IRAN'S NUCLEAR "DEAL" IS STILL ALIVE

So the EU states the Iranian nuclear "deal" is still alive? why of course it is. After all, what has Iran done to jeopardize the trust of the EU? Let's see. They have attacked six tankers in the past two months. their proxy fighters have launched countless missile attacks into Saudi Arabia. They attempted to highjack a British tanker. They shot down a US drone. They have threatened all shipping in the straits. They have demanded the EU take a knee and pacify Tehran's demands for economic aid. It's easy to see, the Mullahs have done nothing, "significant" to upset the agreement. with today's announcement from Ms. Mogherini, I am confident the threats and actions from Tehran will halt immediately. Mogherini. that must be French for Chamberlian. 

Now what:

Now that the EU has once again, done what they do best, take a knee, the question becomes, now what? Let me give you just a few clues. 1. The Mullahs will now up their demands. Not only will they want their oil to flow wherever they want it to, but they will also demand the EU pressure the US into discontinuing the sanctions. Now, they know full well the US will not listen to the EU, at least not as long as Trump is in the White House, well........at least I think the US won't. Rumors continue to flow of the US looking for an "offramp" from the Iranian issue. If that is true, and I am beginning to fear that it is, the old men in Tehran will turn up the heat even more. How ironic given that just a little over a week ago, the UK slapped the Mullah's upside the head of the attempted highjacking of the UK tanker. I could go on and on about the, " now whats", but let me take you back to a stark reality that somehow everyone seems to just wish away. 

The last vote:

Who gets the last and most important vote on the Iranian "deal"? Yep.....Israel. Does Israel need the EU's permission or support to act against the Iranian nuclear program? No. Does Isreal need the support of the US to conduct military operations against Iran? In a perfect scenario, yes, but with the recent backing down of Team Trump on the pending actions against Iran as well as the rumors of the US now looking for an "offramp", Israel may be coming back to a sobering reality, a reality they lived with for eight years under Obama. In the end, Israel may stand alone to prevent the Mullahs from obtaining nuclear weapons. If Team Trump is now looking to kick this issue past the next election cycle in the US, well, that gives the Mullah's breathing room. Even better for the Mullahs, if Trump were to lose, in the minds of the old men in Tehran, they might just be in the clear. They might think that, but their military commanders know better. 

How bad can it get:

Teletubbies of the EU will not prevent Israel from defending itself. Words spoken over a fancy conference table will not prevent the Mullahs from continuing their plan. If times change and Israel must act unilaterally, the repercussions will rest squarely on the shoulders of the EU and the US political circus. Netanyahu stated Europe is repeating the same mistakes of the 1930s. I am confident very few people understand the validity of his statement.  

Is Israel prepared to go to war to prevent nuclear weapons in the hands of the Mullahs? yes. Could that include a preemptive strike, a strike the EU and the US Democratic party would blame on Israel? yes. Does anyone know this? yes. The US, Russia and several others believe this reality. Are they in a position to stop such an event? Yes. How? Can a regime change take place in Iran without the US being involved? yes, just look to Moscow for the clue. Would Israel warn the US and Russia of a pending first strike? Perhaps the US, but the warning to the Russians would be just prior to offensive operations getting underway. Are the Israelis prepared for the response the Mullahs might authorize? Yes, at least as best as they can be. How can Israel mitigate that response? Here is the ugly part. If the days comes this horrific battle unfolds, look for the IDF to strike in an overwhelming event. What options would be left off the table for Israel? none, and I think you understand what I am implying here. 

Reality:

The EU can stick its head in the sand and repeat the nightmare of WWII. The US can allow it's cyclic political circus to make poor decisions. None of this will matter the moment Israel's intelligence agencies truly believe the Mullahs are about to have a nuclear capability. Look. let me make this as clear as I can. With the US's total support, the Iranian capabilities can be dramatically reduced in a very short period of time. does that mean yet another conflict in the Middle East? Does it mean it could happen before the next election cycle? That is up to the Mullahs. But......if.......if it happens and the military power of the US is not combined to quickly reduce Iran's military to the point the damage to the region and Israel is kept at acceptable levels, whatever that might be, and things start to go bad for Israel, then no one and I mean no one should be shocked at what takes place then. Yes, these are hard times. Yes, the American people have a war aversion. Yes, the EU believes the Mullahs are controllable. Finally; yes, the Israelis will do whatever needed to stop what it seems everyone else is just trying to wish away. The US wants an "offramp? Okay. I say that ramp only exist in one location, Moscow. Regime change doesn't have to be a US operation, but the price for convincing the Russians to make the event a reality is most likely high, very high. Perhaps a satellite image of the IAF uploading a "special" payload would convince someone the time to take an easier route is growing short.  

