THE IRANIAN REVOLUTIONARY GUARD CORPS. IRAN’S “SHADOW GOVERNMENT”.

            In a world that seems to be controlled by “rumors”, thanks to social media, I read an interesting one this weekend. Rumor. Soleimani may be on the “outs” with his Boss in Tehran. Not only General Soleimani, but others in the IRGC. Now, that is interesting, especially to a guy like me, a guy who asked the question, “Where does Soleimani’s loyalties lie”? It was only last week that I asked this question on this very blog page. Yep, this “rumor” caught my attention and that led me down the path of yet another question, one I’ve asked before. What is the ultimate goal of the IRGC?

Brief Background on the IRGC:

            Some folks have gone out and written books on the topic of the IRGC, but I’m not into academic level analysis. Let me give you the down and dirty about the IRGC. The organization was started for one primary reason, the so called “Revolutionaries” didn’t trust the Iranian military…..period….. end of story. By the way, did they have any reason to? Ask Turkey. Now, not long after this poorly designed organization was started, Iran stepped into the eight year war with Iraq, a war that saw the US and it’s Allies openly supporting Iraq and So Damn Insane😊. What happened to the fledgling organization in that eight year war? They were decimated time and time again. By the time Tehran decided to give up, the IRGC was not even on the rest of the world’s radar. The old men in Tehran decided it was time to invest in a force that could execute the plans Tehran had for the region and this investment was not going to take place for an organization they didn’t trust and had just lost an eight year war.

            Flash forward a decade or so and you see the “new” IRGC. The IRGC that controls large areas of Iranian business, policy and development. What you see is the Iranian version of the Nazi SS, complete with a Hitler Youth Group look alike called, “ The Basij”. Now, jump to current times and you see an even more powerful organization. An organization that forms the backbone of the Iranian government. Simply put, without the IRGC, the old men in Tehran are nothing and nobody knows this more than they do. Let’s face facts. The IRGC is the Shadow Government of Iran. Everyone that studies Iran, knows this to be true and you can bet the US and the IC world believes that statement.  

The Haves and the Have Nots:

            Just where does the “regular” Iranian military stand? If you want a quick answer,  take a look at the two Iranian Navies. Yes, over ten years ago, Iran supposedly reorganized their two navies, on paper at least. One was given the primary job and one was given the “backup” job. Guess which Navy was tasked with the most important job? Who received a lion’s share of the funding? Yep. The IRGC. The climate of haves and have nots has been growing from day one and its growing as this post is being written. A climate of haves and have nots, not only with day to day Iranian citizens, but with military members as well exist in Iran. Are there interservice rivalries in other nation’s militaries? Yes, huge ones, but are those nations at the brink of social unrest? Are those services known for not training together, not working together and please don’t tell me the Iranian military “works” together. If you know them, then you know their ability to conduct combined arms, fires, operations on a modern battlefield are non existent. The reality is, the military the old men in Tehran feared when they first came to power, is still not trusted today and thus not funded and not utilized. Who knows this better than the men who serve in that “regular” military? Okay, back to a statement I made for a minute, because I know some of you are going to say, “Iran has a very capable military”. Where is their version of Joint Readiness Training Center / JRTC? What it the location of the Iranian, National Training Center/ NTC?  Name me the Professional Military Education classes / PME / that prepare Iranian Army leaders to  interoperate with Iranian Naval forces and Air assets on the battlefield? Look. You can buy all the weapons systems you want. You can have as many parades and live fires as you like. That does not make nor will it EVER make you a modern military capable of 21^st century warfare.

Trust:

            Iran’s leadership includes senior members of the IRGC. How’s that for integration? Not only does the IRGC control a large segment of the Iranian economy, they actually control part of the government itself. Shadow…remember the word. It’s seems the old men in Tehran, “Trust” the IRGC implicitly. Okay, then why the “rumor” of replacements? Yes. It’s just a “rumor”, but someone started it. It has some purpose behind it. Can someone create a perception of doubt by starting such a “rumor”? Ah yes, the art of Information Warfare comes back to the table. Or….. the “rumor” is true! The “rumor’s origin is a “reliable source”? Here’s one that is even better. The “Rumor” is wrapped in the storyline the “source” is reliable. The “source” is on the inside!  You have to love information warfare, perception management, Effects Based Operations….call it what you want……you just have to love how it pulls on the strings of “trust”. Someone let General Soleimani hear yet another “rumor” about his fate. Does he shrug it off? Does he wonder just how desperate the old men are becoming? Does he see this new movement of youthful “hardliners” as a group that no longer values his abilities or actions? What conversations has he had about the future of Iran and who has he had those conversations with? Trips to Moscow……remember the word…….shadow!

