SOUTHERN  SYRIA. STICK TO THE SIMPLE VERSION OF THE STORY.

            The attached article by Mona Alami is a well written snapshot of what is about to take place in Southern Syria. It’s complicated to follow and written at a level many will find filled with too much detail. That is why my comments I posted on the site were much more simplistic.

https://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2018/06/syria-south-conflict-russia-talks-regime-rebels.html

ColDan • 7 minutes ago

A well written article. If you make this event as simplistic as possible, it becomes easier to understand what is taking place and what is at stake. Israel will not allow Hezbollah and Iranian supported units in that area. That is not up for negotiation and the Russians and Americans understand this. Russia's ability to control the actions of Iran are growing more limited by the day. The so called "Alliance" was nothing more than an attempt by both parties to manipulate the other to their advantage. Iran cannot allow Russia to control the fate of Syria. If Iran doesn't agree to the terms the Russians have set with Israel and the US, then Moscow will allow the Iranian and Hezbollah forces to be decimated. This has already happened numerous times as Moscow has attempted to show Tehran the cost of not going along with the plan. Thus, the 2nd meeting between the Russians and the IDF, last week, was a "Deconfliction “process prior to IDF operations. Why has Syria's assault not taken place yet, as Assad stated over a week ago? Because Moscow has given Assad a choice. Follow Tehran or follow Moscow. Finally. the IDF will not wait. No amount of verbal threats or blustering talk from Hezbollah will prevent the IDF from acting as soon as they deem it is time. Moscow has cleared the way for that event.

            As is often the case, the more complex the description of a pending event becomes, the harder it is for people to understand what is truly at stake. So, again, let me be perfectly clear. Nobody is gong to convince Israel they should accept some level of Iranian influence in Southern Lebanon.  Moscow has stated Israel has agreed to the Iranians pulling some 45 miles away, but I’ve not heard that from Israel. What I have heard Israel say was the simplistic warning that no permanent, military or militia location will be tolerated in Syria. How convinced was Moscow this statement is true? Why do you think the second meeting with the IDF took place?

Why is this different?

            Northern Syria is all about the Kurds, the detreating relationship between the West / US / and Turkey, oil and gas, Russia desire to control that market, Moocow’s relationship with DC, Moscow’s attempt to degrade NATO by pulling Turkey away from the West, a mad man who thinks he’s the next Ottoman Sultan and last but not least, Iran’s dreams of expansion. Yep, Northern Syria, if you cut the country just North and South, is far different that Southern Syria. Southern Syria is about one thing. Israel. Iran will not be allowed to threaten Israel from Southern Syria…….period! Israel’s statement about “all of Syria” could be a bargaining point factored into it’s talks with Moscow, but the issue of support operations, besides what Hezbollah has in Lebanon, is a non-starter. Yes, Israel will destroy Syrian forces if needed. That is why Moscow has given Assad a choice and that choice has Tehran furious. Moscow’s words are simplistic, but in another language. “Plata or Plomo” …..Plata being Moscow…Plomo being the IDF. Poor Eye Doctor. It’s been a hard eight years.

NORTH KOREA….. “PEACE IN OUR TIME”….BUT FOR WHOM?

          I’m going to take one more shot at the whole North Korea issue today and then I’m heading back to what matters in the short term. Iran and Israel.

          So, the “deal” is done? Even The Donald said it may or may not work, but he thinks it will. Check! That is what just took place. He placed a check next to that campaign promise. All the talk is over, “will it work or not? Can we trust the North Koreans”? As usual, US politics seem to be more important than finding a true answer to the issue. The internal politics of the US bores me, so I want to press this issue with a true warning. This was a Chess move and the person making the “move” was not from North Korea.

Goals:

          Back to something I have said time and time again. What is the goal of the Chinese? Answer; the reduction of Western / US / military leverage in the region / South China Sea and ultimately, the Pacific. The dream of the new Chinese Empire has been in the making for over fifty years. Xi’s now openly talks of the new day. The day when China controls the world in economic trade. The day when the world follows China’s lead. In the mind of Xi, that day is hear. Who is North Korea in the world of China? At first, they were a gateway for invasion. A gateway they could not allow anyone to hold. Next, they became the Buffer Zone! Then they were formed into what they have remained for over fifty years; a rabid dog on a short leash. A wild animal held in the face of the West to buy time; time for China to build it’s might so that one day, they could stand in front of the West and no longer need the wild dog! Folks; if this deal is truly “done”, then we better be worried far more than most think. If the Dragon no longer needs the little wild dog, then it must believe it’s time has come. The Dragon is ready. Xi is ready.  Power projection is now possible. China can defend or attack. It can do so in ways the rest of the world is not prepared for. Xi says, “ It is our time now”! Does that explain letting the rabid dog be put to sleep?   Did this deal go through? Is it for real? Those that say they hope so need to be very…..very….careful in what they “hope” for!

