KIM AND MOON FALL INTO EACH OTHER’S ARMS…….NOW WHAT?

               Historic! Unprecedented! Meaningful….and so on …..and so on…….now what? I’m beginning to really wonder about this Chess Game between China and the US. “ You will go there and you will hug him and kiss him and you will plant a tree!!!! You will promise him the Moon / 😊/ and you will take tons of pictures. You will talk of families and hope. You  will get the youth of South Korea envisioning a unified Korea and then when the time comes, you will tell Trump, ‘ we are going to work towards a denuclearized Peninsula, we meaning North and South Korea………..not you’”!

The Dragon’s Objective:

               What is the strategic goal of China? The reduction, drastic reduction, of US military capabilities in the region. What would happen to the support for US forces on South Korean land if the two Koreas finally seemed to be grasping hands and suddenly The Donald slaps them down and states, “There is no deal unless you destroy your weapons”? Can the Chinese drive a wedge between the South Korean youth and the US? Can a unified Korean Peninsula dream lead to the demand for the US military to leave? Is China willing to see a unified Korea under Western / US / influence? Does the world realize the historic importance of that slice of the world to China? Do the Chinese allow the proven path of invasion to fall into the hands of the West? Perhaps the timing of this movement was not The Donald’s idea? Perhaps a nation that prides itself on deep planning is in control of what will happen next. What if a few weeks from now, it’s The Donald that is seen as the hindrance to the future of the Peninsula? Seoul has been the scene of many public protest, protest that turn very….very….violent. Are we heading in that direction? Is The Donald capable of avoiding this trap. One thing is for sure. If my hunch is correct, there will be no big contract for the Little Fat Guy in Hangover Four!

JCPOA AND NORTH KOREAN AND THE ART OF THE DEAL.

               In a period of under a month, perhaps quicker, two huge topics will be placed on the table. The future of the North Korean nuclear weapon’s program and the future of the Iranian nuclear weapon’s program. Happenstance? On face value, many might say yes. I mean, how could the US have manipulated a meeting with the North Koreans at nearly the same time the JCPOA issue was due to come up again? Then again, we are talking about The Donald and the good Lord knows anything is possible when you factor in that part of the equation. Would the Russians want these two topics so close together? Would the Chinese? Could they wish to push the US on both issues so close together that a disastrous out was guaranteed? “The Art of the Deal”. Did Russia and or China bother to read the book? My bet is the coincidence of these two huge events taking place so close together is no coincidence. My bet is, The Donald has manipulated the timing of these events to the best of his ability. So, if there is a reason why both of these are taking place so close together, than you can bet the Chinese and the Russians are working hard to figure it out. Have they been told something by The Donald? Maybe. Do they believe whatever he may have told them? Now, that’s a good question. The more important question becomes, do ether of them truly understand how The Donald plays the game. Did they read his book and did they understand his message?

JCPOA:

               It appears this event will take place first. It will be the message The Donald wants to send to North Korea and it’s Puppet Master, China. By, the way, I wonder if the Little Fat Guy really is contemplating cutting the strings and jumping onto the Western stage? Rumors are out there and China is listening to them. Who put those rumors out there? Read the book! Okay, back on tract here. Hardball. That is what the JCPOA is going to be. Will the US decide to pull out? The Donald may have still been on the fence and that is why Germany and France came running to DC, but the loudmouth remarks from Tehran were nothing more than stupid! Poke your finger in The Donald’s eye, just prior to him making a decision, and see what that gets you. Mr. Macron stated The Donald is going to pull out. Now, don’t you know that sent off the alarm bells in Berlin and Moscow. The Iranians are moving military hardware into Syria in a ever quickening pace and it’s being done with the Russian’s approval. Does that help the situation? Is Moscow trying to play the bluff game again with the US and Israel? Iran out and out threatens the US if they do pull out of the agreement and that helps how? At face value, it appears the US is letting Russia and Iran have their way with Syria. The constant talk of the US pulling out and now, after the meeting in DC, the French stating they will be leaving. Leaving what? The larger battlefield that is coming? The Donald told the American people the JCPOA was one of the worst “deals” ever made by the US. Does anyone think he is going to just continue to kick that can down the road? If you were the other signatories to that agreement, would you not want to find some new middle ground? Does anyone think for a minute The Donald is going to accept the statement, “ it’s the best deal we could come up with”!  Again……..READ THE BOOK! Israel brought fighters home from a Joint Exercise. Unusual? Maybe, but timing right now is everything. A message is going to be sent to North Korea and it’s going to come from the other side of the world.