DID THE US MEET WITH HASSAN KHOMENEI AND MEMBERS OF THE IRGC?

Two days ago, I posted a podcast on a story I read that made me stop to think! Did the US meet, in secret, with the Grandson of the Ayatollah Khomenei and reps from the IRGC? Is this possible? Would the US do such a thing? Well, first off, you bet the US would and so would any other country in the world because that is how the world works. This meeting is allegedly to have taken place in Iraq. Unusual? No. Safe, neutral ground for the Grandson and the IRGC reps, that’s what Iraq would have provided. What would have been the purpose of such a meeting? Now, there is the Billion dollar question.

Why:

Why would the US agree to such a meeting and by the way, who arranged the meeting? Let’s put a few facts on the table and then we will drive on. First off, the Grandson. Why him? For the sake of keeping this simple, let me tell you why him. He’s not one of the “Chosen”. Yes his Grandfather is the founder of the revolution, but the current leadership sees him as a threat. You see, once you gain power, you are never in a hurry to turn power over to someone else. Short version; the Grandson is on the outside looking in and he has been very……..very vocal about that fact. Does he have relationships with “others” outside of Iran? You bet he does. If Moscow was to agree to a change in leadership inside of Iran, is the Grandson someone that is already willing to work with Moscow? Now, there is a concept I will have to come back to in a few because it’s vital to what I am driving towards.

The IRGC.

 If you have followed my post, you know I made a big deal out of the rumors the old men in Tehran wanted to move the IRGC under the regular Iranian military. War preparation? Maybe. Budget issues? Perhaps. Trust? Ah, now there is an issue that is at the top of the charts each and every day of the week in Tehran. For over a year, I’ve been talking about the relationships Moscow has been building with key IRGC and Al-Qud leaders. Operations and intentions in Syria were and are determined by commanders on the ground and the orders to those commanders come from Moscow. When those orders conflict with the guidance coming from Tehran, then you can bet the Russians are letting key Iranian military leaders know what the future may look like if Russian support were to change. Short answer, “ If we decide to pull the plug on the leadership in Tehran, you need to be on the right side of that event”. When the time comes, Moscow is known for clear messaging. Does the fact that key members of the IRGC came to this secret meeting once again point to Moscow’s involvement? You bet it does.

The Power of Rumors:

Imagine the reaction in Tehran when this story broke. Do the Mullahs keep track of the Grandson’s whereabouts? How could they not? Validating if he had recently been in Iraq would be a key clue in determining if this story was just something the US had concocted to deepen the paranoia in Tehran, or was there something to this rumor? What IRGC reps where said to have attended the meeting? That list would start with the names the old men already don’t trust, and that lack of trust would be built on who they think has been too cozy with Moscow. The bottom line is, this story made a bad situation for the Mullahs even worse. If it was a brilliant piece of Information Warfare on the US’s part, along with a few others, then proving the rumors false would become the top priority. Why did the US state the meeting didn’t take place, because that is exactly what the leadership in Tehran would expect DC to do. You see, by denying the story, the US actually made the impact more potent.

Who was there:

If Tehran believes this meeting took place, then how did it happen and who was in on it? The US? Yep. The Israelis? Yep. The Russians? Yep. The Iraqis? Yep, and that one poses a real problem for Iraq. If this meeting took place and it did so in Iraq, the Mullahs are going to want to extract a pound of flesh. In their eyes, the own Iraq and it’s leadership. To think they may be part of a Coup plot against Iran’s leaders, well, that just makes the paranoia level push right through the roof. Who was there? That depends on if the story is even true or not. Again, my hunch is the story is true to some level and if I’m wrong, I bet you can’t convince the Mullahs it’s not true.

