AND THEN…THERE WAS MONTENEGRO.

Once again, it’s very easy to overlook an event in the world when so many other critical topics are consuming the headlines. It’s times like these when it becomes very easy to overlook a moment in history that could be key to future, larger events taking place. Sometimes, it’s the little things that lead up to much more important and drastic bigger things! A few small rocks start down the hill, collide with other rocks and the next thing you know, it’s a full blown landslide! Or, pick this one. “ The straw that broke the Camel’s back”!

Montenegro. Why would the news from this little country in Southern Europe matter to the rest of the world at a time when rumors of nuclear war on the Korean Peninsula are once again running rampant? How could little Montenegro become so important as to catch the eye of those tracking what is taking place in the world? Is Montenegro worth worrying about? Short answer………..yes!

Once again. Expansion is the key:

Who cares about the future of Montenegro, besides the people of Montenegro? Moscow does! What has been the driving force behind many of the actions of the Russians for over fifteen years now? If you guessed NATO expansion, you win the prize! Montenegro’s population, like most of that part of Europe, is divided. All you have to do is look at the issues of the 90s and you should understand just how polarized Montenegro or any of its neighbors continue to be. NATO expansion into a nation that has a true split in loyalty is not a well thought out plan. If the leaders of the West want the theory of the West attempting to create a greater Albania to gain traction in Montenegro, then support a vote on NATO alignment without the people getting to vote on the issue.   

When The Donald came to office, it was rumored that he and the Tsar would have this Bromance and during this dating game many of the underlying issues between the US and Russia would be worked out.  At first, The Donald’s statements about NATO sounded encouraging and the Russians may have thought they were winning the game. But, then, reality set in. The Donald got to the White House and found out who really pulls the strings in the world. The next thing we know, Montenegro is being taken in by NATO. So, the Bromance that never was there in the first place, now seems more distant than just last week and you can thank the events in Montenegro for that. Bad news for the US Democrats, but the truth is, they are off the theory of the Bromance and on to one of Donald the Madman!

I’ve said it before and I will say it again and again. The drive behind the Tsar and just about everything he does is based upon the reemergence of the Russian Empire. An Empire that cannot be guaranteed as long as the old antagonist of Western Europe are in a position to keep the Russians from their place as an equal. It’s been going on in Europe for hundreds of years and it’s not going to change anytime soon!

Has Montenegro been manipulated into being just another thorn in the Tsar’s side? Yes? Is there good reason for this? Well, that depends on who you ask. Would the West give a hoot about Montenegro if it were not for the situation Europe is in with Russia? Silly question! Does that prove that Montenegro is a pawn in a larger game? Absolutely! It’s a game nations, all over the world, have been playing for thousands of years.

Montenegro is a small rock tumbling down a hill…..colliding with the other small rocks of Eastern and Southern Europe. At the bottom of the hill is village. That Village’s name is called stability. When those rocks arrive, the Village may not survive.

Ask yourself this? What did you gain by Montenegro jumping onto the NATO wagon? What is the grand plan? 

THE SENATE IS BRIEFED? NOW WHAT?

Well, I really wanted to write about Turkey toady and the issue of Kurds, but it seems like North Korea continues to be the hot topic. The bad news is, it seems to be getting hotter. It’s hard for me to imagine a conflict taking place on the Korean Peninsula. Hard to believe not because of the decisions that would have to be made to make this conflict take place. I do grow more concerned the Little Fat Man may actually blunder his way into fight. What makes it hard for me, is knowing just what a disaster a conflict such as this would create for so many people who couldn’t get out of the way. Experts can talk to they are blue in the face about the impact a war would have on the people of Seoul, but they simply don’t understand the humanitarian impact that fight would have on millions of people all at once. It’s a nightmare perhaps worse than anything witnessed in World War II. Frankly, I’m tired of hearing all the retired Army Intelligence Officers or CIA bookworms making a few bucks as they address the North’s ability to rain hell on Seoul. It makes me ill how these people rush to the scene of a potential human travesty for the sake of making a few bucks. If we are truly close to this event taking place, then it’s time to let the Commanders in the region do their job and not be second guessed by Ambulance chasing “Experts” back in the US. If the Commander of the US forces in Korea gives a public statement about what is taking place, listen to him and turn off the idiots on CNN and FOX. The closer this event actually gets, the more these fools rush to get on TV.

