to include the real enemy of President Trump, The new US Socialist party. 

NATO AND OIL: 

“We no longer need the Middle East oil and it’s up to Europe to find the new balance with the region and Russia”. As a reminder, I’m looking at this speech from the Middle East and Moscow glasses. How did that message go over in Saudi? I’ve said for two years now, the inbound King of Saudi is looking for new alliances, but not under the conditions the Russians and Chinese would require. Bottom line, Saudi doesn’t trust Moscow or Beijing.  

How did this messaging go over in Moscow? NATO, the dirty word Moscow hates, and for good reason. If President Trump was giving the hint, “we are out of the region”, then does Moscow truly believe that NATO has the stones to step up to the plate? Nope! So, was this, in the end, good news for Moscow? If I was in Moscow, I would have looked over and seen that Cheshire Cat grin the Tsar is known for. The US is selling fuel, not buying it and until some nut job like Sanders or Pocahontas gets in the White House, that fact will remain. So, what did the Middle East hear? “Don’t need you and don’t care”. 

The People of Iran:

Here is where the message inside the message really hit home to Team Khamenei. When the US President made the statement about the future of Iran and then followed it up by a closing statement to, “the people of Iran”, you could hear the old men tossing their shoes at the set all over the world! 

Did Tehran interpret President Trump's comment to mean the US would support further uprisings in Iran? You bet they did. More importantly, did the, “people of Iran” interpret this message the same way. Oh ya. How about Moscow? What Moscow heard was, the US is going to stir the pot in Iran, but talk about leaving the region. If anything President Trump said yesterday could lead to further action by Team Khamenei, it’s this topic of, “ the people of Iran”. It made me think of one of my favorite topics, The Law of Unintended Consequences! Did someone on Team Trump think through the impact of this message? Too late now. 

Yesterday’s address by the US President may have been part of the “Off Ramp” concept, but the messages inside the messages, that is what the region and others heard. ‘ Don’t try to build a bomb. We don’t need the region. EU try and grow a set and take on the region you keep telling me I’m approaching all wrong. We are going to make life a living hell for you inside your own country Mr. Khamenei’. And with that, the US President left the podium. 

What was not mentioned:

I must admit, I was so busy interpreting what President Trump was saying and showing, that I may have missed something, but let me bring up two topics that I’m a little confused about. 

Flt PS752: 

Did the US Intelligence Community/ IC / have an understanding of what happened to that airliner leaving Tehran, leaving right in the middle of a possible war for that very city? Did the US have enough situational awareness of anti air systems in Iran to see what was launched and where? That depends on the size of the weapon. A shoulder fired system would have a chance of being detected if the airliner had the systems to do so. The US would have the ability if we had active air operations over the area. The fact of the matter is, the crash of this flight is very....very...suspect. 

If the US knew this airliner was shot down, shouldn’t the US President had said something about it during his speech? If he walked up to the podium and said, “ The murderous regime in Tehran shot down a commercial airliner”. Just what took place here? The video clips I’ve seen clearly show a motor in flames, the kind of event a shoulder fired weapon would create. The incident happened in a area that would have been protected by air defense assets. The Iranians seem very reluctant to let anyone see the wreckage; sound familiar? The Ukraine?  Just what is the level of training of Iranian anti air teams? How professional are the Offices who run these teams? I will give you a hint, the level of technical and professional training in Iran is not even measurable compared to what takes place in the US Military. Screw up in a training exercise and you don’t get an Article 15, administrative punishment, you get beat! How’s that for pressure for some low hanging fruit, ADA, unit? You think you are at war and then this aircraft comes flying over. You didn’t even work in that area up until a few days ago and you have not had real training in months or longer. Could this airliner been shot down? I would say yes, the odds are better than 50/50. So, what happened to this story? BBC ran something this morning about how the aircraft attempted to return to the airport. Indications are, the aircraft declared no mechanical emergency and the airliner’s track didn’t show a struggle for speed or altitude. It went from everything fine, to disaster. Sounds like something happened and that something was not a normal event. 