Why:

Okay. Back to the question of why? What’s the best way to avoid a war between the US and Iran? A change in leadership inside Iran. Who knows this? Everyone. Who holds the strings to the actions of the Iranians? Answer that question this way; without the support from Moscow, where would Iran be? Does Russia care about the dreams of the Mullahs? No. Does Russia see Iran as a proxy fighter, although an unwilling one? Yes. Is Russia willing to offer the US a way out of a regional war, a war the Russians don’t want as well, with the exception of the price of oil? Well, that depends on what the US is willing to bring to the table? Look, I’ve been saying this for the past several years. NATO is the issue for the Russians. NATO’s creeping movement into Eastern Europe. It’s an issue that at some point in time Moscow will be willing to fight a war over, especially a proxy war somewhere else.  Last week, a meeting took place in Israel between the Russians, the US and Israel. The topic was supposedly the future of Syria. Iran was not at the table. How did that go over in Tehran? How much more isolated can these desperate old men become? With everything that is going on with sanctions and the status of Iran’s economy, just where does the rumor of a possible coup fit in? Was the purpose to further destabilize the Mullahs? Would Moscow agree to such an event unless there was something in it for them? Hint, if this meeting did take place and the Russians were not part of the process, then that is real…….real…..real bad news! 

The Mullahs have bad days stacked on top of bad days and there is no end in sight. They don’t trust the Russians and yet, that is the only game they have going right now. China you might say? Not yet….not yet. This is interesting stuff and it’s important stuff to keep track of. The Royal Navy’s slap in the face of the Mullahs yesterday is just another event that pushes the paranoia meter higher. I will leave you with one last thought. If you need to see how bad this story may have made things in Tehran, keep an eye out for the next big, Iranian driven event. As for the Grandson, I wouldn’t be starting any cars anytime soon.

HMS MONTROS AND THE GAME OF BRINKSMANSHIP 

   A little of two weeks ago, the US lost an important game of "Brinksmanship" with the old men in Tehran. Today, the UK decided to play this game with the old men and Tehran lost....for now. Did the events that took place with the US embolden the leadership in Tehran? Yes. Is the leadership in Tehran desperate enough to try the game of brinksmanship again? I think they answer that question today. So, what happened? What changed that made this latest round of a highly dangerous game take place? 

Saving Face:

   The events between the US and Tehran a few weeks ago were disastrous for the US's perception management goals for the Middle East. Did President Trump's decision to call off the strikes avoid a much larger event? Yes, and so, identifying that episode as disastrous is a very subjective topic. The old men in Tehran created an environment that allowed them to save face, at least temporarily. The US accepted the concept of, " we can wait....for now". When the dust settled, the old men in Tehran had their temporary victory, a victory everyone of their military commanders knew full well would be short-lived.   

   As I and others predicted, it didn't take long for the next event to take place. The seizure of the tanker moving Iranian oil to Syria set in motion what I would hope would be a deliberate plan on the US's part. Push the old men in Tehran. Take them off their gloating soapbox and hand them an event, without gunfire, that would force them to either take action or take a loss on round two of brinksmanship. Secondly, force them to consider taking action against someone other than the US, thus allowing the US to take the high ground. Well, it worked, but don't start waving the checkered flag too soon. When the HMS Montros turned her guns, automatic guns with computerized, target recognition, on the five smaller Iranian attack boats, the British Navy was not bluffing. A decision was made and that decision was made either in Tehran on by an Iranian commander. The five small craft turned away. Short answer....... SMACK! that was the sound of the UK Royal Navy slapping the old men in Tehran across the face. Great, right? That's the way to do it, right? 

What Alternatives:

   Before the US and the UK take a victory lap, let me remind you, as the IC is reminding the White House, just how desperate the government in Tehran truly is. A little two weeks ago, Tehran seemed to be ready for a dramatic event with the US. The US became aware of this and decided to disengage. It was right then and there, the plan that we witnessed take place today most likely began its execution. This time, the tables were turned and the old men in Tehran backed down. What alternative did they have? with the guns and other weapons of the Montros pointing them in the face, what alternative did they have? Here is the hint and it's a hint you need to pay close attention to. right after the US was made to look as if they had backed down, an alternative course of action was put into play. Think about it. Does anyone think for a second the same thing is not taking place in Tehran as I write this hastily thought out blog post?  Yes, round two, actually round four if you figure in the other six tankers that were attacked, is over. Here is what you can absolutely count on. There is going to be around three and perhaps several more. A little perception loss in DC is one thing, a perception loss in Tehran, stacked on top of everything else that is going wrong in the country, well, that's a different story.  Here is my final comment. The next event, whatever it may be, will not be too far in the future. I may have to rush this blog post just to beat what happens! 