The Briefing:

If part of this briefing is about miniaturization of warheads and the progress the North Koreans may be having on such, then a real timeline was most likely established. If The Donald’s Team gave the US Senate some understanding of what was possibly agreed to with the Chinese, then the Senate may truly understand just how serious this issue has become. I’ve not paid attention today, so I’m not sure if any of them made a mad dash for the podium to speak about the classified information they were given. I have to think a few of them are going to make a comment at some point. I did notice CNN make a big deal out of the issue that Trump may not even attend the briefing! Typical CNN.

The Dragon Comments on the North:

I would think the little fat man would have his slaves, I mean military, paying close attention to the comments or issues that might come out of this “special brief”. The announcement of additional sanctions on North Korea hit the press shortly after the briefing, but then again, what have sanctions ever accomplished with North Korea? The real question is, what impact did this briefing have in the arena of perception management? Did North Korea become even more paranoid knowing the “unusual briefing” took place today? How much additional paranoia can this nutcase take? If ever there was a sign he was cracking, it could very well have been the sharp words and warning he sent to the Dragon. Another unusual event was the Dragon making the comment that North Korea had overstated its military capabilities. A slap in the face? Yes. Was it just a tit for tat with the little fat man or was the Dragon’s statement meant to work the perception issue on the US side? The North Koreans would find it insulting for the Dragon to make such a statement, but it may have been made in an attempt to cool the temperatures in DC. Telling the world the North is not as capable as they boast they are could increase the pressure on the US not to use military force. Who would know better than the Dragon what the North was capable of? Could the comment also show the US the Dragon is continuing to pull away from North Korea? My hunch is, the answer is yes on both accounts.

Where does the world stand now?

Is there truly a war footing on the part of the US? No. Not yet at least. The preparation for such an event, even one limited to “surgical strikes” on key facilities, is far more complicated than just watching the status of troops in South Korea. Unlike India, the deliberate concept of “Zero Start” is not a strategic playbook for the US. A version of a no notice start is always ready with the US, but that’s a reactionary concept, not a operational mission plan. So, the simple answer is, the US is not going through all the anticipated steps to prepare for a very violent engagement. The preparation in South Korea for a war there is mindboggling….trust me on that one….been there…..done that! Having said that, let me go back to my point about the paranoia level of the little fat man. Where is his head? Just how worried is he? Has he taken this too far? Can he find a way out? Does he event want to? Does this madman truly believe he can win a war on the Korean Peninsula? It’s just hard to tell, but the Dragon knows him far better than the West and in the end, that is the world’s best hope.

 Humble Pie:

Okay, here is the part that really hurts and calls for a large portion of Humble Pie. After years of listening to the constant flow of “experts”, most with their black turtlenecks on, such a strange look, I’ve often wondered, do any of them really have any idea of what the next real war would look like? What would happen? What would be the premise of the war? I came to one conclusion. No. No, they don’t have a clue on how the next global event would take place and worse, they had no understanding of just what the impact of such a war would be. Now, I know RAND and a few others have made a great deal of money off of the American Tax Payers to toss some analysis together and I even read one of them. But, I’m convinced they can’t see the real picture. They can’t put the human side to the story. Even in my own background, I never truly understood just how fragile the US and Western world was when it comes to day to day existence, until I spend seven years working in civilian emergency management. For those seven years, my job was to help the civilians, at the state level, respond to events that were far beyond the capabilities of local government. Short answer, scary…very….very….scary just how fragile day to day life is in the US and the rest of the modern world.  As for the typical “experts”, they really don’t get it and the ones that make money claiming they do, well, they are the worst of the batch. Some of you who read this blog site know exactly what I am talking about.

Here is the Humble Pie!  After a few years of tilting my head like a dog hearing a high-pitched sound as I tried to listen to the “experts”, I finally said to myself, “Self…let’s take a shot at the topic”! Yep, you may have guessed it. Deep in the Skunkworks of my Kitchen table and lounger, I’ve been typing away. The next world war. What will it look like? How might it start and most importantly, what will the world look like after it? That’s it. That’s what I’m up to. If you ask, “when”, the answer is within a few months………….. I hope! So, there you have it. After bashing the money hungry “experts”, I’m stopping to their level! One big difference. I don’t care if it makes a dime! When I’m finished, it’s going to Amazon, how I don’t know, but I have a friend who is a writer and she will help me make it happen. From there who reads it and how many actually read it, I don’t really care. When I’m long gone, my family will know it’s there and that is all that counts. Humble Pie! Yep…but mine will taste good! Oh ya. It will be in the format of a report five years after the war. That makes it much easier for me! 

THE SENATE GOES TO THE WHITE HOUSE?

