LE PEN’S PENDING VICTORY IN FRANCE? IF SHE WINS, WHY?

Started to write this yesterday, but wanted to go read a few more opinions on the issue, especially from the Russian side of the fence.  Before I get started, let me recap the “Big Picture”.

Soviet Union collapses.

West “Assures” The Russians they will not expand into Eastern Europe, specifically NATO.

Putin’s rise to power, a man who was emotionally scarred by the speed of the Soviet collapse.

Eastern European nations work to become members of Western Europe, to include military alliances.

Western Europe and the US accept this desire. “We didn’t move into Eastern Europe, Eastern Europe moved to us”!

Russia sees its historic “Buffer Zone” being assimilated into the West.

Putin’s power grows and his vision of a new Russian Empire hardens.

The events in Georgia take place. The rest of Eastern Europe watches!

The events in the Ukraine take place. The rest of Eastern Europe worries!

Putin begins a plan to destabilize Europe / EU nations. 

Conflict in the Middle East is leveraged to further destabilize Europe / Mass Refugee event.

A growing percentage of Europe’s population begins to question the future of the EU and their loss of individualism / National pride.

Britain votes to leave the EU.

Terror attacks continue to take place throughout Europe and the Liberal Government’s look powerless to prevent them.

Migrants and non-nationals once again begin to take the blame for events in Europe.

Russia plays Turkey into making the migration issue even worse/ flood gates.

A growing part of the population of Europe / Western Europe / fear for the stability of their countries.

Far “Right” parties blame the Liberal Passive leadership of Europe.

Europe continues to slide to the Right.

Trump is elected in the US and the “Model” is set.

Putin shows he can regulated the worries of Europe and the Mass Migration issue by controlling Syria.

Putin’s stock goes up not in Eastern Europe, but in Western Europe!

Okay, for all you scholars out there, this is an over simplification of the issue and I am well aware that if something this complex is made this simplistic, it makes it very difficult for all of you to sell long, boring books that show off your ability to do historical research! Sorry!

Here is the simple truth about people like La Pen. She and the others like her in Europe / West and East / represent the fear that is continuing to grow in each nation’s belly! She and those like her signify the long desire to retain the historic, nationalistic pride deep inside nations like France, England, and Germany! Those who never really believed in some utopic “Europe”…. A Europe that has no borders, one currency and one set of laws, well, their numbers are growing! The desire to return to the pride of individualism is the center of gravity for those who no longer see Europe as one large entity. Those who wish to end the pipe dream called the European Union! And who dreams of this more than anyone about to vote in France? The Tsar!

 As I have mentioned this time and time again, but, a great man once said, “A house divided cannot stand”.

A collapsed house has no room for new Boarders and that is just the message the Tsar is giving to Russia’s old Buffer Zone called Eastern Europe!

The Master Plan of the Tsar continues. 

THE “WALL” AND THE MEXICAN DRUG CARTELS.

If you have followed my postings on Mexico, you know that I’m a fan of borderland beat. Is it perfect journalism? What is? Is the site questioned on its sources of information? Yes, no different than any other investigative operation. So, what sets Borderland Beat apart from the rest? Simple, feedback! Look at “comments” section of just about every article they post and you will find an unusually high volume of opinions. I watched postings, editorials and so called professional news stories as they are posted from all four corners of the globe. Very few of them match the amount of feedback Borderland Beat generates.

Not only does Borderland Beat prosper from the high volume of feedback, the clientele of who responds is even more remarkable. About ten years ago, I was talking to few coworkers about this site and the major topic of our conversation was the realization of just how many Drug Cartel members, supporters, were responding to most of the postings. Borderland Beat had and has a reputation of getting into a story quickly with a flair for raw information. Photos! They understand the power of photos! As we continued to “follow” this site, it became clear just what level of feedback was being provided. Not sure the Drug Cartel leaders ever understood or still understand the importance of hearing from the very people who are creating the violence in Mexico and the US. Yep.  Borderland Beat gives a voice to those who are in the trade and those same members provide great information if nothing less than on the psyche of the “Players”.  This whole issue of “feedback” is important to what my point will be here in just a few minutes.

THE WALL:

http://www.borderlandbeat.com/2017/02/the-border-wall-making-mexican-drug.html

I won’t argue that some of the points brought up in this article are more than a “stretch”, but I also won’t argue a few of the Author’s points are more than possible. The topic of the building the Wall is far more complex than The Donald realized or probably still realizes and I have little confidence in just what level of analysis is taking place in DC. What are the Second and Third Order Effects of this Wall? Who is truly looking into one of my favorite issues; The Law of Unintended Consequences?

