LAVROV’S INTERVIEW’S CONTINUE:

               It’s been a few days, but I am still digesting the latest interview provided by Mr. Lavrov. Just about the time I thought the HARDtalk piece was a bombshell, Sputnik post yet another interview with what appears to be the man of the hour. Now, it’s a given, Sputnik is a mouthpiece for Moscow, but then again, so is CNN and MSNBC and FOX and the BBC, so in the long run, it’s just the way the game is played now. Was the timeline of this interview deliberate? Was it designed to follow what took place on HARDtalk? You bet it was. Did it add anything to the “message” coming from Moscow. Not really, but that doesn’t mean much when the HARDtalk event was a complete, “in your face” event. So the Sputnik didn’t intend to add material, but it did reinforce a concept I now find more troubling than ever.

 The Donald and the US Military:

               Below, is a slice of the Sputnik interview and you need to pay close attention to the theme Mr. Lavrov continued. What is the relationship between the US military and the US President?

Sputnik: 103 missiles were launched, 71 of them were shot down. Trump said that he called somebody to ask if all the rockets reached their targets, and the person on the other end of the line said "yes-yes, every one of them, Mr. President." Whom could he call?

Lavrov: I don't know whom, in such cases, the President of the United States calls. Our President doesn't have to call — he's reported to, when such things happen. And I would prefer not to meditate on the theme of relations inside the US Administration or how some officials in Washington treat the position and orders of their President. Speaking about the risk of a military confrontation, I feel absolutely confident in assuming that the militaries will not allow this, and of course neither will President Putin or President Trump. They are leaders, after all, elected by their people and responsible for their peace.

           

            If you can’t see the “message” here, then you will not understand the danger of what is taking place. “Relations inside the US Administration”? Now, think about that for a minute. Just how vulnerable does Moscow think the US has become? For months, some of us have been preaching just how dangerous it was for the rest of the world to see the US leadership in crisis. Was this some complex plot by the Russians to disrupt the US? Is this all some complex, Master Plan to bring the US to it’s knees? Is that what the Russians want, a world in crisis as the US teeters on disaster? It may not have been their idea, but the ability to manipulate what is taking place in the US is not lost upon the Russians and frankly, several others. How could the US look anything but dysfunctional? All anyone must do is watch the evening news from the US and it looks like the government is melting down. Why would the Russians not try to leverage this US crisis? But, what puzzles me, is the emphasis on the relationship between the US military and the President. The destructive attitudes of the US two party system is something the American people have come to expect, but questioning the loyalty of the US Military to the Commander in Chief, that is a very disturbing twist, event coming from Moscow. Do the Russians have the ability to monitor, at some level, the communications taking place between key US Military officials? Yes. If there is one thing I know for sure, it’s the reality that Senior Officers and texting is a problem that seems unsolvable. Could the Russians be capturing just enough information to weaponize what they perceive is pattern of discontent? Absolutely. Now, if you take this theory and add to it the rumor I spoke of last week, you may begin to feel even more nervous with what the Russians are doing. In case you forgot, the “Rumor” was, supported by Mr. Lavrov’s interview on HARDtalk, the US military was against the level of strikes The Donald wanted to execute in Syria. The second part of that “rumor” was the idea of the US Military communicating with the Russian Military on what was going to take place. The assumption is, The Donald didn’t authorize that communication, but the US military leadership did so anyway. For the record, I don’t buy that part of the “Rumor”. What I do find more than plausible, is the idea the US President did authorize an “unofficial” communication to take place, one that his staff would disavowal if asked by the media.  The risk were too high not to take that action. If the US President’s target list was too much for his Commanders to support, then yes, that would have been a very….very….heated event. That part is most likely true.

Trap:

            Here is the trap I think the Russians executed. If the US President stands up and tells his nation, along with his staff, that the Russians were not informed of the strike, then planting the seed that was not what took place would only add fuel to the political fire already burring inside the US. The Donald, to hear the Democrats say it, is completely in bed with Mr. Putin. If he tells the nation he didn’t inform them and then the Russians hint that he did, the only result is more damage to current President of the US. If there is one game the Russian love to play and they play it very well, it’s the “I gotcha” game.

           All of this is a great deal of speculation, but these two recent interviews by Mr. Lavrov, have a common theme. The US Military is “working” with the Russian Military. If it was anyone but The Donald, nobody would think twice about that statement. Hell, if it was Obama, they would be nominating him for the Nobel Peace Prize again. We all see how that turned out. Just asked the people of Libya!

