THE NERO OF MEXICO. AMLO IS IN MORE TROUBLE THAN HE THINKS.

Well, it didn’t take long, but AMLO, who I will now refer to as The Mexican Nero, is finding himself in DEEP…..DEEP…trouble. A few days ago, I posted my opinions on the issue of having a plan incase Mexico turns into Syria or Albania. At the end, I made the prediction the actions of Mexico City would determine how soon the US would need to have this “plan” in place. Well, let me tell you why I think that time is much closer than I believed just a few short days ago.

Distractions:

            Historically, what does every government leader do when he or she believes they are in trouble? Yep, they look for a distraction. The greater the threat to their staying in power, the greater the distraction must become. When Nero became El Presidente of Mexico, he made a commitment not to go after the drug cartels, not a statement, a commitment. Why? Well, for one reason, the percentage of those inside the government he was going to be in charge of paid their bills with cartel money. He had to find a way to show the people he was going to “clean up” the Mexican government, but he had committed to leaving the cartels alone. That created a huge, almost insurmountable problem. How could he show the people he was different but not kick sand in the face of the organization that truly ran the country?

Daily Talk Show:

            The Mexican Nero is on TV, Radio, Podcast, Twitter, Facebook every day, but the event that sticks out the most , is the daily TV Press Briefings. Day after day, he tells the story of how he is cleaning up Mexico. He speaks of the level of corruption he will no longer tolerate. He names  Mexican agencies that are conducting graft at all levels and he usually ends with, “no more”. For the first month or so, this seemed to work, but then reality caught up with him. As he stood their talking about the inequities of jobs, education and living conditions, the reporters sitting in front of him began to ask a universal question, “ What about the violence”? When Nero decided to tell them, the violence was down and “stable”, he forgot the reporters had access to this aggravating item, the national crime stats. Here he was painting a picture of all the social injustices in Mexico and the people began to only ask one question, “ how are you going to stop the killings”?

Look over there!

            What has become his answer to the question he doesn’t want to address? Answer, the quickest form of distraction is to yell, “look over there”, and that is exactly what he has now attempted. If you see the spear coming at you, you need to place bodies in front of you!  All those corrupt Mexican agency heads, they are being placed in front of the public’s spear, but here comes the real problem. What happens when you run out of bodies to hide behind or worse, what happens when those being placed in front of the spear decide to fight back?

            Nero is quickly running out of allies inside a corrupt government. His stance seems to be to keep the “common / poor folks” on his side. Burn everything else down, but make it look like it’s not your fault. If you are sitting inside a Mexican agency and you see Nero proclaiming your office is corrupt, what are your options? How about you turn to the organization that pays you to let them operate in Mexico as they wish? How about you ask that organization to turn up the heat, a heat that only Nero can be held responsible for? Why is the murder rate already of 2018, a record year for Mexico? What level of internal conflict is taking place inside Mexico City?

Signs of even more trouble:

            Just yesterday, Nero gave yet another speech about the pending release of “ all “ political prisoners in Mexico. Just how does that address the out of control murder rate? Look, let me get to the point. Nero is not  looking for solutions to the murder rate. He is building his defensive forces around his administration. Making promises to outlying Senators about the pending release of all political prisoners is an attempt to do one thing, buy allegiance for a pending conflict. You can only toss so many Mexican departmental heads in jail. You can only fire so many agency heads. You can only put so many bodies in front of the spear, but in the end, the reality is going to arrive. Nero promised to leave the cartels alone, but he is using the people inside his government to distract the public from what the cartels are doing. Oh, by the way. When he identifies these corrupt officials, he is removing the very people the cartels are relying on. How do you think that is going to go over? Nero is closing himself off inside his fortress of Mexico City and he plans on having his Farmer / peasant Army protect him from the truth. Last note. Military leadership in Mexico. What is their opinion of what is taking place? Folks, I will now call him Nero for one reason. It appears this guy is fine with letting the rest of the nation burn as long as he thinks he won’t be blamed for it.

