ERDOGON AND  ISRAEL. WHAT IS HE UP TO NOW?

Egodan, as I have called him for years, has been poking Turkey’s nose into Israel more and more as of late. Stories have been creeping along on the issue of Turkish involvement in issues that have little to do with them. Buying land, supporting movements, Just what is the Mad Sultan up to? Well, as you can tell, I don’t hold this man in high regard and I’ve not done so from day one.

            The details of why Turkey matters are numerous, but the simple truth is, Turkey, even though they hate to hear it, is a Pawn, just like several others in the region. No. There is no pending, new Ottoman Empire on the Horizon, but don’t try and tell Egodan this or he will have you tossed in jail. But, yes, Turkey is a Pawn. It’s a major pawn, but a pawn none the less. Now, this title doesn’t sit well with Egodan. His dream has not changed since 2003. He will be the Sultan of the new Ottoman Empire and that Empire will rule over the Middle East and even beyond. Yes, the EU has spit on his shoes time and time again. Yes, those that see him as a nutcase try not to overreact to his flamboyant rants. But, and this is a huge but, he has a problem that he must face. A problem that will move him towards his hallucination of a new Empire or will isolate him in a way he has not anticipated.

To Leave or not to Leave?

            As I have said in the past, the issue for Turkey is NATO. Putin wants NATO neutralized to the point that Eastern Europe can no longer count on it’s protection. Turkey is a huge slice of NATO and Egodan knows it. If you know history, you know the relationship between the Turks and the Russians is not exactly a love story. But, Egodan needs to be relevant and becoming a part of the EU is not going to get him what he needs. Hell, now days, he can’t even get the EU to answer the phone. “It’s who? Oh Lord….tell him I will call him back”. That’s the relationship between the EU and Egodan. Don’t believe me? Ask the Germans. Okay. So, Egodan needs to show Europe he doesn’t need them. How does he do that? Well, he could start holding hands with the Russians, but that process requires a great deal of swallowed pride and that’s an act Egodan doesn’t perform very well. The shotdown aircraft was a turning point, but the “turn” was not manipulated by Egodan. It was Putin’s play and it worked far better than Moscow anticipated. Turkey needed to show the West they were not their pawn anymore. How could a fledgling Empire be seen as a pawn? Yet, when it seemed Russia and Turkey were going to revert to the days of open hatred for each other, Putin changed the game. He reached out to the Sultan and the Sultan took the bait. To make a long story short, the Russians are now holding hands with the Turks and the Turks are looking to the West as to say, “look who I’m dating now”! Is there love in the air? No! It’s a game of manipulation and both sides think they can win. Now, with the arms sales issues only adding fuel to the flames of resentment in the West, the Turks have decided to become antagonist inside the issue of Israel and Palestine. Yes, I know, that’s not new news, but the twist comes from the Russian side of the story. If you’ve not noticed the Russian influence in and around Israel in the past two years, you have no future writing mystery novels. So, why would the Russians support Turkey sticking their nose into Israeli affairs? Well, one simple answer comes to mind. It would upset the US and the Team Trump and that’s a really good answer from the standpoint of Moscow. It’s could be just another wedge in  the widening split between the West and the Ottoman Sultan and that would have to have an impact on NATO. And how does this nose pushing go over with Israel? I have to wonder what some of the considerations were, off record, for the controversial law Israel passed last week.

            If there is one place in the world Turkey can get attention right now, it’s Israel. The idea of the Turks talking and “working with” the Iranians is just another indication to the West that Egodan is pressing hard to be a complete pain in the A--! Snooping around inside of Israel is not going unnoticed and Team Trump is certainly not one to mix words. That leads us to an interesting point. Has anyone heard a classic Donald Tweet about Turkey? Nope. Why not? They’ve been doing a great deal that could be responded to, but the sharp replies have been watered down to say the least. Well, there goes the theory that The Donald doesn’t listen to his staff. But, I will say this. It does beg the question. Just how long will The Donald let Egodan continue to take outlandish steps and say things like, Israel is acting in the Spirit of Hitler? Really the idiot compared the Jews to Hitler? The Sultan knows the relationship between Team Donald and Israel and so do the Russians. The Russians need Turkey to upset the West so bad that their membership in NATO is placed on the table. Is that the game here? Can Team Donald be manipulated to the point that they lash out at Turkey? If so, what does anyone think the response will be from the Sultan? As a reminder, when it comes to outlandish statements, he is a few steps ahead of The Donald. Folks, we continue to observe a game of Chess, and the board is sitting on a Russian table.

@ColDan11

WAR OF WORDS. ROUHANI AND TRUMP TRADE SHOTS.

 A few days ago, I was reading the latest “Moderate” words to come out of Rouhani’s mouth. I commented to the author of the story that Tehran truly doesn’t understand the personality in DC they are dealing with. The days of the modest, compromising, controlled speeches coming from the US White House are over, at least for now.  The talk of the day was Iran’s leadership once again threatening the Strait of Hormuz. That made for some interesting, tactical and strategic conversations with old friends. Then, the foolish statement was made about the “Lion’s Tail”.  That was the moment in time I truly began to worry the leadership in Tehran is at their wits end. For over two years now, I’ve been one of a few who have stood fast on the idea the Russians will never endanger their future over the desires of Iran. From the day the Russians pulled into Syria, invited of course, it was clear to Tehran, they had lost the ability to control the fate of Syria. At the risk of sounding like a broken….broken…record, I will say this again. Iran’s leadership has nothing going its way right now. Not only is nothing going the old men’s way in Tehran,  it seems they are doing everything in their power to speed up the disaster they are living in.