SNAPSHOT

Yesterday, I put together a podcast, something I'm still really new at, based on a process I've been doing here on my blog for several years. For those of you who have followed me, you know from time to time, I've put together a process I call, "SNAPSHOT". It's my way of taking a quick, strategic look at global issues and providing a down and dirty opinion of why they are important and what to look for. I will be the first to tell you, the podcast route is.......well....it's just easier. Never fear, I will replicate to the best of my ability.

IRAN:

   Where are we on Iran? Enrichment? Is that the issue at the moment?  Is the five percent issue truly noteworthy? Well, that depends on who you are asking. In Israel, the answer is a resounding yes. In Europe and in Moscow, the answer would be no. In the US? Honestly, I really don't know. Yes, we have heard the words, "That would be a big mistake", but what does that mean? what does it mean in Moscow? What does it mean in Isreal? Who cares what it means in the EU. China? we will get to that but on a different topic. 

   One comment I made on my podcast is a statement I've been making on my blog site for the past several years. The Iranian and North Korea weapon's programs are joined at the hip. What does that mean? Short answer, the Mullahs already have a nuclear weapon system. The problem is, it resides in North Korea. Yes, the program was and is a joint venture and those who don't want to admit it still now the truth. What's missing? the fuel, that's what's missing. Now, go back to the enrichment issue. How important is that topic? But wait. there is a huge blocking force to this threat. The functional weapons may be in North Korea but does anyone believe that nonfueled weapon could make it from North Korea to Iran? " Just fuel it there and don't worry about it". If that is what you were thinking, then here is another bit of reality. Nuclear fuel has a fingerprint. If a "joint" bomb is ever going to be used, North Korea would have to be sure the fingerprint of the bomb, the fuel, is not traced to North Korea. That fuel will have to come from Iran. So, again, how important is the enrichment issue? I think we have our answer. 

   Last but you can rest assured not least, does it matter what the EU or Moscow thinks about the enrichment issue? Not to Israel. The Mullahs are desperate and growing more so day by day thanks to the crippling sanctions from the US. Will they push the 2015 violations to the point that Israel will respond? At the rate it's going, do the Mullahs have any offramp anywhere in sight? No. Do the people of Iran? Let's pray they do. In the end, Israel will do what it needs to do to survive the Iranian threat. For the Mullahs, conflict may be the only choice. This topic was first on my list for a reason. 

THE RUSSIAN SUB:

   This story is not only mysterious to me, but it's also somewhat frightening. To tell you the truth, I'm not sure why I placed the Iranian issue above this topic. A Russian "Special Operations" sub said to be on a mapping mission in Russian waters has a fire. Unusual? Not for Russian subs. Unusual as to the makeup of the crew and the quick disclaimer about the location and purpose of the mission? Yes. Unusual the White House had an emergency meeting at nearly the same time as the fire? Only if the US needed to have its story straight. Was the US in the "area"? Seems like it. why else would such a quick meeting be called, if......if....that is the reason the meeting was held. Did something take place that had the potential to create a crisis between the two nations? It's interesting and perhaps even a clue that a Russian military Commander made mention of how the brave actions of those who died saved the world from a global event? Not the exact wording here, but the point is made. a point that was quickly denied by other senior Russian military members. Folks. Something took place here and it was not just a simple fire onboard a Russian Sec Ops sub in Russian waters. Here the last thing we do know. The issue has "officially" gone away. I want to stress the word, "officially".

HONG KONG:

   Weeks of protest, protest like we have not witnessed in Hong Kong for years. Protest Beijing places the blame squarely on the US and most likely the UK.  Are they correct in their assumption? maybe, but the idea of DC being that proactive at a time when the US political leadership is a ship lost at sea, I wouldn't put too much stock in Beijing's theory. Could NGOs, ones that have ties to both governments, be stoking the flames of discontent in Hong Kong's youth? Perhaps. But, ask yourself this question. What's in it for them? What's in it for the nations that may support the NGO activities? Here is an even better question. Are you convinced it would be the US or the UK behind such an event? Are there "others" who might wish to see pressure applied to China?  Yes, yes there is and some even call them, "Allie". The Bear still secretly fears the Dragon. Here is the problem. Beijing is most likely stuck on the US / UK scenario. China knows it can no longer have Tiananmen Square events. The days of running people over with tanks are over, at least we think they so.

