THE FALL OF IDLIB…..AND THEN WHAT?

            So the Tsar gets his way and Idlib falls, but not after perhaps the worst battle in the Syrian Civil War.  By the way. How did all the “Bad Guys” end up in Idblib? Who kept telling them they could leave the other battlefields and get a free pass to Idlib? Who arranged a single point of conflict that could be pounded into dust until whoever was still alive gave up? Yep. Sounds like Grozny all over again!

            So, lets assume the battle for Idlib is over and the Russians inform the world the fighting is over in Syria. Now, everyone knows the “resistance” fighters who survive will melt into the population with one of two, or both, results. The level of insurgent activity, code for death and destruction, will go on for years. The “resistance” will pop up in some other region, most likely Iraq / Northern Iraq. Yep, it’s like playing Whac a Mole over there. But, from Moscow, all you will hear will be how the war is over and what a wonderful job they did saving Assad. When Idlib falls, nothing changes and that is the reality everyone knows, just ask the people of Syria. Do they go home? Home to what?

Bills:

            I heard the Iranians talking the other day about being involved in the rebuilding of Syria? Now, that’s a joke. What are the Mullahs going to use to pay for this part of their “rebuild….that Toilet Paper they call currency? Oh ya…. And watch the Iranian population when you tell them the Mullahs are going to invest even more money in Syria and not Iran. Good luck with that strategy.  How about Moscow? How many BILLIONS is the Russian Economy, just ahead of the Iranian level of strength, going to invest in Syria? The ports and the airfields and that’s it. Power, water, schools, Law Enforcement, ect….ect…ect….you know…..day to day living…how much of that will come from Russian pockets? Yep. We all know the answer. The Turks? Ya….right! they might as well take a loan from Iran for all the economic strength the Turks have. And finally, here is the kicker for all three nations who are joined hand in hand to help Syria, they don’t care! Can Iran moved through Iraq and Syria and Lebanon? That is what they care about. Can the Kurds be kept away from the Turkish border? That’s what they care about. Can the EU continue to see governments inside their organization change based upon the threat of mass migration, that is what Moscow cares about? Yep. Who makes Syria a “Normal” nation again? Nobody and that includes the US and the West. Moscow can win the battle of Idlib and then declare victory, but nobody is going to heal Syria. No body healed Darfur. No body healed Iraq, Afghanistan and I could keep naming them. War is easy. Killing is easy. Rebuilding a nation that you don’t live in or depend on, that is not only not easy, it’s just not necessary.

Assad or no Assad:

            If Assad stays in power, Syria will be a haven for insurrection and violence. If Assad is removed from power, Syria will be a haven for insurrection and violence.  Does anyone think the person waiting to be bombed in Idlib really cares? So, when there is no good answer, what is the ultimate answer? Let me give you a hint. Who spent HUNDREDS of BILLIONS of US dollars on Iraq? Yep. What’s the best chance to get the West to spend money on Syria? Answer. You must make the US get really involved, not just setting up training camps in the North. How can you do that with The Donald in the White House? Answer, you have to get the US involved operationally and then pray The Donald only is around for two more years. Then….then…you have to have another apologist like Obama voted in. You have to have a US President that again sends BILLIONS of US Tax Payers dollars to the UN so 30 cents on the dollar can actually be spent on Syria. Here is the real….real bad news. That’s not going to happen! Times have changed and that means the window for the good old days of Uncle Sam spending BILLIONS on Nation State Rebuilding has closed.

            The Russians will keep control of the areas important to them and let the rest rot. The Iranians will struggle to keep the Russians from striking a “deal” with the US over Iranian influence in Syria, buying their time to the exit of Trump. In the meantime, the IDF will continue to destroy anything they need to in Syria with the Russians just looking on.  Oh….did someone mention the Chinese might want to spend money in Syria? Here’s the cold reality of that idea? What’s in it for China? Oil? No. Gas? No. What then? Why spend BILLIONS on that burned out hole in the ground? Answer, they won’t. Life amongst the rubble piled in the streets. Homes based upon how many unbroken bricks your family, what’s left of it, can dig out of the rubble, that will be the new normal for Syria. The great Battle of Idlib. In the end, just more misery and more bodies to pick out of the heap. There is only one true savior for the people of Syria. The Military Industrial Complex and the money they spend on US elections. Iraq and Afghanistan are so wound down, it’s hard to make any real money right now. Syria, and perhaps a war with Iran….now…………….. there’s some real funding! Assad better not use those chemical weapons!

ERDOGAN, PUTIN AND ROUHANI MEET ONCE AGAIN, BUT WHO’S MISSING?