Pompeo and Regime Change.

If one looks at the words of the US Secretary of State, the argument can be easily made the US is looking to influence, once again, a “regime change” in the area. Now, as disastrous as this concept has been, it appears the outline of yet another event is in the works. “We are with you” are words that will mean a great deal more this time around than in 2009. If The Donald’s Team is saying, “we are with you”, then the odds are things are taking place. Again, do the Russians care? No. If you think they do, then you don’t know them like I do. Who is heading the country is not as important as who is working with the Russians. Oil and gas, that is what the Russians worry about. The manipulation and the control of the commodity the Russian economy and future is based upon. Have the US sit down and tell the Russians Iranian oil and gas will flow like a river, but only once the zealots that gave the US the Iran Crisis and the death of untold numbers of US military members in Iraq are gone, and the Tsar may load the gun used to shoot the old men in the head with. “Deals”. Deals are being made between the US and Russia and those deals don’t include the inputs from Tehran. No body knows this more than Tehran and the fear of what that means to them is pushing them towards contemplating war. Why else would they make statements about the Straits and Lion’s Tails to a guy like The Donald? Oh ya….and after the President of the US sends out a tweet in all caps, what does Tehran say? “ They wouldn’t dare”! Really? Do they truly understand who they are dealing with? The lives of every member of the Iranian military is in the hands of men making stupid….stupid statements and their families have to understand that reality. Yes this is some level of a “War of Words”. Yes this same brinkmanship was used with North Korea. But, somehow, the leadership in Tehran has convinced themselves the opposite reaction Kim gave is the course they wish to choose.  Can Iran attack shipping in the Straits? Yes. Can that dramatically impact the price of oil? Yes. Is that impact good news for nations that make money off the price of oil? Yes, at least for a short period of time. Do the Russians make money from Oil and gas? Yes. Does Russia really care if Iran’s military is decimated by the US and or Israel? No. Will they have harsh words and give great statements in the UNSC? Yes. Will it change anything? No. Do the Old Men in Tehran have anything to lose by pushing the issue with the US? Yes…..their lives and their form of government. Are they willing to risk it all for the sake of a Iranian dream they only seem to have? It appears they are heading that way. What will make this all come to reality? Now, that’s a good question.

Southern Syria:

 Rumors run wild the Russians and Israel are at an impasse on Southern Syria. Again, my bet is, the Russians really don’t care, even when they say they do. Everyone knows Iran will not pull out of Syria, they can’t. Everyone knows they are the backbone, IRGC at least, of what is left of the Syrian Army. The force in Southern Syria is more like a Mad Max movie than a true combat force and it will be no match for the IDF when the time comes. Iran will have to make a decision then. Do they start a fight with a military they cannot defeat? Will it spark a nationalistic fervor in Iran? No. It’s too late for that. So, what do they do? They have sat back and watched Israel pound, with the Russians looking on, any Iranian / Hezbollah target in Syria they pick. What do they do if Israel strikes the force in Southern Syria? The better question is, what can they do? 

            Getting into a war of words with the current US President is the act of an ill-rational leader and a so called “Moderate” leader at that. Rouhani is out to save his own political future and the radical conservatives in Tehran seemed worried enough that they have even been indorsing his words. That in itself shows you just how Tehran has fallen into a crisis mode. Iran is unstable. It is unstable economically. It is unstable politically. It’s a nation that has no true friends, the kind of friends who will come fight along side you. The people of Iran know this. The youth of Iran want what every person in this world wants. They want to be safe, happy and able to take care of themselves and family. None of that is going to happen with the path the nation is on now. Pompeo said it best. The people in Iran need to know the normal slice of the world is with them, but that won’t save them from the nightmare the old men in Tehran may be about to bring down on them. The key is military leadership. They key is people like Soleimani. Yes, everyone knows he is loyal to the Old Man. Yes, everyone knows he is loyal to the so called Revolution, but, is he willing to watch those he is loyal to destroy the future of Iran?  Soleimani. He is the key that I place my bets on. Have the Russian’s design a “PLAN B”?  How many times has Soleimani been to Moscow? We all know what the old men think of Moscow. In the words of a great movie. " Choose your next words wisely as they may be your last".   Rouhani.. You are no Spartan! 

Oh ya. I keep forgetting this new thing for me called Twitter. I talk about this region all day and night for that is what us old, retired folks do.

@ColDan11. Love to hear from all of you.

PUTIN AND TRUMP STRIKE YET ANOTHER “DEAL” OVER SYRIA.

            Well, the two big boys decided to put the Syrian topic back on the table at the big “meeting”, but in reality, it was a sidebar issue. Let’s face it, when it comes to the concerns of the US and Russia, the Middle East is a sidebar. Oh, and by the way, that’s a huge mistake! For all the talk of what took place at the big meeting, I want to take a few minutes and look at what may have gone on from the perspective of those who do care about the Middle East.