            Has someone successfully convinced the old men that changes need to take place in the most important branch of the Iranian government, the IRGC? Have the Mullahs really begun to worry about the leadership of the one organization that could remove them from power, the organization they built to protect them? More importantly, what is the most important issue to the IRGC? Do they see a pending war they cannot win? Do they see their own people having to be gunned down in their towns and cities to keep the old men in power? Do they see what they have feared since 2011, the Arab Spring…..Persian style? They can fight the US and Israel and Saudi and a few others. They can inflict economic damage on the West, but that damage will have tremendous repercussions for Moscow. Is that what their most vital supporters want? Does Moscow intend on keeping the old men in power at the cost of a regional war? Would an Arab Spring type event not be much less costly to the overall desires of the US and Moscow and even China? Just how important are these Mullahs? In the past few days, the people of Iran have been taking to the streets demanding not just change, but food, water, jobs, you know….a life! There is one man who can make all of this go away. General Soleimani, and the old men in Tehran know it. He can make the people of Iran go away in a Civil War blood bath like the one he is involved with in Syria or he can make the old men in Tehran go away. What option is it the Mullahs must believe he is contemplating? Why the “rumor” of Soleimani’s departure? The IRGC is a Shadow Government and General Soleimani is the most known Iranian military figure in the world. A figure that has made trips to Moscow. A Moscow that is cutting “deals” with the US on the whole region. If the Mullahs still own property in France, they may want to have someone get the place ready. Perception Management and Effects Based Operations, you just gotta love it! “ You’re Fired…..NO Old Man….You are fired”!

NORTH KOREA AND “ARMY DAYS”. WHAT’S THE REAL MESSAGE?

            Intelligence indicates North Korea is continuing to build their ICBMs?  Shocker! Meanwhile, China and it’s very nervous partner, Russia, hold “Army Days”, a live fire exercise designed to sell military hardware. Oh ya, the Iranians where there as well. Read between the lines on that one. And finally, yesterday, Moscow states they cannot prevent Iran from staying in Syria. Put a few things like these three together, and what do you have? A clue…. That’s what you have …… a clue!

            The US / West / wants this and they want that. The US / West / wants Democracy and free trade and secular politics and so on and so on. Well, some nations, ones that happen to be very powerful, they don’t see it that way. They don’t see the US attempting to shape how the world should look. Their vision of how the world should work is not in alignment with the “vision” of the US and it’s Allies. In the end, most worldly people will say, “you have to have balance. You have to find common ground”. Well, most with that viewpoint have spent their lives in organizations that don’t deal with reality. They thrive in Universities or other versions of closed societies. It’s a philosophical viewpoint that has historically resulted in even larger conflicts.

Words:

            I’ve had this conversation on many occasions, but let me go down this road one more time.  Words. When opposing sides sit down and try to solve “issues” with words and at least one of those in the conversation has no faith in the process of “words”, then the outcome is predictable, or at least it should be. Sitting down with North Korea was based upon “words” and photographs. One side made the meeting happen because they said they would address the nuclear issue and the other side sat down because they were told to do so. That was not and will not be, a recipe for success. Now, it’s discovered the North Koreans have continued building ICBMs. Let’s get something clear. Western Intelligence has known from day one the process was continuing. What changed was the decision to let that statement get out. Who let it out and why? Is anyone asking that question today? Okay, let me drive on.  North Korea head the threats. China heard the threats. Everyone in the world heard the threats coming from DC and yet, the North Korean program continues, at some level. Why? How could everyone hear what might happen to North Korea and just smile? What is truly more frightening? The fact the program is continuing or the reality the threats were ignored? 

Have the tables turned?

            For years now, I’ve listened to all the so called “experts” in the US and the West, talk about how China has too much to lose. Their economy is too dependent on the US and Western trade. They would not risk a confrontation with the US and its Allies. This has been the worn-out analysis on the issue of the US’s interest in the Pacific for over twenty years now. Times change, but the important fact is, you must recognize the change. Perhaps it’s the Dragon that now believes, “The US cannot go to war. Their people are too divided. Their media spends every day working to destroy the current administration”. Look. It’s this simple and you don’t have to have a PHD from Georgetown to figure it out. Do other nations simply not fear the threats that come from DC? Has the “Expert” analysis opinion been flipped? Is it the US that is unable to risk a larger conflict with a powerful enemy? Is the enemy beginning to simply ignore the US? Do they smell blood in the water as the US seems fixated on removing Trump from power? Is there reason for US’s adversaries to feel confident? Who are the US’s adversaries?

Moscow takes a stand.   