 North Korea:

               Now, this event has a Crazy Eddie factor. The Little Fat Guy. Has he really spit in the Face of the Dragon? I doubt it. Is he contemplating making decisions that are not coordinated by China? He better hope he’s not. Does the outcome of this meeting mean different things to the Russians than for the Chinese? Yes. Is The Donald going to come to the table, “hardball style”? yes. Can North Korea afford to have this historic meeting end in failure? It depends on what the Chinese are looking for. The reduction of US influence, military influence in the region. That is what China is looking for and North Korea has been told what their part is and they better not get off script. Now, remember, the odds are this meeting will have taken place after The Donald has decided on the Iranian issue and that decision will have been made with the desire for it to impact the North Korean event. If the world wants to see what might take place when North Korea sits down with the US, then pay very close attention to what takes place with JCPOA. My hunch is, The Donald has this mapped out. The question is, does his staff know!

GENERAL VOLTEL  IN  ISRAEL.  UNUSUAL?  YES...YES IT IS.

               General Votel was tasked to explain to Israel the US’s intent for reduction of forces in Syria. Yes, that is something the US Department of State usually heads up, but The Donald does nothing based upon the word, “usual”. The technical details how the US’s plans to operate in Syria is designed by the General’s staff, not the DoS. The concept of this General showing up in Israel is a message in itself. Who is the message for? Take a guess. Two parties really. Iran and Russia with a side-note for Egodan. So, is that it? Did General Votel travel to Israel just to show them the “exit plan”? Not so fast Batman! This so called first of it’s kind trip could have had far more important intentions.

SA 300s:

               Yes, the Russian seem to be delivering SA 300s to the Syrian Army. By the way, delivering them and making them operational are two very different issues. Yes, Israel has made it abundantly clear this weapon system in the hands of the Syrian Army, the one that protects Hezbollah, is not acceptable and unlike Obama, when Israel states something is unacceptable, they mean it. General Votel is the Senior US Military Commander in the region. How could this topic not come up? Does anyone think for a second the General would not attempt to take a temperature test of Israel’s intentions?  Did he only meet with civilian, political members of Israel? Do you really believe he didn’t sit down with the IDF? Yes, General Votel’s staff can see the indicators if the IDF begins to ramp up for something major, but that makes having that conversation all the more vital to anticipating what may take place. The reality is this. Iran is feeling more embolden by the day. The Nuclear “deal” is an issue that is about to be placed on the table and it doesn’t look good for the “deal” continuing in its current format. Hezbollah creeps ever closer to the Israeli border. Russia seems to be standing by Iran’s actions, although I don’t believe it’s honest support. The footprint of US forces in Syria is a minor issue when you add up all the other events that could be about to take place. Was the purpose of the meeting or was that the cover story? One thing is for sure, General Votel’s staff will know. I was part of that team once and that building knows what the primary effort is at all times. Iran will not be allowed to have a combat capability in Syria and all the parades and all the podium pounding in the world will not prevent the IDF from stopping Iran’s plan. General Voltel has completed that meeting and you can bet what he was told has been relayed to DC. Now, let’s see what the next speech from Tehran has to say. You can pound on the podium all you want, but you better stay close to your bunker and it better be deep!