Here is what I hope is not the case. I hope, pray, the answer is not, “now is not the time Mr. President to bring up this event. We are looking for a way out of this, not to make it worse. Let the Ukrainian government and Canadians push the issue. If they bring it up, then it only strengthens our position on the actions of Tehran”. Like I said, I hope and pray this is not the case, but this event is very disturbing. 

Israel: 

When the US President made his indirect comments about not needing the region anymore, he din’t mention not leaving Israel? Why? No mention of the US’s alliance with Israel. Why? Again, the issue of timing. I can bet you the decision was made to avoid any discussion of Israel in this speech. Talking about Israel and the alliance between the two nations is not a pathway to an Off Ramp! Did this upset Israel? Nope. Why? Because their government already knew there would be no mention of Israel. Like I said, I was not completely tuned in for the whole speech, but these two topics seem to have been left out of the script. Wait. Did anyone hear the US President use the words, or something close to, “You better not do it again”! Did I miss a typical Trump statement? Oh ya.....Off Ramp......I forgot! Here is one thing about, “ Off Ramps”. Sometimes that ramp is very short and the next thing you know, you are right back in heavy traffic. 

TEHRAN STRIKES

After the events of last night, I am overwhelmed by the volume of opinions, some of them being my own:) What happened? What next? These are the two questions that need to be answered, but not in that order. So, let me take a stab at these two topics, realizing I’m typing this prior to the US President’s statement this morning. 

What Next: 

 Did Tehran deliberately miss key US locations? I heard an interesting comment last night, one I let slip past as I was watching events unfold. It seems the two sties that were nearly struck, not struck, but nearly, where both in areas where the Sunni population and the Kurdish population are dominant. Deliberate act on Tehran’s part? Most likely. It also seems the opinion most want to support is based upon Tehran attack was designed to keep escalation from taking place. Does that mean Tehran has completed their operations? No. Does that mean, like most “experts” stated last night, the next actions will be more conventional, terrorist type events and not kinetic warfare? No. Look, what took place last night might have been designed to limit the escalation of a conflict, but one important factor must be added before that concept can prove to be effective. I very smart man once told me, “ The other side gets a vote”! That’s right along the lines of another old truism. “ No plan survives contact with the enemy”. The intent of the Iranian military may have been to prevent escalation, but was that the intent of Khamenei? Did he not state the attack was not enough? What did that mean? Did his own military, IRGC, limit the orders they were given? Is he calling President Trump’s bluff? Are we, “out of the woods on this event? 

If you break it down to the most simplistic stance, here is what Tehran, don’t know if it’s Khamenei or his military, is saying. “ Take our attack. Don’t do anything in return. Let us have our parade and declare the Great Satan was punished and better not respond. Do all of this and “we”, who I don’t really know, won’t make it worse for you”! Does that sound like a message President Trump is likely to accept? Again, I’m typing this prior to the President’s address today. 

Off Ramp: 

Does DC and Tehran want an Off Ramp? You can bet the Iranian military does. They fully realize what the next phase could mean to them. By the way, if there is a next phase, look for a large percentage of the Iranian Air-force to land in a Gulf State. Yep, massive defection.  Yes, it seems many do want an Off Ramp, but the question becomes, as it always is, what are the terms? “Eat this and do nothing”. That’s the message from Tehran. Those terms won’t go over well in the White House. So, is that it, does the US strike back? Let me give you an alternative, and one I mentioned last night on Twitter.

That was Pathetic:

“ Last night, Iran attempted to attack our forces in Iraq with a pathetic show of force utilizing junk military equipment. They blew holes in the dirt and we killed their number one Terrorist. Some say they missed deliberately to keep the situation under control. The fact is, they knew not to push too far or the US would destroy them”.  If that’s not the words President Trump uses, than he is missing a golden opportunity. Now, I have to really speed this up before he gives his speech and I look like a dummy for missing the opportunity for showing I predicted his words. Make Team Khamenei look like incompetent cowards and leave it at that. Let the next move be theirs. Let them see how that statement plays in the MSM and Social Media. Let us watch the MSM lose their minds if President Trump takes this approach. Yep. Laugh at them and say, “is that all you got”? 

What Happened:

Okay, let me wrap this up with a down and dirty, “what happened” review. 