NORTH KOREA. DID EVERYONE FORGET ABOUT THE PENDING MEETING?

               Now, I’ll admit it’s hard to keep North Korea at the forefront of the conversation when the media has been pondering a potential conflict between the US and Russia. Add to that, the increasing likelihood of an Israeli / Iranian / Hezbollah conflict and yes, North Korea becomes a temporary sidebar issue.  That being said, it seems The Donald pushed the North Korean issue back to the front of the line yesterday. Secret meetings have been taking place? Secret meetings are always taking place. Is that news? It seems The Donald wants it to be. Good old Twitter. To hear the story, the groundwork is being hammered out prior to the meeting between the Little Fat Guy and The Donald. Typical? Yes, but nothing and I do mean nothing is “Typical” when it comes to The Donald. If the North Koreans are finding out anything, they are learning their meeting in the past with the US are nothing like the meeting the US expects this time around. Fooling the normal Presidents of the US like North Korea has done several times in the past will not be the formula for success, delay, this time around. This time around it’s The Donald they are dealing with and I would be willing to bet they understand there is a difference this time. So what’s the expectation this time. More specifically, what is the expectation of the North Koreans? Oh ya….add to that the expectation of the Dragon and the Tsar. If you leave those two parts of the equation out, you have completely lost the ability to predict any outcome.

Broken Promises:

               Tell The Donald you are going to do one thing with the intention of doing something completely different and you have made a dangerous mistake. If you set out to make the Tsar look like a fool and you succeed, you have just taking your life into your own hands. The same holds true for The Donald and the Little Fat Guy needs to really understand that point. If the US Administration is hinting the North “rally” wants to come to terms with the US and South Korea is saying they think it’s true, then sitting down to the table and suddenly having a list of demands would be nearly suicidal. This meeting is being build as the “Real Deal” this time. The North is going to end it’s nuclear program. Well, that is how the story is being sold. Forget the history of broken promises. It’s a new day in North Korea. The end is near! It’s what everyone wants right? Lets think about the Dragon and the Tsar before we start to pop the Champagne bottles.

The Dragon’s Wishes:

               If you have followed this blog, then you know my theory on Chinas Master Plan. The goal is to remove the argument for US forces being stationed in the area. A united Korea is the tool that allows that argument to be placed upon the US’s table. “Korea is united and safe. Why are you still there”? Can China spend the money to make this unification dream economically feasible? Easy. Can China get the Little Fat Guy to go along with the plan? Like I’ve said before, ether he will, or his replacement will. Beside, I think the guy secretly wants to party and play like he’s in the movie “Hangover”. The reduction of US forces in South Korea is something The Donald would agree to. It may not be an overnight complete pull out, but a phased approached based upon the actions of North and South Korea. As a matter of fact, he mentioned in when he was on the campaign trail and this seems to be a guy who likes to click off the checklist of things he talked about. Imagine that! So, don’t be shocked, like I know the Pentagon Generals will, if you hear the US is agreeing to a controlled withdrawal from the Korean Peninsula. If China even gets the hint that this is possible, and they probably already have, then there wil be a full court press to make this meeting truly historic.

The Tsar Get’s a Vote:

               Is there a spoiler in this scenario? What’s in it for the Russians to see the US and North Korea come to terms? Is it not the current objective of the Russians to make the US look like the benchmark of Evil in the world? Remember the statement, “ Genocide by Sanctions”? Why would the Russians be in favor of a reduction of US forces in South Korea? The Donald is not about to reduce the US military budget based upon a force reduction in South Korea. He just finished one of his campaign promises by drastically increasing that budget. Did he say it doesn’t make good economic sence to have that force in South Korea? Well, that was somewhat the message on the campaign trial, but that was all about others paying their fair share. The Tsar understands the reduction of US forces in South Korea would lead to a redeployment of those forces to areas of the world were the dangers to the US and it’s Allies are still present. Yep, a reduction of forces in South Korea can lead to an increase in Europe, Jordan, Saudi Arabia or few other locations the Russians would rather not see reinforced. Again, what’s in it for the Tsar? Like most large business transactions, the payouts are not made just to the primary parties. What does Russia get out of this deal? What is China willing to give in order to sweeten the deal for those that can make the transaction more difficult? You can bet this part of the process has been underway for some time now, perhaps even longer than the big announcement of the pending meeting.

