PUTIN AND STONE. THE FINAL EPISODE.

Finally had a chance today to watch the part four of the Oliver Stone, Putin interviews. I’m not sure why Stone arranged the entire production in a way that mixed interviews from 2105 with interviews from 2016 and 17. It may have been along topic lines and I just didn’t pay attention to the format. Having said that, it was interesting to me to see the body language of Putin towards Stone in 2015, compared to their meetings in 17. It seemed over time, the approach didn’t really differ as much as it did over topic. When the issue of the Russian accusation of interference in the 2016 US elections came up, Mr. Putin was completely prepared to give a very convincing opinion from the Russian side of the fence. His mannerisms were very well balanced by his position on the topic.  For Stone, the issue was clear cut, his preferred candidate, Hillary, was defeated and the Russians had something to do with it.  The Russians had done their homework in preparation for this phase of the program. They knew Stone was far more in Clinton’s camp than in Trumps. It was almost as if Stone was looking for answers as to why his candidate was beaten with the help of Mr. Putin. Putin’s response was something that had to cut right to the heart of the whole topic. What the Hackers had exposed was just how corrupt the US political process was! Was that an attempt to favor Trump over Clinton? Was that Putin’s way of saying, “Don’t blame us for someone exposing what is wrong in the US”? As a matter of fact, at one point, that is exactly the point Mr. Putin made! Brilliant!

The Tsar. Ruthless, cunning, willing to bend the rules. Obsessed with power. Willing to do whatever it takes to achieve his goals. Is that definition truly any different than Trump, Clinton, Obama, Kennedy, Johnson, ect….ect…ect? Is the very nature of government the quest for power? Gaining power. Keeping power. Preventing others from power? One man’s Terrorist is another man’s Revolutionary, not true but often said. What truly is the difference between Putin and Joe Biden or Hillary or Donald? Is there truly a moral barrier that separates them all? If there is, whose perception sets the standard? When Putin gave his opinion as to why the Russians continue to be blamed for interfering in the 2016 election, something Stone believes, his point struck home with me. It happen to be an opinion I’ve contemplated on my own. The whole issue is nothing more than an attempt to delegitimize Trump’s Presidency. Out of the question? Really? So, US politics is not capable of such an act?

2000 and 2012:

Did the US interfere with the elections in 2012? The answer Stone recived surprised him. 2000 and 2012! Homework was done by the Stone team. Show the US President and Vice President openly stating the US would retaliate and then tying those statements into an attack that impacted the Russian banking system was a great segment of this interview. Did the Russians bring that up for Stone to investigate or did Stone come up with that part on his own? The message was clear. The US openly interfered in Russian politics and yet the US political machine was shocked by what took place in 2016. Just how silly does the US look in the eyes of the rest of the world? Are the Democrats in the US so upset their person lost that they are willing to continue to make the US look like fools to the rest of the world? Yep. I think they are that upset.  This whole segment on actions by the US vs the Russians and actions by the Russians against the US was very well done and I don’t like giving someone like Stone kudos. Putin’s ability to show his viewpoint not only on the US elections, but on cyber activities by the US was very well played. He was ready for this part of the interview and I cannot imagine he was not pleased with the outcome. So much so that at the end of the interview, Putin told stone he was going to get in trouble for making this four part program. Interesting.

Russians Don’t Scare Easy:

Does Stone really understand the Russian people? No! He may have done his homework on Russian history, but he failed to understand the culture that lives within the Russian Nation. At one point in the interview, Stone made the comment the Russian people should be scared of where the whole issue of Cyber warfare may lead. Mr. Putin’s answer was quick and blunt. “The Russian people don’t scare”! Stone laughed and then said, “Sure”! Why would the Tsar make that statement so quickly? Why would that be his response to what Stone said? Why did that response surprise Stone? Because he doesn’t understand the Russian mindset? Because he doesn’t understand the Tsar’s vision of what Russia truly is; a thousand year old country that can endure anything? Stone may have made this documentary, but Putin controlled its outcome.

So why did he do it?

What made Putin spend the amount of time he did on this event? Why did he put up with Stone’s ego trip? Was he worried over what Stone was trying to achieve? Did he think Stone was simply manipulating him for his own bragging rights back in the US? What made putting up with someone like Oliver Stone worth it to the Tsar? More importantly, did he achieve it?