As much as I enjoyed reading this posting, let me make an overall comment. The Author has a fundamental flaw in the analysis. The Wall is not about drugs! It’s about people! Now, I realize the Author is looking at the topic of the Wall from the perspective the site is most concerned about, drugs, but stopping the flow of drugs into the US is not the primary intent of the Wall. Just look at the Trump’s Campaign message from day one. The Wall was, is and will be about people! Illegal Emigration. That was the drive behind the concept. The Donald did not campaign on an anti-drug platform. He drove his message to the American Blue Collar Class on Illegal Emigration and jobs!  So, in a sense, the Author has done what I’m afraid DC is not. This story, with a few of its assumptive flaws takes a real shot, no pun intended, at Second Order Effects and The Law of Unintended Consequences. It’s for that reason alone I found this worth talking about.

FEEDBACK:

Okay, back to my point about “feedback”. At the time I read this story, there were over 75 comments made on this one post. As I stated earlier, that is a remarkable response! If you take the time to read through the comments, you should be able to see the wide variety of responses. As is the case with most editorial articles, the level of intelligent thought is ………“wide” to be politically correct! What makes the responses on Borderland Beat valuable is the “who” not the “what”.  I can guarantee you many of the 75 comments were made by individuals who are in the drug business or deal with the drug business!  How does the Drug World see the issue of “The Wall”?  What do they believe the consequences might be of that Wall going up? And most useful of all, do the decisions makers in the US and Mexico understand the options that might be revealed here?

Opportunity lost or gained. What will it be? 

THE DONBASS ISSUE. AN ALTERNATIVE VIEW

Well, as you get older the saying goes, you get wiser! That didn’t hold true for me yesterday. As I was burning a few brain cells on the latest events in Eastern Ukraine, I missed a scenario that I shouldn’t have. It wasn’t until this morning, when I read this attached article, that I realized a very real scenario. What if the Tsar truly is not behind the flare up in Donbass region of the Ukraine? What if the event is the action of the government in Kiev? How did I not think that one through at the level I should have? I have only one answer. I’ve been so fixated on the concept of a Trump / Putin bartering concept, that I let myself overlook the reality the seated government in Kiev is not made up of a bunch of Knights in Shining Armor. Did Poroshenko and his team plan this latest round of unrest? What is Kiev worried about?

WHAT’S GOOD FOR THE GOOSE IS NOT ALWAYS GOOD FOR THE GANDER:

What would a new relationship between the Tsar and The Donald mean for Kiev? In the close door discussions on the future of commitments to Europe, where does the Ukraine fit in? Yes, it’s a major part of the Tsar’s disunion with The Donald, but where is the new US President on the topic? Does Kiev really know? Do they trust what they are hearing? True, Western military leaders are in Kiev. True Western Diplomats are talking to Poroshenko’s team, but what is the level of confidence? Words? Like I always say, “Deeds before words”!

Is the Ukraine any different than many of the other countries as they watch this new dance between the US and Russia? Can the Ukraine simply hope their future turns out the way Western political and military leaders are telling them? Would the US or the Russians settle for such words of assurance?

PERCEPTIONS:

Once again, the ageless issue of perception comes into play and this time, it’s not just the perception from Kiev, but the perception from Moscow!

Yesterday I made the comment there was no way the Pro Russian Rebels / Donbass Militias, take your pick, would instigate military conflict in the region without a green light from Moscow. So ask yourself. Could the Tsar possibly believe the pro-Western government of Kiev would do the same without the knowledge of key Western powers? Interestingly enough, the answer may be “yes”! If someone walked into the room and told Putin there was an unforeseen event taking place in the Donbass region he might believe it was a sanction event given the amount of Western / US / military advisers in Kiev. He might think to himself, “Is Donald testing me? Is he showing me he too can press issues to gain leverage in the ongoing bartering game”?   Remember, we are talking about a very methodical, yet, paranoid Tiger Hunter here! He may come to the conclusion, as this article states that Kiev is simply trying to place the Ukraine issue back on the front burner. Does that mean it had Western support? That’s up to the Tsar to decide!

Perception. It’s the force that drives the world. It’s the core value of two very powerful men. Two men who are in the early stages of dancing a very complicated and dangerous tango! What an ugly mental pictureJ

https://sputniknews.com/europe/201702041050343247-ukraine-nato-prospects/

A QUICK LOOK AT THE EVENTS IN DONBASS

So, what is taking place in Donbass and more importantly, why now?