отчим

 THE IRANIAN NUCLEAR “DEAL”…HARSH WORDS FROM TEHRAN 

               Shocker! The Iranians release yet another press statement warning the US about pulling out of the nuclear accord. Remember the kid who was the biggest mouth on the street as he stood behind his parent’s front door? Yep, The Iranians and the Tsar. Threatening The Donald? Like that is going to work, but then again, it’s not a statement designed for the US population. Once again, the big talk from Tehran is intended for it’s own population and it’s close neighbors. Did anyone in the US even pay attention to the latest threat from the Persians? No. Did Iran’s own people care what was said? Not really. They are too occupied trying to figure out how they can talk to each other or the outside world without the government kicking down their doors. So did this ‘ You’ll be sorry’ statement do any good? Nope! Perhaps what the Tehran mouthpiece should have said was, “ My Daddy / the Tsar/ will beat you up if you don’t do as I say”! But, like any adopted Brat, here is the problem when you have a Vodka loving Step Father……………..he doesn’t give a sh--  about you! Iran is what Iran has been to Russia……a pawn in a much larger game. Fuel and the price of fuel and the future of NATO in Eastern Europe, that is what’s important to Moscow. So, as long as those two issues are on the table, then the little Brat at the front door will be allowed to flap his gums and make funny faces; all the time looking over his shoulder to see if Stepdad is still standing there. This little Brat has one very real problem. In this same neighborhood lives two other kids that really…….really….. hate the little Brat at door. As if that was not bad enough for the loudmouth kid, one of the two that hates him is growing more and more willing to punch the Brat in the face even with his  Stepdad looking on. But…………..but………… this is a risky plan. It’s not just the words of this little punk that can push the other kid over the top. The pain factor has to be higher than that, at least for now. Enter the straw!

SA 300s in Syria:

               The Straw the broke the Camel’s back. Apropos right? I mean, come on….Camels? Mr. Lavrov has all but announced SA 300s are now being deployed with the Syrian Army. It’s the shield for Hezbollah forces that Israel has made very clear they will not tolerate. Moscow has been told this, face to face. Will someone try to reassure Israel these weapons will only protect parts of Damascus? Is there some silly explanation the Russians will try to hand the Israelis, or will they just make the event happen and let the chips fall where they may? At what point does Israel simply call the bluff and strike, realizing the next strike may have to be all the way? Just how far can you push this kid in the neighborhood who has dealt with this same Brat for years? Is the Stepfather pushing the kid he doesn’t even like out the front door and making him fight? Iran and Israel in a open, military confrontation. Can you say 100…150 per Barrel? Perhaps Stepdad needs the money!  My bet is the Brat kid is going to get the hell beat out of him. He better keep one hand on that doorknob. By the way.............close the door and have The Donald put NATO and Eastern Europe on the table as a trade for the Brat and watch Putin toss this kid out into the street! 

LAVROV’S INTERVIEW’S CONTINUE:

               It’s been a few days, but I am still digesting the latest interview provided by Mr. Lavrov. Just about the time I thought the HARDtalk piece was a bombshell, Sputnik post yet another interview with what appears to be the man of the hour. Now, it’s a given, Sputnik is a mouthpiece for Moscow, but then again, so is CNN and MSNBC and FOX and the BBC, so in the long run, it’s just the way the game is played now. Was the timeline of this interview deliberate? Was it designed to follow what took place on HARDtalk? You bet it was. Did it add anything to the “message” coming from Moscow. Not really, but that doesn’t mean much when the HARDtalk event was a complete, “in your face” event. So the Sputnik didn’t intend to add material, but it did reinforce a concept I now find more troubling than ever.

 The Donald and the US Military:

               Below, is a slice of the Sputnik interview and you need to pay close attention to the theme Mr. Lavrov continued. What is the relationship between the US military and the US President?

Sputnik: 103 missiles were launched, 71 of them were shot down. Trump said that he called somebody to ask if all the rockets reached their targets, and the person on the other end of the line said "yes-yes, every one of them, Mr. President." Whom could he call?

Lavrov: I don't know whom, in such cases, the President of the United States calls. Our President doesn't have to call — he's reported to, when such things happen. And I would prefer not to meditate on the theme of relations inside the US Administration or how some officials in Washington treat the position and orders of their President. Speaking about the risk of a military confrontation, I feel absolutely confident in assuming that the militaries will not allow this, and of course neither will President Putin or President Trump. They are leaders, after all, elected by their people and responsible for their peace.