Wrap Up:

               Okay, so this meeting is going to take place. It may very well be historical. It may even lead to a change in doctrine and that won’t go over well with the Military Industrial Complex in the West, although The Donald tossed enough money at them in the budget, they should be happy for a year or two. It appears The Donald has huge expectations for this event, but he’s a skilled Businessman. Talk is not going to be enough. I’m not even sure this meeting is really about the little Fat Guy. It could very well be the deal is being done with the Chinese and the meeting with the North Korean Movistar wannabe is for show. Lets see what the next few weeks of tweets tells us. That is where we will get the best indication of what The Donald expects. One thing you can rest assured of. If The Donald pulls this off, CNN and MSNBC will give him absolutely no credit. As a matter of fact, they will find a way to make it looks as if The Donald screwed the whole thing up.        

LAVROV ON BBC’S HARDtalk. “ LOOKS LIKE GENOCIDE BY SANCTIONS”!

               Mr. Lavrov agrees to be interviewed on HARDtalk? Why? The Russians know this is the BBC’s version of the US’s old Morton Downey Show. Not exactly Mr. Larov’s style of communicating. So, why? Why agree to sit with this loudmouth from London? Is it part of the Information Operation process as the Russians continue down the path towards some larger objective? Was it Mr. Lavrov being told to face the accusations against Russia, almost exclusively from the West? The answer is, both are correct. Yes the Russians seem to be rearranging the playing field the West is operating on, why wouldn’t they? So, let’s get past the question of why Mr. Lavrov came on this controversial show and let’s focus on the “message” he gave.

Genocide by Sanctions:

               Lavrov ended this rather heated interview with this comment. Any professional speaker knows his or her closing comment needs to be the strongest statement and Mr. Lavrov is a professional. If that doesn’t worry you, then you need to reevaluate your understanding of what is taking place here. “Genocide”! A world he would have carefully chosen. His admission that sanctions are hurting the Russian economy and the Russian people cannot be undervalued, but the use of the word “Genocide” has meaning far beyond economic impacts. I can assure you, as this interview was analyzed by the Intelligence community, that word struck a very alarming cord.  The West is practicing some level of Genocide on the Russian people? Is that truly the thought process in Moscow? Are the Russians that paranoid? It stuck me when he said this and it struck a lot of other people as well. It was perhaps the most alarming word ever to have been spoken by Russia’s Foreign Minister. What is going on here? How bad is this scenario between the West and Russia truly becoming? The Russian government, Putin, believes the West is practicing  a form of Genocide on the Russian people?  What other hints did Mr. Lavrov give?

Worse than a new Cold War:  

               “There are no safeguards”! Yes, the Cold War had “Safeguards”. Backchannel communications, proxy wars. The Cold War had escape valves to prevent open conflict between the Super Powers. Mr. Lavrov now states those Safeguards are gone. If there was a second statement in this interview that set the analyst back on their heels, it was this one. The stupid analyst, and there are thousands of them, will most likely blow this statement and interview off as Mr. Lavrov being agitated by the Host. Don’t you buy that for a second. This arrogant blowhard on the BBC is not capable of knocking Lavrov off his center. Yes, Lavrov had a few moments when he was inpatient with the Host, but he slapped him back into place with classic Russian style. I can just hear Lavrov’s mind clicking away. “Keep it up little man and you to will fall off your balcony”! Look, this statement about safeguards was thought out. The description of what they use to be and who has taken them away now was a very methodical approach. So, what was the real message with this statement? “Things are getting very dangerous”! To me, that is the implied message. Let’s hope the so called “experts” figure that one out. Okay, was there any glimmer of hope in Mr. Lavrov’s interview? Yes…..yes there was…………. But let’s hope it’s not overlooked.