Donbass Militias? Does Sputniknews.com mean “Pro Russian Rebels”? Does anyone believe these groups do anything without guidance from Moscow? Are we to believe they are just Free Radicals, bouncing around in the Tsar’s backyard? Not hardly! So, why is this “flare-up” taking place now? It’s typically not the right time of year for such a thing, winter, but they have had snowy events in the past. Still, something is up!

For all the talk of the new found love between the Tsar and The Donald, yep, I’ve picked my nickname for him, just how much trust can there be in this relationship? Would both sides not make an attempt to hedge their bets? Is the Tsar ever really “all in” on any deal? How about an international Businessman worth Billions? Just how stable is this so called love affair? Do either of them compromise everything they intend on doing for the sake of their working relationship? Silly question, but it leads to a bigger discussion.

TRUST:

The Donald and the Tsar have worked around each other for many years. Their interactions in the Casino business alone has made them understand each other. “What does he want? How does he operate? Who does he ‘trust’? How far do I trust him”? These are very likely questions that have been asked by both men in the past.

Does the Tsar trust that his plans for restacking the deck in Europe will happen with only the interactions of The Donald? No!

Does The Donald rest any concept of the US’s interaction with Europe based on his relationship with the Tsar? No!

So, just how far does this relationship go?

In the world of international relationships, relationships between nations that have had and are having difficult times, are other measures required to give the right message? How does the Tsar Show leverage after he and The Donald start negotiating? More importantly, how does the Tsar or The Donald “Test the Waters”? Is the Tsar looking to see what the US’s response will be if a controlled flare up takes place in Eastern Ukraine? Is it a “test” or is it a “message” or perhaps both?

My take is this. The Tsar is testing the new US President as well as sending a message to Europe. If the Tsar pushes a controlled event in Eastern Ukraine, Europe gets to see just how the Trump Administration will react. The Tsar knows all too well parts of Europe have a real fear the US is pulling away from their issues. They have all heard the talk of the future of NATO. The Tsar is testing the US and placing further doubt in the people of Europe. He won’t let it go too far. It will not get out of hand for now is not the time. His relationship with the new US President is too important right now. But, a little nudge….. a little hint of what could be if things between them don’t go well….. that is just the Tsar’s style! Interaction with the Tsar is far different now than simply dancing around each other over the Casino business! My bet is, The Donald has little to say about the events in Ukraine and that may be just the message the Tsar wants the rest of Europe to hear!

https://sputniknews.com/europe/201702031050318233-un-peacekeepers-kiev-donbass/

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-38850375

THE FIRST “OFFICIAL WARNING TO IRAN”!  STEP ONE IN THE US / RUSSIAN BARTERING GAME?

Before I get started, let me get this out of the way. I told ya so! A few days ago, I posted my opinion the Iranian missile launch story would knock the immigration controversy off the front page, at least for a few days.

So, when was the last time we witnessed a National Security Advisor to the US President be called to the podium during a “normal” White House press briefing? Besides that oddity, did anyone pay attention to the tone of the message? Not your typical, past eight years, talk around the topic. Flynn put Iran, “On notice”! Now, the Iranians know Flynn. They have a profile on him from his days of working in the region. I can assure you that nowhere in that profile does it state, “He tends to embellish. He often says things he doesn’t mean”. Flynn is get to the point kind of guy and that is exactly why President Trump picked him. Once the Iranians got over the shock of this new and unusual way of receiving a message from DC, a reoccurring question must have become the topic of the day. Had the Americans and the Russians begun their plan for the region? Was this round one of a new day in the region?

COINCIDENCE:

It’s true that just about any source of information can be questioned and should be.  Good intelligence operations work best when all sources of information are vetted to the extent possible. Rumors can be a valuable source of information as long as other avenues are taken to validate raw data imbedded in the “Rumor”. So, there is this “Rumor”. A rumor that the Russians have told the Iranians and the Syrians and all Hezbollah to stand fast! There is to be no Offensive Operations anywhere inside of Syria! If this were true and I want to stress the word if, then we would need to stack that event on top of the “Rumor” that the Iranians were not allowed to give any conditions in the Syrian peace negotiations of last week. http://www.debka.com/article/25908/Russia-freezes-Syrian-Iranian-military-movements

  Then we stack that “rumor” on top of the one that depicted all  Iranian backed Shia Militias will not be factored into the post Syrian conflict. Put all of these “rumors” together, valid or close to being valid, and we come up with one undeniable fact. The Iranians are not partners at the Big Table!