The Three Stooges or the Three Musketeers, you pick. Two huge egos and one Puppet. Three nations meeting to decide the fate of another nation and all three act like they have the same goals, but they can’t even  put together one paragraph for a press release that doesn’t sound ridiculous. As silly as Egodan’s statements sounded, it was the Tsar that made me stop and tilt my head like a Dog! “ Syria’s government has the right to retake all of it’s territories”. Wait….what?....... I have a question……. If the three of you believe that statement, and I don’t think you do, then why was the leader of the nation you are trying to save not invited to the meeting? As soon as that statement sank in, I read the next one from the Puppet about the US being in Syria illegally. Really? Can the Puppet produce a copy of the invitation letter sent to the Sultan? At what point in time did Assad say, “come on in Turkey and slice out a hunk of land for yourself”?

Everybody wants something:

            Everybody wants something out of the Syrian Civil War, and few, if any want the same thing. The Tsar wants to have a dominant footprint in the region of the world that produces the one item he worries about. Fuel. The Tsrar wants to disrupt NATO to the best of Russia’s ability and that explains the “bromance” with the Sultan. The Sultan wants the Kurds kept in check, but the Sultan also wants the West / EU / to see he doesn’t need them to be on the world stage, thus his side of the “bromance” with the Tsar. The Iranians? Well, the Iranians, want to keep the Arabs killing each other as long as possible and somehow wake up to the delusion the Mullahs rule over all of Islam. Now, that’s a problem because the Sultan has that same dream. The Tsar? He could care less about Islam as long as it doesn’t interfere with his vision of a Russian Empire. So there you have it. Just like I said at the beginning of the Arab Spring, you have three Empires all striving to take the lead in the region. The Russian, the Ottoman and the Persian Empires.

Why does the US stay?

            The Donald is like an old tune from the 80s….  “ Should I stay or should I go”, by the Clash…..clash…how appropriate. As of the 7^th of September 2018, it sounds like the US intends on staying, at least until The Donald tells someone they are leaving again. Training the Kurds and “others” makes sense if you are going to stick by them long enough for them to make an impact, but then again, what impact is DC wanting any of them to make? Yes, the so called training sites are great for infiltration ops into Iran, whoops…..did I say that? Never mind, but then again, the US doesn’t need that. They can just fly over and take all the information needed. So what is the US’s mission in Northern Syria….really? A lot of us think it’s just a great stick in the eye of the Tsar. Does the US need to be there? Not really? Does it upset the Russians and the Iranians and the Syrians? Well, it upsets the Iranians that’s for sure. As for the Russians, probably not. As for Assad and his so-called government? Who cares….he wasn’t even invited to the meeting. So, when the US hears, “you need to leave”…..the answer really comes down to, “ Make me”.

What is old is new again:

            When you get right down to it, the beginning of the conflict / Civil War / in Syria has its roots in the Arab Spring. A rebellion against unjust living conditions both economically and socially. The Mullahs saw it as a Western plot to toss out authoritarian governments in the Middle East, after all, the US President was nearly a card carrying Socialist and he was in love with the Muslim Brotherhood. So, in the eyes of Tehran, The Arab Spring had to be stopped at all cost. They had beat back those cries for justice in 2009, but here it came again and this time it had the US’s backing. Well, like any virus, something I called the Arab Spring for several years, it got out of control. The next thing you know, the puppet government in Syria was shooting their own people in the streets and the military was facing desertions on a daily basses. Just when the Mullahs thought they had an effective backfire in Syria, one that would keep the Arab Spring from Iran, the Russians show up with a completely different set of goals. If the West was going to push Moscow in Eastern Europe and go back on their word, then Russia would inject itself in the Middle East. Not only that, but they would begin to entice the unstable Sultan away from the EU and perhaps even NATO. In the eyes of the Mullah’s the Russians showed up and like any Mob loan, the interest rates for saving Assad’s rule were more costly than the actual loan.

            Trump comes to power in the US, and the left goes nuts. Not only does the US start to come apart at the seams, but the DC outlook to the whole Middle East changes and changes radically. The next thing Tehran knows, the people are back in the streets of Tehran marching for change and justice. Everything they tried to head off by letting Syria burndown has now come back to their front door. Somehow this Businessman wins in the US and the next thing Tehran knows, the whole game changes. Not only are they no longer going to make money off the West, but now, the guy in the White House decides to cut Tehran off at the bank account. Yep, things went from great to Shi- in no time. Yet, here they stand, the three Empires, all dreaming of a region they believe they will soon rule. I realize there is a lot of room on that stage they took their picture on today, but the best picture would be the one that shows each of them holding a dagger behind the other’s back.  Idlib. The Turkish answer is a Turkish trained “Security Force”. Let’s see how that one goes over when the cameras are gone. If you live in Idlib, stay in your bomb shelter. That photograph won’t save your life.   

NASRALLAH,  AL-SADR  AND SOLEIMANI. WHAT’S GOING ON?