The Ottoman Sultan:

            What? The status of Syria, Iran, Israel, Saudi and a few other places where pilled into one conversation and the new Sultan was not invited? They could have skyped him into the discussion. They could have put him on the speaker phone. They could have at least sent him a text message. How dare they insult the new and powerful man from Turkey! I’ll tell you how. One, he doesn’t matter when people like The Donald and the Tsar get together for a sit-down. The Sultan is a pawn to two, much larger and far more powerful egomaniacs….yes….egomaniacs! Now, the Sultan is a just as big of one, but he has less at his disposal, so he’s ….well….he’s second string at best.

            So, the US agrees to pull out of Syria, no really this time, Northern Syria to be specific. Bad news for the Kurds, but then again, the West  / US / has been walking away from the Kurds for decades. What’s one more trip out the door? “Good luck boys and girls…… watch out for those Turks”! You only have to warn them about the Turks given they can defeat any other rag-tag outfit near their area. Sorry Sultan. You’ll have to find another way to show the world how powerful you have become. The real Big Boys didn’t have time for you this week.

Israel:

            So, the US and Russia agree the only way to keep Israel from destroying every ounce of Assad’s capabilities in Southern Syria is to convince them no Iranian or Hezbollah forces are in the area. But wait. Didn’t Israel state, “No Iranian forces anywhere in Syria”? Well, like any good negotiation, you have to start higher than your real objective and that’s how the game works. But wait. The Israelis were not in the big sit down? How did they get a vote? How did they become so central to the “deal”? Easy. Israel has the military might, at least in their neck of the woods, to do as they please. It’s Israel the US and the Russians realize they have to compromise over. In the end, that’s what the whole Syrian “deal” was about. What keeps Israel happy? What keeps Israel from knocking off Assad or even destabilizing Iran?  Look. It’s was Israel’s demands that had to be addressed. If both the US and Russia wanted to avoid a regional war, a war that would not alter the future of the world, but would greatly impact the short-term economies of both the US and Russia, then a “deal” had to be made and Israel had to agree to the deal!

            So, is that it? Did Israel agreed to the rumor of Russian forces controlling the area in the Southern part of Syria? Do they truly believe Russia can keep Iranian supported units, to include Hezbollah out of the region? No, not out of Syria, that was the starting point give and take. So what happens if small, disruption units, like the ones in Gaza, begin to pop up in Southern Syria? How will the Russians keep their word?  Easy. You just let the IDF bomb the targets they tell you they found. It’s been going on for a few years now anyway. All the Russians have to say is, “We were not aware of that alleged operation the IDF just struck. The IDF mission posed no threat to Russian forces, so we are not involved”. Really, they will just say nothing like they have been doing for a few years now. Okay, maybe a few words about the dangers of IDF actions ….bla….bla…bla….. but in the end, they just let Israel strike any target in the Southern districts of Syria they deem necessary. Come to think of it, they will most likely let them strike any target in Syria that has Iranian assets period.

            Wait. What about Hamas? What about Gaza? Now, here is where the other side of this “deal” on Syria comes in. Okay. The Russians got their way on the Syrian “deal”. The other topic Israel placed on the table was Hamas. Not the big deal the Iranians in Syria became, but the thorn that just won’t come out. Hamas. The same Hamas General Soleimani was all set to address just a few days ago. Then………Poof!!!!!! No pep talk! Canceled. No refunds! What happened? Who turned off the Hero of Iran from talking to Hamas? Wait…..where did all those IDF forces come from on the fence of Gaza? What is going on here? Yep. These must be the thoughts of the Hamas members. Did Soleimani give them an explanation why his pep-talk was canceled? Did he have another speaking engagement? You can bet, whatever answer Hamas leadership was given, and we probably know😊, it was not well received. If this wasn’t bad enough, now the rumor is out there the IDF is preparing to actually move into Gaza! Do I think that will actually happen? Probably not and I hope not. What does seem clear, at least to Hamas leadership, is the fact that Israel, at least for now, is not concentrating on a pending fight in Southern Syria. Gaza and Hamas has become the primary issue.  I think I even read yesterday where Hamas leadership had told Egypt, the middleman, they would do everything they could to stop the firebomb mission by Friday. Amazing what seeing nearly Divisional strength units sitting at the chain-link fence can do to a person’s perspective.

            Hamas and Gaza are in real…..real….trouble. The world will not react well to the IDF crushing through Gaza, but then again, Israel has never been in this fight for the sake of world opinion. Compromise on Southern Syria may have been reached, for now, but Gaza and the weekly, almost daily, events coming from there is going to have to change. Abbas may get one last chance to run the place. As for Hamas. If they have not learned what it means to take something too far, they are going to force the people trapped in Gaza a very difficult lesson. If that happens, good luck on getting them to support the movement in the future.