@ColDan11

NORTH KOREA. THE ONE ON ONE AND IRAN’S SECRETS.

          Let’s take a US, political process check real quick. If Obama had pushed this deal, the right would be screaming. The Donald pushes this deal and the left is screaming! So, that part of this story is worthless. Let’s move on.

          Oh to be a fly on the wall of that one on one. The Donald unvetted, un-coached by the political pundits that drown most Presidents; how did that go? What was said on both sides? Did the Little Fat Guy guard his words? The odds are he didn’t speak to any issue the Donald may have brought up that Xi told him not to speak of. You can bet that room was swept cleaner than anyone can imagine. How about the Little Fat Guy’s body? I wonder if that was “checked”? Something tell me the “ one on one” was listened to ether during the conversation or soon afterword’s. Why did The Donald want this “ one on one”? What was it he wanted to say? “ Look…….you don’t have to be Xi’s puppet. You can be your own man. Step out Youngman. Be a real leader”! If Trump would have said something along those lines, knowing the conversation would get back to Xi, you can bet it would have shown on Kim’s face. It’s highly likely, The Donald told his trusted staff what took place in the one on one. Someone may have even given him some pointers…….. be thinking National Security Adviser or Mr. Netanyahu. Yep. My point to all of this. Did Iran come up in the discussion? Was the one on one have anything to do with Tehran?

Friendships:

          In the world of business, The Donald’s world, friendships take a second seat to “business”. Everyone knows the relationship between Iran and North Korea was based on nuclear weapons development. Just what does the North Korean leader know about Iran’s program? What was The Donald able to pull out of him? How big was the enticement? Did Xi instruct the Little Fat Guy not to speak of Iran? Did he listen? How bad would the US want that information? What would it be willing to give? A comment was made, after the meeting, by The Donald that US forces may someday leave the South Korea! Wait…….What????? I can bet you Japan and the rest of the gang choked on hear that being said. Did anyone take that statement serious? Haven’t I always said that was the ultimate deal the Chinese were looking for? Okay, Trump did say, “not part of this deal”. Ya…. right. Everything is in play, it’s just a matter of placing a timeline on any of it. It seems clear the US place a few huge incentives on the table, but what they are asking for is, in their opinion, worth the gamble. Pay close attention to who was sitting next to The Donald in the official meeting.

          Isolating Iran by working with the G3, US / Russia / China….yep… the G6/7/8/ is old news to the Donald, is underway. China listens up when the US starts hinting at a reduction of forces in the region. Russian listens up when talk of NATO’s future is on the table. Iran has nothing to offer to this process. They don’t even rank with the G45, much less the new G3. Was Iran’s future determined yesterday? Just how worried are the old men in Tehran over what was said in that one on one?  Alliances.  A bond that has always been temporary. Soleimani…..Big Macs my friend….be thinking of Big Macs!   

NORTH KOREA….IRAN AND THE BIG MAC BETRAYAL 

          Many of us have known of the “relationship” between North Korea and Iran and the desires for nuclear weapons. But now…..now…it appears the allure of a Big Mac is going to win the day. Is it possible? Could the Little Fat Guy give up on his religious zealot partners for Ronald and Donald? My oh my, things seemed to go from bad worse for the old men in Tehran, or at least it appears that way. What if? What if there truly is a break in the relationship between North Korea and Iran. Then what? What is Iran to do? Who can they turn to? Betrayed over a Burger?  

Let’s play. Let’s play my favorite game.

What if?

          What if the two nations believed they could transfer the knowledge or even the weapons themselves? Could they get away with such an act? Is it possible to move the vital parts of a weapon or weapons without being detected? As the saying goes, “anything is possible”, but it’s highly unlikely. Hint. Not so unlikely that I didn’t find a way to work it into my pending book😊 Even if the US / West / did miss such a movement, would the Chinese or the Russians allow this to take place? Again, highly unlikely.