                       

            The “rumor” goes, Nasrallah and Soleimani  have reached an impasse. Rumor has it that the Iraqi military stopped a press conference by a pro Iranian / IRGC/ supporter. Mr. Sadr just formed a working government in Iraq. So what is going on? Could the reported rift between Nasrallah and Soleimani, two huge egos, be true or could this be just another level of information warfare designed to destabilize the old men in Tehran? From the Mullah’s perspective, they better pray it’s not true, but one thing is for certain, the stability of Iran continues to be called into question. If Hezbollah fighters are not reported in the pending battle for Idlib, then, people will ask why? Oh, I forgot one other rumor. Rumor has it, Iraq denied Russian overflights of Iraqi airspace. Do ya smell Mr. Sadr here? Back to what I said just a few days ago. If the Iranians can’t pay the bills of their proxy fighters anymore, both Hezbollah and the militias in Iraq, then what? If Nasrallah can’t provide another “ Green Flood” to Hezbollah’s base, then what? If Soleimani can’t give orders to Nasrallah, how does that make him look?

Plata O Plomo:

            Just a few days ago, I made the comment the Russians may be saying, “ Plata O Plomo”, to Hezbollah. Well, who knows, maybe Soleimani is saying the same thing to Hezbollah, or maybe Moscow is saying it to both. Hell….DC may be changing the site picture by saying,” Plomo”, to both Hezbollah and Soleimani. If all of this was not crazy enough, toss into the mix Mr. Sadr and his desire to be the ruler of Iraq. Perhaps Soleimani will tell Sadr, “ Plato o Plomo”, or Sadr may say to Soleimani the same thing. One thing is for sure, back in Tehran, it all looks the same. Not only is Iran struggling to keep some level of influence in Syria, now it seems Iraq is pushing back on Tehran. Perhaps Mr. Sadr smells the same thing. Perhaps he to smells the blood in the water for the Mullahs in Tehran? Mr. Maliki, the Iranian Puppet and a few of the Iranian supported militias may attempt to counter Mr. Sadr’s new coalition, but that will only result in Sadr’s further entrenchment against the Mullah’s in Iran. Yep. The Iranian rial hit a low mark of 138,000 to the dollar in the past twenty-four hours. Try making payroll to Hezbollah with that toilet paper. If Nasrallah and Sadr are looking for a new “Daddy”, just how much longer can Soleimani hold on to a dying dream…. a dream by a bunch of old men who only see him as a servant? The conflict of Idlib may or may not consume the news from the region for the next few weeks, but the nosedive of Iran is still taking place? When does Soleimani jump out, or does he become a Kamikaze Martyr?

MOSCOW TO HEZBOLLAH, “PLATA O PLOMO”?

So, the Russians are reopening language schools in Lebanon? Russian “Cultural Centers, spy hangouts, are coming back as well. I’m sure this concept was run past Tehran for their support😊. So, here is my question. What does Hezbollah think of this? Do they run the country? Yes. Do they work for the Mullahs in Tehran? Yes. Do the Mullahs like the idea of Moscow moving into Lebanon? No. Are they going to say anything about it? Not out in the open they won’t. Is Moscow/ Putin / out to take control of Hezbollah? My bet is yes. Is Moscow out to gain control of the IRGC/ Qud Force? Again, my bet is they are. Why? Because the Mullahs have been too resistant to the wishes of Moscow and Iran is a mess. What better way to wipe the slate clean and still control the future of Iran than to control their thugs? The Iranian economy is in a freefall and no one is going to save it. From Moscow’s viewpoint, why not sit back, let the nation fall apart and then inject the leadership you own? How does Moscow pull this off? Easy, it all comes down to who pays the bills.  Young fighters in Hezbollah’s ranks don’t care about who is power back in Tehran. What they want is to get paid and to get paid on time. If the fighters are not being paid or paid on time, and then the Russians tell someone like Soleimani not only will bills be paid, but the level of support will go up, then what? Loyalty does feed the family back in Lebanon. The Persians have been sending the Arab Hezbollah members into the meatgrinder of Syria for several years, while the Persian troops sit back in airconditioned offices and play, “Advisor” …. A role no one really believes.

The New Alignment:

            If the Russian truly want to control what takes place in the region, then they have to control the major Thugs in the region and that’s Hezbollah and the Qud Forces. If Moscow wants the Mullahs to be doomed, then news flash….they are doomed and nobody tosses them a life vest….you know….that sinking ship I wrote about yesterday. With Hezbollah truly under Russian control then even if the Qud / IRGC / didn’t agree with the fact, there is little they could do about it. Hezbollah gets a paycheck from Moscow and the IRGC / Qud waits for bouncing checks from Tehran.