Here is my take and I have followed Mr. Putin’s actions for years. When he gets up in the morning, he doesn’t check on his personal bank account. He doesn’t call his Broker and get an update on his financial wealth. He doesn’t attend dedications to national parks developed in his name. Yes, he has his ego trips, but his drive is not his ego. His drive, his commitment is Russia. Russia must achieve greatness. Russia must be viewed as a world leader that cannot be taken lightly. Russia must be respected by those who have expended so much energy and blood to prevent these goals from being achieved. Russia is not out to control the world, but the Russian people come first. Yes. Putin is a Nationalist! One of the most skilled political leaders to ever have worn the title of “ Nationalist”! This three year dance with Stone had one objective. Move the Russian ball forward. Vladimir Putin is driven! Vladimir Putin is completely committed to his vision of Russia. Everyone in this world who must deal with him needs to understand this. He is not Obama. He is not Clinton. He is not Trump. He is a man the world can learn to work with or be prepared to challenge his vision. Obama and Clinton chose to challenge him. The movement behind that challenge transcends US politics. Putin will not compromise his vision. He will not accept a lesser than Russia. Is the rest of the world as committed as he is? Is the rest of the world willing to see what consequences may come?  I’ve said it for over ten years now. The Tsar is the most dynamic leader in the world. Learning to live and work with him is a not just a challenge, it’s a responsibility. What does the Post Putin Russia look like? Don’t bring that topic up where he can hear it! 

I wonder how this show was viewed in the land of the Dragon? 

OLIVER STONE AND PUTIN. ROUND TWO:

First off, this is not really round two, but round two and three. As I was watching the second episode of Stone’s Bromance with the Tsar, I noticed the third part was available for viewing. So, bonus!

One thing did change, it seems Stone really had no clear pattern of topics he intended on covering. Now, it is highly probable the rhythm of every topic was set by Mr. Putin, but Stone did a great job of making it look as if he was completely scattered brained from the start. Time and time again, it looked as if Oliver was just giddy getting to be in the same room with the Tsar. For the Tsar’s part, episode two and three looked the same as episode one. That grin. That look of, “ah yes….my little Puppet is here again. Let me continue my plan”!

Once again, the emotion:

Missile Defense! A topic Mr. Putin became much more animated over. A topic that his opinion of is cast in….well……Stone!  Once again, his approach was very well scripted. His point? Well, his point struck a never with Stone and honestly, it may strike a nerve with many who watched the interviews. Here was Putin’s approach. If the excuse for the US Missile Defense concept is based upon a nuclear capable Iran, the argument the US used the most, then the fact the Iranians signed a “deal” with the major players on the topic should result in the Missile Defense System no longer being necessary! Yet, it continues and that is the sore spot for Putin. Why? Why should it continue, unless, it’s just another example of the West / US / saying one thing, but doing another. Deceit. That is how the Tsar sees the topic and that is what he believes regardless of how the US responds. Most of us realize the response by the US and it’s Allies is just as scripted. “ We can’t trust the Iranians and so we must continue the development of the program”! An answer Putin fully anticipated and does nothing more than reinforce his fear of deceit! It’s simple to see, the issue of Missile Defense is a major topic for Mr. Putin and it’s one the US is doing a very poor job of communicating on. Oh, by the way. What is the real reason the US is against Mr. Putin’s concept of a “joint program”? If the US answers this question as poorly as it did the issue of Iran, then who knows how the Tsar will interpret the excuse.

Short Note….Hillary:

Body language. A form of expression even someone like Mr. Putin cannot avoid. Simple statement here. He really…really….doesn’t like her. I’ve addressed this issue in the past, but Putin see Hillary as a Puppet of Soros and that makes her one of the top Enemies of the Russians……..period!

Doctor Strange Love:

I don’t know if Stone had a clue how unusual it was to get Putin to sit to watch that particular movie. Did he have any idea of where that event might take his interview with the Tsar? My bet is he didn’t. My bet is he was trying to show just how dangerous the War loving Americans might be to the Russians. Stone, is not and never will be a big supporter of the US, but he does love to make his money! Anyway, back to the issue of Putin watching Doctor Strange Love. By the way. If you have not watched the movie and you know anything about the dangers of the Cold War and Nuclear War, then watch the movie. My impression was, Putin watched the entire movie with the group. He stated he had never heard of the movie and that was interesting in itself.

Humor. The “Humor” in that movie did not translate to the Russian and that is not surprising. What was Putin thinking when he sat and watched? “Why did Stone want me to watch this? Why did the Americans make this movie? Why did they think the topic of nuclear war could possibly be funny? Why did the US government allow a movie to be made that made fun of American Leadership”? Great questions, if Putin actually asked them of himself. What in the world was Stone thinking?