            Meanwhile, back in the US…………….well……………………….. I won’t go there just yet.

Picture. I saw this post on Twitter this morning and thought, that's perfect!  

 MEXICO’S STABILITY AND THE ISSUE OF A “BUFFER ZONE”.

            The situation in Venezuela reaches critical mass, thanks to the US’s enemies and the US’s poor track record in the region, and a massive wave of people begins to head North. Colombia closes its borders, already nearly complete, Brazil follows Columbia’s lead and a Human Mass Migration, a real “Mass” 300/ 500 thousand starts to move North. Panama, Costa Rica, Honduras Guatemala all open the doors at both ends with the intent of everyone just passing through…..Think Turkey and the march to Europe. Next stop Mexico. Does Mexico turn them around? If they can’t turn around three thousand, how do they turn three hundred thousand? Does Mexico simply let them in and provide for their new citizens? Have you ever read Mexican law on illegal immigration? Those same Southern and Northern doors that Central America utilized are put into effect by Mexico City. The next thing you know, the US border is looking at a real wave….. not just a Caravan”, but a title wave of people. Think it can’t happen? Why not ask the governments of Europe?  Think the enemies of the US are not pondering the continued utilization of a new and powerful weapon, the weapon of Mass Migration? Can that weapon lead to the destabilization of the US? Again, go ask the governments of Europe. Okay………………………………..here is the question. Then what?

Buffer Zones:

            What did Turkey implement to respond to what took place in Syria? Yes, they had the issue of the Kurds to deal with, but does anyone doubt the Turks did not decide to hold this mass movement of people, as much as possible inside the nation they were coming from? Did not the Turks play the game against the EU, the same EU that looked down their noses at the Ottomans, that led to these mass migration movements into the EU? A few million people in a very short period of time. Just how would the US deal with such an event? Could the US send them to the growing list of Sanctuary Cities? Well, we’ve seen how that proposition turned out. What does the US do with a real wave of people heading North? If that’s not hard enough to contemplate, try adding a completely destabilized Mexico!

            I will tell you what the operational response is to such events and it’s a time-tested concept utilized throughout the world. Buffer Zones. Buffer Zones are the desperate attempt by Nation States to limit the impact of traumatic events along their geographic borders. So, the question becomes, does the US implement a Buffer Zone on US soil or on Mexican land? The reality is, many of the private land owners along the US border with Mexico already feel like they don’t really own the land they live on. Don’t believe me? Get in your car and take a drive down and asked them. Here is my last question. Does the Mexican Government go along with this plan and if not, then what?  

Contingency Planning:

            I had a great conversation today with a guy named Daniel Horowitz. You know it’s good when I am walking in the rain out on my property and I don’t worry about getting soaked. We talked about a lot of things Mexico, but there is one I decided to come back inside and hone in on. Planning. When Y2K was going to take place, I was on the development team, a joint team to include the military, for the city of El Paso. The short story was, everyone was worried about the city of Juarez walking into El Paso all at once. Sound crazy? Well, it wasn’t at the time and it shouldn’t sound crazy now. The bottom line was, we had a “plan” It wasn’t a very good one, but we had a plan. That makes me wonder; What’s the “plan”? Mexico and a few others fall apart; what’s the plan? Now, some, the military, FEMA, DHS, they love to “plan”? I was part of that world for years. What’s the plan? Better yet, is there a plan that has the words, “Buffer Zone” in them? Think the topic has not come up before? I have one word for you. Pandemic.

            If you are one of those people, and I am one of them by the way, that doesn’t like the concept of camps in Buffer Zones for people who are scared and mean no real harm, then you better be asking, “what’s the plan”? Here is my advice to this concept of, “What’s the plan”? The US better have a plan to prevent this level of crisis from starting. If you wait until the title wave has formed, then you are going to give ground regardless of what your level of humanitarian compassion may be. The US needs to figure out a policy for the region that doesn’t allow our enemies to weaponize mass migration, because it’s a weapon they have already tested in the Middle East and they are convinced it works. Don’t believe me. One last time. Give Europe a call.