            Now, making all of this happen based on just the issue of money is just not the Russian way. You have to have a little hint of what bad things might happen to you if you don’t go along with the “offer”…..you know…… Plata 0 Plomo!  A few Russian “Centers / Schools” open up in Lebanon and the next thing you know, you get a text picture of your Mother or Wife walking down the streets in the Beqaa or Beirut with Two very large white guys just behind them. You get the picture. When you make “deals” with the Russians, you are handed a whole new playbook.

            Yes, things are changing in the region. Yes, the US and Russia may or may not come to an “agreement” on how the region operates, but one thing is a given. The relevancy of the Mullahs has run it’s course. Russia’s “plans” for their involvement in the region is based on control of oil and gas. Allowing the Iranians to resist Russia’s will by using their proxy Thugs is just not going to work. For Hezbollah, the message is clear. Go home and look who is walking the streets of your neighborhood. For Soleimani and the IRGC / Qud, you may hear the words Plata O Plomo again, but this time, they may be directed at you. Good Luck!

RUSSIA MANEUVERS IN THE MEDITERRANEAN AND IN VOSTOK?

            Its been hard to miss the hype over the past 24 hours about the Russians. The largest Ground “Exercise” since the Cold War. Then news of the Russians expanding their fleet in the Med with everyone saying it’s a counter to the US and Ally ships showing up near Syria…..oh ya…. I forgot to add the rumors of the US preparing to strike Syria over a pending chemical attack. Now, if you spent most of your day reading Facebook or Tweeting, you might see these two stories and think, good grief, that’s bad, real bad….oh…..look….Sally posted a new picture of her 3 year old! Even this morning, I sat and waited for CNN or MSNBC to run a story about how both these events are The Donald’s fault, but it seems the Russian collusion, obstruction of justice, paying hush money to Porn Stars is still the objective. Don’t worry though, you can rest assured if something does happen between the Russians and the US, it will be Trumps fault, why, CNN and their fellow Journalist may already have that story written. So, what is going on here? Why this impression of such a show of force by Putin? I will give you a better question to contemplate. Why not?

The Danger of Disunity.

            Has the US always been unique because of its ability to have a diversified government? Balance has been a key to stability in any Democracy. When the American people are split almost down the middle on the performance of the current party in power, that’s always been a sign of a “Healthy” government, right? Is that where we are today? Are we not just simply conducting business as usual? Nothing’s really changed, right? Wrong. Things have changed and they continue to change and those “changes” need to be recognized soon.

            How many times have your read about the “changes” to society brought on by the internet, social media, video games ect..ect…? How consumed are everyday people with issues that will not impact them? “News Alert….School Bus overturns in Illinois, five injured”. The public is bombarded with data from the moment they wake up until the minute they fall asleep, if they can sleep. When consuming large volumes of useless information becomes the norm, then it becomes very difficult to predict what impact that will have to society as a whole. Yes, some “experts” are writing books about this “change”, but the “change” is still taking place, even as they write. Just how much information about everything going on everywhere is enough? The Russians sailed three ships into the Med? It was all over Twitter and every other social media network all day long. So what? The Russians move three ships and it’s time to worry about war? Here is what worries me the most about the age of information overload. Are people ready to come to a conclusion within seconds in order to free up the time needed to go read or watch the next issue? Trump has been guilty of Collusion, Rape, Abuse of Power, and who knows what else since the day each story broke. Facts? No one has time for facts anymore. Ready Fire Aim….that’s the way we are heading. You take the historical balance of opinions in the US and you immerse it in the 21^st Century Social Media madness and you may no longer have a formula where “balance” creates stability. Balance becomes nearly impossible to maintain when the speed required changes by the minute. Wait…. I just got another new alert!

The Media:

            There was a time when the professional Journalist, working for privately owned companies, controlled the flow of information in the US. There was a time when a “good story” meant it would have to be backed by facts, things the Journalist could defend. There was a time the media didn’t look for a party slant, they just looked for the story. They were the Fourth Estate. They were seen as the guardians of truth. Simply put, the clear majority of the US public believed the media. Then the Fifth Estate came along. Yep….change. 24/7 cable news…..bloggers and then the real weapon….. social media. It was soon clear the ability for one party to gain and then stay in power would rest with controlling the message. That part of politics has not changed for thousands of years, but what did change was the type of weapon used to make it all work. People who wanted to influence the public’s opinions found their champions. They found their Billionaires that could create their own version of the media. Remember who started CNN and remember who he was married to, just an example😊. Cable news became the new political weapon and the Journalist needed to make these new networks work were students when? Yep. The 60s. As soon as the concept of this new form of information control was realized, the other side had to come up with their response. Yep. FOX news. From that point on, it wasn’t about truth, it was about ratings and power. Cable news could feed the US public 24/7 any message they wanted, and it worked, but then Social Media came along and with that the ability to control the message was lost. Not only was control lost, but more importantly, the ability to control volume was lost as well. By 2018, you could get alerts on bus crashes in India with no injuries within 5 min of the event. You could even watch the rescue taking place live.