A great deal more talk about this event with the folks outside the US, then in the US. In the US the story-line on CNN is once again something along the lines of how bad The Donald has messed up today. New day, same story from CNN. It’s the new version of the old FOX news flashback from the Obama's days. Okay. Back on topic! So, the story goes, the entire US Senate has been invited to the White House for a briefing on the events in North Korea. The US Vice President canceled part of his Asian Tour to attend the briefing. The Donald spoke to China and Japan on Sunday and the topic was North Korea.

Side note: It makes the press that the US President spoke with Japanese and Chinese Leadership, but no mention of South Korea? Interesting, at least to those who truly believe something is taking place out of the ordinary.

As I stated, this story has generated a great deal more attention outside the US than in the US, at least right now.  I even read a story today about how nuclear shelters and air purifiers were sold out in Japan. Is the world more concerned about North Korea than the people in the US? The Chinese have advised their citizens to not travel to North or South Korea. What does that make the rest of Asia think? It surly seems like the rest of the world is more worried about North Korea than Joe Six-pack in the US. Should they be?

The Brief:

Every member of the US Senate has a clearance, but telling every member of the US House a “secret” is like telling the school gossip you’re pregnant. Two parties, one that is trying to get along with the new President and the other who challenges him on every topic. It may be very difficult to get the President’s point across. Just what is it, the President is going to brief the Senate? That’s the question being asked by the Chinese, Russian, Japanese and yes…. The South Koreans. Here is a hint. Getting a message from the US President, given the political climate DC is in right now, with the hope of obtaining some level of support for some list of options, well, that’s a tall order. The best way to sell a hard message is to let those who have respect on the topic give the pitch. How important do you try to make the pitch? Well, you make sure the US Vice President is there when it’s given, even if that means interrupting a trip.  What do you show the Senate to convince them to listen to your list of options? You show them something they didn’t know and you show them something that will scare the hell out of them. Do they collectively believe the President’s Pitchmen? Probably not! Party politics in the US seems to be more important than national survival. When the briefing is completed, then what? Does the US President hold a press conference? What is the message? What level of unity does the President of the United States hope to show?

How unusual is this unusual event?

Short answer. It’s unusual enough to make other countries nervous and that is all that matters. Here is the question everyone overseas is asking and people in the US may start asking on Tuesday. Is the US President looking for Senate support for military action? Is the President conforming to what just about every member of the Congress and the Senate believe; the US President needs their support prior to taking military action? Now, before you jump to conclusions and say, “Trump would never do that….it’s his right to take action if he sees fit……. He is the Commander in Chief”! I would agree that the US President would not subjugate his or her authority, unless…..unless….. the action the military experts are going to brief are far more damaging to the US and the region than the typical unilateral action by a US President. Attacking, even in joint adventure with Japan and South Korea or even China, would bring on massive destruction and death. Death in large numbers and in a very short period of time that far exceeds anything that has outraged the world in Syria.

If the idea of the briefing is seen as “unusual”, just how “unusual” might the options be?

What is the purpose?

The US President is not asking for support to go to war. The US President is trying to show the Senate just how dangerous the events in North Korea have become. Is the purpose of the brief twofold? Yes, I believe it is. Just imagine the tension the conversation between the Dragon and the Tsar. “What is The Donald doing? What is he about to do?”

Pressure. One main goal of this advertised briefing is pressure. Pressure not on the North Korean Little Fat Man, but pressure on the Chinese. Pressure that continues to force them to take action on their own. Force them to do something before they only have the option of reacting to something already underway.

The Dangers of Perceptions:

How many countless times have I commented on the topic of perception! Put yourself in the shoes of the Little Fat Man in North Korea. This week you were stupid enough to in a roundabout way threaten the Dragon on its actions. Now, you find out the US President is have a very “unusual” meeting at the White House and you are the topic of conversation. Oh, and think about this. This is taking place after the US President has just held a conversation with Japan and China. Placing even more pressure on the Dragon. Is that going to work? Is that what this meeting is really all about? Unity of effort will not be the end result of this briefing. The two political parties in the US simply are not professional enough anymore to stand together and her enemies know it. After this briefing is completed, it will be interesting to see which Senators rush to the news podium and once again, impact the perception process taking place in the rest of the world.  

This story may not rank up there with The Donald’s Tax Plan, but something tells me after this brief is over, the reactions by those sprinting to the podium and those leaders overseas will set other gears in motion.

Telling over 100 politicians a “Secret”, that’s one way to get the world out! They will make Snowden look like an amateur. They might has well invited Lily Tomlin!!!!!

Last, but not least...................    http://www.atimes.com/article/global-times-china-accept-surgical-strike-north-korea/

WARS AND RUMORS OF WARS!