When they were finished, the reaction of Putin was something that stopped me in mid thought! I’m not positive of his exact words and I would have to go back to watch it again, but one statement absolutely stunned me! His first comment was telling. To paraphrase Putin, The topic of doomsday devices is a dangerous topic. Now, I’m not sure of his exact words, but the point was clear. Doomsday events are dangerous! Why? Why did he interpret this so called comedy this way? What made him grab onto the doomsday device part of this story? I’m here to tell you, I may be tea leaf reading, but that sent a chill down my spine. The Soviet Dead Hand System! Rumor upon rumor has been spread about this concept. If you don’t know what it was or as some claim, “is”, then I will give you a simplistic review. Dead Hand or “ Perimetr” was and may be is the Doomsday device of  the Russians. If attacked their ability to retaliate is automatic. Sound crazy? Just how crazy do you think everyone was in the Cold War? Just how crazy do you believe everyone involved still is? Paranoia in Russia. Did it ever really go away? Why? Why would it? Trust? What trust? A crazy movie that Oliver Stone was convinced would make the Russian leader laugh. Instead, his first response was one so telling that many may have missed Putin’s point. Simply put, Doctor Strange Love can happen and happen much easier than you think! Wow! If I’m right, then what a message, warning, Oliver Stone bumped into.

One last, but important comment about Doctor Strange Love and it’s a point to make. At the end of the movie, Stone hands Putin a copy of the movie. As Putin is walking into an office, he open the CD case and notices the case to be empty! He turns to the camera and says, “Typical American gift”! Everyone laughs! Now. Just think about that for a few minutes.

The Hockey Player:

Ego? Oh ya. Had to have some of the ego sliced into the program? Who’s it for? Is it for the Western Audience? Is if for the Russian audience? Was it for Putin’s own enjoyment? Yes to all three. Was it, in the eyes of the West, somewhat corny? Oh ya, just watch the man skate and it tells you everything you need to know. Just think if one of the players would have checked him into the glass…..hard? More hair falling out at practice for some poor fool within the week! All in all, not a huge part of this program, but you have to admit, Putin’s desire to be seen as a tough guy is never-ending.

Driving himself:

Putin driving himself! Judging from the scenery as they were driving down the road, the traffic was not closed around them. If you have ever been involved in moving a world leader on a public road, you know how incredible this sounds. Imagen the US President driving him or herself. Imagen that taking place on an open public road. Impossible. Unimaginable and completely out of the question, regardless if the President demanded he or she be allowed to do so. Once again, it’s Putin’s way of saying, “I’m my own man and I decide what goes on around me”. What really struck me was the impression that doing such a thing was not unusual for him. So, did he really stage it or did he just decide to do something he does often? Any way you look at it, the event is something that is way….way out of the norm. But, then again, we are talking about Mr. Putin!  

Music in the Background:

Who decided on the background music when the topic of NATO came up? Was it the theatrics of Stone? Was it something the Russian’s asked for? My bet is Stone is the answer. Would Putin really give a hoot one way or another on the topic of background music? Nope! Dark and ominous, that was the tone Stone set on the topic of NATO. Danger! Subliminal messaging? You bet. A tactic guys like Stone have used for years, along with just about every government that has ever manipulated media!    

Spontaneous when trying to be funny:

Over the years, Mr. Putin has held numerous interviews, but this is the first one I’ve seen where has been in his own environment, working his way around meetings with Stone.  As planned as his topics seem to be, it was interesting to see Putin, at times, let us have a real peak into his more spontaneous side. Humor, it usually showed up when he was attempting to inject his brand of humor! Making quick, witty comments or a hint of a silly look, that was when it seemed like Mr. Putin was letting down his guard. Not much to work with, but never the less, a brief window into the real Putin. His laugh immediately after his comment about, “The typical American gift”, that is my best example. It’s not often you can catch a glimpse of the Tsar out of character and you have to know when to look.

Snowden the “Hero”:

Driving himself and talking about Snowden that was a great opportunity to catch another indication of the real Putin. Did he know Stone was going to bring up the conversation? Yes. Did he know it would take place while he was driving? Probably. Did he not have his staff in the car with him when he addressed the issue of Snowden? Interesting! A “Hero”. A man who stood up for the rights of the people an overzealous government was spying on? Now, if that’s not a prime example of the Pot calling the Kettle Black, I don’t know what is! Does Mr. Putin really view Snowden as a Hero? No! He is what he has been from the very beginning, an opportunity to poke the US in the eye. The part of the story that was even more interesting than hearing what you might think is Putin’s personal opinion of Snowden was the explanation of how he got to Russia. Again, the real Putin peaked through the conversation. The smirk. That classic Putin look just at that point in the conversation when Stone asked how Snowden got into Russia when the US was pushing to get their hands on him. ‘We had nothing to do with getting him here’! Good grief, not even the Bromance Stone seemed to swallow that one and the smirk didn’t help!