Information as a Weapon:

            The concept of Information as a weapon has been around for thousands of years, but never has the weapon been so cheap and so powerful. In a society, such as the US, where people pride themselves on free speech, the ability to manipulate arguments gained a whole new level of importance. Balance of opinions became target. If the US population was always split, then how can that split be utilized to destabilize the nation? Answer, the constant flow of information that is one, worthless to day to day life and two, controversial to one side or the other. Yes. The weaponization of social media and the internet became a top priority. Why attempt to defeat the US on the battlefield, when you can get them to tear themselves apart from within?

            I’ve said this before and I will say it again here. The Russians and “others” goal was not to “own Trump”. Their goal was to disrupt the nation itself. Hillary’s Team was so confident and arrogant about the race they never paid attention to the fact they were manipulated. Trumps and his team were so arrogant and ignorant on how the process worked, they to were manipulated. What was the goal here? The further decay of the US social balance. What was the weapon of choice? The internet and social media. Here is the scary part. It worked far beyond the wildest dreams of those who plotted the event. The US population is no longer balanced. The desire by 90 percent of the media to see Trump removed has the other part of the nation just waiting to see if the process starts. If you are as old as I am, then you remember 1968, 69. I remember my parents thinking the country was coming apart. The difference was, most of the nation blamed an outside force, Communism. Today, we blame each other.  So, what does this all have to do with the Russians show of force in the Med and their largest military exercise in forty years?

It’s a Test:

            Years ago, the West and the Soviet Union use to do what we called, “Wire Runs”. Each side would spin up a full scale exercise and run right up to the dividing line…the wire. Yes, it helped each side work out the bugs in their battle plans, but it also had another goal. It allowed each side to see how the other reacted. It allowed each side to gauge just what the other side was thinking. So, you see, this is a Wire Run. The Russians have not done one in years, but that was then, and this is now. Are they looking for how NATO responds? Are they looking for what electronic tricks the IC uses to assess the event? Yes, but that’s not the real objective. The real goal is to see what reaction takes place inside the US population. It’s hard to pull CNN and others away from hunting Trump right now, but let a US and Russian Navel vessel bump each other, another Cold War test, or fire near each other, we can both miss if we want to, and let’s see what message comes across CNN / FOX / MSNBC and social media.

            How bad are things really? Just how divided are the US people? What message would the major cable news networks put out if a near crisis event took place? How fast would CNN and MSNBC blame Trump….the same Trump they claim is Putin’s Lapdog? Would the US population support their President in a war? What good is the might of the US military if the nation will not support the Commander in Chief? Is the US a Paper Tiger? That’s what this is all about, well almost. Let me end this rant by making a point the media has once again missed. Where is this largest military exercise in the past forty years taking place? Vostok! Where is Vostok? Near any NATO forces? Let me approach my point in a different way. Who use to own the area of Vostok? From the viewpoint of President Putin, who is this exercise really for? What is the real message? I know, the Chinese have been invited to take part. That makes the message even more intriguing. The location of the exercise is not lost on the leaders in Beijing.

IRAN….SYRIA…. IDLIB …..THE STRAITS AND THE “WHAT IF” GAME.

            Alright. I’ve not done this in a while, but it’s time to play my favorite game. If you have followed me in the past, you know exactly what that means. Yep. It’s time for the “What If Game”! Today’s topic of choice is the pending events in the Idlib area of Syria and the Straits of Hormuz. Are the two areas related? Yes, by one issue, the desperation of Iran. Rouhani was served up yesterday by the Iranian Parliament as they try desperately to pin their economic crisis on someone other than the old men in Tehran. In Syria, it seems the Russians are doing exactly what I’ve said they would do from the day they took their picture with the Iranians….. pimp the Iranians for the sake of Moscow’s goals. The future of Syria, from Moscow’s perspective, is going to swing with the issue of Idlib. As for the Kurds and the Turks, well, that’s for them to figure out afterwards. Iran is in a desperate position and their actions in the past two months have shown just how desperate. Now, it appears the future of their involvement in Syria is being manipulated, in the open, by Moscow, something the Mullahs have feared for the past several years. Yes, the Iranians signed an agreement with Syria this week. Yes, that paper will be used by Moscow as cover for not openly pushing Iran out of Syria, but the Iranians didn’t take that step for Moscow’s sake. They don’t give a flying carpet about Moscow. Right now, it’s all about Iran and the vision the Mullahs have had for decades going up in smoke. So, let’s get down to it. Let’s play the “What if Game”. It’s a game the folks in the IC love to play and if you’re lucky, when you retire you can write a book or two.