   Here is my bet. Beijing believes the events in Hong Kong are related to the US's pressure on two fronts. 1. The trade talks. " Work with us or watch what type of unconventional problems we can create for you". 2. The US strategic plan for limiting China's growing influence in the world. Does the US see China as a player in the events in Venezuela? yes. Does the US see China working to disrupt the US's relationships with the rest of the Americas? yes. Does Beijing see what is taking place in Hong Kong as retaliation for such events? It's very possible. Is China frustrated with this issue? You bet they are. Will it lead to them turning up the heat somewhere else? I think you can always bank on the deep thinking Chinese to find alternative reactions. 

MEXICO:

   This one is the most simple one on the list if for any other reason than the fact I have spoken to the issue of Mexico's status multiple times in the past few weeks. Having said that, here is the twist I need to add. On my podcast, I touched on the issue of the Mexican Federal Police protesting against the government of AMLO. It seems the transformation process for the federal police into the new National Gaurd is not well accepted. As if this was not bad enough for the progressive, pacifist revolutionary AMLO, his comment about disbanding the Mexican military is very likely having impacts we are not even witnessing...............yet! AMLO is driving Mexico into uncharted waters, waters they have not witnessed since the last revolution. How does this impact the growing crisis in the US, illegal migration? Let me restate what I have said over an over again. If the US thinks it has a migration crisis now, just wait until Mexico falls into the same pit as Venezuela? Can that happen? Can Mexico turn into another Venezuela or Albania? Those that say it can't are the same ones who try to explain what changed before they were given the opportunity to not sound so stupid.  AMLO is a chapter in Mexican history that is being written with each passing day. Where that history takes that fragile nation is anyone's guess.

ANTIFA:

   I will end with this topic and I have two concerns. 1. The movement is a dangerous indication of political correctness gone insane in the US. 2. The enemies of the US have to look at this movement as a potential weapon with the endstate of further, and I stress, further destabilizing the nation. When basement dwellers dress up as some version of a Ninja geek and open assault people on the streets of the US,  all the while as law enforcement looks on, then we can only assume the US society is heading into turbulent waters.

   Look. The world has seen another group just like this. They were called, " Sturmabteilungs". Brown Shirts. They roamed the streets of Germany in the 20s and 30s and terrorized anyone who didn't go along with their way of thinking and they did so all in the name of "justice". They had the backing of one political party, even when that party pretended they didn't support their more egregious actions. Sound familiar and please don't answer with, "well, the same can be said of the KKK". I don't respond to childish comments.

   It is time. It is time for the US Department of Justice and the White House to call these thugs what they are, Domestic Terrorist. Don't just call them that. Officially identify them as such and bring the full force of the legal system down on them. I will end with a reminder of my first concern. The enemies of the US are always looking for cracks in the armor. follow the money. look who is funding these groups, Geroge Soros and others and hit them where it hurts. Make bank accounts disappear with the use of a keyboard and then sit back and simply say, " I wonder how that happened"? This is a dangerous movement in the US and it's one the US's enemies will not overlook.


There you have it. My most recent version of my " Snapshot" concept. A little different than the version on my podcast, but given my blog site has a much larger, international audience, I attempted to look at issues that impact us on a global scale. are there others? yes. Are there some that are more important? That's a matter of perception. Will I address some of those others issues not covered here today? You bet I will. If you are not in the US, please take the time to listen to my podcast. I would love to have your feedback on how I attempt to keep things really....... really simple. If you are in the US, listen as well. I don't mean to exclude you, but I am trying to build my audience abroad.

www.messy.fm/podcast/c2a851a0-a12a-11e9-8c51-1b7a3eeb3f1f

MEXICO’S PRESIDENT CALLS FOR DISBANDING THE MILITARY

                On July 1^st, I read a statement by Mr. AMLO that took me by surprise and that says a great deal, given I truly understood him to be a full-fledged Revolutionary. AMLO would like to disband the Mexican military and simply rely on the people to defend the nation. “What”? That was my first reaction. After I pondered this bazar statement for a few minutes, I had two choices, one, do a quick podcast on what was going on and why, or, I could post a blog entry. I have to tell you; the podcast route is faster and easier. No wonder people have gravitated to that form of communications. Yet, I had a problem, I had jumped on this topic so quickly, I hadn’t given myself time to fully analyze the issue. Truth be known, it took me a few days to finally come to some of the conclusions I will address in this post. So, podcast, are a great way to get the word out quickly, but in-depth analysis just comes easier for me on a keyboard.