            “The Iranians are playing a very important role”. That is the message Moscow sent Israel on Tuesday. Israel’s stance on Iran’s involvement inside Syria was made a few weeks ago and that stance has not and will not change. Does that mean Moscow will back Iran if the IDF goes after it in Syria? No. Does it mean whatever message the US tried to convey to Moscow on the issue of Iran was not received? Most likely. North Korea continues to build ICBMs and Moscow refused to push Iran. Looks like the US’s message is not being heard or worse, no one believes the message. Don’t forget. A great deal of money can be made by replacing all the items Iran may lose in a conflict. It just takes having to give up a percentage of the oil and gas business to those who show up with replacement items. I’ve beat that horse over and over again, but the point is an important one. Moscow is going to let Iran do as it wishes just as long as Russian interest are not placed at risk. As for DC’s warnings, well, Moscow doesn’t seem to care.

Army Games:

            Live fire sales pitches? Is that something new? No, not really. Live fire demos with the Russians, Chinese and Iranians? Is that something new? Given the environment Iran finds itself in, yes……yes it is! Does taking part in a live fire exercise with Russia and China mean the Iranians have found top-cover from the pending threats from DC and Israel? No. Is it an indicator of where things are heading? Yes. Iran would love nothing more than to have both China and Russia sticking up for the old men in Tehran, even if it was only limited to words. Again. Times are changing and Army Games is just another indicator of those changing times. Showing the world state of the art military hardware, hardware that can be purchased at a fraction of the cost of Western / US / EU / suppliers, that is the message from Army Games.

What is the US to do?

            North Korea is building ICBMs. Iran is threatening the Mother of all wars and the US media is cheering for the Special Prosecutor to bring a seated President to trial. Does The Donald threaten North Korea again? I would be willing to bet CNN and MSNBC already have the story written about what a chump Trump was with Kim. Does a twitter come out of the White House threatening Kim? What statement could the US President make right now that would gain the support of the 95 percent of the US media that hates him? Why would any of our adversaries believe for a minute the US is capable of a major conflict?  How confident are they the US is falling apart? Well, perhaps they are confident enough to keep building ICBMs that can reach the US mainland. Perhaps they are confident enough to fire on oil tankers. Do any of the Trumpaphobics understand it’s not the actions of Trump that threaten the safety of the US. It’s their actions. It’s their phobic loathing  that emboldens those who are ready to ignore the “words” coming from DC.

            As a reminder. Agreements are made between parties who have a common desire, goal. Military superiority forces all others to compromise. The US’s military advantage has force others to compromise for decades. People don’t like compromise. Many don’t even accept agreements.  We are on a wild road folks.

IRAN’S THREATS AND ACTIONS. JUST HOW DESPERATE ARE THEY BECOMING?

            As of the moment I write this, it seems the rumors of pending actions against Iran are not only continuing, but they’re increasing. Yes, political leaders and staffs use inflammatory  statements, sometimes for their own people and sometimes for their adversaries. It’s for that reason, many folks who watch the Middle East don’t overreact when such statements are made. But, as I said two days ago, that all changed with the events of General Soleimani’s words and the attacks on oil shipments. Now a new rumor is growing, but this time, it’s more than your typical rumor. The US is going to execute a plan to keep Middle East waterways safe? Well, two things. First off, the ability to do so depends on what the desired outcome is. Secondly, the translation of this statement is simple. The US is considering actions to neutralize Iran’s capabilities to impact the shipping in the region. So, the rumors of the US’s pending attack on Iran’s nuclear program may have been met with quick denial, and that is always worrisome, but the concept of the US and it’s Allies not tolerating what took place a few days ago, well, that is not a rumor. That is reality. But in all the talk of this pending conflict, a stranger message comes out of Tehran.

Iran’s Parliament Speaks:

            Ali Larijani makes a statement about possible “ negotiating” with the US. Wait…..what? a guy who is close to Khameini hints of possible negotiations with the Great Satan? By they way. It’s really hard to “negotiate” with a nation whose leaders refer to you as, “The Great Satan”, unless you are just looking to fill your own nations’ history books with your so called “accomplishments”, but let’s move on. Why would Larijani, a hardliner, make this statement now? With the war drums beating louder by the day, what is with a Hardliner giving hints? Even if he was genuine and received permission to make such a statement, who in the US would believe him? Well, maybe France or the rest of the EU, but that doesn’t matter. In the US  I.C. world, this is yet another event coming from Iranian leadership that is worthy of more pizza consumption. Here is the item those pizza folks will crawl all over. Is there a growing split inside Iran’s government? Is the economic and regional pressure becoming too much for a worn-out leadership team in Tehran? Does Larijani’s statement indicate, blood in the water? Here’s the read catch. To the planners inside of Central Command, it doesn’t matter. What matters to them is if they get the order to neutralize the threats to shipping in the region. Plans are always ready. Detailed plans that simply require last minute reviews, especially with your Allies. Larijani may have been told to make that statement, but then again, he may not have and the beauty of the IC word is being able to change the message someone gives. Even if he didn’t mean to show division in Tehran, smart people can take his words and create a new perception. A perception that he did so out of desperation and that means a decaying loyalty. Yes. The art of information warfare is a 21^st century is a skill that is growing by the hour.