Episode 3

The Ukraine. A topic you had to have known Putin was going to be prepared to address. Once again the theme held true. Betrayal. Betrayal on the part of the US and what Putin calls, “Partners”. Did the US really have its hands, along with other EU members, in the crisis that became the Ukrainian crisis? Yes. Was the crisis supported by the US and EU members? Yes. Is the issue of the Ukraine the center point of Putin’s anger over what has been taking place in Europe since the collapse of the Soviet Union? Yes.  The manipulation of the events in that nation have been more damaging to US / Russian relations than just about anyone in the US realizes. I’ve said this before and I will say it again and again. The Ukrainian crisis is a topic Putin is willing to go to war over. The issue is, he may not allow it to become a war on Russian land, but just about anywhere else is under threat. The Middle East? That’s just one option the Tsar has taken. Stone painted the picture just the way Putin needed him to do. The US and the EU are responsible for what is taking place in the Ukraine. The Russians were betrayed once again. Not a hard message to sell, but one the Russian President hammered home none the less. When the discussion of the Ukraine was over, what was worthy of noticing was Putin’s attempt to show how patient he remains.  Its clear his desire was to show that one, the US was reasonable for what had taken place in the Ukraine and two, he is still willing to get the “partnership” concept back on track. Is that truly his end state? Keeping his dream of Russia’s future, that is the goal of the Tsar.

Three episodes and the theme continues. Russia has been, once again, betrayed by the West / Europe. Russia is simply wanting to be a “Partner”. How much of this theme is disingenuous? What does the Tsar truly want from those he labels as “Partners”? Let’s see what the final product is of this Stone Bromance.  

OLIVER STONE AND MR. PUTIN.

Let me start by stating I am not a fan of Oliver Stone. To me, he’s just another example of a person who drags his country through the mud, but loves the money he makes by doing so. Besides being in love with his money, when you get right down to it, he’s a nut case! But, enough about Oliver Stone. Let’s talk about what is really important here. The Tsar. By the way, I loved the way Putin used his patent pended smirk when the question of him being the new Tsar came up.

Why?

Now, many may watch this series of interviews and ask themselves, “Why”? Why did Mr. Putin agree to being interviewed over a two year period by a US film director? Some of us know why and are not surprised at all. In reality, the “why” question is far more complicated than even Mr. Stone can comprehend.

What?

If you really want to know “why” Putin allowed this interview series, you have to ask, “What”? What is the Tsar looking to gain from it? It’s not about his ego and having someone like Stone doing a documentary on him. Putin is too driven to let his own ego get in the way. Yes, he is vain, but becoming a movie star is not on his bucket list. What? What does the Tsar see as the end state of this event with Mr. Stone? Does he get to tell the Russian viewpoint on topics he knows have been slanted towards the West? Probably, at least that is a part of his logic. Does he get the opportunity to shape perceptions? Absolutely and by the way, he’s very good at shaping perceptions. The fact of the matter is, only Putin really knows his ultimate goal of agreeing to these interviews. He may discuss them with his staff, but even then, some of his real, inner thoughts are kept to himself. Never forget, he is a deep thinker and a man who regulates what he says to everyone….everyone!

Preparation!

From the time Oliver Stone pitched the concept of interviewing the Russian President, until the time the first interview took place the gears were turning in Moscow on how to manipulate the event. Once a sound game plan was drafted and the interview format was agreed to, you can bet the detailed plan of what needed to be achieved was firmly placed on Putin’s staff. Notice the number of people in the room during certain parts of the interview.  Where would they be held? How long will they last? Who will be in the room? What questions will be asked? All of these conditions were set by the Putin Team. As for Mr. Stone, he was probably so drunk on just getting Putin to agree that he would have said yes to any condition. A fact not lost on Putin’s planning development. So, in the end, this was going to be a superbly executed stage for Putin to tell a story in just the fashion he had developed. He played Stone’s Bromance with him like a pimp! Just thought I would slide that in thereJ

Subconscious clues?