Professional, Military to Military Communications:

               The Russian military and the US military continue to communicate, and Mr. Lavrov made that very clear. As I stated a few days ago, the strike was “communicated” to the Russians, you just must understand the US’s definition of “We”. What I did find odd about this segment of the show was my gut feeling Lavrov was implying something. If my theory of the Russians applying pressure at all corners of Western governance, was there a subliminal theme here of, “The US military can save the US from a true crisis………..a war”. There was just something about the way Lavrov broached this statement that set off my spider senses. Getting our house in order as Mr. Lavrov called it was an element of this message. So, the US government is a crisis in itself, but the US military is the true professional in the room? Interesting….very interesting. The art of destabilization is a skill craft the Russians are world leaders on. In a time of foolish political decisions, can the US military make decisions the civilian government doesn’t support? What happened with this “communication” that took place between the Russians and the US? Did the US military provide a greater picture of what was going to happen than the administration authorized? Is that the picture Lavrov is painting? Did that really happen, or is this just another tool in the Russian Information Operations weapon’s program? Yes, there were rumors in the US of the military not wanting to go as hard as The Donald wanted to, but that’s nothing new. Just look at Johnson and Vietnam. Och….bad example.  Tension between the US civilian government and the US military, is that the point of exploitation? If so, then we have our answer as to why Mr. Lavrov gave this interview.  No safeguards, a government practicing Genocide and a military in conflict with it’s own civilian leadership. Wow. This was a wild interview……maybe!

THE WEST ATTACKS ASSAD…………..WAS IT A LOAN?

               It happened. The much talked about “strike”. So, now what? Will the Syrian government change it ways? Will it give in in to the Rebels/ Terrorist / in their Civil War? Who came out looking tougher? Putin or The Donald? Was the “Fix” in? Did the US and Russia come to an agreement on what would take place? Who was the biggest loser in the event? Will there be second and third order effects? Will the age old, Law of Unintended Consequences kick in?  Good grief, I sound like the idiots on the major news networks, only I don’t wear makeup. One question is completely in the realm of reality. Did all of this huffing and puffing really make any difference? Yep. It did and not in a good way.

Trump 1…..the Tsar 0:

After this latest round of the Bluff Game Championships, this seems to be the score and it’ a very dangerous score in deed. The US states, “we didn’t communicate with the Russians on the targets”! Now, that may be true, but if Bill Clinton taught me anything, it’s the meaning of individual words! It’s also an artform in the Middle East. “We”. Just who is “we”? Backdoor channels has been the mainstay of nations in conflict for thousands of years. Is the world really to believe the US didn’t communicate with the Russians prior to this strike? “We” is the US, but does that create the loophole for, “them”? Did some other, trusted agent take the message to the Russians? Could the US afford not to take this path? Striking hard targets is the easy approach and it also creates a great visual for the media. If the Syrian military moved their air assets, to include their anti air assets because they felt that was the objective of the pending attack, then you can bet the US, French and British anticipated that very move. The only real issue became making sure Russians were not occupying the building that would be struck. Now, here is an interesting point. If the Russian were told we were going to strike targets that were fixed and that supported the Syrian chemical weapons program with the objective of making sure they were no where near them, then why didn’t the Assad regime take advantage of that? Did the Russians not tell them? Remember my theory of who is really behind these chemical attacks. So why didn’t Assad’s government place civilians inside these pending target buildings? It’s an age old trick in that part of the world. Do you remember the Baby milk factory the US bombed in Iraq? If you have a location you know is going to be struck, then place civilians in and around that site and let the media do the rest. But, this didn’t happen? Why not? Instead, the story was, the Syrian anti-air units shot down dozens of incoming missiles……. Ya…..right….at least the West better hope that’s not true. The good news is, the US and it’s Allies have the telemetry and BDA. So do the Russians and the Chinese.  The targets were struck and no Russians were killed and the Russians didn’t ingage their mighty SA400 system. Now, there is another interest side  note. It would be hard to sell this wonder weapon if you utilized it for all the world to see and it didn’t work! That would make the Russian military sales department’s job much more difficult. Answer? Don’t use it and then say, “man if we would have used it NOTHING would have made it through”. Okay, back on topic here. So the question has two parts. One. Did the US get the message to Moscow? Was a “deal” once again, struck? Two. If the Russians did know, did they inform the Syrians? Oh, by the way, whose Chemical Weapon’s Program was it anyway? Wait!!!!! What???? Chemical Weapons Program? How can that possibly be? Why, the Obama Administration utilized diplomacy to insure the world, through his hard work with the Russians, the Syrians no longer had chemical weapons or a chemical weapons program…………..right? Insert the art of Clintoneze here, what did each word mean in that historic agreement? What seems even more remarkable, is the fact the Russians, the same Russians who emphatically stated the Assad had no chemical weapons program only sustained limited damage to the program? What program? They are not supposed to have a “program”! Even worse, the Assad regime comes out and states their program will continue. Thank you Mr. Redline Obama. You sure did kick that can down the road.