If the order is given:

            Tell Central Command to neutralize the threats to shipping in the region and they will do exactly that. I worked there for a short period of time and playing games is not an option. No one understands this better than Iran’s military leadership, or they better! The Iranian Navy knows what their fate will be if they go into a true conflict with the US. Sending proxy fighters from other shorelines and then denying you had anything to do with their actions will not save the Iranian Navy. It may play well in Tehran, but the Iranian Navy doesn’t live in Tehran.

            Options are a common tool of the US military. The US Secretary of Defense most likely asked the CENTCOM Commander for “options”. Those options will be shown to the President and then a decision is made on what “option” to take. Now. Remember. We are talking about The Donald here! The US can send a clear warning to Iran and in that case, I would not want to be on the Saviz. That’s the kind of warning The Donald may wish to send. If that ship is the reason the proxy fighters are able to achieve shots on oil tankers, then that ship may become a new fish nursery. Let’s be very….very…..clear on this point. If the US leadership ops to remove the threat to shipping, then the potential consequences of that act have been briefed to a level of detail most of you would not understand. Yes, the US can decide to send a message to Iran, but as is the universal rule of warfare states, “the other side get’s a vote”!

Iran’s Options:

            Here is the most simplistic way to frame the question. Iran has no “good” options. The Russians will not defend them. The secret handshake with North Korea looks to be a thing of the past. China will simply sit back and watch what unfolds. The old men in Tehran cannot give in to US demands, although some of them make be quietly thinking about doing just that. Iran can continue to supply the proxy fighters in Yemen and perhaps even let them take another shot at an oil tanker, but we all know where that might lead. Iran can continue with wild threats and yet do nothing to implement any of them and that is a very safe course of action right now. Sound ominous but do nothing to invoke the wrath of The Donald; that might be their best bet. Even that option has huge pitfalls. Just today, the story broke about Iran’s currency hitting a new low. 100k rials to one…..one US dollar! What made the people of Iran walk into the streets? The economy. What does this story of the continued collapse of Iran’s currency mean to the old men in Tehran. Yep, nothing but more bad options.

            The Iranian story has been going from bad to worse for months.  Supporting an attack on oil movements in the region was a desperate and dangerous act and everyone sees it just that way. Some say it was a warning of just how desperate Iran is becoming and as such, everyone needs to think carefully about how to respond. Here is the problem. Does The Donald think carefully? Has the CENTCOM Commander provided his assessment of what could happen if the order is given to make the shipping lanes safe. Better yet. Did the US President understand the possible repercussions? Did he listen to his Secretary of Defense? What risk is The Donald willing to accept? What option does the US President believe the Iranians will take?

            As the midnight oil keeps burning in Tehran, another briefing is waiting in the hallway. It’s the latest update on Israel’s options. That briefing has a Russian annex and that annex has the same message from Moscow.  “ You are on your own, but don’t fear. We will come in and clean up what is left of you after it’s over. All we will require is control of your fuel industry”. If you think that is not the real message from Russia, than you don’t understand the real position Iran finds themselves in. Nobody wants a war in the region, especially a war between Iran and the US and Allies. Well, perhaps the word, “nobody” is a bit strong. A future King in Saudi may set his sites on the Saviz, or any other Iranian ship in the Red Sea. Why take the first shot? Why not let someone else get it started and then tell the world you have no choice than to end the event as soon as possible.

            I know this guy, we will call him “Dan” and he’s finishing a book about a Third World War. It seems this book gets started with a maritime incident between Iran and Saudi. Boy, I have no idea where that theory came from, but I know he’s about to finish the book😊

SOLEIMANI’S THREATS. DID HE SAY TOO MUCH?

            Yesterday, my pitch was based on the ever changing actions and words of the Iranian General who spent most of his life in the background of politics and his warning to the US. I commented a few of his statements had implications that most may have missed. So, let me go take a look at those statements and lets see what might have taken place.

Did he say Too Much?  
           

            Cool and calculating. Those are accurate words when it comes to the Iranian general, at least they were in the past. It’s also well known that most military leaders in the Middle East tend to make flashy statements and threats without a great deal of research. An interesting point given most Arabs pride themselves in “talking between the lines………..the message inside the message”. It’s a trait I learned over there years ago. So, what was said by Soleimani that should have caught the ear of those that know how to listen and you can bet the intelligence community heard him, or at least I hope they did!  Look. Here is the deal. In most “modern militaries”, official statements by senior leaders are well scripted and analyzed by very complex groups of both political leaders and historical experts. By the time someone like the US Secretary of Defense, although he has been known to say some interesting things, makes a public statement, what was meant and what the possible outcomes of that statement may become have all been reviewed over and over again. The bad news is, even then, they often have second and third order effects that no one truly anticipated.