Now, I’ve watched the Tsar work the world Chessboard for years and so, when I sat down for episode one of Stone’s documentary, if it is that, I was more interested in how scripted Mr. Putin would be. The level of preparation was obvious and the ability to control body language and inflection is a skill craft Putin holds better than any other world leader. Having said that, I did notice a few very interesting “ticks” on particular topics. It’s interesting to see how hard people attempt to not show change when certain topics come up. One of the skill crafts of being a very good interrogator is to be able to observe when someone changes their character during an interview. Those that are good at manipulating this art are masters of getting people uncomfortable in their skin. By the way, Oliver Stone is NOT one of these kinds of people.

NATO:

I’ve said it for years and I will continue to say it. The expansion of NATO is a key element in Putin’s drive to defend Russia. His explanations as to how the West lied to the Russian leadership at the time was an example of him not just talking with Stone, but of him lecturing Stone! He more or less said, Russian leadership at the time was a team of fools and drunks. Notice the clips about Yeltsin and the film even talking about him being a drunk. Does anyone think the clips used for this show were not approved by Moscow? NATO! That was the topic that allowed me to see a difference in a man who has been trained not to show “difference” in an interview. How deep must this anger over the expansion of NATO be that a Master of expression such as Putin cannot keep from changing his demeanor?

CHILDHOOD:

When Stone mentioned the history of his parents, Putin’s response was yet another clue. Correcting Stone on what his Mother did and didn’t do was interesting. Making the statement about being allowed to run the streets too much caught my attention as well. A very controlled man has an impression that he was allowed to be too uncontrolled as a young boy? Interesting! The way he posed the statement about the streets made me believe that part of his life influenced him in a lasting way. How? That is the real question.

 CHECHENIA:

The wars in Chechenia? What made Stone bring this up? It’s clear when the list of topics were reviewed with Putin’s team, the topic of Chechenia was brought up, but by witch side? Did Putin’s team add Chechenia to the topic list? Did Stone? Did Stone’s team know the events in Chechenia was a point of interest to Putin? Regardless of how the topic was place on the list, it was clear Chechenia, in the eyes of Putin, another example of betrayal by the West. If you have any doubt President Putin blames the West for the two conflicts in Chechenia, to include the massacre at the school, then you are a fool!  Putin placed the blame Russia’s unrest squarely on the shoulders of the West, more specifically, the US. Take heed here! Do not underestimate the deep seated anger Putin has over the issue of the West interfering in Russia. He understands the complex world or rivalries on a global scale. He also understands the difference between calling someone a rival and labeling someone an adversary.  In my opinion, the jump has been made. Now, ask yourself. After Putin’s depiction of what took place in Chechenia and what is taking place with NATO, is there any doubt he would be willing to attempt to influence events in the US or the West in general? Why do you think he is so deeply involved in the Middle East? Why do you think he has manipulated the Middle East into a process of refugees flowing into a now destabilized Europe? His depiction of Chechenia was key. The question becomes, did he mean to tip his hand? Was he in some way attempting to show the US / West / people, not their governments, why Russia is angry?

THE BIG PICTURE:

The Russian President / Tsar / agreed to this series of interviews for a reason. When the last episode is over and the team sits back in Moscow to review the impact it had on the US and others, what will be the answer? Was it worth it? Did they achieve what they desired, or did they just let this idiot from movie land waste their time? I’ll be watching the next three parts, I think there are three more, to see what other clues…..messages the Tsar gives away.

Side note:  If you watched the first episode, did you notice all of Stone’s team in the room? They are ether afraid of Stone or they are worried about the process in general. Stone’s a head case, but his staff looked like they were sitting in the room with Charles Manson! Question is, who is their Charles Manson….Stone or the Tsar?

NAVALNY AND SOROS. TWO PEOPLE PUTIN WOULD LOVE TO SEE GO AWAY.

Mr Navalny and Mr. Soros both have a common interest. They both dislike Mr. Putin. Why? Well, both have their reasons and similarity is not a common thread. Mr. Navally believes that the “Tsar” is sucking the life blood out of Russia. Mr. Soros believes the world should have no borders and a common social order for all. Back when I was a kid, they would have called both of these men, “Communist”. The problem is, back then, everyone who didn’t live in the US was a potential Communist. There was a Communist behind every tree and all you had to do was ask someone in the US South and they would tell you so. So, Mr. Navalny and Mr. Soros are yet another example of, “the enemy of my enemy is my friend”. Does that mean the two of them have some level of relationship? Does Soros bankroll Navalny’s movements? Is that a crazy idea? If you were to walk into the room where Mr. Putin was working and tell him you think there might be some connection between the two, my guess is he would listen to every word you spoke. Could it be? Could Mr. Soros be sporting the Navalny movement in Russia? If not, could someone convince him to do so? Let’s take a look at the history of Mr Soros and you can come to your own conclusion.