Why?

Why would AMLO calls for such a drastic measure? That was the first real issue I found myself stuck on. Is he worried about the military? As a true passivist, does the concept of a military simply seem unnecessary? As one of the people who has warned he is taking Mexico down the road of Venezuela, how could I compare him to Hugo Chavez given Hugo was a military man all the way? As a Mexican version of a Teletubby, perhaps the idea of disbanding the military just made sense to him? But wait a minute. The initial reports of the actions being taken by his new “ National Guard” were anything but Teletubby like. Rumors of the NG going door to door is hardly the actions of a Passivist led government. As you can probably tell by now, I was having trouble with what AMLO seemed to be working towards, then another thought came into my head. Perhaps he was worried about the loyalty? It was an issue that haunted Hugo Chavez for years. Was that it? Was that his issue? Was he or should I say, is he worried about the loyalty of the military, mainly SEDENA? The formation of his new National Guard was based upon most of the force and funding coming out of SEDENA’s hide? Perhaps he and or his staff anticipated “trouble” with the military? Maybe he believes the best way to head off future tension is to do away with the organization that might oppose him? In the end, my opinion became, he was either a true Teletubby or he was a man who was planning a drastic change in Mexico’s future. A change so drastic, the military may not go along with it.

 The Speech and Perceptions:

Once I found myself a little more comfortable on the question of “ Why”, I began to rethink what I had stated in my podcast. The issue remained the same. How would the members of the Mexican Military react to such a statement from their leader? Even if he openly stated he didn’t believe he could make the disbandment event take place, what was the attitude towards someone who would even contemplate such a thing? I kicked this question around for a day or so and then, I began to hear reports of the Mexican Federal Police demonstrating against the actions of AMLO. As a reminder, the other agency that would be drawn from in order to form the new Mexican National Guard was the Federal Police. Twitter post gave me my first clue and most of them were coming from Mexican journalist covering the police protesting at their headquarters. Members were resisting the call to join the NG. Issues such as seniority and benefits seemed to be the sticking point, but in the end, the story was one that had many in Mexico talking. The federal police were upset with their President and the dissatisfaction was growing. Again, as I had stated in the podcast, if the federal police were resisting, then what was the climate inside the military? More importantly, what did the people of Mexico think? Did they support such a radical idea as the disbanding of their military, a military they had placed so much pride in for decades? Had opinions of the military suffered over the past decade as day to day law enforcement had been replaced by the military? Stories of military misconduct had been around for the past ten years and those stories had a great deal of validity. Would the people of Mexico actually support their President’s vision? Had AMLO tested the waters of public opinion before he made his statement? This issue was much harder for me to contemplate and it was a topic I had not covered in the podcast. Clearly, the federal police were not happy with the changes taking place, but adding something as radical as disbanding the military, what impact was that going to have on the public?

 What to look for:

I ended my podcast the other day with the comment I would be watching the developments in Mexico and how this statement about the military might impact perceptions and that is exactly what I’ve been doing. More importantly, I will continue to go back to a point I made in the podcast. What does this all mean to the US? How does this potentially impact the issue of mass illegal migration to the US border?

Can we expect to see members of the military protesting their reassignment into the National Guard? Well, it’s a valid topic to look for.  Post on social media platforms such as Twitter are a true indicator and that is where some of us will be paying close attention. Resistance to AMLO’s visions will dictate the overall health of the nation, that and the quarterly numbers for PEMEX. By the way, those numbers don’t look good and the ability to pay for all of AMLO’s visionary ideas is going to become a real issue soon. He can only attack the integrity of old federal agencies for so long before the people grow tired of him riding around on his White Horse proclaiming to be the people’s champion. Fact. The media is already after him at his daily……yes….daily press conferences.