1. The US knew the shots were coming from Iran.The US has  realtime intelligence over country and there is nothing Tehran can do about it. As those launchers were stood up, The US knew it. The defensive posture of the US forces was at full readiness. Oh ya, the four missiles that didn’t make it, A crap design or maintenance or a new way of brining them down. You can bet the ranch the Russians and the Chinese are digging through the data to see just what happened to those four.  

2. Did we launch air assets, most likely and let me tell you why. One of the most tactically sound ways to get your enemy to expose their air defenses is to run right at them. As soon as the radars light up, the locations are placed in a target package and if needed the radar sites disappear. If we put our air assets up last night for such a mission, a large number of  IRGC air defense units need new underwear today. Oh ya. Can they track our aircraft in “passive mode”? Yes, but that doesn’t matter. It takes a split second to get the information needed to kill the site. 

3. Backdoor communications took place. Any Iranian Commander, who talks to the Russian military inside Syria or Iran, had the capability to get the “truth” to the US. “ We are going to attack, but it’s simply a show of force with no intent to create escalation”. Would the Russians try to prevent a real shooting war between the US and Tehran? Read my blog post from yesterday. Did the Pentagon get word the event was going to take place? Most likely. Did the US already know? Yes, see number 1 above. Did the additional information keep the US from responding? It’s possible. 

4. What took place last night was not only predicted, it was observed as Tehran was getting ready. The MSM may have been surprised and they wasted no time blaming President Trump for the beginning of WWIII! 

5. Finally. I must make a very important point, one that we cannot overlook. As all of this was going on last night, the new US Socialist party, formally known as the Democratic Party, along with the MSM / MSNBC / CNN / BBC / became hysterical over the beginning of a conflict, “endless war”, all because President Trump is “irrational”, CNN words. Who watched this? Who took notes on the continued decay of US unity? Team Khamenei? Yes and as bad as that is for the US, that’s not the worst of it. On the other side of the world, a Dragon watches from it’s den as it’s future meals squabble. How did those four missiles come down? Nothing will be taken for granted! 

Soleimani and Moscow

Do the Russians really care?

It is not a news flash that Soleimani was a key player to Moscow. So, when the US blew him up, what did the Russian think? How upset are they? Do they really care? Yesterday I covered the options Tehran might consider. In http://coldansviewpoint.blogspot.com/2020/01/tehrans-options-yesterday-my-topic-of.html?m=1

In that post, I mentioned I would address the relationship and consequences of the Soleimani incident. So, here we go!

Bromance: 

As I have stated time and time again on this blog site, the “ bromance” between the Russians and Tehran is a complete farce. To Moscow, Tehran is a proxy puppet, and what makes that statement really ugly is the fact Tehran knows it. Not only does Moscow see Tehran as the capital of a puppet kingdom, that very kingdom hates the puppet master. I’ll condense at least two dozen blog post from the past five years into a simple paragraph. The old men in Tehran, Team Khamenei, are determined to set the course of the region based upon the desires of Tehran. Moscow is determined to use the Middle East’s as a leverage point against the US / West. Moscow is even more determined to regulate the oil and gas from the region given that is the live blood of Russian economy.  Simply put, we have two very different goals held by two countries that claim to be “ allies”. Russia and Iran being allies. It’s kinda like two Mafia Bosses stating they have joined hands! They may say it. They may take pictures together, but at the end of the day, they hate each other.

Soleimani: 

  Old news; Soleimani was a closer to Moscow than many in Tehran were comfortable with. Old news; Moscow saw Soleimani as the guy who Moscow could manipulate when the time came to do so. Short answer; many in Tehran envied Soleimani and many didn’t trust him, and he was a key player to the Russians.  Where does that lead us? If we accept these statements, then what was the opinion in Moscow when the US blew their “boy” up?  As I said two days ago, in Moscow, Soleimani was a great tool, but he was expendable. So, let me avoid just rehashing old statements. Let’s get down to the process of predictive analysis of how Moscow’s plans may have changed.