“And ye shall hear of wars and rumors of wars: see that ye be not troubled: for all these things must come to pass, but the end is not yet.  Matthew 24:6

Matthew understood Jesus’s response.  The media is abuzz, drunk on the possibility of a “major war” involving the US North Korea. The greatest rumormongers in the world come from the media. It’s almost as if they dream of being able to blame Trump for a major war, a war where thousands of US citizens and service members are killed. Last night, I listened to CNN nearly have a nervous breakdown as they tried to get US Republicans to give their definition of what President Trump means when he said the time for patients with North Korea is over, or something close to that.

It’s time! It’s time the leaders in North Korea and China hear the US say, “Enough”! Enough, followed by, I’m not kidding! So, is it working? Is the message getting through? Well, that depends on who the message is for. A few days ago, I painted a picture of how the Dragon could end this issue on the Korean Peninsula. Perhaps the messaging of VPOTUS, look it up if you don’t know what it means, was not just for the little fat man in North Korea. Perhaps the message was a follow up message for the Chinese? When the US and China held their meeting a few weeks ago, the message was given, but perhaps it was time to refresh the message? So the US stood in the DMZ and said, ‘Don’t test us and don’t do something stupid’!

The little fat man has lived a charmed life, the life of a spoiled child. Now, suddenly someone walks into the room and says, ‘sit up….shut up and act right or I will smack your ass’! Is that the wrong thing to say? We’ve been trying it the liberal way for decades and what has it gotten us? Yes, we have avoided another war in Korea, but at what cost for the future? I’ve heard it time and time again and I’ve even heard it from some of the Trump Team, from a person I know on that team; “we need to be patient”. Well, unfortunately, saying be patient to an aggressive, delusional brat is interpreted as, I really….really…..really…..mean it this time! The US has been far too patient with this little brat and it’s time the brat’s nanny, the Dragon, understands the price that may be paid by all in the region, to include the Nanny, if his actions are not curtailed. Continuous rants of pending nuclear war cannot be tolerated and rewarding this type of behavior with patients is not the answer.

The world is moving forward and the 21^st Century could be the cornerstone of the Human Race’s expanse, but dangerous events cannot be wished away. In the end, when talking and patients are doing nothing more than buying time for insane leaders, time needed to further weapons development, then hard decisions may have to be made.  It has long been feared the proliferation of nuclear weapons would someday bring the world to crisis and now, we’re there. The Human race is stands at yet another pivotal point. Do we allow madmen to bring down the future of our race? Do we let those who are unwilling to contribute to the future of the world threaten the world? Just how important is North Korea to the Dragon? What dreams for the region are lost if the North Korean leader is allowed to dictate the future of his own insane little country to the rest of the world? Who is next? Who is the next Little Fat Man with huge demands? Is the US and others willing to risk a war in the region, a war that would kill thousands in just days, for the sake of showing the next madman there is no path to glory by threatening nuclear war if you don’t get your way? What terrible price must the world be ready to pay to protect the future of the rest of the world? Do the North Korean Generals desire to see their nation in ashes? Does the Dragon watch as their very border once again turns to a war-zone? Does the little fat man truly comprehend what is taking place here? More importantly, do the ones that support him understand?

Did North Korea “blink”?

In the past few days, the western media has been fixated on the tit for tat verbiage taking place between the US and North Korea and all of it is wrapped into a media message of, “War is getting closer”. Get a few retired military talking heads on the TV and the next thing you know, your ratings are up. But…..But…. did the North Koran message change ever so slightly? Is there a crack in the machismo of the North Korean Dictator? ‘If the US attacks us, we will have nuclear war….if the US uses nuclear weapons, we will use nuclear weapons’? It’s nothing new to hear the North’s stance of, “we will defend ourselves if attacked”, but the rate at which they are repeating is worthy of review. Sometimes when you get right up in a Bully’s face and say, “do it again…. I dare you”, that’s when the Bully finally realizes the façade is over. Is this what the US has done? “We are not kidding” is really…. “We are not kidding”!

The nuclear nightmare that Oppenheimer warned of cannot be allowed to come true. Stable nations can think there way out of nuclear events. Nations that understand the horrors of nuclear war, can prevent them from happening. Insane Tyrants who live in delusional worlds must not be allowed to enter the nuclear family. This insane man is demanding he be allowed to join the family. That cannot happen. You can’t wish this away. Patients is nothing more than playing kick the can and the civilized world, to include the Chinese, have played this game long enough.

It is up to the Chinese to decide the fate of the region. It’s exactly what they are demanding of the world, to recognize China as the Master of the China Seas! This is it. This is their one chance to show their future as a world leader. The Dragon must decide. This is exactly the message the US is giving not only to China, but to the rest of the world. Fix this, before it’s too late and it’s getting very late!