One final key indicator to really pay attention to. The Budget! If AMLO truly wishes to limit his militaries ability to challenge him, he will go after the budget. Reallocating funds for better utilization under the National Guard will most likely be the way the plan is placed in front of the public. Let the leadership of the military see this concept come to reality and then we may witness even greater troubles inside Mexico. Yep folks, the old adage holds true. “ Follow the money”.

                                SILVER BULLETS AND  IRANIAN WEAPON SYSTEMS.

   The word is out an offensive cyber operation was executed against IRGC missile control networks last Thursday during or just prior to the on again, off again US response to the downing of the drone. Is this big news? In a way, yes. Last week, I posted if this event was to take place, it would contain actions that would send a deeper message to all of the US’s enemies. It appears one of those events took place. Here is the problem. Did it take place by choice or did it take place by accident? You might ask, “How could it have been an accident”? Well, let me tell you my opinion and you decide.

The Speed of Cyber:

   Scenario. Part of the COA / Course of Action / chosen included a offensive cyber attack against Iranian Command and Control networks. Not a new concept by far, but this attack was based upon the ability to completely disrupt the IRGC’s ADA / Air Defense and other offensive Missile platforms. For those of you that know air warfare, you understand the importance of “suppression” prior to aircraft and other platforms entering enemy controlled airspace. Think of the old Wild Weasel missions. ( Look it up if you need to). Now, that part of the package would have been executed first just as it would have been if physical suppression air assets were being utilized, but this time, the element of surprise was also going to have a message. The US’s new “suppression” capabilities were now based on, at least to some level, cyber events to cripple defending and offensive weapons’ platforms. Yes, it was going to be a message and most likely a huge one, one not limited to the old men in Tehran. Now, as impressive as that all might sound, it is very likely a fatal mistake was made and one that was made at the highest level. You see, the process to launch this part of the package is based upon keyboard strokes. A process that takes minutes to execute instead of hours, days or even weeks to prep such as aircraft and ship movements. Think along the lines of pressing the button for a nuke launch. If, and I want to emphasize.....if, the President authorized the stile and then changed his mind, that phase of the plan may have already been underway. Is there the ability to pull back malicious code? I don’t know, but if the phase of the operation that needed to be executed first was underway and then the word to haunt was given, then those enemy networks would have been struck with nothing happening behind that phase. Aircraft were reported to have been in the air when the story goes they were called off. Not the first time Ive seen that, but were other operations already being executed? You can almost assure yourself they were.  That’s the issue folks. The speed of cyber warfare is something very new to not only the military leadership, but to political leadership as well. If the IC / Intelligence Community informed the Combatant Commander it appeared the Mullahs were prepared to retaliate at a disproportionate level  and that information was passed to the President, then it’s logical that operation may have been called off...and that is a story for another discussion....trust me, but cyber, like nukes, takes place with the push of a few buttons and I don’t know if there is an auto destruction button. those codes are most likely already embedded and simply awaiting an activation code. Okay. Is this bad news or does it matter? Well, in my opinion, it’s bad news and here is why.

Silver Bullets:

   Throughout the course of weapon’s development, some have been cast as “Silver Bullets”.   Weapons that are kept off the radar for two reasons. 1. To keep the enemy from developing counter measures and 2. Showing other enemies who are watching a conflict just how dangerous their adversaries might be. The real danger becomes, when a nation utilizes a Silver Bullet system and then doesn’t follow through with the rest of the plan or leaks the system is out there. Some argued the use of stealth fighters in Desert Storm was the wrong utilization and that they should have continued to be non disclosed for a greater threat to the nation. In the end, they were used if for no other reason than to send a message to the Russians and the Chinese. So, here in rest the issue. Did the US utilize a Silver Bullet against the IRGC and then fail to execute the rest of the plan? Did the US misfire a Silver Bullet? Only a few folks know that real answer, but you can bet the enemy now realizes what may happen to them and they will change. Those weapon’s platforms may have damaged command and control networks, but the follow on strikes that would have physically destroyed them didn’t take place.  Here is the key to my posting this discussion today. Political leaders must....MUST... have an understanding beyond paying attention to a briefing for a few minutes when it comes to 21st Century warfare. You can call back aircraft. You can selfdistruck ICMBS, but can you pull back a weapon that is as powerful as a nuke ? It’s a new day with cyber and political leaders better do their homework. If we just waisted a key Silver Bullet, then the public will probably never know. 