So, is it just a coincidence the US takes an open slap at the Iranians? Was the US threat the signal the new deal is underway? If the coverage of this story by Sputniknews.com, the Tsar’s mouthpiece, is any indication, how could the Persians be anything but convinced? What do they do? Call Moscow and asked, “What’s up? Are we just to be left in the dark”? Regardless of what the answer might be, the reality is, the Persians are most likely convinced two of the three true Super Powers in the world are deciding the future of the region and that future doesn’t involve the desires of the Persians. https://sputniknews.com/politics/201702021050274741-trump-iran-missile-test/

MUSIC TO THEIR EARS:

With elections just over the horizon in Iran, once again, harsh actions by the West / US / will play right into the hands of the Hardliners in Iran. Between the arguments the nuclear deal was a hoax by the West and now the US openly putting Iran on notice, the fanatics will take every advantage they can. “I told you so and now we must prepare”! Don’t doubt for a minute that statement, in some form or fashion, is not being repeated in Tehran. Pushing the so called Moderates to the side is the objective of the Hardliners and the events of this week played right into their hands.

Here comes another old adage. “Be careful what you ask for”! If the Hardliners in Iran are banking on a more defiant US President. If they are anticipating the Russians making deals that involve the region and not letting Iran in on the game, then they may just get too much of a good thing!  Yes. The US is going to change the attitude towards the Iranian current, and I stress current, leadership. The US and the Russians are going to barter issues in the Middle East to get to more important topics on their plates……. Europe, NATO and the Pacific.  

Yes! The Persians are probably correct! The new game is most likely underway. How fast it moves and what the level of play is what they will need to worry about next. Then again, as I’ve said before, if they feel like they have been played, then how do they react?

Dear Iranian Hardliners. Be very…very….careful what you ask for. The consequences could be dramatic. You have many enemies in the region and the events of the past few weeks are only the beginning of a new day. A day that doesn’t have your dreams on the to do list! 

AMONGST  THE HYSTERIA, A MISSILE FLIES? DID ANYONE PAY ATTENTION?

Honestly, I turned off the news streams in the West for the past two days. Did anyone think for a moment that as the new program for immigration into the US started and outcry of “Wait for me” wouldn’t start? No matter what the details of the plan may have been, the reaction was going to be the same. The fact that a Obama appointed US Department of Justice member decided to make a political show out of the event only shows how off balance the US really is.  Yes. Once again in the US, party politics is far more important than national / international issues. Well, that is why I turned off the Western news!

A few days ago, the Iranians launched a mid-range missile. It was yet again, a clear violation of the worthless agreement signed by the Gang of Six on the issue of Iran’s nuclear program. Did anyone notice? The Trump Team did and I am sure the intelligence community in several countries noticed as well.

So what?

Is this the first time the Iranians have openly violated this signed “joke”? No! So, why not just ignore this one just like the others? What is different? What changed? Yep. Trump! That’s what. An opportunity has presented itself and the Trump Team is likely to jump on it. Who called for the emergency meeting of the UNSC? Yep. The US. Does this mean the issue is about to become a major issue? In my book it’s very possible. President Trump has spent every single day since his swearing in addressing the list of issues he stated he was going to address if he became President. Why should he skip the Iranian nuclear deal? Okay, yes, he has sidestepped the Embassy issue, but I don’t know for how long. Sisi got to him on the issue and the need for Egypt to be “ on board” with other issues in the region may have moved the Embassy event to the right…… but who knows for how long! Trump has said time and time again what a bad “deal” this Iranian nuclear program event was. How could he let the Iranians openly defy the agreement so early in the Trump’s term? I don’t think he will and that is something the Iranians may have miscalculated.

Power Struggle continues!

Could the Iranian hardliners take this bold action for a reason? Could they be more concerned about forcing the US to react and thus strengthening the hardliners position in Iran, just prior to another election cycle? Yep. That wouldn’t be a new tactic on their part.

When President Trump spoke to the Tsar last week, did the Iranian issue come up? Who knows but it’s very possible something was said that impacts Iran’s future in the region. Syria and Iran’s involvement in the conflict was most likely the catalyst for any conversation on the Persians. Did the Russians know the Iranians were about to test this missile? It depends on what status the site was in. The intelligence community has the information that allows them to predict a test launch, but what day is it actually going to take place depends on several factors with one usually being when fuel is loaded. Anyway, the point is this. Does President Trump’s reaction to the Iranian launch start with a conversation with the Tsar or does he have his UN Ambassador make a point at the UNSC meeting, or does he do both.