Rumors of war are not the indication of the end of times….Jesus said so. If the world must deal with it’s first nuclear madman, it will not be the end of the world, unless you live on the Korean Peninsula.

There is a very hard decision here to be made and the Chinese get the first attempt at making one. After that, the answer only gets more tragic. 

ALL HAIL THE SULTAN ERDOGAN….WAIT… NOT SO FAST! 

What a stroke of luck for Egodan! With the part of the word that matters still gazing towards North Korea, looking for word of the new war, the one the media is praying for, the timing for his referendum on becoming the new Sultan of the Ottomans was perfect. Sometimes it’s just better to be lucky than good. The Turkish voting event has been in and out of the news, in and out of my post, for over a year now, but at the most critical moment in time, a moment when the normal dumpster diving press would question a 51.3 percent victory, the eyes are simply gazing in the other direction. So, is that it? Is the new Sultan finally coming to power?

Trouble out of the box.

The People have spoken! Well, not really. 51.3 percent and that’s with all the voting fraud Egodan’s team could come up with. They had over a year to figure it out and even then, the EU’s meddling caused panic. Panic because Team Egodan knew just how close the count was going to be. 51.3 percent! If you take into account the fixed or rigged events, the Sultan may have very well lost the vote. So, what does the hold for the future of the Sultan’s grand plan? Is there trouble right out of the box? You bet and here is why.  Take a look at the BBC news story on the final vote count.

Three Cities with a huge message. 

Istanbul, Ankara, Izmir. The three largest cities in Turkey and all three voted “No”! Regardless of what Egodan says or the controlled media shapes, the fact of the matter is the true cities of Turkey turned down the vote. Now the question becomes, what are the people in those cities willing to do about it? The act of standing against Egodan is a dangerous thought, just ask the hundred thousand or so who were rounded up last year. Does a Turkish Spring take shape? Does the old saying of, “The enemy of my enemy is my friend”, begin to unfold? Do the Kurds and the no voters find a common ground? Turkey is not a stable place and anyone who witnessed the events of 2016 understands just how unstable the environment is. Just how successful is this new form of government going to be?
When I read the three cites mentioned above voted against the referendum, I wasn’t surprised. Youth and social media, they are the 21st Century’s ingredient for social unrest. Cities have always been the bastion for unrest and major Universities are typically in large cities. Simply put, universities are the core incubators for youthful discontent. So, where is this all heading?
Who is the most logical target for the Sultan to accuse if any disruption comes? Yep. Gulen.  Would Gulen’s supporters give effort to disrupt the plans of the Sultan? Yep. So, does this mean there is more trouble times ahead for Turkey? Absolutely. More troubled times for Egodan and more pressure on The Donald to make a decision on Gulen. Now, remember how I started this conversation and the point of the world being distracted? Do any of you think The Donald is going to spend the time to work on the Gulen issue in the near future? Nope! Does Gulen and his team know that? Yep.
If protest show up on the streets of any of the major cities in Turkey, you can bet the cry for Gulen’s head will be heard just as quickly. Once again, Gulen becomes the leader of the “Resistance” and once again the question will become, what’s in it for The Donald? How does serving Gulen up to the Sultain benefit the US? Here is one aspect to ponder. If the Bromance is over between The Donald and the Tsar, then the bargaining chip may be on the table. “Walk away from your support for the Tsar and I will give you Gulen”. Sound crazy? Just how crazy is the world right now? Speaking of the Tsar. I have to wonder what amount of planning the Russians have put into the Turkish referendum passing? An embolden Sultan who can continue to be leverage to make life difficult for the EU, that is a valuable item. An item the Tsar will not be quick to give up.
The referendum passed. The new Sultan is closer to his dream. Turkey is no more stable now than it was a week ago and perhaps even less so. But, the eyes of the world are on North Korea, China and the US. If things get much worse on the Korean Peninsula, the timing for the Sultan to crush any, early resistance will be there. A topic worth watching, but for now, all eyes go back to Team Trump and the Dragon’s negotiation on the fate of North Korea. In the 21st Century, with the speed of communications, it will be interesting to see how fast a situation can impact the rest of the world. North Korea influence on the global economy is far more than they realize and the Dragon knows it, but that is a story for tomorrow.

TILLERSON’S MESSAGE. HOW DID IT GO?