What if?

            What if the new, Syrian version of Hezbollah, the NDF and the other Shia militias are not allowed to have a slice of the pie after the Idlib event is over? What if they are told to head back to Iraq or somewhere else? What if Iran’s Syrian Hezbollah is simply told, “Get out”? Who is the future Police Force for the area? Don’t be too surprised if it’s the Russians. If not Russian Military Police in total, then Russian Leadership. Without that handshake with the Turks, I’m not sure they will go along with any other part of the plan. Score at that point…Turkey and Moscow … 1… Assad and Iran 0.  You can raddle off names of groups and names of leaders of these groups. You can site what group is from where and who they used to be. You can try to impress people by doing these things, but in the end, it’s all smoke and mirrors. What is important is the reality of who is really calling the shots here, and it’s not Tehran.

What if?

            What if the US and Russia don’t come to some agreement on the status of Northern Syria? Does the input of Tehran and Ankara really matter? No. Can they make whatever the Russian and the US come up with difficult to execute? Yes, but the “what if” question is about the US and Russia, so let’s focus on that for a minute. Does the Idlib area matter to the US? Does it matter to the Russians? To the Russians it’s a signal the task is almost complete. The process of saving Assad, not for Assad’s sake, but for countering the West in Eastern Europe, is a goal that must be reached. The Keeper of the Gate for all other issues in the Middle East becomes Moscow. How does the US and its Allies prevent Iran from interfering in the region? By getting the Russians to keep them in check. Here’s the problem. That’s the Moscow version of how this should all go down. Here is the problem with that vision. Team Trump and Israel may not go along with that vision. Moscow believes  Idlib may be the light at the end of the tunnel, but the ability to blow that tunnel is also in the hands of those Moscow only thinks they can control. Yep. Iran and Turkey. If Moscow thinks they can manipulate the relationship between Tehran and Ankara, and they don’t, then reality will be a hard pill to swallow.   You see, Idlib may be close to a final curtain call for the Civil War in Syria, but it’s a far more complex event than previous actions in that war. The players all have different agendas and handshakes are not going to solve any of them. If the US and Russians don’t come to an understanding on Idlib, then the proxy fight may be worse than any that have been witnessed. In the past few days, the stories of US and Allies ships moving into the area along with an increased Russian naval footprint are signs the “agreement” process is not going well. Russia’s MOD statement about the US and Allies preparing to attack Syria based upon a false chemical event was a carefully designed event. If that wasn’t enough, the rumors of Hezbollah’s reluctance to get involved in the pending Idlib fight is even more puzzling. Okay. Next “What if”.

What If?

            What if Hezbollah has a new Daddy? Have they seen the handwriting on the wall with the Mullahs and the Iranian economy? Do they think the small amount of funds from the EU will keep Iran afloat? Time and time again, I’ve talked about the actions of General Soleimani. His official trips to Moscow. How many times has he sat down with the Russians? Has every one of these meetings been approved by Tehran? Did the Russians ever ask to sit with him without his Boss knowing? Are the rumors of Hezbollah leaving Syria just part of a well-planned, disinformation event? Is it all designed to cast doubt in the minds of the Mullahs in Tehran? Or……… Does the Arab blood leadership of Hezbollah see the sinking Persian ship and decide to find a new partner?  Is Hezbollah going to have a role in the battle of Idlib or have they found out from their new Masters there isn’t going to be a decisive battle, at least not one that requires Hezbollah support? Would Moscow love to be the new secret controllers of Hezbollah and the Qud? You bet they would. Let the Mullahs be strung up from the construction cranes in Tehran and then simply control the future of the proxy fighters. Let Iran turn into Iraq as long as the flow of oil and gas is controlled by Moscow. If there is not a fight in Idlib, and there may not be, then the future of the Iranian supported Shia Militias is completely up in the air. They will need someone to champion them, someone to pay their bills. Iran’s being pushed out of Syria and its proxy groups know it. So, what does Iran do? Yep. Next, “What if”?

The Straits:

What If?