Rumors:

The US needs an event to set the whole issue of the Iranian program into motion. The Trump Team may even have a plan for how they wish to deal with the Iranian program. Did they need this launch to get the ball rolling? Has the Tsar already mapped out his plan for Iran and the region? Does he wait for the US to set the game into motion?

Is the issue of the immigration policy changes in the US going to blind the American people to the point that other events in the world go unnoticed? Internal bickering is sweet music to the US enemies’ ears!

Let’s see what happens next.

https://english.alarabiya.net/en/News/middle-east/2017/01/31/UNSC-to-hold-urgent-talks-on-Iran-missile-test.html

THE US RELATIONSHIP WITH MEXICO. THE SAGA CONTINUES.

Back to the topic that seems to occupying a great deal of time in the US and rightfully so.

Mexico. I’ve written about what is taking place. I’ve written about why it’s taking place and I’ve written about where it might all be going. So, what is there left to write about? Well, I want to go back to my discussion on the concept of the pressure cooker and how the Mexican Government works hard to keep this social pressure cooker from gaining steam!

Short and sweet. As I have said, by pushing those in Mexico who are desperate, desperate due to a long history of failed, corrupt governments, the Mexican Elite keep them from marching on Mexico City. If those people are force to stay home, where does the Mexican Government believe they will show up? Yep. Pressure!

Now, when you have enough pressure on two objects, what tends to happen? The meld, merge, become one mass.

In Mexico you have the poor who have just in the past few years began an old tradition in Mexico; armed resistance. Object number one!

In Mexico, you have far left, Socialist Universities who students are made up for kids from poor, rural families. Universities that were designed to give the poor some perception of hope, but not have them walking into the high-rises of Mexico City taking jobs reserved for the upper-class children of Mexico’s Elite! Object number two!

Look…………… It’s simple. The more the pressure rises in Mexico, a nation that is unstable on a good day, the more the risk of real social unrest comes into play.

As the risk of social unrest grows, the more the Mexican Government will become desperate to find a relief valve.  The Wall will not allow the people they want out of Mexico to leave. Yes. They don’t see the Wall as not letting people in. the Mexican Government sees the Wall as not allowing people out!!!!!

Options:

The Mexican Government will look at the following options.

Reach out to new Partners, Partners that would upset the US perception of the relationship between the US and Mexico and would also allow the party in opposition to lash out at the US President. Short answer….. reach out to the Tsar or the Dragon for the simple fact of pissing the US off.

https://sputniknews.com/world/201701191049777313-mexico-petition-corruption-putin/

Here is the key flaw in that revenge minded approach. It doesn’t solve the people issue in Mexico! Those who are desperate are still desperate! The Tsar and the Dragon are not about creating jobs in Mexico. They could care less! Leverage against the US. Is it worth it? Does it give the Tsar or the Dragon an advantage? Probable the Dragon more than the Tsar. Will it happen? Depends on the Dragon and the Tsar, not Mexico City.

The other option is far…..far ….. more difficult! Clean up the county. Give it a real government. Create a true legal system. Develop a functional Law Enforcement concept. Find local leaders who are only somewhat corrupt. PS. They are all corrupt to some level and that holds true in most parts of the world to include the US. Take down the Drug culture running the nation. Prisons that actually hold real criminals and not just political, social threats like Doctor Mireles! You know….. Rebuild the whole country! Now, as a matter of fact, this “rebuild” theory was started a few years ago with the last two Mexican Presidents, but it was nothing more than media lip service. Good members of the Mexican Police, Military tried, but in the end, the real leadership of Mexico failed again.

Here is the option the Mexican Government cannot move forward on. They cannot agree to the Wall! They can’t do it quietly. They can’t do it publicly. The Wall means only one thing to Mexico. Social pressure! Social pressure that leads to social unrest. An unrest that could and will spread like wildfire throughout Mexico!

Yep. The Wall is an issue, but not just for US Democrats dreaming of changing the voting demographics of the US.

The Wall is an issue of national survival for Mexico.

What actions will a nation take when the words, “National Survival” are used?

Dangerous times could be ahead for you see, when a government feels truly threatened, it will create an enemy that is even more dangerous than the current threat. It will fabricate a threat in a desperate hope to distract the public!