Theater; that is how many would describe the post meeting environment when important, dangerous topics are being negotiated between nations. Who gets the best soundbite off first and who sets the baseline for the pending perception battle? Who won the debate yesterday? Each involved nation sends a message intended for their own citizenship and each nation sends a message for world consumption. So, what messages were sent yesterday, after the meeting in Moscow? Well, from the US standpoint, the message from the President was more than dramatic. It was ominous! The real bad news is, this ominous message was the version drafted for the US public.  ‘Maybe worse than it’s ever been’! That’s what I would call ominous. If that was the US Administration message to its own people, what was the message for the rest of the world? Here is the problem, sometimes when the message for the internal consumption is so controversial, the other messages are overlooked. In addition, in today’s world of social media, the ability of governments to send independent messages is almost ineffective or worse, counterproductive. What the world heard yesterday was, ‘ Maybe worse than ever….all time low’! Was any of it for show? Was the old CEO Donald overstating a position to strengthen future negotiations? That is how he ran his business world. Why would he run the US any different? Did the rest of the world believe the statement? I know the liberal media in the US was stunned by the verbiage, but they are stunned by The Donald almost every day of the week.  Today is the day. Today is the day most nations and organizations will contemplate what was said after the meeting yesterday. Markers? What are the markers that might show us just how worried the world really is? Fuel. Fuel is one of the true indicators of relations and it’s the one I’ve been watching for years now. If the giants of that industry get worried, the price of fuel jumps and sometimes jumps big. What did it do today? 20 cents. IT went up only twenty cents. Hard to believe the world is running for bomb shelters just yet with the WTI only going up 20 cents. Does that mean it’s not that bad? No! It means one of two things. Ether some don’t believe it’s as bad as the US stated or, it’s not that bad yet! Oh, by the way! As a reminder, what is the number catalyst of the Russian economy? Yep. The price of fuel! Just keep that in the back of your head.

What was really said?

Here is where I may start to worry you. From the moment this gassing incident turned into a point of contention between the Russians and the US, I’ve been of the opinion the Russians did not formulate this event. I was not convinced they even were aware it was going to take place. My suspicions were on the Persians and their desire to not let Syria slip from their hands were the real culprits. Although I took this stance, I did state it would be more than concerning if the Russians really did have a part in the gas attack. I even said it would be an indicator of just how dangerous the Tsar had become.

I may very well have been wrong about my initial assumption! It appears, according to those I use to work with and trust, well, most of the time, the Tsar did have a hand in this event. If so, the part I did get right was just how dangerous that would be. My fear the Tsar may have been playing the US / Trump / along all this time may in some way be coming true.

Did the Tsar anticipate the story of interfering in the US elections going where it did? Did he believe he could meddle in US Presidential elections given how weak the US seemed, how divided it is and how unconcerned Trump seemed to be over Russian actions? Did the Tsar take advantage of knowing Trump really didn’t know the Tsar like he thought he did? As I said last week, did the Tsar underestimate The Donald? Yes, the Tsar was fully aware the US and the Russians had been “interfering” in other nation’s elections for decades. Did he underestimate where the world has gone with social media? What use to be easy to get away with is now nearly imposable! Did the Tsar’s miscalculation set into motion a reaction from the US President the Tsar was not prepared for? The Donald had to show the world he was not in Putin’s corner and he had to show the world he was not weak-kneed like his predecessor. Did the Tsar’s team of experts not see this coming? Has the US and the Russians been stumbling down the stairs of diplomacy ever since then? If things weren’t going well, not according to “plan”, then why the chemical attack? Again, did the Russians simply underestimate the US’s reaction…the reaction of a new President out to show America is Great Again! Just how bad was the physiological profile the Russians came up with on Donald Trump and the key members of his team?

Looks tell the story.

A picture is worth a thousand words! The look on Tillerson’s face yesterday was the issue that caught my eye first. Then, his body language and the tone of his voice. This is a man who knows the Russians. This is a guy who was chosen as the Secretary of State for the US for a reason. Flat and blunt. That is how a CEO of one of the largest companies in the world has leaned to react to unavoidable bad news. When the news is bad, keep it simple and keep the message short! Don’t box yourself in for further meetings. Whatever was said by the Russians yesterday took the steam out of a guy who knows the people across the table better than most. The Tsar was not supposed to meet with Tillerson, but they know each other and the Tsar showed up? Why? What was the message he wanted to make sure Tillerson understood? As soon as Tillerson and his team were finished, they headed over to the US Embassy and had secured communications with the White House. What was said? What made The Donald come to the podium and say what he did?

Tit for Tat!