            What if it all goes bad for the Mullahs, and by the way, it is. What if, despite all their efforts, the future of Syria is not determined by Tehran, but by a deal cut between DC and Moscow? The Iranian economy is in shambles and growing worse by the day. Those that are ordered to beat back the protestors have families that can’t buy food. How’s that going to work for the Mullahs? I’m going to keep making this statement until history proves me wrong, or I get to say, “ I told you so”, but Tehran is not going to go quietly into the night. If they lose control over Syria, then someone is going to pay the price somewhere else. If they are losing control of Hezbollah, then their options are even more limited. Without Hezbollah, the ability to draw Israel into a limited conflict is nearly impossible. Direct actions by Iran would result in direct actions against Iran and even the Mullahs are not ready for that suicidal walk. Without the proxy militias support, you have to pay them to keep them, even the Iranian influence in Iraq is almost completely destroyed. A loss of Syria and Iraq would mean the loss of Lebanon and that’s about as bad as it can get for the old men in Tehran, well, except for the protestors showing up with construction cranes! At this point, the options will be extremely limited, but one school of thought comes to mind. If you cannot win, then take as many of them with you as you can. The Straits. What single event could impact the rest of the world, at least temporarily, more than the Straits? If you doubt this theory, why do you think the Iranians use this topic repeatedly to threaten the world? What impact would a 2018 shooting war in the Straits have on the world oil markets? What country would not want to see this event over as quickly as possible? Did you answer Russia? If so, good for you. 120 dollars per barrel, that’s music to the ears of Moscow, not to mention the ability to sell military hardware after the war is over. Pushing the Iranians over the cliff and letting the world blame the US is a great concept and one that is not lost to the logic of Mr. Putin. The US is so dysfunctional over Donald Trump, CNN and MSNBC would probably be cheering for the Iranian Navy as they screamed how the whole conflict was Trump’s fault. Can Iran be manipulated into launching an event such as this? Putin is the Puppet Master and never forget that reality. So, how would Russia insure this event doesn’t get completely out of control? By having a substitute government in the waiting, one that has Thug support such as Hezbollah and the Qud Force, that’s how. The youth of Iran would only have to hear that an interim, secular government is being installed as the fighting stopped and the population would be under control. Does all of this seem unreasonable? To many of you, it might. To me, it’s how the world really works. Idlib is not going to go the way Iran wants it and that will lead to Iran being more desperate than ever. A desperate government is a government that can be manipulated and who is the Puppet Master?

NATIONALISM ON TWO FRONTS AND PENDING CHAOS ON THE OTHER.

            Chinese Nationalism and Russian Nationalism is a reality. A pending political and perhaps social crisis is also a reality, but not in the other two Super Powers. It’s the pending future of the US. If you are in the category of people who respond by saying, “ Oh..China has it’s problems and just because some think they are turning Nationalistic doesn’t mean it’s true”….or, “ Putin is not as popular in Russia as everyone thinks he is and Russia is ready for change”, then you need to dig a much deeper hole to stick your head in. As a matter of fact, you may just want to cover yourself and use one of those illegal straws California is so upset over.   Nationalism is a reality in China and in Russia and they both smell blood in the water, US blood!

Get Trump:

            Let me go back to a few statements I’ve made in the past and then I’ll show you why they matter now more than ever. Did the Trump Campaign attempt to find “dirt” on the Clinton Campaign? Yes. Do you think this was some great anomaly? Do you really believe past Campaigns, and I’m talking all of them, have not done so? Do you truly believe the US’s political system is that pure? No, I know you don’t. No one in the US does, just look at the polls that depict the publics opinion of Politicians. Did Trump’s Team collude with the Russian government to get “dirt” on Hillary? No government ever plays this game at a level that would expose direct ties to other countries “officials”, at least no modern government. Did Hillary’s team seek information on Trump? Did they reach out to individuals or organizations that have shadowy backgrounds, backgrounds that would have indirect ties to Nation States desires? The answer is yes to both campaigns. Is it possible that both campaigns were manipulated by other nations and I say other nations, because you are a fool if you think the Russians are the only ones that play this game, that is unless you have some other reason you wish to pin the whole event on Moscow? Just how many elections do your think the US has openly and covertly attempted to manipulate? Do you recall my past comments about an event in Chile in 1973?  Whose “Boy” was Pinochet and if that one is not good enough for you, whose “boy” was Ho Chi Minh? Look. I’m not going to spend the rest of my time on this post debating what Hillary did or what Trump did. The issue at hand is far more important than that. The issue is not what they did, but why the response came about the way it did and what are the repercussions?  

He wasn’t Supposed to Win.

            In the US, you hear this time and time again. “ He wasn’t supposed to win”. That’s the battle cry of those who support Trump. “ He rigged the election with the Russians”. That’s the battle cry of those who hate him. In a nation that has been split down the middle since the Civil War, with elections that have been won by less than 3 to 5 percentage points, it seems the animosity between the two parties would be seen as nothing new. Here is the real danger, the 21^st Century danger. Those two camps in the US, Conservative and Liberal have pulled away from the center at an alarming rate. Yes, that has taken place in the past. Just look at the President Johnson events shortly after Lincoln’s assassination, but the world was not connected then. The power of Social Media was not there. The weaponization of information on a global scale didn’t exist. Hit someone with a stick in California with ten people standing around and five minutes later, the world is reading on social media about the “Riots” in the US.  Yes. The sleaziness of Politics has not changed. The lust for power has not changed. What has changed is the most powerful weapon that man as ever invented is now in the hands of governments. social media. It’s cheap, it’s easy and it can bring down a nation in a matter of days, just ask the Egyptians.