Iran: 

            Now. Here comes the important part of this discussion. Iran! Going into the “Big Meeting”, the old men in Tehran were worried sick. Do they trust Moscow? No. Do they support Moscow’s dreams? No. Do the think Moscow cares about Iran’s dreams? No. Do they feel like they are nothing more than a puppet for the Russians? Yes. So, they think they are being used? Yes. Does that aggravate them? Yes. When Moscow tells them what really went on in the meeting, will they believe them? No. So what will they do? Now, that’s the Billion Dollar + question! Moscow will say, “you don’t have to leave Syria, but you can’t have obvious military operations in the country. You can’t have anyone, to include your proxy fighters, anywhere near the Israeli border. If you have operations in Syria that are overt and they are struck by the IDF, then we will say a few words, but that is it”. The alternative to this narrative is something like this. “We can do whatever we want to do in Syria. I would suggest we tell Assad to concentrate on the North and the Kurds. Let’s find a way to show the world Turkey is working with the two of us. That makes the fact they are members of NATO even more contentious. Leave Southern Syria to us”. Now, what the Russians won’t say in this option two is this. “ We don’t give a damn if the IDF pounds anything they think is even remotely related to your operations in Syria. We will do the same thing we’ve been doing for the past few years. Nothing. If you get slapped around in Syria, that’s your business. You can’t operate out of the same facility with us. You can’t  be near our forces. We don’t wont your body parts flying all over our equipment”!

            Where do the Iranians stand after the :”Big Meeting”? Answer? On the sidelines just like the Turks. This meeting was between the two of the three  most powerful men in the world, with Xi being the one watching and waiting. The dreams of a new Persian Empire and not dreams. They’re hallucinations. The dreams of a new Ottoman Empire fall into the same category. Iran will not be allowed to develop a nuclear weapons program. If needed, it’s sites will suffer the same fate it’s operations do in Syria. They will be destroyed and the Russian will watch. Here’s the part that really…..really……turns the old men in Tehran red. They know it!

In The End:

            The “Big Meeting” was not about the Middle East. It was not about Syria or Iran or Israel. It was about a nation that is close to governmental crisis. A crisis that will alter the future of the world if not carefully approached. One segment of the US is ready to attack Russia tomorrow. What’s interesting is the fact that segment is the one the KGB spent BILLIONS trying to build in the US. The Ultra Left. The ones that love the idea of the destruction of Capitalist Markets. The ones that hate wealth and demand the government provide everything for them. The Old Soviet Union worked hard to destroy the US from within by using the Universities as the incubators of Communist way of life. Then…..something crazy happened. The Soviet, Communist, Union burn down, collapsed! Out of the ashes of what was the Soviet Union started what the US and West thought was a fledgling, Capitalistic, Democracy and just when it looked like the new Russia might actually get in step with it’s genetic brothers and sisters, the West creates yet another disaster. Who jumps in to show the struggling Russian Banking System how to function in a truly Capitalistic Market? Who shows up to teach the Russians how to honestly invest their nation’s capital? Angry old men who were born in Eastern Europe. An Eastern Europe the lived under the boot of the Soviet Empire. Revenge became the game. One angry old man from Hungry, and a few of his cohorts, took revenge. They couldn’t be fooled. They knew inside that Sheepskin was the old Soviet Wolf and they were going to make sure that Wolf didn’t rise again. So, in the course of just a few short years, the Russian experiment in being “Western” failed. From the ashes rose a new Russia. A Russia that said, “ I told you so”. A Russia that, in their minds, reached out to the West only to have it’s money handlers push Russia back into the pit. That was the window any Nationalist needed and that was the window Putin took. The new Russia was born. The Nationalistic Russia. Communism was banned. That foolish, leftist, liberal dream had cost Russia everything and it was time to rebuild with the Nationalist.

            So, what do we have today? We have a US that is 50 percent or better convinced that the government should provide everything…. Education…medical…a job….a nice house…..phone……everything!  Where did this seed get planted? Well, don’t forget the old KGB days. Don’t forget where many of those ideological, 60s kids are now. Yep.  Running our nations Universities. Don’t forget what party took the leftist leaning ideology and ran with it. “ I will give you way more than that other guy….just vote for me”!

            The Left wants Trumps head on a pike! It doesn’t matter what he did or didn’t do. They hate what he stands for. The Deep State called DC is willing to go along because Trump is not part of the “ Political Team”. He wasn’t properly vetted growing up inside the political process. He’s not who they wanted. So, the enemy of my enemy becomes my friend. The Left, the Dems and the DC gang all agree to get rid of trump. Now, the KGB concept of disruption called for more than just Campus influence. It required the eventual control of the media. Control the message to the masses and you control the masses. Every stop to wonder why there was so much hatred towards the early days of “Talk Radio”? How can you control the message if you can’t control who’s putting it out there?

            Okay. It gets this simple. The Soviets created the environment in the US that now hates what Russia has become. Passive, Liberal, Leftist fear one thing more than any other. The doctrine of Nationalism! What do they see Trump acting like with his, “Make America Great Again” theme? What do they know Putin is? A poster boy for nationalism! So you see, the old Soviet Union planted the seed of the resistance he now faces in the US. The left loved Communism and everything they were told the world could be in the College classroom. They fought hard to reshape the US and just when it looked like they were going to have it all there way, the Mothership changed sides. Now, the Mothership is the Flagship of the Nationalistic movement. Poor Putin. He must have forgotten what his old Bosses in the KGB had worked so hard for. The movement that his team built now hates him and hates him to a point of being reckless.