“CONFUSION” BETWEEN US AND MEXICAN TROOPS ON THE  BORDER? YA…RIGHT!  

            Well, the story goes, once again, there was “confusion” between US forces and Mexican SEDENA forces on the US border with Mexico in Texas. You see, there is this area that is nothing more than a thick brush and a small amount of water and as such, the  members of SEDENA were, “confused”. Let me take a moment here to toss the BS flag onto to field! Let me go over a few issues that made he reach for my BS flag.

1.     Calling the river, a small body of water with some brush during an event that took place during daylight. Well, whoever is trying to tone this story down, you have to do better than that.

2.     Does any Member of the Mexican military not understand the area they are working in?

3.     Do any of them not know a small river is the boundary between the two nations?

4.      Do any of the Mexican military members not recognize the uniform of the US military?

5.     Is there not a deconfliction Rep at NORTHCOM to make sure such events don’t take place?

Okay, I could go on and on, but here is my analysis of what took place and I will tell you, my thoughts are based on a, “Been there…..done that” environment on the Texas, Mexico Border.

Corruption at every level:

1.     Are there members of SEDENA who are corrupt? Yes.

2.     Are there units of SEDENA that are corrupt? Yes.

3.     Are there Unit Commanders who are corrupt? Yes.

4.     Are there senior leaders in SEDENA who are corrupt? Yes.

5.     Are there senior, political leaders in Mexico who are corrupt? Yes.

6.     Does this raise the possibility this was not just some “confused” event? Yes.

7.     Would NORTHCOM, the US Military Command for the US, do everything in its power to tone down and even make this event go away? Oh you bet they would….. Not the first time.

What Happened:

            “ The US service members reported they did not see any identifiable seals or symbols on the individual’s vehicles and couldn’t identify any patches or name tapes on the uniforms except for the Mexican flag.

1.     Mexican Special Ops working the border area in a “sanitized Ops? BS!

2.     Without deconfliction at NORTHCOM? BS!

3.      No vehicle markings, what unit’s motor pool did they come from?

Right about now, anyone who has ever worked an operational mission is reading this and saying, BS! Who isn’t saying BS? Why, the US government. Interesting.

Not my First Rodeo:

            I’ve talked about this before but let me go over it again so you get a better feeling where I’m coming from. Several years ago, I was part of a CODEL, Congressional Junket, that took place in West Texas. In that CODEL, civilian Law Enforcement members gave statements about an event with shots fired along the “river”, where what seemed to be a Mexican military unit appeared to be assisting a drug movement recover a load of drugs from a sunk vehicle in the river. You know….that little bitty river with brush all around it. Unit flashes were seen on the front of the SEDENA vehicles and a whip antenna was seen next to a person who looked to be giving orders over a radio. Well….when the dust settled….the answer became, it was a drug cartel dressed to look like SEDENA, to even include the proper vehicles and markings. Yes…..BS…..complete BS…not “Confusion”. But then, the whole event just went away. Does this story have some commonality to what took place on April 13^th of this year? Could This Sanitized team have been providing route security for a major drug movement? Let me ask you something. When you hear of a large surge along the border, do you ever stop to think that “surge” is preplanned? Is it designed to draw the attention of the US assets in the area in order to move a “load” across somewhere else? Just ask any civilian Law Enforcement or Border Patrol member who works the Texas / Mexico border and see how many stories you immediately get back.

Look. This was not “confusion” but, “confusion” is the easiest answer to the political leaders who are always trying to dance around the issue of the corruption in Mexico. Is the entire Mexican military corrupt? No. Is it nearly impossible to distinguish who is and who is not? Yes. I remember when a good friend from the DEA told me, “If the Op includes SEDENA, be careful”.