            Trump was not supposed to win? Why? Because the polls said so? How many times have you heard how useless polls have become? To those that support Trump, Polls are not the reason. “The Deep State”. That is the reason. That’s where the, “Drain the Swamp” concept came from, not the first time we’ve heard this statement, but Trump made it work. The Deep State? Who makes up this so called Deep State? You can listen to a dozen, “experts” and everyone of them will tell you to buy their book and you will see the light. Yep. Scaring people is big business, but is the concept false? Is there no such thing as a Deep State? Sorry to say, but, yes, there is such an organization and who the member are should not surprise you. What is the “end-state” of the Deep State, that is the far more important issue.

            I once walked into an old friend’s office and noticed he had put a poster up on his wall. It was the picture of an old American Indian Chief and below him were the words, “Democrats and Republicans…. Feathers off the same Bird”.  The Bureaucrats….. the folks who believe they are the Autocrats of both US political parties. Here’s the catch. The members of the “Deep State” are not just government employees. I know, that is nothing new and you’ve heard that time and time again but let me give you a new twist to contemplate. Members of the Deep State are not citizens of the US. When it comes to money, HUGE money, citizenship and party politics will typically play second fiddle.

            So, along comes this guy who figured out how to win the Electoral College in the US and he beats out the family rep to the international “Deep State”. The Clintons spent years manipulating the flow of money on a global scale. Deals were set. The Russian’s would be placed back on the pedestal as the world’s true villain and the funds that would have to be spent to stop them once again would be in the trillions. Remember, we are talking about a person who was the US Secretary of State when she announced that Putin had to be stopped. You want to talk about medaling in other nation’s elections? Try that statement on for size. The only problem was , the person she convinced her Boss to support ended up dead, kinda like Vince Foster. Well, the next thing you know, Trump is saying things like, why is there still a NATO and why doesn’t the UE pay their share of the bill? Wait….wait…. this guy is going to upset the natural order of things. Who does he think he is? So, you see, the world had a rhythm. The so called “Deep State” / the international Deep State, had it all figured out and then Trump won! Trump, the guy who looks at every meeting like a CEO Board Meeting that’s reviewing cost and investments. All of this is old news. Every word here is part of much a larger topic that has been tossed around since the day Trump won. Let’s get back to what’s important. Let’s get back to the, “so what”, part of this story, because it’s the “so what”, that can change the future.

Nationalist vs Chaos:

            The Dragon is on the move. One Belt, One Road and 1.5 Billion Chinese being led by an authoritarian Emperor who has temporarily, and I do mean temporary, partnered with the Russian Bear and its Tsar. The Western International Deep State Team has been manipulated into leveraging the growing divide inside the US and it seems the Eagle is heading for a hard landing. The people in the US are so focused on the Crisis half are cheering for and the other half is praying against, that few of them see what is coming. Without unity, there is no desire. Without pride, there is no effort. Yes, the old saying once again comes to the forefront, “ A divided nation cannot stand”.  How does a nation, even one as powerful as the US, withstand the pressure of two completely Nationalistic Super Powers when the US seems bent on tearing itself apart?  Look. Here is the real bad news. This is not some self- cleansing event. When you hear CNN and MSNBC talk about the US Department of Justice working to bring “Justice” to the nation, it’s a “Justice” only part of the nation believes is true. Have you heard CNN or MSNBC or even FOX speak to the issue of what may happen if President Trump is removed from power? What percentage of the nation will believe any finding DOJ comes up with? What percentage of the US believes the DOJ has been turned into a political weapon, or worse, a weapon of the dreaded, Deep State, a state both US parties seem to be beholding to. Just how much damage can the US withstand? It’s largest cities have virtually nothing in common with 95 percent of the geographical landscape. For decades, it’s been the Liberal left that has marched in the streets of the US’s major cities, marches that were supported by the KGB in a quest to weaken the nation. What if that tide turns? What if the people who support Trump take to the streets because the don’t accept the findings of the DoJ? Has anyone thought about where the US may be heading and all over a process the US political system has been using for over 100 yrs? If the verdict is, “Trump didn’t beep his horn and the law states you have to use your horn before you pass someone on a roadway”, then what? Yes, it’s a simplistic analogy, but the point is important. Who is the victor at the end of the day? If we remove a duly elected President, who gains from the event? Two of the Three Super Powers in this world praise their leader, yes some at gun point, In the Third, they are ready to lynch him and anyone who supports him. You tell me who wins in the end?  For those of you who scream for Trump’s scalp, are you prepared for what comes afterwards? I am😊