DUNBASS….. THE TSAR’S NEXT MOVE WAS PREDICTABLE.

So the Tsar institutes a decree? The people of the Dunbass region of the Ukraine now have “recognized” Identifications to include Birth Certificates! Now, I am sure that over the weekend the academic wine drinkers had very enlightening conversations on the Tsar’s latest move. “Soft Power”!  They love to talk about “Soft Power”! Not the buzz topic it was just a few years ago, but when I read the DC “Academics”, that term still pops up, especially when the conversation revolves around Russia and the Ukraine issue.

THE DANCE:

With the US Vice President in Europe, trying to calm the fears on the NATO issue along with the US Secretary of Defense, the timing of the Tsar’s “Decree” was not unpredictable.

Two things are going on here.

1.      The Tsar is letting the US and Europe know the issue of the Ukraine is still one of his top two.

2.      The Tsar is past the stage of anticipating The Donald’s impact on Europe and he has moved into the phase of, “let me push a few buttons and see what reaction I get”. It’s a game where the Tsar is undoubtedly the undisrupted Word Campion!  

Yes, what is taking place in Europe in the past few days is far more complicated than that and if you love to read complicated, redundant babble, then you just need to pull up the DC blogs and editorial sites!

So, is it really news that Russia recognizes some level of independent identification from the Donbass region? Yes…….yes it is and the fact the Western Media was clueless to this topic speaks volumes as to their understanding of the severity of the topic. If you are worried about the plight of Refugees from Syria for something as simplistic of the Syrian Civil War, then you would simply not comprehend what a Europe at war would lead to.

A REOCCURRING STORY:  

Once again, the totality of the issue has to be weighed if you want to understand why the Tsar would recognize Donbass documents. The Ukraine was sliced away from the Russian sphere of influence by the West. That’s the way the Tsar sees it and by the way, that is almost the way I see it. Why, “almost”, on my part? As I’ve said time and time again, the Western stance on the issue of the Ukraine is based on, “We didn’t pull them away, but we did accept them when they made their push to the West”! That “push” is the contentious issue between the Russians and the West. What percentage of the population drove the revolt in Ukraine? Does anyone really know? The West will tell you the majority and the Russians will say a small minority. At the time, the Progressive, Liberal administration of the US was more than happy to see yet another socially driven uprising. The Obama team was in love with the concept of the Arab Spring as they saw it as nothing more than the youthful resistance to corrupt government. How the Tsar saw the event was ether not taken seriously enough or some group of “experts” on the Obama Team didn’t understand the value of the Ukrainian region to the Russians! Either way, it was a stupid….stupid mistake.  Honestly, it was a mistake that has destabilized all of Europe and set in motion the collapse of the European Union.

NEXT STEP:

What is the next step? The Trump Team is in Europe trying to mend fences. The Tsar has the Ukrainian issue smack dab in the middle of his desk. The two world leaders are early in the game of learning what the other truly wants. Europe is hearing, “we are with you” from the US, but what is the level of confidence? If there is one thing a politician knows, it’s not to trust the word of another Politician and that goes double for issues on the international relations level.

Can the US convince its European partners they are committed to Europe? Back to one of my favorite quotes, “Deeds before words”! That is what Europe will be looking for. You can bet that is what Putin is watching for.

The Tsar played his next card with the identification issue and he did so at just the right moment in time. Europe is on edge and that edge is getting smaller and smaller to stand on. La Pen is an event that has them holding their breath. With la Pen, Europe gets the end of the EU. Yes, the card game is getting far more serious than most in the West know. The dealer is winning and some at the table are close to folding and walking away. Remember this. The Tsar has been in the Casino business for a long time and his next bet may be the one that makes some fold. Can the US “call” his hand?

Side Note:  The story attached is from sputniknews. Notice the photograph? Passports? Is the Tsar’s News Team sending a message about Donbass?

https://sputniknews.com/world/201702201050861017-russia-putin-ukraine-donbass-passports/

SOLEIMANI TRAVELS BACK TO MOSCOW? HOW WORRIED IS IRAN?