It’s a crazy world folks and I have even worse news for the Passive Left. If you think Putin is a Nationalist, just wait until you get a full taste of Mr. Xi!  It was “The Big Meeting”. It better have been a meeting that starts the discussion over the Dragon preparing to fly over the entire world!  

DONALD TRUMP AND TREASON?

Once again, I fully intended on addressing the pending changes in Mexico, but after the compete meltdown of the US Media, 95% of it, over the Putin / Trump meeting I once again find myself going back to a very basic question. Did the Russians “interfere” with the US elections in 2016? I did this one a few months ago, but it seems a refresher is in order.

Nations, “Interfering” with other Nations:  

            Do nations “interfere” with other nation’s governmental processes? Yes, and it’s been going on for a few thousand years. Have nations attempted to find people inside their enemies, and make no doubt about it, after eight years of Obama and Hillary and George Soros, that is exactly what the US is to Russia, that might support disrupting the enemy state? Yes. It’s the backbone for the art of espionage. So, there ya go. Phase one of solving this puzzle is out of the way. Examples will be given later and ugly ones at that.

Intent:  

            What is the difference between “intentionally, Knowingly and Recklessly? If you don’t know, then you have never been involved in a criminal investigation in the US and I would strongly suggest you look up what this means in the US criminal code. So, let’s move on.

            Did Donald Trump or Hillary Clinton, or anyone that worked for them, “intentionally” work with any Russian individual or individual tied to Russia for the purpose of damaging their Presidential Rival? Ah…… now here is where it gets tricky, for you see this is where the Special Prosecutor gets involved, at least the Special Prosecutor assigned to the Trump case. Why one has not been assigned for the Clinton / Clinton Foundation funds to Hillary’s campaign, is a question President Putin brought up yesterday. Interesting. His Perceptions, but let me move on. The Special Prosecutor / SP/ knows the only way the case against President Trump stands up in the US Courtroom, at least the way they work for now, is to show “Intent” and if not “intent”, then Knowingly. If the best the SP can come up with is “Recklessly”, then it’s back to the level of Bill Clinton and the Sexual exploits in the White House. So, there you have it. Those that hate Trump, on both sides of the US political system, may have their torches out to burn down Castle Frankenstein and the “Monster”, but the legal authority has to show cause before the torches are tossed in the windows. Yes…. The media screams… “Burn the Monster”…….but, the SP has to show cause to burn the Monster and that is taking way too long for the angry mob! Now, let’s look at this national crisis, and make no doubt, it is a national crisis, from the perspective of the Russians. Yes, the Russians. If you don’t understand why that is important, then just go back to your mob and hold your torch.  

Russia:

            Who was the US Secretary of State that made the statement in Europe, “We must  not allow Putin to win the Russian Election in 2018”, or something very…very….close to that? Yes, it was Secretary Clinton. Now, how do you think a man like Putin, if you know him, reacted to that statement? Who was showing, “INTENT”?

 Who is one of the largest campaign backers of the Clintons? A guy named George Soros. What is the history behind this George Soros and Russia? If you don’t know, do a little research and if you are part of the Mob holding torches, then you might want to do a little detective work.

 Who openly interfered with the elections and the protest in the Ukraine, that lead to a nearly disastrous Civil War? Did you guess the US and the Obama Administration? Good for you, for you are correct. Once again, if you are upset at this point and you have not played Detective on my statement, then go back to the torch group.

Who was the Secretary of State under the Clinton Administration that openly resisted the Russian support in Serbia? Madalyn Albright. What are her feelings for the Russians? Hint, she was born in the Czech Republic in 1937! Who did the Russians blame for the Serbian event? Detective, try to play Detective.

Who told the Russians, “don’t worry…..NATO will not advance it’s membership into the old Soviet Buffer Zone now called Eastern Europe? I think you know the answer. By the way, the excuse for what took place in Eastern Europe with the EU and NATO was, ‘but they invited us….we didn’t force them to join’.  How do you think that went over in Moscow?

So, when it’s all said and done, what took place here? Did the Russians attempt to influence the US elections, to include the House and Senate? Absolutely and why not? Why would they not attempt such events? Oh, by the way. Look up the story of the Chilean President who won when the US didn’t want him to win. Look up what happen to him, torch carriers.

What really is taking place:

            Does everyone who has worked in a leadership position in DC know everything I’ve just stated? Yes. Do they all know that major nations attempt everything they can to influence the actions of other nations, nations they consider rivals? Yes. Have the actions of the US been overlooked or deemed necessary by those that run DC? Yes. Yes, until those actions become tools to regain power. Was Donald Trump supposed to win the US Election? No….Hell no! Was the machine known as DC primed and ready for the person they wanted in the White House? Yes. Did those that support her do everything in their power to insure her victor? Just ask the DNC and Bernie Sanders. By the way, I wonder what happened to the DNC Boss who said she was scared of the Hillary Team? I hope Donna Brazile has her own version of Witness Protection.