What took place on April 13^th? I think most of us who have worked that area know. Is it the first time? No. Will it be the last? No.

            SIDE NOTE:

                        US forces being armed with a side arm? Someone needs to be fired over that decision.  

RUSSIAN, US AND ISRAELI “COLLUSION” THEORY. 

So, the “rank and file” of the Syrian military was upset with the latest attack from Israel? So, some of the leadership feels the Russians and the US are supporting Israel’s actions in Syria? What was their first “clue”? That support has been taking place since day one of the Russian operations inside Syria.

Why Now?

            Why do these “rank and file” members speak to this issue now? Did fear keep them from making these statements, statements they’ve known all along were true?  Has the level of frustration just now become an issue? Was the location of the attack the new twist? Nope. It’s been hit before. Was it how it was struck; from Lebanese airspace? Nope. Look, Iranian and Hezbollah assets in Syria have been under attack for several years now, so why did some of the Syrian military members finally decide to say something?

Is the Bromance coming to an end?

            I’ve addressed the issue of the so-called alliance between Iran, Russia and Syria on multiple occasions, but for the sake of clarity, let’s take a quick refresher course and I promise I won’t take the approach of some condescending Academic looking to sell their next book. Iran is one thing to Moscow….. a Pawn……. A Pawn that is a proxy fighter when called upon or manipulated into such actions. To the Mullahs, Syria is a Pawn….. a nation with a subservient government that bends to the will of Tehran and its vision of the future for the region. The idea that Moscow will determine the outcome of Syria is unacceptable to the Mullahs. These old men may be delusional, but they recognize the game being played by the Russians……. Act like they are a friend until the movement in time that friendship is no longer needed and then……. The Mullahs sleep with the fishes.

            Again, a few weeks ago, I commented on how important it was the Mullahs dragged Assad to Tehran and did so without Moscow’s permission or knowledge. Inside the halls of the Kremlin that action was not going to go unanswered. Yes, Moscow had been letting the IDF have it’s way in Syria, but pulling Assad in for “consultation” without telling the Tsar, well….that was a step too far. Did that lead to the Israelis attacking last week? Someone would have to prove to me it didn’t. Iran is pushing it’s agenda for Syria and that agenda is not designed in Moscow. How does this answer the question as to why the Syrian military finally spoke up? They were told to speak up! They were instructed to call out Moscow and place the blame on the Russians and good luck to the Syrian military leaders who didn’t follow those orders….orders coming from the Mullahs. Rock and a Hard Spot? Why do you think the statements were from “unnamed sources”? By the way, if the whole thing was made up and no Syrian military leader said anything about the Russians being in bed with the US and Israel, what an absolutely brilliant move on the part of the Intelligence Community!!!! Sadly, my bet is, the story is true. As much as I would like to believe the IC could pull off such an information operation, I am more convinced this event is another true indicator of the fragile Bromance between the Iranians and the Russians growing weaker by the day. Sure, the Russians will come out with some statement about the alliance is stronger than ever. They may even send a few more ineffective toys to the Syrian military, but in the end, one strategic fact cannot be denied. The future of Syria and the region is not a common vision between the Russians and the old men in Tehran. Pressure to expose that division is critical to those that don’t want to see ether side reach their vision quest. Side Note. If you think the US is Hell bent on keeping the Russians from determining the future of Syria, you may be in for a disappointment. Iran is target number one for the US and Israel is the proxy fighter for that task, and that fighter is undefeated in the region. By the way, when the Tsar decides it’s time for the Mullahs to go, well………… the fish will have company.

CHINA AND THE HEMISPHERE STATEMENT

Thanks to my Twitter friend, “W”, for showing me this article as it was one that truly gained my attention.