What if?

          What if this whole denuclearization event was a stunt? The little Fat Guy was just trying to play The Donald. Well, the reality is, both North Korea and Iran will never get the chance to show the world what they own or were trying to own. Getting both nations to sit at the table and then have North Korea drop a political bombshell, well, in my opinion, that cannot be the plan designed in the land of the Dragon. If it was, then the word needs to hold on tight because that outcome would only be designed with a much larger crisis in mind. If this is an “I got ya” moment, then Iran will still be on their own. There won’t be anyone in North Korea’s government to answer the phone.

What if?

          What if, when it’s all over, the Little Fat Guy is stuffing down Big Macs at the new Trump Tower in Pyongyang? What does the old man in Tehran do? I was the guy who came up with the “ You go…. I go” concept between Iran and North Korea. Just search this blog site and you will see what I mean. If the “You” is removed, what is Tehran to do? One is the loneliest number!

What If?

          Now, I don’t think this one is much of a “what if”. This topic is more along the lines of, “ Oh Ya, now that makes sense”. What if the isolation of Iran was the major secondary goal of The Donald? What if China and Russia knew this and the understanding between the three nations was ether agreed to or tolerated? What does Iran truly mean to China or Russia other than a source of fuel? Yes, Iran could be utilized as a proxy nation in the quest to counter the US, but the issue becomes, is it needed? If some larger game is in play now, let’s say, the Pacific or the South China Sea, then Iran is once again sitting out in the hall while the Big Boys discuss business.  The future of relations between the US, China and Russia is not going to be determined by Iran’s input. North Korea is the key to US/ China relations and Iran is not going to change that fact. The reduction of US forces in the region is the goal of China. The reduction of nuclear madmen is the goal of all three major players. Both Iran and North Korea are ruled by such men, but the guy who seems to want a Big Mac has a chance to survive. Watch the Quneitra region of Syria this week. The fate of Iran may well be shown. If I was an Iranian military Commander, I would be thinking about Big Mac’s and not Syria.

By the way. I gave in.  My twitter tag is                ColDan11.. it has the Thunderbolt and Lighting Cap:) 

IRAN’S ENRICHMENT THREAT. THEY EDGE CLOSER TO THE ABYSS.

          Khamenei orders the preparation for enrichment? Unless the EU falls on it’s knees and meet’s the crazy old man’s demands, the Iranians will press ahead with enrichment. I fully realize this delusional zealot doesn’t care how this statement will play in Israel, but I can assure you, his military leaders do. Does anyone truly believe Israel will allow Khamenei’s threat to become reality? Yes, it will take some period of time set the enrichment process in motion, but that only holds true if they truly were not already prepared to do so. Does Khamenei see the EU leaders as so weak that this threat may actually work? Is Iran convinced  the EU is that addicted to their new found trade with Iran? If this threat by Khamenei is nothing more than a bluff, and I don’t think it is, then have they thought about the results of it not working? What is the crazy old man trying to accomplish? Russia is on the verge of gaining ground in the battle of support from the EU and as such, there is no possible chance of Iran gaining support from their so called “Ally”. If Iran is going to threaten the West with the restart of their weapon’s program, a program they stated they never had, then the only logical question is, why? What else may be taking place here? Just how desperate is Tehran?

Going it Alone:

          A conflict between Iran and Israel has only one outcome for Iran. The Iranian list of “ who is with us”, is very……..very short. Hezbollah and perhaps a few slices of Hamas, but I wouldn’t count on that part. Lebanon? Nope. Hezbollah may have the upper hand in Lebanon’s government, but the destruction of Lebanon for the sake of Iran is not going to happen. Russia? Forget Russia. As I have said time and time again, there is money to be made after a devastating war with Israel and Moscow loves to make post conflict money. Really, everyone does! Are their own. That is the reality for the old men in Tehran. On their own and at the end of the conflict most likely completely unable to control the anger of the youth inside the country. Yes, the IRGC has been attempting to build a nationalistic movement with the youth of Iran, but some of us think that is for the post, conflict Iran. Is Iran able to inflict damage on Israel or those that might support them? Yes, and that is exactly why the IDF will not wait until the Iranians are prepared for that level of conflict. Netanyahu’s visit to the EU nations was not about trade. His message was clear. Israel will never allow Iran to restart a program Israel already believes still exist. Iran is threatening to push this crisis to the next level. The old man’s plan is the EU will fold and give Iran as much as it can. That plan is insane. Last week, the statement was made, NATO will not support Israel in a conflict with Iran. Not a single commander or planner in NATO thinks for a single second, Israel would need NATO’s support. The crazy old man’s threat to the UN may make the Progressive Liberals worry, but I can assure you, that same threat worries the Iranian military commanders far more. Let’s see what  idiotic statement comes from Tehran next. PS. I would have loved to have seen the looks on the Iranian Commander's faces when the old man came up with this idea. 