Okay, in the end, the guy who comes out looking like the one who backed down is Putin and that is not a stance Mr. Putin takes lightly. Did he agree to this outcome? I would find that hard to believe and that adds credence to the US’s statement that no preattack targeting discussions took place. Or…………or was this a typical Mafia Loan? “Here is what you want, I will come ask for what I want later”! You can rest assured of one thing. The effects of this event are far from over. Yes, CNN and MSNBC may be back on the Hooker trail, but the wheels are turning in Moscow and that loan is going to be paid by someone.

RUSSIA AND THE US AT THE BRINK OF WAR? HERE IS ONE WAY OUT. 

               Two days ago, I couldn’t understand why the Russians came off of their initial strategy. For well over a month, the story from Moscow was, “The Terrorist / Rebels / were going to conduct a chemical attack in order to frame the poor Eye Doctor. Then, when the attack happens, the response from Moscow was, “ it didn’t happen…..fake news….ect……ect. Wait…what….. why didn’t they stick to the script? Why didn’t they come out as say, “ The Terrorist / Rebels/ did it”? Then, it’s agreed that some level of a detection team will be sent in to verify if the event really did take place. How long does that take? That is yet to be determined and that is a whole other story. But………….but……… now it seems the new stance by Moscow is, “ The US did it”! Yep, that’s right, the US staged the attack. Now, that’s more like it. That’s more in line with the initial theme that had been developed because we all know the Terrorist / Rebels are supported by the US, at least if you hear the Russians, Iranians and the Syrian government tell the story. Remember, one man’s Terrorist is another man’s Freedom fighter. So, Moscow is back on message? Well, it looks that way, but what does that mean? When this detection team shows up and confirms the use of agents in some type of attack, then what? People talk about the inconsistencies of The Donald, but going from it didn’t happen to the US did it, well that’s about has flip floppy as one can get. If all of this is not confusing enough, let me go back to the question nobody in the West / US / seems to be paying much attention to? Why? Why would Assad conduct a chemical attack now when everyone says he is winning the Civil War in Syria?

The Arrogance of power:

               My last post addressed the issue of why and why now, but from a different perspective. My point was simple. Did the Persians manipulate Assad without the Tsar’s blessing?  Was Russia really part of this event? My assumption was, at that time, no……………..no they were not. Would it have been the fist time the Iranians provoked some action with the real intent of showing Moscow they will not control the future of Syria? Are the Iranians willing to let Moscow set the future of the one nation that impacts Iran’s plans the most? Does anyone truly believe the love affair between the Persians and the Russians?  Could the Iranians convince, force, Assad into taking such an action without getting the approving grin from the Tsar? At the end of the day, who does Assad really listen to? Better yet, who is really running the country, Assad or his Brother? Can deal be struck with the Iranians  and Assad not know of them? In the end, we must go back to the core issue? Why, followed by why now?  The area where the attack took place was almost under complete control by the Syrian government, or was it? “We have achieved a great victory”. Those words are often followed by a hard slap of reality. Did Assad’s forces, who may or may not take orders from him, decide they needed to resort to a tactic that strikes fear into the hearts of everyone in the area? It’s not like the concept of chemical weapons is new to the Civil War in Syria. Just how arrogant is the Brother of Assad? Short answer, very. Maher, you know the guy intelligence said was dead in 2012. It amazes me how many dead people come back to life after intelligence reports. Is Maher dancing with the Iranians or the Russians……..or both? Who really is the military leader of Syria? I bet the Russians and the Iranians know, they just wont tell Western Intelligence Agencies. Okay, could that be it? Could the arrogance of power be so strong that someone inside of Syria would attempt to make Putin look like a fool? Could the Iranians push the West/ US / into a potential confrontation with the desired outcome of Syria being abandoned by all sides? Sound crazy? Tell me what part of this whole story doesn’t sound crazy? Part of the world is talking about war between the US and Russia. Is that not crazy? Would The Donald and Putin go to war over Assad? Here is another one for you. Why did the Old Man from Tehran send his most senior recriminative to Syria, into the very area this issue is all about? Is Iran showing unity to the “Alliance”, or is the Old Man stirring the pot?  If someone is playing games and the purpose of that game is to push the US and Russia into a conflict, they need to be very….very….careful. If what I am saying is even close be being possible, then the only people who should be running for the bomb shelter live in Tehran! Oh, by the way, it appears that CNN and MSNBC are more concerned about Hookers then they are about a possible conflict between the US and Russia.