           

            If you can’t see the “message” here, then you will not understand the danger of what is taking place. “Relations inside the US Administration”? Now, think about that for a minute. Just how vulnerable does Moscow think the US has become? For months, some of us have been preaching just how dangerous it was for the rest of the world to see the US leadership in crisis. Was this some complex plot by the Russians to disrupt the US? Is this all some complex, Master Plan to bring the US to it’s knees? Is that what the Russians want, a world in crisis as the US teeters on disaster? It may not have been their idea, but the ability to manipulate what is taking place in the US is not lost upon the Russians and frankly, several others. How could the US look anything but dysfunctional? All anyone must do is watch the evening news from the US and it looks like the government is melting down. Why would the Russians not try to leverage this US crisis? But, what puzzles me, is the emphasis on the relationship between the US military and the President. The destructive attitudes of the US two party system is something the American people have come to expect, but questioning the loyalty of the US Military to the Commander in Chief, that is a very disturbing twist, event coming from Moscow. Do the Russians have the ability to monitor, at some level, the communications taking place between key US Military officials? Yes. If there is one thing I know for sure, it’s the reality that Senior Officers and texting is a problem that seems unsolvable. Could the Russians be capturing just enough information to weaponize what they perceive is pattern of discontent? Absolutely. Now, if you take this theory and add to it the rumor I spoke of last week, you may begin to feel even more nervous with what the Russians are doing. In case you forgot, the “Rumor” was, supported by Mr. Lavrov’s interview on HARDtalk, the US military was against the level of strikes The Donald wanted to execute in Syria. The second part of that “rumor” was the idea of the US Military communicating with the Russian Military on what was going to take place. The assumption is, The Donald didn’t authorize that communication, but the US military leadership did so anyway. For the record, I don’t buy that part of the “Rumor”. What I do find more than plausible, is the idea the US President did authorize an “unofficial” communication to take place, one that his staff would disavowal if asked by the media.  The risk were too high not to take that action. If the US President’s target list was too much for his Commanders to support, then yes, that would have been a very….very….heated event. That part is most likely true.

Trap:

            Here is the trap I think the Russians executed. If the US President stands up and tells his nation, along with his staff, that the Russians were not informed of the strike, then planting the seed that was not what took place would only add fuel to the political fire already burring inside the US. The Donald, to hear the Democrats say it, is completely in bed with Mr. Putin. If he tells the nation he didn’t inform them and then the Russians hint that he did, the only result is more damage to current President of the US. If there is one game the Russian love to play and they play it very well, it’s the “I gotcha” game.

           All of this is a great deal of speculation, but these two recent interviews by Mr. Lavrov, have a common theme. The US Military is “working” with the Russian Military. If it was anyone but The Donald, nobody would think twice about that statement. Hell, if it was Obama, they would be nominating him for the Nobel Peace Prize again. We all see how that turned out. Just asked the people of Libya!

NORTH KOREA. DID EVERYONE FORGET ABOUT THE PENDING MEETING?

               Now, I’ll admit it’s hard to keep North Korea at the forefront of the conversation when the media has been pondering a potential conflict between the US and Russia. Add to that, the increasing likelihood of an Israeli / Iranian / Hezbollah conflict and yes, North Korea becomes a temporary sidebar issue.  That being said, it seems The Donald pushed the North Korean issue back to the front of the line yesterday. Secret meetings have been taking place? Secret meetings are always taking place. Is that news? It seems The Donald wants it to be. Good old Twitter. To hear the story, the groundwork is being hammered out prior to the meeting between the Little Fat Guy and The Donald. Typical? Yes, but nothing and I do mean nothing is “Typical” when it comes to The Donald. If the North Koreans are finding out anything, they are learning their meeting in the past with the US are nothing like the meeting the US expects this time around. Fooling the normal Presidents of the US like North Korea has done several times in the past will not be the formula for success, delay, this time around. This time around it’s The Donald they are dealing with and I would be willing to bet they understand there is a difference this time. So what’s the expectation this time. More specifically, what is the expectation of the North Koreans? Oh ya….add to that the expectation of the Dragon and the Tsar. If you leave those two parts of the equation out, you have completely lost the ability to predict any outcome.