As I’ve said on several occasions, from the day the Tsar placed troops in Syria, the Iranians have feared the repercussions for their own plans in the region. If you have read my post for the past several years, you know Soleimani is a key figure I like to keep an eye on. So how are the two issues related? Why would Soleimani be the mouthpiece for the Persians in Moscow? This is his fourth trip that we are told of, since the Russians began to fight in Syria. Was it his Bosses idea to send him? Did he go on his own? Did the Tsar’s Team summon him? Just how nervous is Iran becoming?

BROMANCE:

If it’s true or not doesn’t matter. As I have said before, the idea of the Russians and the US making “deals” on issues for the Middle East without having the Iranians at the table, well, that is all that is needed to set the paranoid leadership of Iran into motion. The Tsar and The Donald are cutting deals, negotiating, bartering or call it what you may and the Iranians are not at the table. Just think of it, they know the Tsar and The Donald are talking, but they don’t know the details and then the new US President makes openly threatening statements to Iran with little or no response from the Tsar!  Where would your confidence be? Enter Soleimani.

Soleimani, a man that has the attitude Moscow loves. When it comes to killing and it needs to happen, he is Iran’s man! He’s not flashy. He’s not a media hound. He shows up, gets the job done and quietly moves out. Yes. He had a few photo ops awhile back and even I thought that was unusual. But, the fight was going badly in Syria and the image of him rallying the troops was exactly what the Shia Mulitas and Hezbollah needed, well, that and a few thousand bombing runs by the Russian Airforce.  The bottom line is, Soleimani is the right “fit” for a messaging mission with the Tsar. They are a lot alike and that always helps when you are trying to mend fences or worse, trying to figure out what your so called Ally is up to.

RUMOR MILL:

Safe Zones in Syria and now more talk of possible “joint” cooperation between the Russians and the US on the ground in Syria? What does this mean to Iran? What level of it is true? Is Moscow really attempting to conduct combined operations in Syria? What about the Militias and Hezbollah? Two weeks ago, I talked about the perception that a plan was underway to push the Iranians out of Syria. Assad could stay for now, but the Iranians won’t own him! The land bridge to Lebanon will be broken. None of this is acceptable to Iran, but before they can decide what to do next, they need to confirm what part of the “rumors” are real! So, off to Moscow once again goes Soleimani. Here is the problem and it’s a real problem. What level of trust does Iran put in what Soleimani is told? Are the Iranians past the point of believing what Moscow tells them?

All of this is pressure. Pressure on a tyrannical government seated in Tehran. The Tsar is dealing with Saudi, Turkey and now the US. None of that paints a bright future for Iran.

Soleimani is back in Tehran and whatever message he was given is now known. His opinion of the message is just as important as the message itself!

Let’s see what the next move is from Tehran!

https://english.alarabiya.net/en/News/middle-east/2017/02/16/Senior-Iranian-military-commander-visits-Moscow-in-violation-of-UN-resolution-.html

FLYNN AND THE REPERCUSSIONS.

I sit here in amazement this morning. How is it  the US has become so polarized? How did the US  get to the point that some of the powerful in both politics and the media have decided to risk everything for the sake of political power? If I have confused you with this statement, let me play out one of my favorite games. Yep! The “What If” game! When I’m finished playing this scenario, let’s go back and see if one of my other favorite games comes into play; The Law of Unintended Consequences, followed by the Law of Second and Third Order Effects.

What if:

What if what Mr. Flynn was doing was sanctioned by his Boss?

What if what Mr. Flynn was doing was setting into motion a larger plan to bring options to the table for peace in the Middle East?

What if what Mr. Flynn was doing was setting into motion a larger plan to bring resolution to the issue of Eastern Europe and NATO.

What if what Mr. Flynn was doing was setting into motion a larger plan to address the issue of China and the South China Seas?