Dear Mr. Putin;

               Perhaps a few Syrian military leaders and a few IRGC “Advisors” need to sleep with the fishes to make this crisis go away? And if my theory is incorrect? So what! It’s still a possible escape valve.

TRUMP TO PUTIN. ‘ IF THIS IS A GAME OF BLUFF……. LET’S SEE WHO BLINKS’!

               First off, let me apologize for the caption attached to the picture I placed on this post, but if I were believe some of the statements I’ve read this morning made by the “experts”, then yep…..Homer may be correct! Is it time to get to your local bomb shelter? Well, even if it was, they haven’t been stocked or maintained for years. Is it time to start stocking up on ammo and dry food….time to get out the Zombie Apocalypse kit? I hope not. Could two headstrong, unbalanced world leaders stumble into a conflict? Well, that is the million dollar question everyone should be asking today. Okay, is this bad? Yes. Is this worse than anything else that has happened in the past fifty years, Cuba? It may be close. Bottomline, do I think the US and the Russians are about to have more than a proxy fight in the Middle East? No! No I do not. Now, having said that, let’s take a look at a few issues that could push this issue ether way.

The Bluff Game:

               It’s a given the Russians compiled a very……very………complex phycological profile of The Donald. They do for any potential world leader. The US and just about every other modern nation does the same thing. Should the Russians have realized The Donald loves to play the Bluff Game? Absolutely. If you want a very current example of his game style you need look no further than the so called Trade War with China. Yes. Yes, the Russians should have anticipated The Donald’s approach. So why did they let it get this far? Why push a guy you know is more than willing to take the game to the limits? Ether Putin didn’t accept the profile his subornments presented to him or he doesn’t care! I would be far more worried about the second option. The reality is, as of today, the Bluff Game is in full swing and where it’s going is based upon the mindset of two very complex, unpredictable men who both have a strong tendency to not listen to their staffs.

We killed Russians:

               Think about Putin. Think about the fact that just a few weeks ago, his staff came to him and informed him the US had killed scores of Russians………Little Green Men mind you, but still “Russians”. When that event happened, I asked the question, “how does this impact the Tsar”? The US upped the game that day and most of us who know how this game is played knew that from the second it started. Then, the IDF lost a aircraft. The IDF was told they could no longer fly over Syria with impunity. That message was not only for the IDF. It was a clear signal, the next phase of the blame game. That signal was to the West / US.

               Hezbollah, who is feeling more embolden with each passing day begins to speak about the price Israel will pay for the events along it’s border…………..the protesters shot…..so called “protestors”. Now mind you, this always makes me tilt my head sideways given the fact Hezbollah is on the other side of a religious war in the region. Does Hezbollah care about Palestinians? No…………Hell no! T-4. An operational base that Iranians  and Russians support Assad from. It’s also a base where Iran supports Hezbollah from. So, what happened next? Yep. The next phase of the Bluff Game! The SA 400 system. It can shoot down anything from anywhere at anytime. It will never miss. It makes all the world’s air forces tremble with fear! Ya….right…..that is why the IDF flew right through it! “ But we got five of the eight missiles fired at T-4”! Well, tell that to the dead………..the Iranian dead by the way and I posted  a few days ago what I still think that was all about. Yes, the Bluff Game continues.

Business as Usual:

               Business as usual right? The West / US / decides to strike, but the back-channel communications allows the Russians to clear their assets out of the area before the missiles show up. That has been the game and that was the game the last time The Donald ordered an attack on Syrian air assets. Oh, but wait, we are playing the Bluff Game now and that means the rules have changed. Now the Russians are openly saying they will shoot down the missiles….well….some of them. Does that mean they didn’t move away from the Assad targets? Are they really going to fire upon US aircraft and US assets? Missiles are much easier to shoot at by the way. There is no citizen in them. But wait. The Bluff Game may be kicking in yet again. The Russian Ambassador to Lebanon stated the sites the missiles came from could be attacked. What? Strike the airfields in Israel, Jordan, Italy, Kuwait, Qatar and perhaps a few other locations? Is the latest Russian message?