Broken Promises:

               Tell The Donald you are going to do one thing with the intention of doing something completely different and you have made a dangerous mistake. If you set out to make the Tsar look like a fool and you succeed, you have just taking your life into your own hands. The same holds true for The Donald and the Little Fat Guy needs to really understand that point. If the US Administration is hinting the North “rally” wants to come to terms with the US and South Korea is saying they think it’s true, then sitting down to the table and suddenly having a list of demands would be nearly suicidal. This meeting is being build as the “Real Deal” this time. The North is going to end it’s nuclear program. Well, that is how the story is being sold. Forget the history of broken promises. It’s a new day in North Korea. The end is near! It’s what everyone wants right? Lets think about the Dragon and the Tsar before we start to pop the Champagne bottles.

The Dragon’s Wishes:

               If you have followed this blog, then you know my theory on Chinas Master Plan. The goal is to remove the argument for US forces being stationed in the area. A united Korea is the tool that allows that argument to be placed upon the US’s table. “Korea is united and safe. Why are you still there”? Can China spend the money to make this unification dream economically feasible? Easy. Can China get the Little Fat Guy to go along with the plan? Like I’ve said before, ether he will, or his replacement will. Beside, I think the guy secretly wants to party and play like he’s in the movie “Hangover”. The reduction of US forces in South Korea is something The Donald would agree to. It may not be an overnight complete pull out, but a phased approached based upon the actions of North and South Korea. As a matter of fact, he mentioned in when he was on the campaign trail and this seems to be a guy who likes to click off the checklist of things he talked about. Imagine that! So, don’t be shocked, like I know the Pentagon Generals will, if you hear the US is agreeing to a controlled withdrawal from the Korean Peninsula. If China even gets the hint that this is possible, and they probably already have, then there wil be a full court press to make this meeting truly historic.

The Tsar Get’s a Vote:

               Is there a spoiler in this scenario? What’s in it for the Russians to see the US and North Korea come to terms? Is it not the current objective of the Russians to make the US look like the benchmark of Evil in the world? Remember the statement, “ Genocide by Sanctions”? Why would the Russians be in favor of a reduction of US forces in South Korea? The Donald is not about to reduce the US military budget based upon a force reduction in South Korea. He just finished one of his campaign promises by drastically increasing that budget. Did he say it doesn’t make good economic sence to have that force in South Korea? Well, that was somewhat the message on the campaign trial, but that was all about others paying their fair share. The Tsar understands the reduction of US forces in South Korea would lead to a redeployment of those forces to areas of the world were the dangers to the US and it’s Allies are still present. Yep, a reduction of forces in South Korea can lead to an increase in Europe, Jordan, Saudi Arabia or few other locations the Russians would rather not see reinforced. Again, what’s in it for the Tsar? Like most large business transactions, the payouts are not made just to the primary parties. What does Russia get out of this deal? What is China willing to give in order to sweeten the deal for those that can make the transaction more difficult? You can bet this part of the process has been underway for some time now, perhaps even longer than the big announcement of the pending meeting.

Wrap Up:

               Okay, so this meeting is going to take place. It may very well be historical. It may even lead to a change in doctrine and that won’t go over well with the Military Industrial Complex in the West, although The Donald tossed enough money at them in the budget, they should be happy for a year or two. It appears The Donald has huge expectations for this event, but he’s a skilled Businessman. Talk is not going to be enough. I’m not even sure this meeting is really about the little Fat Guy. It could very well be the deal is being done with the Chinese and the meeting with the North Korean Movistar wannabe is for show. Lets see what the next few weeks of tweets tells us. That is where we will get the best indication of what The Donald expects. One thing you can rest assured of. If The Donald pulls this off, CNN and MSNBC will give him absolutely no credit. As a matter of fact, they will find a way to make it looks as if The Donald screwed the whole thing up.        

LAVROV ON BBC’S HARDtalk. “ LOOKS LIKE GENOCIDE BY SANCTIONS”!