Who is the largest contributor to the Progressive, Liberal movement in the US? Who is the financial backer of discontent in several Eastern European nations? Who had the US White House in his pocket for the past eight years? Who did everything in his power to get Hilary Clinton elected? Who is spending untold millions to disrupt the current US President? Whose financial transactions nearly destroyed the Russian economic program in the 90s? Finally, who dreams of taking down Mr. Putin? Yep, Mr. Soros!

Scenario:

 A Navalny “Associate” is sent to visit with a member of the Soros team.  In that meeting, both sides voice their “vision” of what a post Putin Russia should look like, along with a Post Putin Eastern Europe. Navalny’s team has one thing to offer the Soros team; a superb Social Media Machine. A process that could be emulated in Hungry as well as the rest of the Eastern European nations Soros is meddling in.  Mutual support items are identified and follow on meetings are agreed to. Sound farfetched? Well, if so, then you really don’t know how the world of powerful people works.

Putin’s viewpoint:

As I stated earlier, if Mr. Putin doesn’t already think there could be a link between those who are willing to support Mr. Navalny and Mr Soros, getting him to think about it would be relatively simple. You see, in Mr. Putin’s eyes, both Navalny and Soros have the same goal. They both want to destroy the vision Mr. Putin has for Russia. Both men see the world differently than him and both men have done the Tsar harm already. By the way, doing “harm” to Mr. Putin, when you are not hiding behind the wall of being a nation state leader, well, that is a formula the undertaker would appreciate….. It’s good for business!

Mr. Navalny is not what you could categorize as “Pro Western”. Yes, he did attend a prestigious US College for a semester, but that hardly makes him a US Spy. That particular University is full of leftwing Socialist. Funny though, most are little rich kids and once again, the old statement of, “I believe in the redistribution of wealth, just not my wealth”, applies. Okay, back on track. His problem is, Mr. Putin’s team may not believe that statement is not true. What Mr. Navalny represents to Mr. Putin is an obstacle and most obstacles at that level have supporters.

Conspiracy Theory run amuck:

I’m the first one to admit, my theory of a potential connection between Mr. Navalny and Mr. Soros is not based on any factual evidence that I am aware of. The fact of the matter is, factual evidence is not what Mr. Putin would worry about. It is not what he would wait to have before finding a way to counter the threat to his dreams. In the West, “facts” seem to keep every political leader in their seat with every agency they control waiting for guidance, that is, unless there is a way to get votes out of a potential event. Mr. Putin is a man who is more than willing to take action based upon assumptions. The fact of the matter is both Mr. Navalny and Mr. Soros are working hard to counter Mr. Putin’s dreams and the fact is…………………that’s a very dangerous road to travel. Two perceived trouble makers. Two people on Mr. Putin’s “list”. I wonder how long before Mr. Navalny’s hair starts to fall out? As for George…..when you look at him, Father Time and the Grim Reaper may come calling before the Tsar has to take action.

Man. I sure do want to write about Venezuela, but the world just keeps getting in the way! 

ISIS ATTACK IN IRAN. A NEW TWIST IN A COMPLICATED STORY.

Is anyone really shocked this took place? Are most “experts” sipping coffee today saying, “what took so long”?  As a reminder to all that care, first and foremost, what is taking place with ISIS is nothing more than an extension of a religious Civil War. A Civil War with the one side headed by the very country that was attacked today. Anyone want to guess how long it will take for the Iranians to blame Saudi and the US? So, the fact that this event took place today is not surprising. What is very……very….surprising is the location of the attacks and the success they Cells had with penetrating the targets. That is the tactical side of this story.

How long has the Iranian government been anticipating such an event? How hard have they planned, trained and exercised for just such a day? What locations in Iran have been given priority for security? In short, how in the world did this happen? The answer for one of the locations rest with the very nature of the target. A public site. Large crowds. Different faces every day. Those identifiers makes the job of security extremely difficult. Just how good was the organization tasked with protecting this hallowed site? Are they allowed to actually exercise at the very location they defend? If not, failure is almost a guaranteed outcome and that is the outcome they had today. Security that is all show and no “go” is not a deterrent to a well-disciplined Cell that has spent time studying their target and you can bet the men that executed this attacked had done their homework. What that boils down to is some poor Commander and a few of his subordinates being blamed for what happened. As for the second target, the Parliament compound, now that is a different story. Is the facility open to the public? If not, then there the Iranians have a much bigger problem.