By the time the NATO meeting was complete with Trump, it was clear the conversation had taken place with Tillerson. Yesterday, the media in the US asked the question, “How could Trump turn around on the issue of NATO so quickly”? It didn’t surprise me they had no clue and the talking heads the pay to get their faces on the network seemed just as clueless. Tillerson’s message set the Donald in motion! “If the Russians don’t reach out to you in the meeting, then I will show my full support for NATO”! Why did know one see that one coming? Well, some of us did. Donald Trump is a hardnosed, businessman. He comes to the table in a position of strength and if things don’t go his way, then other options are always going to be quickly explored. Imagine the faces in Moscow when President Trump suddenly voiced his unconditional support for NATO on the same day Tillerson came out of a meeting so flat lined. He knew if the meeting didn’t go well his boss had other options he would begin to take. The answers he got from the Russians let Tillerson know what the US President was going to say that day. NATO back in the US bucket. China tossed a golden egg on the issue of currency manipulation. Those two things didn’t happen yesterday by happenstance. Yesterday was a deliberate shift. A shift based upon two world leaders who misread each other from the start. A shift brought on by two guys who come to the table of negotiation strong and determined.

No the price of WTI doesn’t indicate a pending crisis between the US and Russia, but the ground work is set. The concept of a second round of a Cold War is now more plausible than before. Things are heading in a bad direction and both sides need to step back and take a breath. In the meantime, the Persians and the Little Fat Man in North Korea live to see another day in their dreams of the future. Speaking of the little fat guy. If the rumor is true and he is about to set off a sixth nuclear test, the story over this coming weekend may shift away from the new Cold War and focus on the real crisis in the Pacific.  

NORTH KOREA OR RUSSIA? WHAT IS THE CLOSEST DANGER?

All right, the meeting in Moscow is underway. The opportunity to sit down and figure out what happened and why is underway. Was it all a ploy to get the Bromance story off the news? Regardless of what some of the US Democratic party members spew out, no, that is not why it happened. Did it happen because Trump and Putting miscalculated each other? Maybe. If that is the reason, then the fix will start with the meeting today. Did the Tsar sucker The Donald into thinking they were going to be buddies? Let’s pray that is not the answer! Did The Donald want to show the Tsar there is a new Sherriff in town? Again, let’s pray that is not the answer as well. Did the Russians and the US get suckered by Assad and his Persian Puppet Master? As I said last week, if that is true, then the Tsar will handle this event in his own way and the time of his choosing. One thing is certain. The stance of both nations has and will have two faces. One, the official press release version and two, the behind the scenes, “what do we do now”, version.

Talking.

Communicating! That is the key to having a chance of de-escalation. The difference is, the Liberal concept of communicating is the lopsided preference and the conservative concept is minimum communicating that may lead to unbalanced compromise. Negotiation. It’s an art form nearly lost in DC given the polarization of the US political system. Unity of effort is the key when it comes to engaging in difficult international discussions. The danger in the US is, neither party places such a concept on the priority list. Russia will come to the table with one voice, one message…… the Tsar’s message. The US media that supports the Liberal agenda will pounce on any and all statements Team Trump comes up with. Right behind that pounce will be the rush to the podium of power hungry Democrats who’s staff have told them they must give a statement as soon as possible. Yes, the US comes to a very dangerous conversation as a house divided. The liberal media will be more difficult for Team Donald to deal with than anything the Russians may say. Members of Team Trump looking unsynchronized along with stupid press statements made by the White House Staff, can only make this vital meeting more difficult.

Let’s wait to see what the “official” and “rumored” official results are. Sifting through the fake news will make this a very difficult task, but two levels of this story will come out.  

It’s a dangerous meeting and one that must be approached very carefully. But, here is the really bad news! It’s not the most important event that is taking place right now.

A Dragon’s handshake.

What does   the Syrian Eye Doctor and the Little Fat man in North Korea have in common? More than you might think. Both firmly believe their fate is being decided by others. Both believe the very nations that have openly supported them for years and in the process of ending their rule. That gives them a common bond that should not be overlooked. I can assure you, the intelligence community is paying attention to any and all communications between the two.

When Team Trump sat down with the Dragon, was a deal on North Korea really struck? The rumor mill says yes and the odds are some level of understanding was reached. The question becomes, just what version of that rumor does the little fat guy in North Korea believe? How paranoid can a paranoid madman become? Yes. The danger of this event is more disturbing than any play of words taking place between the US and the Russians.

On several occasions, I’ve written about the deal that could be struck over North Korea. Back in 2013, I addressed how the Dragon may find its own plan for North Korea and that plan might lead to a reduced US footprint in the region. So, here we go again. Let me play the “What if” game one more time!