Is all of this impossible? Is it a stretch to think that someone who may have very good connections a key  component of all these issues, Russia, might be tasked to covertly, quietly, begin to talk to his contacts about these issues? Is it against the “law”? It appears so. Does the US government always follow the “law” ? Please! Does the art of State Craft and international Affairs only follow the “law”? Do not all US politicians not understand the long tradition of “behind the scene” communications? Is this the first time someone from an inbound Administration of a Super Power or any nation for that matter, made “outside the channels” contact? So what is really going on here? What really took place? Is it better to approach the Russians on the Intelligence side of issues rather than the DoS side? Who is the Russian leader and what is his background?

I told someone this morning the whole adventure with Donald Trump seems like a scene right out of the original Frankenstein movie. Trump is being chased through the streets not because he is evil, but because he scares the other side of the political scene in the US. The Progressives lost and an out of the box, Billionaire is now President!

Trump spent a great deal of his energy on the campaign trail convincing everyone  he talked to that he was not like the “rest” in DC. He was different and he was going to do things differently. So now what? If he campaigned on being different, does that mean he can’t take actions like the rest of the old club members did? What’s the message here? “You said you were different, so now we are not going to let you do what we have all done for decades”! Is this an “ We gotya moment”? if so, here is my next question. At what price?

Law of Unintended Consequences:

If the Russians thought they had someone who was channeling “options” to them. If they thought this was taking place prior to the new President taking power, did they believe there was a better chance to work on a few key issues, issues the Obama team refused to work with the Russians on?

The Russians are like any other nation in the world. They knew unofficial communications is a cornerstone of international diplomacy. Everyone has been doing it for centuries! But now, now when the new US President starts that same time tested process with the Russians, suddenly, alarm bells go off! A great injustice has been committed! From the Russian perspective, ask yourself this. Why now? Why with us? Is the answer, some of those in power in the US don’t want a better relationship between the US and Russia? Why does George Soros’ name come to mind? Who is the money behind those who think Trump is the Frankenstein Monster. George, the man who did more to destroy the Russian economy in the 90s than anyone else and by the way, he did not do it for God and County.

In Moscow this morning, it is very possible the Tsar and his team are sitting there contemplating why this event with Flynn took place? Even worse, they are convincing themselves it was all about stopping the Trump Team from mending the relationship with Russia. Remember this. Perceptions are everything in the 21^st Century. If the Tsar thinks  this was an act to stop the repairing of relations, then what action does he have to consider next?

Is that it? Is that what just took place in the US? Did some group decide to prevent the Russians and the Trump Team from mending the fence? Unfortunately, I think the answer is much worse than that. I believe the issue is much more close to home for those in the US.

Burn the House Down…even when you live in it :

This fear in the US of Trump is visceral!  It’s getting close to someone declaring a book burning of all things about Trump! Two political parties in the US hate each other so much, that they are willing to burn down the house they both live in. Both sides have their supporters and both sides demand the other come to the table of common good.

Did the anti Trump Team just destroy a process that has taken place inside of US foreign policy for years? Are the anti Trump folks willing to destroy backchannel concepts for the sake of knocking Trump down a notch or two? Or, is it worse than that? Are they now going to start a real Witch hunt? Does CNN see their version of the Water Gate Team? “Did Trump know”? Is that the lead story now? And if he did, and he most likely did, then what? BURN THE MONSTER!

I’m not sure where the US is heading? The world is not sure where the US is heading! But. I do know this. If the US is so consumed with divisional lust for political power, then her enemies will leverage the event.

Wounded Animals are the most dangerous! If the US is hell bent on becoming a wounded animal, then her enemies will know it. You can ether kill a wounded animal or you leave it alone!

I am amazed what happened with Flynn. Yes, I know of his personal nature and his leadership style and that may have been his downfall. Senior Generals have a tendency to go off the reservation. Just ask any Ambassador.   I hope that is the real story. But, ripping at the seated President over the issue, well, where is the US going? 

EGYPT’S MEDIA. JUST ANOTHER EXAMPLE.