Insiders:

How does a Cell work up its target package when the facility is something that is most likely tightly secured and not open to the large amounts of public traffic? Again, the assumption here is that the facility is not truly open to the public.  Well, what’s the best way to gather information? Yep. Have someone on the inside. Let me give you an example of something that has puzzled me for well over two years now. In the past, I’ve addressed the mystery of how Iran could have lost so many Senior Officers in the Syrian Civil War? How is it that many of them were killed away from the actual area where fighting was Taking place? How could Iran ever really know the loyalty of every rear area Guard? Men who were not Iranians. Men who were not truly known to the Iranian military. My answer to what was taking place was the issue of “insiders”. So, did the Cell that hit the Parliament Building, and even the Shrine, have “insiders”?

The Enemy of my Enemy is my Friend:

Does Iran’s leadership have enemies inside the country? Absolutely! Would it be possible to recruit one or two low level workers, Janitors let say? Yep. Information needed. Objects prepositioned. That is how the game is played. Did these two Cells have help? That is the real, non-media, question being asked today in Tehran. Who can Iran blame for the event? How will they shape what took place is the political phase of this attack. How to stop the next one and there will be more, that is the real panic room event taking place today. Trust is a concept easily lost when lives are lost. Trust becomes harder to find and maintain once lives are lost. How do the Iranians prevent the next attack? Do they round up anyone and everyone they can think of? Yes, that is the Iranian way. Will that work? Maybe, but they can’t “trust” that it will. The 7^th of June was so close to the anniversary of the death of the Iranian Idol, it just could be that was the date it was to take place. But, then again, the Cell may have anticipated the heightened security for that date and pushed the attack by two days. That is not what will have Tehran burring the midnight Persian Oil. How do they stop the next attacks? Who do they blame? As always, let’s see where this one goes.

QATAR. “YOU ARE ETHER WITH US OR AGAINST US”

Qatar is in hot water again with Saudi. Not the first time, but this one may be somewhat different. It does appear that this time around the severity of the disagreement is deeper. So, what does this mean for the region? What does it mean for the price of gas as that is about the only thing most of the people who have heard of this story really care about? The fact that the events in London took place at the same time drowned this story almost completely, at least in the West.

Qatar. 20 percent Shia. Qatar, with the exception of the work force, all Arab. Saudi, the juggernaut of the Sunni faithful; just don’t tell that to Turkey or Indonesia. So, why the so called friendship between Qatari’s leadership and Iran, Shia, Persians, as if I had to tell you that! 

Saudi, the leaders in Oil. Everyone in the Gulf took and takes second fiddle to Saudi on the topic of Oil. Qatar. The new leader in natural gas, well, don’t tell the US that. Does someone not want to be “second fiddle” anymore? Would that explain the nation of Qatar abandoning the Sunni, Arab world? Doesn’t make sense to me and it doesn’t sell with a lot of other folks.

Al Thani! Is he the Persian version of the Manchurian Candidate? Did his coup against his Father originate in Tehran? It wouldn’t take much for the Saudi’s to grab onto that theory. My problem with coming up with such a thought is based on capability. Is the leadership of Tehran capable of pulling off a Manchurian Candidate plan?  Could the Persians get control of the Son and then, when the time is right, support a Coup? Would Saudi Intelligence not catch wind of such an elaborate scheme? I’m sorry, but I can’t support the very hypothesis I came up with, but I bet I could sell it to the Saudis right now!

What then? What is taking place here? Let’s try this one on for size. Al Thani is yet another egomaniac who is drunk on the power he ripped away from his Father? Does anyone think Saudi or any other member of the GCC supported the Coup….really?  is Al Thani just another Saddam? Does he wake up in the morning, read the news articles his government dictates to Al Jazeera and truly believe what it says….you know…….is he believing his own press? Earlier, I made the statement perhaps Qatar doesn’t want to be “Second Fiddle” to Saudi anymore and I said that I didn’t believe it. Well, maybe it’s not the nation of Qatar that believes the “Second Fiddle” theory. Maybe it’s just the kid who executed the Coup? Why does that matter? Why would I bring that up?