What if the Dragon came to the table with a deal that said something like this. “We will remove the leadership of North Korea and replace it with one that is under our control. We will replace it with a leadership that is slowly going to address the issue of closer ties with South Korea. Over time, they will even talk of reunification! You on the other hand will agree to first reduce and then withdraw your forces from the Korean Peninsula. You will continue to talk to us on the topic of the South China Sea Lanes. We will reduce our posture with Vietnam and Japan and in the end, the Pacific will be what it should be, a trading mecca for the whole world”! Oh ya… “and the fuel in the South China Sea will be negotiated at a controlled price much like the concept behind OPEC”!

Would Team Trump take an offer of getting rid of the North Korean issue seriously if it meant reducing the US military’s footprint in the region at some point down the road? Yep!  You bet. Here is why. The process of removing the little fat guy is a short timeframe event. It’s somewhat of an overnight thing, perhaps even a single gunshot event! The process of reunification will take years and others will have a vote. Short answer, Team Trump may not be around to have to live up to that side of the deal! So, when the meeting was over and both sides walked away, the Dragon had one item to consider. How do they conduct regime change in North Korea? I would be willing to bet you they have a plan and that plan has been on the books for years. The Dragon’s Team then has to ponder if the Trump Team is able to live up to their side of the plan? One thing the Dragon will understand is the joy the people of South Korea will have when the North is no longer run by an insane family. The very idea of possible reunification will energize the liberal youth of South Korea and future South Korean elections will prove it. In the end, what would be the argument for the US forces to stay on the Peninsula? What would the Korean people accept? So, the upside of this type of deal is all there. The down side is the pull out of US forces may not happen for several years, but that is a blink of an eye in the philosophy of the Dragon.  

Sound outrageous? Well, you are underestimating the Dragon’s real goal. The Pacific with reduced US military footprint! Hold out your hand to them. Solve the North Korean issue and then bring your issues back to the table at a later date.

Crack in the Theory.

No, I’m not giddy with optimism on my theory of the meeting, but the alternatives are much uglier for the whole world. My theory has one very…very…… difficult, operational issue. How? How does the Dragon conduct regime change without having the whole thing go bad? How do you take the little fat man’s finger off the military switch? Well, here is how I would do it. Remember I said the Dragon most likely has a plan for dealing with North Korean Leadership? My plan is most likely close to their actual plan. Political Leaders are nothing without two things and one is physically more important than the other. One…the Support of the population. Don’t worry…he doesn’t have it! Those smiles you see are ordered, not spontaneous. Two… the support of the military. A Dictator may have the support of the military and by having this, force the appeasement of the people. History is packed with such events. So, what is the primary target of the Dragon’s regime change plan? Yep. The North Korean Military, but not the line units, but its leadership! What better Assassin could the Dragon chose than one, or more, of the Generals always standing next to him? Could these Generals be convinced to turn on the little fat guy? How has he treated them? How many have witnessed their peers being strapped to rockets for something they were blamed for? How many have families that long for more food, radios, cars…..you now…. a life! How many of them love North Korea more than they fear the little maniac? To bring down the leader of North Korea with as little bloodshed as possible, the Dragon needs those who truly control the military. Figuring out who those key Generals are and how to approach them, that is the part of the Dragon’s plan I’m betting has been around for years now. It could very well be, the right names and the right plans are all ready to go and it just takes word from the Dragon to make it happen. Just think if the Dragon let even part of this plan be known to Team Trump? Just let the Western Intelligence agencies get a hint of this level of planning and the White House will know.

Before you get your hopes up, remember what I called this section of the post. If I am sitting here, dreaming up this concept and it’s based on an age old lesion of betrayal, then why would the little fat man not come to the same conclusion? Who can he trust? Who has the Dragon approached? Have others approached his Generals? The South Koreans…the US?  Try to imagine the level of paranoia this insane man has right about now!  What keeps him from going out in a blaze of glory? What keeps him from taking the preemptive move? Does he take out his General Officer’s staff? I bet he hasn’t read Stalin’s book! Does he try to bluff Team Donald into backing down? What message does he attempt to send next? Just how dangerous is this madman right now? My guess is he is more dangerous that he has ever been. My guess is the Dragon knows this and so the warning to not push too hard is a genuine message. If there is a plan to get the North Koran Generals moving, the Dragon had better make up its mind quickly! The movement of troops to the North Korean Border is nothing new, but it’s also a great way to position your forces without making the little crazy guy jump the gun.

Yes, the meeting with Tillerson and the Russians is important, but the real danger is a Cowboys and Indian movies loving brat who thinks his best friend and bodyguard is about to do him in!