Put UP or Shut Up:

               Here is the problem with the Bluff Game. In the end, it comes down to one side walking away and that is typically based on the other side stating, “Put up or shut up”, or a fight breaks out.  Who going to say it? Is it Putin or The Donald that puts his fist up and says those magical words? Do we have a fight or does someone back down? If ever there were two personalities that have no signs of backing down, it’s The Donald and Putin. Is there a level of the Bluff Game left yet? Does something have to happen before the final words are spoken? A very well telegraphed strike is coming. What is hit are most likely the things that cannot move. If we witness air suppression of anti air assets taking place, then we know the strike is right behind it. The SA 400 is the super weapon. Well, I think that might be put to the test! No nation, and I mean no nation can executed air suppression like the US. Tell the US Air Force to strike the Syrian air defense units and those manning them have only a short time to live. Hint, we already took them out once, but on a limited scale. A single strike. The Bluff Game requires this phase to be bigger! Hold on folks. Don’t head for the bunkers just yet, but have a plan. Always have a plan.

ANOTHER CHEMICAL ATTACK AND ANOTHER ATTACK ON T4? IS THIS ONE DIFFERENT?

               The IDF struck T4….again! Assad utilized chemical weapons…. again! Russia says the whole thing didn’t happen. The Donald says there is going to be Hell to pay. The UN….well the UN did what they always do………………talk………………talk………..and then hold another meeting to talk. So, what happened doesn’t seem to be the issue, but the real question is again not stated. Why? Why did the chemical attack take place?

What happened to the message?

 Is the use of chemical weapons becoming common place? Did the Tsar approve the attack? Would Assad use such weapons without Russian approval? Could the Iranians have talked Assad into such an act behind the back of the Tsar? Could the Tsar afford to come out against the act even if the Iranians pulled this one off? Did anyone notice the change in the stance of the Russians? For the last few weeks, the message has been, “The Anti Syrian forces were preparing to launch a chemical attack with the intent of the Syrian government being held responsible. Why was this line not continued after this latest attack? Why was the response, “we see no evidence of chemical weapons”? Why didn’t the Russians blame the “Rebels / Terrorist”? They spent weeks building this image and then when the attack takes place, the Russians didn’t pull the trigger on the propaganda platform they spent so much time developing. What happened? The Russians seem upset more than usual. If they knew the attack was coming, and they should have, then why was the response off message? Perhaps someone should look to Tehran?

T4:  

               Just how unannounced was this latest attack on T4? Does anyone really think the Russian assets in theater could not detect the aircraft launch from Israel….. the release of subsonic weapons diving down to map of the Earth level? Just who did the Russians warn of the inbound attack? The only stated casualties seem to be Iranian. Is there a reason? If Iranian assets scheduled to go to Hezbollah were struck once again, did the Russians just let it happen? Yes, the story goes five of the eight weapons were intercepted by Syrian Air Defense, but that is to be expected. Every nation has always inflated their response to an attack. The fact of the matter is, the Russians ether knew the attack was inbound or they did not. If they did and Iranians died, is that a message in itself? If they didn’t, boy oh boy, the vulnerability of their defensive systems better keep them up at night.

The Worst Case Scenario :

               I would truly hope this next statement is not true, but in the world of analysis, all possibilities, that are logical, must be reviewed. The Tsar did know the attack was going to take place. The Tsar did approve of the attack. The Tsar no longer sees the utilization of chemical weapons as a “Bridge too Far”. The Russians warned the Israelis today. In fact, the warning may have been perceived more along the lines of a threat. Last month they lost F16. That was a message. Israel knows all too well Russia has assets on T4. If the waring was given with the loss of the IDF aircraft, then how does Moscow read the message the IDF sent with the strike on T4? How does Moscow interpret the statement / tweet / from The Donald? Yes the phone calls are taking place. Yes there is far more to this story than the press and others know about. Where is this going? In and out. That was The Donald’s message while Putin was trying to take the world stage over the Syrian issue. “We are leaving Syria…not wait…. We are staying” … and the Tsar looked like a fool! Did that set the stage for the next round of “I dare you”? Seldom are events between adversaries not related. Is there a link here? As my friend always says, “ To understand the first move…..you have to wait for the second”! We are way past the second move. The slippery path is primed. If the US strikes Syrian targets and I fully except it will happen………..perhaps by the time I post this, then the reaction from Moscow will be the topic of all the Talking Heads. They better get their makeup on. I bet the networks will be calling them in the next 24 hrs.