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-04-02/china-sends-over-100-troops-venezuela-defiance-us-warnings

China joins into the game of sending troops plus supplies and surprisingly enough, the total number sent was eerily close to the Russian figure. Something new….seeing Chinese military members in Venezuela or the region for that matter? No. One only has to go looking around the Panama Canal and notice the inordinate number of 6ft plus, 2 percent body fat, Chinese “maintenance workers” to realize the game being played in Venezuela is not new to the region. So, what is happening here? Is it worthy of the IC putting the information on the President’s morning briefing and making the cutline? Yep. How do you know? Because of the way John Bolton reacted last week, that’s how you know. His statement about the “Hemisphere” was not lost to those who make decisions in Russia and China, but the grins that statement resulted in were also not lost on those in DC who monitor reactions. By the way. The US has it’s share of “Contract / Support Workers” near the Canal😊.

What does it mean?

            Is the concept of the US’s adversaries creating problems in Hampshire new? No. Are the Chinese and the Russians working hand in hand on the events in Venezuela? It appears so, at least for now. Is China doing this as a true combined operation with the Russians or is something else taking place as well? Has the US made it public it will work to limit China’s expansion? Yes. Could Chinese leadership see the constraints placed on Iranian and Venezuelan fuel as a byproduct of that attempted limitation plan? Yes. Could China see the pending military aid increases to Taiwan as a measure that needs to be countered? Yes. In the end, is Venezuela as important to China as Taiwan? No. So, is China willing to push this event to the point of being a true crisis? No. Is the US willing to compromise sales promises to Taiwan for the reduction of Chinese actions in the Hemisphere… in other words………will the US trade Taiwan for Venezuela? No………….not even close! Then what does China really think it will gain out of this stunt? China will get the fuel it needs with or without Iran and Venezuela. It simply has too much money for everyone to hold the line and besides, this is not just about fuel. It’s about regional authority……it’s about the future of the Chinese nation. Wait….what about the Russians? Well, to keep this short, Moscow has the same desire. If the West is going to continue to creep into the old territories controlled by the old Soviet Empire, then the counter move in the “Hemisphere” is the logical answer. Just another example of the new “Cold War” you might say? Well…………….maybe……………………..but the odds of someone screwing this version of the Cold War up is much higher than in the past. The Russians and the Chinese are not going to commit to World War III over the Hugo Wannabe, but they may sit back and watch Guaido be tossed into jail. If that happens, Venezuela falls into a full-scale crisis and you can bet the US mainstream media and the US Democratic party will blame The Donald for  anything that takes place afterword’s. Is that disruptive to the US? You bet it is. It’s almost as disruptive as the Human Waves being coordinated and sent to the US border. Yep. 120 troops here and 120 troops there is not much to fret about, but then again, that’s not the real issue anyway. I will end this with the same question I always ask when speaking of the future between the Dragon and the Bear. When you rest your head on your pillow at night in Moscow…………. who do you truly fear….the Dragon or the Eagle?

THE NEXT OPERATION INSIDE GAZA:

            Should I be addressing the findings of the Mueller report this morning? Should I be talking about the political circus that has gripped the US for over two years? Well, maybe, but if you have followed my post over the years, you know I spend little time on politics and the games that are played inside the US. Does it upset me? Yes. Do I focus on it? I try not to and, in that statement,, let me move on to something I think is important today, perhaps far more critical than many waking up in the US this morning realize.

Short Range, Medium Range, Long Range.