Putin Takes a Trip:

 The Tsar takes a trip to Syria and does so right after their “Boy” is blown up by the President Trump. Now, if someone was to state this trip was a result of the assassination, the answer would undoubtedly be, “no! It was planned”. That’s the answer every government gives when they quickly travel somewhere before or after a major event. Why did Putin travel to Damascus? Simple. It’s the right time to send a message. “As we have told you time and time again, we will determine the fate of Syria not you”. Incase you didn’t catch it, that’s the “message” from Moscow to Tehran. That’s been the message since the day the Russians showed up in Syria and Team Khamenei knows it. The struggle for control of Syria is not between the West and Tehran. The struggle is between Moscow and Tehran. So, the question becomes, who does Assad side with, and let me tell you, that’s a very dangerous question for the Eye Doctor.

Did Putin attend the funeral of Soleimani? No. did anyone from Moscow travel to this staged event? I bet not. What’s the message there? Where did Russia travel to? Yep, Syria. Are you starting to get the picture here? It seems the loss of Moscow’s “Boy” was not that big of a deal? Why? Is there a backup, “Boy”? How could there not be? Does the death of Soleimani simply not register inside of Moscow? Actually, it does, but not in a way you might think.

Leverage: 

When it comes to major global powers, what is the game this is played every hour of everyday of every week, year after year after year? Yep. The game of leverage. Soleimani’s death was somewhat of a setback for Moscow, but like every good strategic player, that setback was quickly turned into leverage. What is Tehran’s ability to resist Moscow’s operations in Syria right now? What is Team Khamenei more preoccupied with; the Syrian plan or preparation for a possible conflict with the US and perhaps Israel? What happened to the price of oil, at least temporarily? Who economy is based on oil and gas? What is the global opinion of the US’s assassination of Soleimani? Did the level of division inside the US political system increase? All of these things are leverage points in favor of whom? Yep, Moscow. Now, do the Russians want to see a shooting war between the US / Israel and Team Khamenei? No. Would the price of fuel go through the roof? Yes, but the overall economic impact, long term, would not be to the advantage of Russia, so the answer is no. The leverage from this assassination is a golden opportunity for the Russians and why should they mess that up?

Avoiding conflict:

Can the Russians prevent a shooting war between the US and Tehran? Not really. Can they offer the US an alternative to such a war? Yes. How so? Is Moscow’s only communications with Team Khamenei through the old men in Tehran? No. One aspect of the Bromance between Russia and Iran is somewhat off the radar. The interactions between the Russian and Iranian military is greatly underestimated. If Moscow understood the limited relationship it would have with Team Khamenei, it also understood the value of keeping key players in Iran’s military linked to Team Putin. Is there a replacement “Boy”? I would bank on it. Does Moscow have the ability to manipulate the next government in Iran? Well, they have a far better chance than the US the rest of the world does.

I will make this as simple as possible. If Team Trump realizes Team Putin can change the future of Iran’s leadership and by doing so, avoid a war that could rival anything that has taken place in the region in over a 100 years, then that option is most likely on the table. Is Team Trump opposed to leaving Iran in Moscow’s proxy bucket? The NEOCONS and the Deep State may be opposed to such a option, but President Trump get’s the final vote.

The Price Tag: 

If Team Putin can offer the Off Ramp for a potential war with Iran, then we need to ask ourselves, what is the price tag for such an offer? Yes, avoiding such a war is good for the Russian economy, but is that all Moscow settles for? If the world is desperate to keep this possible conflict from taking place, just what is the world ready to offer? Folks, this is how the global game works.  If the US believes that a major conflict with Tehran is becoming more and more likely, then Off Ramps are critical.  Moscow can set the fate of Iran as long as the US and the rest of the world can live with how that new course comes about. A coup, another assassination, support to another round of youthful protest. All of these events would find the blame being placed on the US, but if the real leg work was done by some other nation, would that really matter? “ Regime Change”! Yep, Trump would get the blame for that as well, but a future Iran that is not pursuing nuclear weapons, not calling for the destruction of Israel and not burning the American flag, that’s the new Iran everyone desires, to include the future leadership inside Iran, it’s youth! Who makes this happen and what is the price tag?  I would bet you Moscow already has a sales pitched ready to place on the table. My opinion. Let’s sit down and see how much this car cost!