ATTACKING US ASSETS. “ A BIG MISTAKE”? WHAT DOES IT MEAN? 

​“ I have a feeling it was a mistake”? What? So, some air defense battery commander was authorized to fire on US assets in the area of operations? So, some localized commander made a “mistake”? Is that what The Donald meant when he put out his tweet? Did the US President invent himself an offramp? Is this just his way of saying, “ I don’t want a shooting event with Iran”? Let’s take a look at the issue of the “mistake” and see what other issue may be out there that make this no mistake. 

How it works: 

​Can a regional commander have release authority over his weapons? Yes. Are those release authorities based upon some very stringent guidelines? Yes. Could a local commander be given bad information by a poorly trained weapon systems team as to the location of a hostile aircraft? Maybe. Tracking systems are far more accurate today than just a few years ago and the reporting of inaccurate locations would be unusual even for a poorly trained unit. Would that unit know the signature difference between a drone and a manned aircraft? Yes. Would the commander of the IRGC have a fiery speech ready based upon the “mistake” of a local commander? Folks…..there is the sticking point and it’s not just that sticking point that has me worried about The Donald’s desire to avoid an increasingly aggressive Iranian government. 

Other key indicators: 

​I can’t remember if I addressed the issue of IRGC and Al-Qud forces moving out of typical operating locations in Syria and Iraq a few months ago, but I’m fairly sure I did. Have I mentioned the decaying relationship between Tehran and Moscow? Yes. Have I mentioned the decaying ability of Tehran to pay Hamas and other proxy fighting units?  Yes. Have I mentioned the stories of Iran’s leadership moving the IRGC and Al-Qud forces under the Iranian regular military and how bizarre that seemed? Yes. Has it seemed like the old men in Tehran have become more embolden in the past month…6 ships attacked…increased advanced weapons fired into Saudi by Iran’s proxy fighters in Yemen? What’s the mainstream media buzzwords….. more aggressive? Have Iranian militias begun to once again target compounds in Iraq that house US forces? Have Iranian forces fired upon US assets that were watching their actions as they approached ships they had attacked? And now……. has Tehran suddenly had a local commander make a “mistake”…. a mistake that was followed up by the IRGC’s commander’s emotional warning? 

Sometimes you just have to fight:

I get it. The Donald campaigned on not wanting to get involved in useless, never-ending wars but he is also the same person who said the US will be respected again. It seems what he is finding out is just how hard it is to have both goals. Was his approach to North Korea effective? At best, that answer is inconclusive, but it seems the Chinese just today placed the Dragon’s wings back over the Little Fat Boy for protection….so that has changed. The Iranian leadership has been effectively backed into a corner and is almost on it’s economic knees thanks to the approach The Donald has formulated. But….here is the problem and it’s a problem his staff seems to have forgotten, at least some of them. If you back someone into a corner and they believe they have no way out, they have two options, give in or fight. The old men in Tehran have chosen to fight and they may very well be willing to fight to the death. It doesn’t matter what the Iranian people want. Their voice has not been heard in over forty years. What matters to the tyrants in Tehran is staying in power and I truly believe they see no way out. 

​Can the critics of the US President make the argument this potential crisis is the result of the administration’s policies towards Iran? Let me answer that with a little slice of reality. If the nuclear “deal” that Obama signed in the middle of the night would have continued, the risk of a full scale war between Israel and Iran was a reality and a reality the US could not stop. The Mullahs have a vision for coverage of their power and that coverage is far larger than Iran. That vision openly calls for the destruction of Israel. Wishing this reality away like the Teletubbies of the EU want so desperately is simply allowing the issue to become critical. If Tehran is attempting to push the US into a fight, a fight they anticipate the rest of the world will demand the US stop and sit down at the negotiation table, then the events of today are not going to be the last. More “mistakes” are going to be made and I’m not sure how many times The Donald can blame an overzealous local commander. ​

​I think this fight is coming and I’ve written about what type of fight this could be. A fight that is much different than the mistakes of Iraq and Afghanistan. It was a post I did both on this blog site and on my podcast site just a few days ago. Thank goodness I did those, because I really don’t feel like going over that again. As for the US President. Sometimes you have to fight and worry about public opinion afterwards. That time is closing in on him.