The Red Sea is not safe:

The Red Sea is not safe with the US in the area? Okay, now that is one of the two statements Soleimani put out there I found disturbing. The Iranian threat has always been the movement of oil from the region, but historically, the area of concern has been the Strait of Hormuz. Over the past few weeks, the threats coming from Iran have been geared towards the Strait, or at least that is what many assumed. Then, two ships are fired upon off the coast of Yemen and the weapons that were used were provided by the Iranians. Does Iran think for a second everyone doesn’t understand what took place here? They threaten, and then one of their proxy fighter groups attacks. Who is the center element of the protection for these ships? The US and Iran knows it. So, the statement is, the Red Sea is not safe with the US in the area. Is Iran truly trying to signal to the US they may be pushed out of the area? Really? Now, earlier, I made the comment leaders like Soleimani often don’t review what they are going to say with the intent of not saying too much. If there is one way to get great intel out of the Middle East, it’s getting someone to talk too much. Come to think of it. It’s a great way to get intel out of DC. Did Soleimani intend to play his card this way? Did he intend to send a message the attacks on the two ships was Iran’s doing? If he did, he didn’t think that one through very well. Saudi “Temporarily” stops movement by ships. Did it impact the price of oil and gas that much? Perhaps for a day or two. Is the increased price of gas and oil a good thing for those that support Iran…..Russia? yes, but not at the cost of something that can become very….very reckless. Did Soleimani have the blessing of Moscow on the words he used? I would love to know the answer on that one, but my hunch is no. The Red Sea becomes the threat and the Iranian general seems to have placed the blame on the US. I have to wonder, just how does Soleimani think the US will respond to this threat? Oh, by the way. It appears the general is now speaking for the Iranian Navy. Didn’t know that was a job for the Quds. Perhaps Soleimani didn’t review his speech with his counterparts in the Navy?

We are closer to you than you think?

            That was the second statement that caught my attention. What? What does that mean? Now, that’s one the intel folks will have a field day with. Why, I can see it now, dozens of PowerPoint slides and hours of Rock Drills / Rehearsals at all levels. I bet that one statement alone cost the US Taxpayer about a million dollars in salary / manhours. Closer to the US where….how……with what? The US may start the war, but Iran will end it? I bet the doomsday club inside the intel world ordered 500 pizzas over that statement alone, not to mention the legions of contractors who will get paid by the word to analyze what that statement could mean. Yep, guys like Soleimani speak and people see dollar signs. Okay. Back to the statement. Again, the question becomes, did the general say too much? Did he let his grandstanding overload his brain? It happens all the time over there, but this guy is different, at least he used to be. What did he mean? What was he referring to? Fast Boats that are tucked away along the coastline? Boats that can launch ship killers? Do the Iranians really think we don’t know where these boats are? Do they understand that if they truly start such an operation, the Iranian Navy will no longer exist? Can that threat be tied to his Red Sea statement? I don’t think so. The ability for Iran to block the Strait or any other area in the “Red Sea” is limited and the price they would pay is beyond anything any Iranian military leader is willing to suffer. Yes. There is the issue of “tension” between the Iranian regular military and the IRGC / Quds.

            If the statement about how close they are is not tied to the ability to block shipping, then where else is this comment possibly pointed to? Could it be, the cool, calculating Soleimani is no longer just that? Did he say too much and give away something the US will dig for answers on? When you tell the intel community they may have “missed something” it drives them crazy. Did he mean to drive them crazy with a statement that has no meaning?

            Prepositioned. Is the general hinting, perhaps by accident, that Iran has prepositioned assets? The US has known for years Hezbollah has been active in Central and South America, but the theory, one I didn’t agree with, was it was based on fund raising. Not everyone believed that analytical line, but the final verdict usually revolved around money. Now what? With the statement, what does the Intel world go back and look at? Remember what I said about being told they overlooked something. I can just see the gears turning in any agency that has dealt with Hezbollah in Central and South America. Let’s just hope someone doesn’t get too paranoid. The next thing you know, there is a Qud / Hezbollah Cell behind every palmetto in South America. Funding. Boy would that be a funding bonanza for a few groups I know.

What does it all mean?