When I read this article, it was clear to me I was looking at a story within a story. Upfront, the theme was simple, was Egypt attempting to control the media information process in Egypt? If that was all this story was truly about, the opening paragraph would have been enough and you could have printed this story and a 3 by 5 card! Yes. Egypt is always looking to control the press and Egypt is not alone in the region or the world in trying to do so. Controlling information is a timeless tool of governance. The idea of Sisi using a military man, a General, to attempt further control, for that is what we are truly talking about here, of the Egyptian news media, well, does that surprise anyone?

Story in the story:

What did the Author of this article miss? What was the real issue overlooked?  Egypt already controls a large segment of the media and as the Author stated, the state owns numerous media outlets in Egypt. The problem is, the ownership is not working! It’s not working in Egypt and it’s not working in just about every corner of the world where government is trying to own, shape the message heard, seen by the rest of the world. Oh, by the way, that same attempt is being made by the “West” as well, it’s just a much more professional process. Just asked George Soros about this plan to put Hillary in the White House. Governance has seen the ability to control information as the key to staying in power for thousands of years. The problem is, technology has made that virtually impossible.

What Sisi has missed, and it could be he and his team know they have missed it, is the fact that no government can completely control social media. Yes, nations like China are taking huge steps to try to do so, but even the Dragon cannot keep the lid on 1.4 BILLION people trying to communicate. Even when the approach is based on punishing those who do try to communicate, such as the Iranian crackdown on satellite dishes, it simply doesn’t work. From the standpoint of governance, social media is the pores object known to the Human Race. Redundant, and globally diversified, social media, in the eyes of governance, is the gift that keeps on giving!

Control:

Is it actually possible to control information in the 21^st century? Here is the most frightening answer you can imagine. Yes!  Single point of failure! Think of this from a targeting issue. If you had to stop the ability to communicate, not just of your enemy’s military or government, but of the people who support them or yes, even your own people, how would you do it? Yes, I’ve heard the argument time and time again about the redundancy of the global satellite network and I’m here to tell you, the trust is such a redundant concept is based on hope and “hope” is not a plan!

Satellites are they key to the human races ability to communicate at the rate nearly everyone has come to expect. Gone are the days of sending a letter and waiting two weeks, if you were lucky, to hear back from someone or some group.  In today’s world, the second someone hits, “send” they are sitting there waiting on a reply. Sad, but true! So, if a government wants to disrupt, a form of control, communications, then where do you think they may head? The good news is, only a very few nations have the ability to do such damage, at least for now. The real bad news is, a few of those nations are run but madmen!

Look, it’s not new news that oppressive governments are in a state of panic over the impact of Social Media. To be honest, even stable governments and political parties are constantly trying to figure out how to control what takes place on Social Media. The fact of the matter is this. The panic button for stopping communications is not controlling a TV station or a website. The weapon of choice will be the attack on the single point of failure.

Egypt struggles with what its people hear and who tells it to them. Every government in the world that seeks control of what their people hear suffers from the same event. Every government fears the same repercussions.  In a crisis, what is a desperate government willing to do?

As a great author once wrote, it’s a “Brave New World”.

http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2017/02/egypt-army-state-control-media.html

“FRENEMIES”

“Frenemies”! Sometimes a single word can do more to frame an issue that 10,000 words written by someone swimming in the pool of Academia. Mr. Gurcan’s attempt to explain the predicament Turkey is in is a prime example of my comment. “Frenemies”! I love the concept and the simplicity behind that word. Frenemies are not new to the region and the concept has been around as long as there has been organized conflict. Today, the situation Mr. Gurcan addressed in this article is replicated in every square inch of the Middle East. How do you live with a group or movement that appeals just enough to a percentage of your population that you can’t afford to crush it or worse, ignore it? From a perception and control viewpoint, Gurcan’s first group are much easier to not only deal with, but to explain to the Turkish public. Then, Gurcan hits the nail on the head! Switching sides! How many times in the past six years have I addressed the issue of “switching sides”? Hired guns! Young Men looking for adventure when that adventure is the only game in town. That’s been the truth behind the core strength of the Radical Islamic Groups. It’s been the core value behind the Drug Gangs in Mexico and Central America. It’s been the core value of the Street Gangs of the United States. If Tukey and or Mr. Gurcan understands that, then they may just understand the genetic weakness of these organizations.