            So, the Russians executed a plan. They knew the information was out there about the Clinton Foundation and the money turning over with “others”. They knew Team Trump was amateur hour when it came to the art of Presidential Elections. But, who were they more worried about? Hillary or Trump? Who did Putin personally dislike? Yep. Hillary! The Russians believed she was “dirty” when it came to her and Bill’s so-called foundation. By the way, talk to some of the folks in Haiti about their feelings towards the Clintons. More Detective work. Okay, back on track.

            If you want to get right down to it, both Hillary and Trump’s programs were set up for failure. The goal was never to get Trump in office. The goal was to make sure Hillary didn’t get in and then see what may come of the Trump Administration. One they knew. They other they could only guess. Yes, the ultimate goal was to disrupt the US. The ultimate goal was to weaken the nation. Here is why I call this a national Crisis. The results of what the Russians have put into play with brand-new, state of the art weapons like social media and the internet, is a US that is splitting apart at an ever increasing rate. The US political system has become a cesspool for corrupt, incompetent and power hungry egomaniacs. DC truly has a “Deep State” and it’s core are the autocratic lifers in not only the federal agencies, the ones that dream of nothing more than their next promotion….parking spot, larger office, but the ones in the House and Senate as well. It’s the ones who are hired during an eight year run of one administration that are loyal to the person that will get them their follow on assignment. They are the ones that finally realized, the most important organization in the nation to politicize is the US Department of Justice. How could anyone believe the Clinton Foundation and it’s actions for Hillary’s campaign would be looked at by a Department of Justice run from the White House. The goal was Hillary as the replacement and that is how DC thinks the system works. That thing called the Electoral Collage; well, in their eyes, that needs to go away.

            The Russians have successfully disrupted the US to a level they didn’t think was possible. As a matter of fact, I think they are now growing worried themselves. Perhaps they were too successful? Perhaps the US is on the brink of a real, governmental crisis? If so, what happens to the world economy? Did anyone in Moscow truly think this all the way through? They have the mob at the doorsteps of Castle Frankenstein, but what happens if the torches actually go through the windows?

Side note:  

Who is the Billionare that dreams of “Open Borders”? George Soros, that’s who. What is the battle cry of those that hate Trump the most, you know the way…way left? Get rid of the US ICE organization. Does that mean Soros is actually supporting the Russian plan? Nope. It means the far Left smells blood in the water and the chance to really…….change the US may be closer than you think!

TRUMP AND PUTIN. THE LONG-AWAITED MEETING

Do you ever wonder how the rest of the world interprets the US media and it’s coverage of The Donald? One network supports him, but 95 percent foam at the mouth when they hear his name. How does that impact how the world sees the US and do any of those who are phobic about Trump care? Yesterday, all I heard about was how the world was collectively holding its breath for this meeting. CNN and MSNBC had the outcome of the meeting already ready to broadcast. “Trump looks like an Idiot with Putin…… Trump betrays the EU……. Trump let’s Putin have his way on anything and everything”. If this sound’s crazy, then you must not have listen to these two networks. To our enemies, who control everything the media in their nations has to say, these events show them just how divided and weak the US actually has become. So, today, with the most important meeting between two nations that could end life on Earth, the US media seems to be praying for a complete Trump failure. Amazing…..simply amazing.  At least CNN and MSNBC are not alone. Another group is praying for the same result. Iran.

Tehran:

          Just yesterday, I read another plea by the Old Man in Tehran for the people of Iran to “unite” behind their government. Are the Fanatics who run Iran worried about the social pressure in their country? You bet. Are they worried about the outcome of the Trump / Putin meeting? You bet. If The Donald walks away and then calls Netanyahu to inform him there is no “deal” on Iran in Syria, then the level of violence in the Middle East may reach a level not seen in decades. If Putin calls Tehran and tells them, “everything is good”, does Tehran believe him? Is there a reason for them to believe him? What are the odds of The Donald and Putin truly finding a peaceful end to Syria? There can be only one answer to that question. Does Iran abandon it’s dreams of a Iranian dominated Syria, Iraq, Lebanon, Yemen? Does Iran walk away from it’s vision of it’s future for the sake of Moscow? Is Putin simply wanting the US out of Syria and nothing else? Does he really care the US is in Syria? Is that what really keeps him up at night? No. for all of those that speak to the issue of the Middle East, the reality is this. The issues before The Donald and Putin are not based on that region of the world. What matters to the two of them is the future of their two nations’ relationships.  What matters to Putin is Eastern Europe and NATO. What matters to The Donald is the EU and unbalanced trade. What matters to Putin and The Donald better be the real danger. The Dragon.

The Dragon Watches:

          What is the greatest fear of China? The mending of fences between the US and Russia. By the way, that fear is going to involve India sooner than most think and that is an even more interesting topic. How about we all wake up one day to a Alliance between India and China? Okay, back on point. To see Putin and The Donald smiling, something Putin didn’t seem to do much of during the photo ops, is not a good sign in Dragon Land. To hear The Donald continue to talk about mending fences with Russia is not the music China wants to hear. Just seeing the two of them standing next to each other will not be the event that makes the Dragon panic. A press conference is nothing more than a photo op. What the Chinese will look for will be based upon what their intelligence community can come up with on the actual meeting. All they really want to know is if Russia and the US are mending fences. They also no, US politics are so volatile now that whatever The Donald comes up with now may not mean anything in three years ,and to the Chinese, three years is a blink of the eye. Long-term, systemic bonding between the US and Russia is what will worry the Chinese and their ability to influence, prevent, that from happening is strong. They understand US politics is consumed with tearing each other apart and as such, they are incapable of sustained, proactive international affairs.  So, yes, the Dragon was interested in this meeting, but not to the level of Iran and Israel.