            Some will be charged with looking into what Soleimani said and why. Some will be tasked to see who he talked to before and after the speech. Some will be tasked with looking through every possibility based on what he said. The fact of the matter is, the general maid some very unusual comments in conjunction with an attack on two oil tankers. Oh ya, and now I hear the rumor of the US planning a strike on Iran’s nuclear locations. Funny. Two can play the game of words. Moscow’s media mouthpiece ran the story about the “pending attack” and you can bet that had the phones ringing in Tehran. As for the general. He is not the man I once studied. He has changed and I have to wonder if he is as skilled at messaging as he was at avoiding being in the spotlight?

SOLEIMANI TAKES ON TRUMP, BUT WHY?

            If you have followed my post for the past several years, then you know how often I have mentioned General Soleimani. Is he truly one of the most dynamic figures in the region? Yes. Is He the military figurehead for Iran? Well, he may not hold the title, but trust me, he plays the part. Is there love between the IRGC and the Iranian regular military? Don’t you believe it, and Soleimani is a big part of that story. So, what’s going on? Why did the General, who used to stay in the shadows of Iran’s day to day events, suddenly jump up on the table and pound his chest in front of The Donald? Has anyone paid attention to the growing influence General Soleimani has been achieving? I bet the old men in Tehran have.

What is he really up to?

            Again, if you’ve followed my post, you know my theory on Soleimani. Yes he is loyal, or so it appears, to the fanatical old man in Tehran, but where do his loyalties ultimately lie? It wasn’t that long ago I posted my comments about the IRGC attempting to build Persian Nationalistic feelings with the youth of Iran. Persian passion, not Shia, Radical Religious passion. Why? Why did they undertake that path? What are they worried about? Rebellion and resistance, that is what the IRGC is worried about. If Tehran can’t get the youth of Iran to follow the religious zealots, then perhaps they can get them to find their nationalistic pride? So, if that is the IRGC’s plan for saving the country from a rebellion, an Iranian Spring, then who is the logical leader of such a movement? Soleimani, that’s who!

            Now does it make sense why the General pointed his finger in The Donald’s chest….. a dangerous move I might add. In the past few weeks, the General has openly indorsed the statements of the Iranian President, a man Soleimani has not had kind words for in the past. Yes, the argument can be made the Iranian President was trying to save his own skin by once again talking like a Hawk, but some of us are not sold on that being the only reason Soleimani reached out to him. Go back and read my post about the General’s hidden message. Look. To make a long story short, I think the guy is hedging his bets. He was never one to step into the limelight and he was even known for deliberately keeping off the world stage, but when Iran began to struggle inside of Syria and it became well known to the people of Iran just how much they were sacrificing for a war they cared nothing about, Soleimani began to smell real trouble. He understood he was a very well admired figure, at least far better than the leadership in Tehran. He is a war hero from the Iranian, Iraqi event and now he has been the voice of the Iranian actions in Syria. So, here is the problem with that latest accomplishment. The youth of Iran doesn’t care about  “accomplishments” in Syria. They want that money spent on them, not Assad or Hezbollah or Yemen. What does that mean? Well, it could mean even the luster Soleimani enjoys inside Iran is fading away. If you believe you are the only real hope for uniting the people of Iran and now, even your charisma and or support is waning, then you may need to try something very….very….bold. You may even try to insult the highly reactive Donald Trump.

Whose man is he?

            If you know how the Russians, Putin, works, then you know the Russians have always relied on having, “ an inside guy” when it comes to Iran; a guy, who can take the lead if the time comes. Who takes the trips to Moscow? Who do the Russian military leaders talk with? What one figure would the Old Man in Tehran fear, even when he swears he is loyal to him? Soleimani’s comment’s didn’t really catch me by surprise, but his stance most certainly did. ‘ if you want to threaten someone in Iran, threaten me’? What? The guy who spent most of his career in the shadows, is now suddenly John Wayne? When I read this, I had to wonder what the Iranian military Commanders thought of this statement? So the Quds Force Commander speaks for Iran and the Iranian military? Here is what I would like to know.  What did Moscow have to say, behind closed doors, when Soleimani made this statement? Better yet…………………did they know he was going to make it? Zealots or the future of the Persian people. Where does this man’s loyalties truly rest? Now, some interesting thoughts about a few things he said that will need further analysis, but that is something I dive into tomorrow.  

ERDOGON AND  ISRAEL. WHAT IS HE UP TO NOW?

Egodan, as I have called him for years, has been poking Turkey’s nose into Israel more and more as of late. Stories have been creeping along on the issue of Turkish involvement in issues that have little to do with them. Buying land, supporting movements, Just what is the Mad Sultan up to? Well, as you can tell, I don’t hold this man in high regard and I’ve not done so from day one.