What makes an uncommitted individual leave? What has taken place when a on again, off again supporter decides to jump ship? Is there a bright and shiny object effect? Does something else look more appealing over time? Do these members, who have commitment and loyalty issues to begin with, simply grow tired of taking orders from leaders they don’t respect? What is the “Life Cycle” of any organizations base? If the “Grunt” is the backbone of the movement, what makes the “Grunt” walk away? Now, some very smart people have been paid a great deal of money to look at this concept and they have been doing so in areas like the Middle East for over fifteen years. The US military’s attempt, along with several other “Agencies”, to break into this mental loop has produced books, lectures and made some people, organizations, very rich. The level of success is measured by the fact that these groups are still being dealt with today. It seems we can see the problem. We can give lectures on how to defeat the backbone of these organizations, but in the end, they are still hear. They are still supported by their core members who have the ability to slide from one group to the next and then back again.

The US, for all of its “experts” and all the tax payers dollars spent, is no better at dealing with what Mr. Gurcan states than most of its Allies. Oh ya…….some of those “Allies” are also….. “Frenemies”! Imagine that!

So, if you have ever wondered why it’s so hard to arm one group and fight the other, then think about the whole concept of the “Frenemies”. 

I wonder if Mr. Gurcan realizes the concept of “Frenemies” is much more applicable to nations than it is to movements or gangs.

Drug Gangs and Terrorist Groups? What are all the similarities? Something fun to think about, but then again, I am sure the books are out there. Boat payments needed to be made or someone needed to get on FOX or CNN news. Oh well. I may take a shot at it anyway.  

http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/authors/metin-gurcan.html

LE PEN’S PENDING VICTORY IN FRANCE? IF SHE WINS, WHY?

Started to write this yesterday, but wanted to go read a few more opinions on the issue, especially from the Russian side of the fence.  Before I get started, let me recap the “Big Picture”.

Soviet Union collapses.

West “Assures” The Russians they will not expand into Eastern Europe, specifically NATO.

Putin’s rise to power, a man who was emotionally scarred by the speed of the Soviet collapse.

Eastern European nations work to become members of Western Europe, to include military alliances.

Western Europe and the US accept this desire. “We didn’t move into Eastern Europe, Eastern Europe moved to us”!

Russia sees its historic “Buffer Zone” being assimilated into the West.

Putin’s power grows and his vision of a new Russian Empire hardens.

The events in Georgia take place. The rest of Eastern Europe watches!

The events in the Ukraine take place. The rest of Eastern Europe worries!

Putin begins a plan to destabilize Europe / EU nations. 

Conflict in the Middle East is leveraged to further destabilize Europe / Mass Refugee event.

A growing percentage of Europe’s population begins to question the future of the EU and their loss of individualism / National pride.

Britain votes to leave the EU.

Terror attacks continue to take place throughout Europe and the Liberal Government’s look powerless to prevent them.

Migrants and non-nationals once again begin to take the blame for events in Europe.

Russia plays Turkey into making the migration issue even worse/ flood gates.

A growing part of the population of Europe / Western Europe / fear for the stability of their countries.

Far “Right” parties blame the Liberal Passive leadership of Europe.

Europe continues to slide to the Right.

Trump is elected in the US and the “Model” is set.

Putin shows he can regulated the worries of Europe and the Mass Migration issue by controlling Syria.

Putin’s stock goes up not in Eastern Europe, but in Western Europe!

Okay, for all you scholars out there, this is an over simplification of the issue and I am well aware that if something this complex is made this simplistic, it makes it very difficult for all of you to sell long, boring books that show off your ability to do historical research! Sorry!