Israel] :

          Will the US trade with Russia? Will Putin agree to reduce his support for Iran? Will The Donald make it clear that Iran ether leave Syria or the US will stand by as the IDF destroys everything Iranian in Syria? Israel wants to know, should they launch their war or not? Aleppo was struck within the past 24hrs and the targets were once again Iranian. Not only that, but once again, the missiles were able to reach all the way to Aleppo? So how does Tehran perceive that continuing message?

          The topic of Iran will not be the center point of these two Super Powers meeting. The issue of Iran’s vision is nothing more than a Pawn in a much larger, much more important Chess game. It’s that reality, inside of Tehran, that may set the gears of war in motion. How does Iran show the world, “we are not not dancing to the tune of Moscow or DC”? If the Iranian stances was not supported by Putin today, then what options does Iran really have? Sadly, here is an even more important question. Does the US press even understand this or even care? Is the only goal they seek is the destruction of President Trump? Does Tehran understand the US is so politically destabilized that any action by them will only be covered from the viewpoint of Trump messing up whatever Tehran does? Look. It’s this simple. Tehran ether believes what Moscow tells them about the meeting or they don’t. If they don’t, and it appears they don’t, then what happens next? You can bet this. As screwed up as the US leadership / media / politics is right now, no matter what happens, it will be finger pointing in DC. The US is a mess and it’s Enemies know it.

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PUTIN AND TRUMP. THE BIG SIT-DOWN.

          First off, how convenient the US DoJ announces the indictment of twelve Russian “agents” in the on going Mueller investigation just has The Donald is about to sit down with Putin. That’s not what I want to talk about today, but in the end, the down fall of the US may very well be its own decaying, political  process. Now, back to the topic at hand.

          Some of you may be tired of hearing me say this, but here it goes again. The core reason the Russians are supporting Iran is to counter the movements that have taken place in Europe/ Eastern Europe since the fall of the Soviet Union. NATO. NATO is the reason Putin feels driven to create pressure in other areas of vital interest to the West. Does Russian need a warm water port in the region in order to defend itself? No. That’s ‘old think’. That’s Cold War era warfighting logic. Look, the down and dirty issue is in plain view. The Russians are applying pressure in other locations just like every other Super Power has done. So, the concept of them trying to influence the US election process is a given, or at least, it should be. But, I digress. Two of the most powerful men in the world are going to sit down on the 16^th of July and the future of the Middle East is going to be a major topic, not the only one and not the most important one, but a topic that is important none the less. Now, once again, let me make a statement I’ve made over and over again. The fate of Iran’s actions in Syria and the region are not being decided by Tehran. Their fate is something they demand to hold themselves, as any nation would. What is said between Putin and Trump will be relayed to Tehran and it will be up to Tehran to form a perception of what Moscow tells them. Do they believe them or not? If the message from the Russians is one Iranian leadership cannot accept, then what? Does Moscow tell Tehran, “Don’t worry. Just because we told the US you would do something, doesn’t mean you really have to comply”! The Art of “contract / proxy / fighters is a hot topic in Russia and Tehran has it’s own version with it’s Shia groups, but in the end, Tehran will have to trust Moscow or not. How Tehran responds to the Trump, Putin meeting is the real concern, but not the only one.

Israel gets a vote:

          Okay. Here we go again. I’m not a true broken record, but I’ve said this time and time again. What Moscow and the US decide will not change the commitment of Israel to defend itself. A nation that cannot fight a war for weeks or months in reverse, a nation that cannot move its population out of the battlefield, is a nation that will not decide it’s fate based on the words of two men who are foreigners. Israel’s size determines Its posture. Israel’s size determines Israel’s preemptive attitude. The odds are, the US side of the discussion with Russia will not be based upon keeping Israel out of the loop and that is a huge difference between the US and Russian position on this meeting. Moscow has no reason to risk war with the US over Iran and the US knows any war between Iran and Israel would end with Iran being unable to support any further “intrusions” throughout the region. The bonus for the Russian would be the spike in fuel prices and the spike would be huge, if only short-lived.  

The Real Story.

          Contrary to what the US media consistently states, Trump has a staff that understands the true issues of the Russians. The fact that one of the political parties in the US has been executing a scorched earth campaign to unseat Trump becomes a real danger at this point. Does Trump feel pressed to show a “hardline” with Putin? Does he talk a great battle for the press to pick up on, but talk “business” after the cameras are off? What world leader hasn’t taken this approach? If the US stance becomes, “we support Israel, and this includes if they decide to go to war with Iran, but we are also changing our minds about our commitment to NATO”, then how does Moscow react? What is more important, Iran’s fanatical, Religious Leaders, or Eastern Europe, the old Soviet “Buffer Zone”? Is Trump clever enough to figure out how to trade support for NATO, or the perception of trading, for a Middle East that is no longer dominated by the threat of Iran’s Fanatics? The American Embassy ordeal created long memories in the US and Iran is still ruled by the fanatics that made that event happen.