            When you live in a nation the size of Israel, what is the definition of “range”? From where those that wish to spread violence stand, any size rocket can have the results they crave. You can shoot a rifle and gain the world’s attention. For the people who live in Gaza, the ones that have nothing to do with rockets and firebomb balloons, every weapon in the IDF’s arsenal can inflict pain and tragedy. Take a small area that is full of people who are in a struggle just to live day to day, on both sides of this conflict, and insert those who only wish to propagate violence for the purpose of prestige or to fulfil the task of others and you have a recipe for what is about to happen yet again. Now, let me be very clear who I am talking about here. Those people who have inserted themselves inside of Gaza who have one purpose…..violence, those are the ones that have lit the fuse on the next major conflict inside of Gaza. Not the people in Gaza trying to find some level of medical help today. Not the people in Gaza who are trying to find a way to convince their children they can go to school today. Not the people in Gaza who have now heard the news stories or even witnessed the mobilization of IDF units on a scale larger than they have witnessed in the past. The people of Gaza who have no dreams of violence are now once again preparing for the worst. They are finding ways to gather their families and loved ones in a safe place in a city so small, hiding from the pending violence is impossible. These are the people who are falling to their knees and asking the Lord, “why”? These are people who share a commonality with the people in Israel. Fear. Fear of what is taking place and a fear of what may come once again. Are they correct? Is this time going to be different? Will the IDF strike empty buildings and then stop? This is where the real fear is coming from, for both sets of people know, the answer is most likely yes.

What is different this time:

            For all the talk of “range”, range is an issue that has little meaning to Israel. Where does the technology for these “homemade” rockets in Gaza come from? Who supplies the materials needed for such “homemade” weapons? Do the Mullahs and the Iranian military leaders truly believe Israel and the US don’t have the ability to analyze the structure of these weapons and determine their true origin? No, they are not that naive. What they are is confident. Confident the pressure on Israel to not over react is too great. Confident this latest event will be like all the others…… Tehran’s proxy fighters launch an improved weapon into Israel and the IDF is limited to nearly worthless counter air strikes on empty targets…..targets that still have value by the way, but that is a much more detailed discussion for another day. What the Mullahs are is confident. Well, let me tell you, in the history of warfare, many of the most critical errors made by “leaders” were based on Confidence.

            The Mullahs pulled Assad into a meeting without the Russians being in on the “plan”. Why? Simple, because the Mullahs have never intended on letting Moscow shape the future of Syria. Where they “confident” Moscow / Putin would overlook this embarrassment for the sake of not showing cracks in the Iranian, Russian so-called Alliance? Most likely. Was that a strategic level error on the Mullah’s part? OH… I can assure you it was. Have the Mullahs anticipated the US’s intent to limit Iran’s influence over Syria and Iraq. Yes. Have they convinced themselves unleashing one of their primary proxy fighters in Gaza is a way to distract the US? Remember what I said about the error of “Confidence”.

Desperation:

            In battle, what is just as dangerous as reckless “confidence”? Desperation! How long do you think it took for Moscow to let the Mullahs know ether verbally or non-verbally, Putin’s displeasure with the Assad stunt? Do the Iranian military commanders understand the impact of the Russians agreeing to let the US and “others” maneuver into a position to greatly change the capabilities of Iran inside of Iraq or Syria? Did the forced Assad trip potentially change the “game” in the region? By the way, if Assad is smart, “forced” is exactly how he better have shaped this trip when Putin called him……if Putin called him. What is the life expectancy of someone who double crosses Putin, when that someone is a proxy puppet? If the Mullahs are not over confident then they may very well be desperate. Yes, these limited rocket attacks have been taking place for some time now, but the targets they are reaching has become the issue and those targets are not being reached without the support and authority of the Mullahs. No one understands this better than Israel. So, what is said here? How does the so called leadership in Hamas respond to these attacks?

Abbas and Hamas:

            What is the one thing Abbas and Hamas have in common? Actually, it’s two things. Profit and power. The future wellbeing of those people who are praying and seeking shelter as I write this is not the concern of Abbas or Hamas. For Abbas, it’s yet another opportunity to show that Hamas cannot be trusted and has no compassion for the people of Gaza….. a slice of land Hamas took from Abbas. The death and destruction that might be about to take place in Gaza is good news to Abbas. Sick, but true. As for Hamas. There is only one set of individuals in Gaza they care about. The members of Hamas. The money and weapons they receive are based on their willingness to do someone else’s bidding. The daily thrill of walking the streets dressed like a Warrior is far more exciting to a young man than getting up at 5am and going to work in a bakery or some other manual labor job. The pool of Pawns is deep enough to keep the blood flowing for some time to come and the old men who manipulate Hamas know this.