            The details of why Turkey matters are numerous, but the simple truth is, Turkey, even though they hate to hear it, is a Pawn, just like several others in the region. No. There is no pending, new Ottoman Empire on the Horizon, but don’t try and tell Egodan this or he will have you tossed in jail. But, yes, Turkey is a Pawn. It’s a major pawn, but a pawn none the less. Now, this title doesn’t sit well with Egodan. His dream has not changed since 2003. He will be the Sultan of the new Ottoman Empire and that Empire will rule over the Middle East and even beyond. Yes, the EU has spit on his shoes time and time again. Yes, those that see him as a nutcase try not to overreact to his flamboyant rants. But, and this is a huge but, he has a problem that he must face. A problem that will move him towards his hallucination of a new Empire or will isolate him in a way he has not anticipated.

To Leave or not to Leave?

            As I have said in the past, the issue for Turkey is NATO. Putin wants NATO neutralized to the point that Eastern Europe can no longer count on it’s protection. Turkey is a huge slice of NATO and Egodan knows it. If you know history, you know the relationship between the Turks and the Russians is not exactly a love story. But, Egodan needs to be relevant and becoming a part of the EU is not going to get him what he needs. Hell, now days, he can’t even get the EU to answer the phone. “It’s who? Oh Lord….tell him I will call him back”. That’s the relationship between the EU and Egodan. Don’t believe me? Ask the Germans. Okay. So, Egodan needs to show Europe he doesn’t need them. How does he do that? Well, he could start holding hands with the Russians, but that process requires a great deal of swallowed pride and that’s an act Egodan doesn’t perform very well. The shotdown aircraft was a turning point, but the “turn” was not manipulated by Egodan. It was Putin’s play and it worked far better than Moscow anticipated. Turkey needed to show the West they were not their pawn anymore. How could a fledgling Empire be seen as a pawn? Yet, when it seemed Russia and Turkey were going to revert to the days of open hatred for each other, Putin changed the game. He reached out to the Sultan and the Sultan took the bait. To make a long story short, the Russians are now holding hands with the Turks and the Turks are looking to the West as to say, “look who I’m dating now”! Is there love in the air? No! It’s a game of manipulation and both sides think they can win. Now, with the arms sales issues only adding fuel to the flames of resentment in the West, the Turks have decided to become antagonist inside the issue of Israel and Palestine. Yes, I know, that’s not new news, but the twist comes from the Russian side of the story. If you’ve not noticed the Russian influence in and around Israel in the past two years, you have no future writing mystery novels. So, why would the Russians support Turkey sticking their nose into Israeli affairs? Well, one simple answer comes to mind. It would upset the US and the Team Trump and that’s a really good answer from the standpoint of Moscow. It’s could be just another wedge in  the widening split between the West and the Ottoman Sultan and that would have to have an impact on NATO. And how does this nose pushing go over with Israel? I have to wonder what some of the considerations were, off record, for the controversial law Israel passed last week.

            If there is one place in the world Turkey can get attention right now, it’s Israel. The idea of the Turks talking and “working with” the Iranians is just another indication to the West that Egodan is pressing hard to be a complete pain in the A--! Snooping around inside of Israel is not going unnoticed and Team Trump is certainly not one to mix words. That leads us to an interesting point. Has anyone heard a classic Donald Tweet about Turkey? Nope. Why not? They’ve been doing a great deal that could be responded to, but the sharp replies have been watered down to say the least. Well, there goes the theory that The Donald doesn’t listen to his staff. But, I will say this. It does beg the question. Just how long will The Donald let Egodan continue to take outlandish steps and say things like, Israel is acting in the Spirit of Hitler? Really the idiot compared the Jews to Hitler? The Sultan knows the relationship between Team Donald and Israel and so do the Russians. The Russians need Turkey to upset the West so bad that their membership in NATO is placed on the table. Is that the game here? Can Team Donald be manipulated to the point that they lash out at Turkey? If so, what does anyone think the response will be from the Sultan? As a reminder, when it comes to outlandish statements, he is a few steps ahead of The Donald. Folks, we continue to observe a game of Chess, and the board is sitting on a Russian table.

@ColDan11

WAR OF WORDS. ROUHANI AND TRUMP TRADE SHOTS.

 A few days ago, I was reading the latest “Moderate” words to come out of Rouhani’s mouth. I commented to the author of the story that Tehran truly doesn’t understand the personality in DC they are dealing with. The days of the modest, compromising, controlled speeches coming from the US White House are over, at least for now.  The talk of the day was Iran’s leadership once again threatening the Strait of Hormuz. That made for some interesting, tactical and strategic conversations with old friends. Then, the foolish statement was made about the “Lion’s Tail”.  That was the moment in time I truly began to worry the leadership in Tehran is at their wits end. For over two years now, I’ve been one of a few who have stood fast on the idea the Russians will never endanger their future over the desires of Iran. From the day the Russians pulled into Syria, invited of course, it was clear to Tehran, they had lost the ability to control the fate of Syria. At the risk of sounding like a broken….broken…record, I will say this again. Iran’s leadership has nothing going its way right now. Not only is nothing going the old men’s way in Tehran,  it seems they are doing everything in their power to speed up the disaster they are living in.