The George  W Bush Days:

“You are ether with us or against us”! Those were the words of Bubba. It now seems those are the words of Saudi. What path is being taken here? Where could this rift end? Is Saudi willing to let the Coup Plotter pull the GCC apart? With the tensions so high between Iran and Saudi, what lengths is Saudi willing to go to? One of the arguments for the US invading Iraq needs to be reviewed here. How many times did you hear the US government say, “We are not against the people of Iraq; we are against the Leadership of Iraq”? Could Saudi plot the Coup against the Coup Plotter? Who would be against them doing so? If you said the US, then think again. The largest US military base in the region is in Qatar? Coincidence? No. What better way to control a potential trouble maker, then to have a large standing force right smack dab in the middle of their country. Yes, the US didn’t support the Saudi events against Qatar. Yes, the US’s tone was, “Can’t we all just get along”, but who did The Donald go see first in the region? Who is more important to him? Is The Donald capable of playing, Good Cop, Bad Cop with Qatar? Absolutely!

What is taking place in the GCC is very……very….serious! What is at stake is the overreaction of Saudi as they see an Iranian plot behind every Sand dune.  This event will not be allowed to continue down a road where Iran gets to play the role of being more diplomatic, more logical than Saudi. Tehran may think this is a wonderful opportunity, but I would caution them to be careful on the statements they make right now. Perception is king in this world and the perception that Iran is taking advantage of this Coup boy in Qatar is a dangerous game for the region.

As for the Emir of Qatar. Young man. A Coup against your own Father is one sin. A betrayal of your faith and your people is yet another. The one thing that victories Coup Plotters seem to forget is that over time, other “Plotters” are close to you! This game has jumped to a much higher level than you wishing to make Qatar the new Fiddle in the region. Let’s see where this one takes us. 

BADR BRIGADES IN SYRIA? OLD NEWS

Took off for the past two weeks or so as I was trying to get ready for the Graduation of my youngest Son. Well, that and honestly there was nothing that earth shattering taking place in the world to warrant me taking the time to write. Did get a few more pages of the book banged out and that is a good thing.

So, what did finally catch my eye to the point I felt compelled to write something this week?
Badr Brigades in Syria? So the Israelis thought that was a news worthy story? I’m not sure why. The idea this group is entering the fight in Syria is new news is off the mark. To some degree, many key members of this organization have been on the ground in Syria for some time now. So, why the story now? Is it really news this group is showing up in Syria? Nope! But, before I address the issue of why they are there, let me touch upon some truths about groups like this one.

Over rated! First and foremost they are overrated. Are they better than the average Joe who had decided to pick up a gun and run around inside of the country once known as Syria? Yes. Yes they are, but don’t misinterpret who they are and what they can do. They are not the modern day version of the Persian Immortals. Honestly, I would take a few female Kurds over them any day of the week. By the way, never…..every…trust the skills of a group that has to show you pictures of themselves wearing all their fancy toys and posing like they are Robo Cop. If you have to show people how “cool” are, then you are most likely less than impressive when the sh…. Hits the fan. Bottom line, the Badr Brigade posers are very much over rated. Have some of them seen hard combat? Yes. Yes, many of them have. The problem is, in that part of the world, anyone over the age of ten has seen hard combat. It’s the new normal in that part of the world. Face it boys of the Badr, you are simply nothing more than a photo op. That leads me to one question. Why the coverage? Why the hype by DEBKA?
Whose idea was it to send this “elite unit” to Syria? Moscow? Nope. Assad? Nope. Tehran’s? Yep. Did Tehran clear this event with Moscow? I don’t know if they needed to. Was it really news to Moscow the Badr bunch was heading into Syria? Did the story even make sense to the folks in Moscow? Did someone in Moscow read this and say, “Badr in Syria??? Ya……so what”? to the Russians, this statement probably ranked right up there with, “ Hezbollah is operating in Syria”! What changed? What made this statement necessary? Are the Israelis worried about something to the point they have to build a bases for more dramatic actions in Syria? Is DEBKA just looking to post something that might sell a few more subscriptions this week? This whole story seems very strange to me.

Yes, there is no rea love story between Moscow and Tehran. Yes, the Iranians are not running down the path of letting the Tsar call all the shots in Syia. Yes, Syria is more important to Iran than it is to Moscow. All of this is true, but a story about the overrated Badr being sent into Syria is just odd. Even if some significant number of their units are being moved into Syria, they will do whatever other unit in Syria has done for the past five years. They will get bogged down. They will get static. They will become just another player in a much larger game.
No the “Immortals” have not shown up in Syria. No this is not some tectonic shift. I’m not sure why this story was put out there, but then again, there simply wasn’t a lot for me to look at this week. Same old, same old has been the rhythm for the past few  weeks.
Venezuela. That is the topic I’m taking on next. That is the one that is flying under the radar, that is, until the Little Fat Man in North Korea pushes the Dragon too far.