            Look. I could go on and on, but the truth is simplistic if not sad. Gaza is yet another proxy for the ongoing struggles in the region. The more the Mullahs see Arab leaders talking to Israel, the more they are convinced their time is running out. Pulling the stunt with Assad may have set in motion events the old men in Tehran simply could not have anticipated. There can be only one question remaining. What does Israel do? Yes, it’s election time and yes Israeli citizens were injured. Does that play into this event? You bet it does? Did that factor into Tehran’s support for this latest attack? Yes. Do the old men in Tehran worry for the safety of the people in Gaza? No. Have they made a decision that could cost perhaps hundreds if not thousands of lives? Most likely. Here is the reality. The only side of this next event that will take into consideration the safety of the innocent, is Israel…..and guess what….the Arab Leaders know it. Playing games with Putin’s plans…………………………… A very risky concept for a group of old men trying to hang on to a 40 year old dream.

Dear Mullahs. Don’t believe for a minute, the move on Hamas is the only reaction you will witness from Moscow. Syria and Iraq had their courses changed with one trip by the Eye Doctor.

RAND CORPORATION REVIEW OF THE SELF-LICKING ICE-CREAM CONE.

            All right. My disclaimer upfront. RAND Corp. Have I read their “works for long? Try a few decades. Have I ever seen them come to the conclusion the US doesn’t need to spend huge  sums  of money and do so quickly? Nope. I mean, if you have followed them like I have, when was the last time you heard them say, “ In conclusion, the US need not worry for at least five to ten years and can reallocate defense spending to some other areas of society in the meantime”. Nope…..never! There’s always a pending crisis that must be averted by getting out the checkbook. Does RAND have a direct relationship with the West’s / US / Military Industrial Complex? Silly question, so let’s move on.

The latest report:

            Several sources addressed the latest RAND report  on the potential outcome of a war between the US and a combined China, Russian event and how the US would be beaten and beaten badly. I must confess, I’ve not read this latest report, but the comments I’ve have found lead me to believe it’s the same old song and dance. Spend and spend a lot and spend it quickly. Sidenote. Take a look sometime on who goes to work at RAND, or where ex-RAND members go. Enough said. Okay, so the scenario goes something like this. The Russians make a move on Ukraine and the Chinese make a move on Taiwan. It’s seems they both strike first and they both do so at nearly the same time. Now again, I’ve not read the report, yet, but I will tell you that is a huge “assumption” to have as a Starting point. It also appears the authors indicate just how bad the initial strikes are to the US’s ability to respond. Crippling seems to be the message. Alright, that’s where I toss the first BS flag.

Preparation for conflict:

            If you want to sell the idea of spending more money on more military hardware, then you have to paint a picture of threat and that threat has to be superior typically in strength or capability or both. For a report to indicate the US military would be caught unprepared for actions by the Chinese and Russians at the same time it would have to anticipate a complete failure on all intelligence operations on a global scale, to include US Allies. The discussion of losing US airbases before aircraft could be launched or moved can only be given a level of believability based upon a complete, “cold start” operation by both nations. Can the Russians and the Chinese coordinate a first Strike / Cold Start operation without enough indicators to warrant a higher alert status by Western forces? Someone better be able to show me that at the training and exercise level before I believe it. Look, again, I have not read this latest report, but the idea of losing such a significant percentage of combat capability from the very beginning seems to be self-serving, especially in the “you need to spend more money” business. It’s my opinion, the indicators of such a Force generation cannot be hidden from modern-day intelligence. Preparation actions are some of the primary areas watched 24/7/365 by the IC and I find it impossible to believe such a combined Russian/ Chinese event could take place with the US sitting on it’s hands. Yes…I  know… Pearl Harbor!