               Mr. Lavrov agrees to be interviewed on HARDtalk? Why? The Russians know this is the BBC’s version of the US’s old Morton Downey Show. Not exactly Mr. Larov’s style of communicating. So, why? Why agree to sit with this loudmouth from London? Is it part of the Information Operation process as the Russians continue down the path towards some larger objective? Was it Mr. Lavrov being told to face the accusations against Russia, almost exclusively from the West? The answer is, both are correct. Yes the Russians seem to be rearranging the playing field the West is operating on, why wouldn’t they? So, let’s get past the question of why Mr. Lavrov came on this controversial show and let’s focus on the “message” he gave.

Genocide by Sanctions:

               Lavrov ended this rather heated interview with this comment. Any professional speaker knows his or her closing comment needs to be the strongest statement and Mr. Lavrov is a professional. If that doesn’t worry you, then you need to reevaluate your understanding of what is taking place here. “Genocide”! A world he would have carefully chosen. His admission that sanctions are hurting the Russian economy and the Russian people cannot be undervalued, but the use of the word “Genocide” has meaning far beyond economic impacts. I can assure you, as this interview was analyzed by the Intelligence community, that word struck a very alarming cord.  The West is practicing some level of Genocide on the Russian people? Is that truly the thought process in Moscow? Are the Russians that paranoid? It stuck me when he said this and it struck a lot of other people as well. It was perhaps the most alarming word ever to have been spoken by Russia’s Foreign Minister. What is going on here? How bad is this scenario between the West and Russia truly becoming? The Russian government, Putin, believes the West is practicing  a form of Genocide on the Russian people?  What other hints did Mr. Lavrov give?

Worse than a new Cold War:  

               “There are no safeguards”! Yes, the Cold War had “Safeguards”. Backchannel communications, proxy wars. The Cold War had escape valves to prevent open conflict between the Super Powers. Mr. Lavrov now states those Safeguards are gone. If there was a second statement in this interview that set the analyst back on their heels, it was this one. The stupid analyst, and there are thousands of them, will most likely blow this statement and interview off as Mr. Lavrov being agitated by the Host. Don’t you buy that for a second. This arrogant blowhard on the BBC is not capable of knocking Lavrov off his center. Yes, Lavrov had a few moments when he was inpatient with the Host, but he slapped him back into place with classic Russian style. I can just hear Lavrov’s mind clicking away. “Keep it up little man and you to will fall off your balcony”! Look, this statement about safeguards was thought out. The description of what they use to be and who has taken them away now was a very methodical approach. So, what was the real message with this statement? “Things are getting very dangerous”! To me, that is the implied message. Let’s hope the so called “experts” figure that one out. Okay, was there any glimmer of hope in Mr. Lavrov’s interview? Yes…..yes there was…………. But let’s hope it’s not overlooked.

Professional, Military to Military Communications:

               The Russian military and the US military continue to communicate, and Mr. Lavrov made that very clear. As I stated a few days ago, the strike was “communicated” to the Russians, you just must understand the US’s definition of “We”. What I did find odd about this segment of the show was my gut feeling Lavrov was implying something. If my theory of the Russians applying pressure at all corners of Western governance, was there a subliminal theme here of, “The US military can save the US from a true crisis………..a war”. There was just something about the way Lavrov broached this statement that set off my spider senses. Getting our house in order as Mr. Lavrov called it was an element of this message. So, the US government is a crisis in itself, but the US military is the true professional in the room? Interesting….very interesting. The art of destabilization is a skill craft the Russians are world leaders on. In a time of foolish political decisions, can the US military make decisions the civilian government doesn’t support? What happened with this “communication” that took place between the Russians and the US? Did the US military provide a greater picture of what was going to happen than the administration authorized? Is that the picture Lavrov is painting? Did that really happen, or is this just another tool in the Russian Information Operations weapon’s program? Yes, there were rumors in the US of the military not wanting to go as hard as The Donald wanted to, but that’s nothing new. Just look at Johnson and Vietnam. Och….bad example.  Tension between the US civilian government and the US military, is that the point of exploitation? If so, then we have our answer as to why Mr. Lavrov gave this interview.  No safeguards, a government practicing Genocide and a military in conflict with it’s own civilian leadership. Wow. This was a wild interview……maybe!