IRAN’S NEXT ROUND OF CASUALTIES:  

          It’s been a few days, but here is the short version of what is taking place with Iran. It appears the so called widening rift between Moscow and Tehran is growing, as if there was ever some Bromance going on. Israel seems to have informed Moscow an Iranian, Hezbollah combat force anywhere near the Israeli border is a legitimate target. Moscow believes the Israelis are uncompromising on this point. Moscow makes the statement, “ All forces should leave Syria”. The attempt there to address the US issue. Problem is, that issue has already been addressed and the compromise has been made between the US and Russia. Therefore, the statement was made for the government of Syria. Problem. Tehran doesn’t agree and they have grown tired of Moscow acting as if they will determine the future of Syria. No Bromance there! Next comes the issue of the Iranian forces not doing as Moscow stated. Did Moscow really think they would? No. Does that open the door for Moscow not supporting them when the IDF strikes them? Yes, why do you think the statement was made. CYA, that’s why. Now, Tehran may be delusional, they may think their forces in Syria can protect themselves, but the Iranian military commanders know better. The bodies being flown back to Iran are proof enough. So, do you order the units to move away from the border or do you put on Syrian uniforms? Problem. The IDF knows this trick and that won’t save the Iranian units. Whose Idea was that, not a military commander’s. Now, the next phase of the problem comes up. The IDF is reported to be building forces along the Syrian border near Quneitra. Buildup? Maybe. For weeks now, the story has been the building Iranian, Hezbollah footprint in the same area. Why would the Syrian government announce this IDF “buildup”? Is it to justify attacking it? That would be insane. The attempt is to once again, place the aggressive blame on Israel. Again, the next part of the problem. Israel doesn’t care if an aggressive label is placed on them. If they move to neutralize the Iranian threat in that region, then that is exactly what they will do.  The next phase of the problem, from the viewpoint of Tehran, is the fact that if Israel moves on the Quneitra area, the US will back them every step of the way. With military support? No. they don’t need to. The IDF doesn’t need the US’s help in crushing Iranian units in Syria. Oh, and by the way, they don’t need NATO’s help ether. What a stupid statement that was, but that’s another story. So Boys and Girls, here is the scorecard. Iran is on the brink of once again getting its assets in Syrian crushed by the IDF and once again, Moscow will sit back and watch. Resupply, it’s a lucrative business in the Middle East. 

          Well, there you have it. The simplistic version of this weeks tension between Israel and Iran….oh ya….and Moscow!

The IDF needs to drop leaflets on the Quneitra area that say only one thing.  “ RUN”!

CHINA 25.... POWER PLANTS AND GENERATION ZEN:

As much as I really wanted to address the issue of Syria and the growing tension between Russia and Iran, I couldn’t overlook an even larger issue. China. As I was reading Asia Times this morning, I came across three articles that really struck me. Perhaps it was the order I read them in or perhaps that’s just what the folks at Asia Times intended.

Made in China 2025:

The first was an update on the “Made in China 2025” plan that Xi has put all of his might behind. If you have not read about this plan, I would suggest you do or you won’t understand what is taking place and is going to take place in the global, economic arena. My version of this story is simple. How can the US force the Chinese to the table on trade issues if the Chinese goal is China goods are primarily for Chinese citizens? If China’s intent is to sell internally, and it is, then why should the care about US made goods? The reality is, the China 2025 plan anticipates a reduction in US, technological goods. Did Trump possibly make the right move when the US came to the table leveraging food production and the growing demand inside China? Is the US capable of slowing China 2025? Yes, they would like to, but can they? Xi’s continued speeches on what is really expansionism continue their / his / vison of world dominance.  Made in China 2025 is a tool. Made in China 2025 is part of a much larger vision. Oh, by the way. Xi may have given his speech on the topic of becoming the leaders in technological development, but the immediate future, the plan still is to buy the companies overseas and send their technology back to China. Just ask the US their two pending law suits. It’s not corporate theft if you by the whole company right?