Allies who don’t fight:

            Not only does this report seem to count on US forces being caught totally off-guard, it also seems to make the assumption key NATO nations will decide not to get involved. Wow…..there’s an inserted scenario advantage for ya. If you need your report to come to the conclusion you are looking for, then you need to have key segments that support your hypothesis. When I read someone commenting about this segment of the report, I thought to myself, “ yep, RAND and the Self-Licking Ice-cream Cone”. Germany and France just take a knee and agree to whatever Moscow tells them. Okay, it might happen, but my bet is RAND may need to think that way to get the report to the conclusion they are paid to find, but I would also bet you that assumption is not made in Moscow. Likewise, Japan and the rest of the Pacific decides to watch the Dragon swallow Taiwan and simply look the other way. Well…you know…. You need key assumptions to get to where you want to go. The US and its Allies are caught totally off-guard and key Allies decide not to fight. Now let’s see… the goal here is to paint a picture of the US losing a conflict. Well, those are two great assumptions that could lead one to that conclusion. I really do need to read this report. Let’s take one last issue and see if we can toss cold water on this hot topic.

The Cost:

            The US and it’s Allies are caught totally off guard and are unable to defend key sites because of a lack of air defense assets, hint…that is what this report is all about. To make matters worse, Allies won’t fight. Got it. That sounds really grim and if I was a clueless member of congress I might be briefed by a few retired Generals and so called, “Experts” from the academic world and begin to panic. But you see, I’m not a clueless member of Congress and I’m not looking for that multi BILLION dollar plant to be built or expanded in my district and…..I’m not a President who is already more than willing to spend more money on the military for the sake of saying I’m doing so. Let me add a factor here that may have not made it into the report, but I will read it and find out.

            You are sitting at home. It’s 7pm EST and as you watch your favorite cable news network babble on about current political events in the US, a “ Special Report” comes in stating it appears a large scale attack is taking place against US forces in both the Pacific and Europe. Within a few hours, all the reports seem to be true and the internet also seems to be completely compromised as part of this attack. Where in the world do you think the world economy is the next morning? After a few dozen Talking Heads run to the major networks to give their opinion on what is taking place and what might be yet to come, who is going to work? Who is letting their kids go to school? Does Wall Street open? No. Do other world markets open? No. Are the stores in the US overrun with panic driven zombies? Yep. Are the major networks in full scale emotional meltdown? Yes. Is it Trump’s fault? Yep. So, that’s it? That’s the status of the world the Russians and the Chinese are looking for and all for the sake of regaining Taiwan and the Ukraine? Both China and the Russian devise a plan, work out details too complex to even mention here and all of this happens without the Intelligence Community knowing and all with the outcome of a collapsed world economy? Just how much funding did RAND receive to develop this plan? Does the US need a greater air defense network? Yes. Has the US been so focused on the “little wars / Terrorism/ that it’s spent nearly the last 20 years building a force that is not a true battlefield network? Yes. Does that mean the Chinese and the Russians are going to risk everything they have to take back two small slices of land? If the folks at RAND need to help convince US political so called leaders the nation needs to refocus, then I guess this report fits the last three or four that have come out.  I will go read this Self-licking Ice Cream Cone from RAND, if I can, but someone needs to prove to me the Russians and the Chinese are willing to risk everything over two previous territories. Let the Russians and the Chinese believe their national survival is at stake and some of this may come true, but someone better have some really hard “facts” to convince me, a guy who watched this level of interaction on a daily bases, the Chinese and the Russian could ever work hand in hand, right down to the war plan level. Who does Moscow fear more? The US or the Dragon? Who does the Dragon fear? A group of people on a small Island that may show 1.5 billion people a better way of life? Now………..that is a real problem, but not a problem the Russians are willing to help the Dragon solve.