Here is the simple truth about people like La Pen. She and the others like her in Europe / West and East / represent the fear that is continuing to grow in each nation’s belly! She and those like her signify the long desire to retain the historic, nationalistic pride deep inside nations like France, England, and Germany! Those who never really believed in some utopic “Europe”…. A Europe that has no borders, one currency and one set of laws, well, their numbers are growing! The desire to return to the pride of individualism is the center of gravity for those who no longer see Europe as one large entity. Those who wish to end the pipe dream called the European Union! And who dreams of this more than anyone about to vote in France? The Tsar!

 As I have mentioned this time and time again, but, a great man once said, “A house divided cannot stand”.

A collapsed house has no room for new Boarders and that is just the message the Tsar is giving to Russia’s old Buffer Zone called Eastern Europe!

The Master Plan of the Tsar continues. 

THE “WALL” AND THE MEXICAN DRUG CARTELS.

If you have followed my postings on Mexico, you know that I’m a fan of borderland beat. Is it perfect journalism? What is? Is the site questioned on its sources of information? Yes, no different than any other investigative operation. So, what sets Borderland Beat apart from the rest? Simple, feedback! Look at “comments” section of just about every article they post and you will find an unusually high volume of opinions. I watched postings, editorials and so called professional news stories as they are posted from all four corners of the globe. Very few of them match the amount of feedback Borderland Beat generates.

Not only does Borderland Beat prosper from the high volume of feedback, the clientele of who responds is even more remarkable. About ten years ago, I was talking to few coworkers about this site and the major topic of our conversation was the realization of just how many Drug Cartel members, supporters, were responding to most of the postings. Borderland Beat had and has a reputation of getting into a story quickly with a flair for raw information. Photos! They understand the power of photos! As we continued to “follow” this site, it became clear just what level of feedback was being provided. Not sure the Drug Cartel leaders ever understood or still understand the importance of hearing from the very people who are creating the violence in Mexico and the US. Yep.  Borderland Beat gives a voice to those who are in the trade and those same members provide great information if nothing less than on the psyche of the “Players”.  This whole issue of “feedback” is important to what my point will be here in just a few minutes.

THE WALL:

http://www.borderlandbeat.com/2017/02/the-border-wall-making-mexican-drug.html

I won’t argue that some of the points brought up in this article are more than a “stretch”, but I also won’t argue a few of the Author’s points are more than possible. The topic of the building the Wall is far more complex than The Donald realized or probably still realizes and I have little confidence in just what level of analysis is taking place in DC. What are the Second and Third Order Effects of this Wall? Who is truly looking into one of my favorite issues; The Law of Unintended Consequences?

As much as I enjoyed reading this posting, let me make an overall comment. The Author has a fundamental flaw in the analysis. The Wall is not about drugs! It’s about people! Now, I realize the Author is looking at the topic of the Wall from the perspective the site is most concerned about, drugs, but stopping the flow of drugs into the US is not the primary intent of the Wall. Just look at the Trump’s Campaign message from day one. The Wall was, is and will be about people! Illegal Emigration. That was the drive behind the concept. The Donald did not campaign on an anti-drug platform. He drove his message to the American Blue Collar Class on Illegal Emigration and jobs!  So, in a sense, the Author has done what I’m afraid DC is not. This story, with a few of its assumptive flaws takes a real shot, no pun intended, at Second Order Effects and The Law of Unintended Consequences. It’s for that reason alone I found this worth talking about.

FEEDBACK:

Okay, back to my point about “feedback”. At the time I read this story, there were over 75 comments made on this one post. As I stated earlier, that is a remarkable response! If you take the time to read through the comments, you should be able to see the wide variety of responses. As is the case with most editorial articles, the level of intelligent thought is ………“wide” to be politically correct! What makes the responses on Borderland Beat valuable is the “who” not the “what”.  I can guarantee you many of the 75 comments were made by individuals who are in the drug business or deal with the drug business!  How does the Drug World see the issue of “The Wall”?  What do they believe the consequences might be of that Wall going up? And most useful of all, do the decisions makers in the US and Mexico understand the options that might be revealed here?

Opportunity lost or gained. What will it be?