Microgrids:

               It seems the installation of China’s modern-day version of Roman Outpost / Garrisons /is nearly complete. Independent power for each island location. Each a nearly standalone fighting position. Does anyone remember when these new slices of land popped up on commercial satellite images? The Chinese answer was, “don’t worry. They are nothing more than scientific research locations”. What they failed to say was the “scientific research” was based upon military hardware. Yep. The Devil is always in the details.  The fact of the matter is, these outpost are all part of a much larger vision. Grab the South China Sea and all of it’s resources and control the Littoral lanes. Stack on top of this expansionist step the New Silk Road and the pathway is easy to see.

The Danger Zone:

               Just when I thought reading the Asia Times this morning was going to raise my Dragonphobic levels to new highs, I came upon the Generation Zen article. China has Snowflakes? Can you just imagine Xi’s face when he is told about these kids………………. Millions of them and according to the story, the virus is spreading. How can China become the new Ruler of the 21^st century if the Zen Kids are turning into Teletubbies?  Just when Chinese leaders were about to launch Operation Domination, their children start coming down with an illness that could ruin everything. Passiveness. No desire for world domination. No desire for New Silk Roads. No great Sea Battle Victory celebration over the South China Sea or the Pacific. What in the world is going on here? The next generation of Chinese are turning into human blobs! It must be someone’s fault? It has to be someone’s fault. Who has done this? Xi’s wants answers and he wants a cure and he want’s it soon!

               From day one, some of us have had the theory the Chinese vision had one real fault. Individualism. The plan was to turn China into a huge Capitalistic machine that utilized It’s vast labor market to produce goods far cheaper than the rest of the world. The plan called for this machine to fund the new, modern military and at the same time get the rest of the world so addicted to items from China they couldn’t possibly want to turn off a good thing. Everyone loves their low coast China products. That was the plan. At some date in the future, a future set almost 40 years ago, China would step onto the world stage as the new leader. Xi’ is that leader and that date on the stage was not so far away. But, this theory always had one flaw. In order to defeat the Western Capitalistic Enemy, you had to become like the enemy. The government was prepared for such a risk, but the public, that was the fear. If you start to give a slice of 1.5 Billion people something, then the rest may desire the same. China 2025 and the New Silk Road are now about one thing, keeping the balance. China showed it’s people the other side of the fence and how green the grass was, but now what? The plan was, those that had shown this level of capitalistic greed would be made examples of. After all, this love of materials and wealth was not the Communist Chinese way. Xi’ set out to round up all of those that China had used to reach this stage. Those who desired to seek fame and fortune were identified and placed before the people. China went as far as placing the blame on prominent military leaders. The next phase of China’s drive to the top was here.  It was no longer time to desire a car just like the kids in the US or Europe were driving. The time had come to spark the nationalistic fire! Taiwan was and is the scapegoat, but the goal is not just Taiwan or any other nation that dare to stand in the way of China’s right to the South China Sea. The goal was to launch the next generation of nationalist. The generation that would demand China rule the world. But, at just this moment in history for China, now comes the story of the Zen Generation. The kids born out of the capitalistic times of China.  Ah yes. The Law of Unintended Consequences. Xi’ and his team didn’t anticipate the Chinese Teletubbies. Now what? How can fifty years of planning go up in flames because of Teletubbies? How does Xi stop this virus from spreading? How does he reach the zenith of Nationalism? If this virus is growing as some state it is, then what is to be done? Can he get them to walk into the streets of Beijing and then just drive over them with tanks? It worked in the past, the last time this virus had an outbreak, but that was before social media and China hates social media.

               These Zen kids are under close observation. The Chinese Snowflakes will need to be neutralized somehow. Xi must figure out if these kids have an hope of becoming Nationalist or are they just too passive? If this continues, he will need an “event”. If there is any hope of stopping this virus, it may require the speeding up of the master plan. Scare the little Snowflakes and see if they have a spine. If not, then the real problems begin.

               Dear Taiwan;

                              I would strongly suggest you prepare for more than just overflights. Xi may have a problem and you may become the “event”.