          So, here is the short version of what is about to take place. Trump is going to sit down with Putin. The topics have been reviewed and statements are ready, but Trump almost never goes by the script. The discussion will go in whatever direction Trump takes it and Putin will follow with little or no response other than his paten pending grin. The US wants Iran’s influence in the region removed. Tehran will resist at all cost. Putin wants to see NATO’s stance in Eastern Europe reduced. The question becomes, can the two leaders come to some level of a “deal”, and if there is a “deal”, what will Tehran’s response be? Yes the left is foaming at the mouth in the US. Yes, they want to unseat Trump and reestablish the old way of thinking in DC, but two very visionary, powerful are going to meet in a few days and nobody knows what the outcome will be.

ROUHANI AND SOLEIMANI AND “KISS THE HAND”!

This week had an event some of us should have found strange. Soleimani, the Pit Bull of the Old Men in Tehran, had flowering words for Rouhani, the guy Soleimani’s Boss wants gone! Why, he even said he “ kisses the hand” of Rouhani. Wait.....what???? Just Hours before this story broke, all the talk by the “experts” was the issue of. The Old Men wanting Rouhani glammed for the social unrest in Iran. Once again, they wanted him gone! Then, the kiss the hand statement? What’s going on here? Yes, Tehran is looking for someone or something to once again blame the social unrest on. Yes, it looked as if Rouhani and his so called, “moderate viewpoint” was going to be the target. But, then Soleimani, reaches out to him? Did his Boss know this, kiss the hand, statement was coming? How do you go from blaming Rouhani for all that is wrong in the country to having your most respected Warrior kissing his hand? Boy oh boy, can my imagination run wild on this one. Yes, Iran is in trouble, socially. A youthful population is still just as unhappy as it was a few years ago and all the efforts to build Persian Nationalism by the IRGC has failed. By the way, that attempt by the IRGC is a “clue” to what I think may be happening, but I’ll get to that in a few. So, Iran is in social trouble based upon it’s squandering of the wealth Obama sent them and that economic picture just got much worse with The Donald going into a full court press to cut off Iranian oil. Moscow is negotiating with The Donald on the future of NATO and Eastern Europe and his key hold card continues to be the Middle East. A Middle East Tehran gets no vote on when Moscow and DC talk. Bottom line, things can get much worse for Iran and the Old Men in Tehran are growing more and more desperate. Now, stack on top of all of this, the reality that Israel is not going to allow Iranian and or Hezbollah forces near the border with Southern Syria and once again, Moscow and not Tehran is deciding the outcome of that event. To top it all off, what does Iran do? It once again threatens the Straights. Not only that, but Rouhani makes the same threat? So, two options here. 

1. Rouhani is trying to save his job.     

Soleimani has never been a big fan of Rouhani and to hear him say he kisses his hand had to have come as a shock. The threat came while Rouhani was negotiating with the EU over the failed nuclear “deal”. Trying to squeeze more out of the EU made restating the threat to the Straits a timely issue. The fact that Rouhani, the Moderate, :) made the statement caught some of the folks in the West, off guard. Was it an attempt to show his Boss he was onboard with the  Hardliners? Was he just swimming down stream for the sake of not being drowned? Maybe, but I would still be the person that responded to his statement was the issue that surprised him the most. Now. Point number 2.

2. Did Soleimani send a message?

Remember my comment about the IRCG pushing the concept of Persian Nationalism? If you are not up to speed on the topic, I would ask you go do a little research. I posted about this topic a few months ago and I’ve been wondering just where the IRGC would go next if the attempt failed. So, here’s my  theory. I’ve said this on several occasions, Soleimani is a Iranian Nationalist. Yes, his loyalty, on the surface, is with the Old Men, but in the end, his goal is Iran, not just a radical form of religion. If anyone can see the handwriting on the wall, if anyone can see a pending doom in the near future, it’s Soleimani. No one knows the ray them of the streets of Iran better than his people. No one understands the insanity of Iran fighting a war with Israel and the US. No one understands more than him that Moscow is simply playing Iran as a Pawn in a much larger game. If the General see a real threat to Iran’s future and he knows the Old Men are so set in their ways that they will let that threat become reality, what does he do? Does he do whatever it takes to save the future of Iran? Does he allow the threat of starting a nuclear weapons program seal the fate of Iran’s military? Does he allow threats over the Straits to push Iran’s economy and social stability over the cliff? Or.....or....does he send a message, a classic, between the lines, message to the “Moderate”? Does Soleimani let Rouhani know he is with him if the time comes for real change? Would the IRGC follow him if he suddenly backed Rouhani? Yes. Would key Iranian military commanders follow him? Yes? Is he the real leadership figure in Iran? Well, he must may be the Douglas MacArthur of Iran and this just may be the Korean War for Iran. That would make Khamenei the Harry Truman of the story and we all know what President Truman had to do when General Mac Arthur got out of control. The problem is, this time around the Mac Arthur figure may win!   Anyway you slice it, the kiss your hand statement was strange.