Pompeo and Regime Change.

If one looks at the words of the US Secretary of State, the argument can be easily made the US is looking to influence, once again, a “regime change” in the area. Now, as disastrous as this concept has been, it appears the outline of yet another event is in the works. “We are with you” are words that will mean a great deal more this time around than in 2009. If The Donald’s Team is saying, “we are with you”, then the odds are things are taking place. Again, do the Russians care? No. If you think they do, then you don’t know them like I do. Who is heading the country is not as important as who is working with the Russians. Oil and gas, that is what the Russians worry about. The manipulation and the control of the commodity the Russian economy and future is based upon. Have the US sit down and tell the Russians Iranian oil and gas will flow like a river, but only once the zealots that gave the US the Iran Crisis and the death of untold numbers of US military members in Iraq are gone, and the Tsar may load the gun used to shoot the old men in the head with. “Deals”. Deals are being made between the US and Russia and those deals don’t include the inputs from Tehran. No body knows this more than Tehran and the fear of what that means to them is pushing them towards contemplating war. Why else would they make statements about the Straits and Lion’s Tails to a guy like The Donald? Oh ya….and after the President of the US sends out a tweet in all caps, what does Tehran say? “ They wouldn’t dare”! Really? Do they truly understand who they are dealing with? The lives of every member of the Iranian military is in the hands of men making stupid….stupid statements and their families have to understand that reality. Yes this is some level of a “War of Words”. Yes this same brinkmanship was used with North Korea. But, somehow, the leadership in Tehran has convinced themselves the opposite reaction Kim gave is the course they wish to choose.  Can Iran attack shipping in the Straits? Yes. Can that dramatically impact the price of oil? Yes. Is that impact good news for nations that make money off the price of oil? Yes, at least for a short period of time. Do the Russians make money from Oil and gas? Yes. Does Russia really care if Iran’s military is decimated by the US and or Israel? No. Will they have harsh words and give great statements in the UNSC? Yes. Will it change anything? No. Do the Old Men in Tehran have anything to lose by pushing the issue with the US? Yes…..their lives and their form of government. Are they willing to risk it all for the sake of a Iranian dream they only seem to have? It appears they are heading that way. What will make this all come to reality? Now, that’s a good question.

Southern Syria:

 Rumors run wild the Russians and Israel are at an impasse on Southern Syria. Again, my bet is, the Russians really don’t care, even when they say they do. Everyone knows Iran will not pull out of Syria, they can’t. Everyone knows they are the backbone, IRGC at least, of what is left of the Syrian Army. The force in Southern Syria is more like a Mad Max movie than a true combat force and it will be no match for the IDF when the time comes. Iran will have to make a decision then. Do they start a fight with a military they cannot defeat? Will it spark a nationalistic fervor in Iran? No. It’s too late for that. So, what do they do? They have sat back and watched Israel pound, with the Russians looking on, any Iranian / Hezbollah target in Syria they pick. What do they do if Israel strikes the force in Southern Syria? The better question is, what can they do? 

            Getting into a war of words with the current US President is the act of an ill-rational leader and a so called “Moderate” leader at that. Rouhani is out to save his own political future and the radical conservatives in Tehran seemed worried enough that they have even been indorsing his words. That in itself shows you just how Tehran has fallen into a crisis mode. Iran is unstable. It is unstable economically. It is unstable politically. It’s a nation that has no true friends, the kind of friends who will come fight along side you. The people of Iran know this. The youth of Iran want what every person in this world wants. They want to be safe, happy and able to take care of themselves and family. None of that is going to happen with the path the nation is on now. Pompeo said it best. The people in Iran need to know the normal slice of the world is with them, but that won’t save them from the nightmare the old men in Tehran may be about to bring down on them. The key is military leadership. They key is people like Soleimani. Yes, everyone knows he is loyal to the Old Man. Yes, everyone knows he is loyal to the so called Revolution, but, is he willing to watch those he is loyal to destroy the future of Iran?  Soleimani. He is the key that I place my bets on. Have the Russian’s design a “PLAN B”?  How many times has Soleimani been to Moscow? We all know what the old men think of Moscow. In the words of a great movie. " Choose your next words wisely as they may be your last".   Rouhani.. You are no Spartan! 

Oh ya. I keep forgetting this new thing for me called Twitter. I talk about this region all day and night for that is what us old, retired folks do.

@ColDan11. Love to hear from all of you.