RUSSIAN AMBASSADOR ATTACKED IN TURKEY. A GAME CHANGER FOR THE KURDS?

 Ambassador Karlov was reportedly shot today in Turkey. How this will impact the Russian, Tukey relationship will play out over the next few days, but both sides will have their version of what it means to them.

For the Turks, they will blame the Kurds, regardless of what factional name you may want to give them. To the Turks, the Kurds are the Kurds!

For the Russians, well, it could be a game changer. Upfront, the blame will go to the “Terrorist” the US / West supports, according to the Russians. Blaming the Kurds is harder for the Russians given the Russian support to the Kurds.  Tell the West, “look what you have done”, that is a much better message for the Tsar to pound the table with.

So, the Turks blame the Kurds and the Russians blame the Sunni Radicals, “Terrorist”.  With both sides painting such a rosy picture of their rekindled love, it will be interesting to see whose story gets to stay the lead answer.

One thing is for sure, Egodan will cease this event as yet another battle cry to move against just about any Kurdish organization you can find an acronym for.

In the last few days of the Obama administration, don’t look for anything more than, “We deplore this cowardly act and..so on….and so on…!!!

As for Trump, now that is the key. What changes to the conversation take place? The conversation on what to do with Syria and what to do about the Terrorist groups attached to the sectarian war between the Sunni and the Shia?

Finally. Look for the difference between when a US Ambassador is murdered and when one of the Tsar’s is shot. If Karlov lives or dies is not the issue. The Tsar is a man who doesn’t take such things lightly. The payback will come at some point. 

OBAMA’S THREATS TO RUSSIA…. WHY?

I must admit, I wasn’t completely shocked when I read the story of President Obama threatening action on Russia. It’s not been a good run this last term and he seems to be the kind of guy who can carry a grudge. But……But……openly threatening Russia and doing so over an issue that is weak at best, well, that’s disturbing!

At some point yesterday, someone had to inform the Tsar that the US President, a person the Tsar has absolutely no admiration for, made such a dangerous statement! The way the Tsar would have taken this message is along the lines of, “I’m going to get you….you are going to pay”! Now, to a man such as Putin, a real Killer and someone that is comfortable with aggressive action, that statement simply had to do more damage than we think. Well, perhaps!  

First thing I did late last night was scan the front page of Sputniknews.com, one of the official mouthpieces of the Tsar’s team. It was there I imagined I would find the preliminary response to the US President’s statement. How hard would that response be? That would indicate, to me, just how serious the Tsar took this threat. By this morning, it appeared the initial reaction was along the lines of, “put up or shut up”! Yep, the proverbial shoulder shrug with, “prove it”! Far too often, the smirk on Putin’s face tells the story of where his mind is. I’m willing to bet he has perfected that “smirk”.  It’s a weapon! So, what does this answer, at least the initial response, tell us about how the Tsar perceives this threat from the US? Does the Tsar take this threat seriously? Before I answer that, let me take a minute to give you a few simple rules on making threats.

Rule number one:

Don’t threaten someone or something unless you are absolutely committed to following up on the threat. The Redline incident in Syria should have been the best example for the US President on that rule.

Rule number two:

Never….EVER…threaten someone with witnesses? The average Joe on the streets of the US can go to jail for doing this and almost always, the first thing the arresting Police Officer will tell the suspect is, “You shouldn’t have said that with witnesses”! “Revenge is a dish best served cold”!

Rule number Three:

Be prepared for the counter threat! Escalation! It’s the historical pivot point just prior to nations going to war. Oh, by the way, most of these escalating events are founded in deep stubbornness or people with grudges.  

Okay, enough about the rules. How does the Tsar interpret this threat from President Obama? The initial response was, “put up or shut up”! That message is a message inside of a message. “I don’t care what you think. You don’t have the stones to pick a fight with me”! So, the good news is, if there is good news, the Tsar most likely is not intimidated by the US President’s statement.  Remember, the Tsar’s impression of Obama is more along the lines of Urkel from Family Matters. No respect and thus little fear. Yes, no respect and little fear make a dangerous cocktail! Putin also understands the days of President Obama’s influence are nearly over. I can assure you the Tsar is far more interested in the tension that is taking place between the US intelligence community and the US President Elect. The fact that this tension is based on the same issue, hacking, well, that makes things all the more interesting for the Russians. How does outgoing President Obama react? Not near as important to the Tsar as how inbound President Trump reacts.

Threats! When one nation threatens another, especially two Super Powers, it needs to be in the form of a warning. A warning that some situation, some process is and has become nearly unacceptable. Even at that point, the best execution of such threats is based upon “unofficial” communications and not in the public eye, at least not initially. Once a government has seemingly exhausted all “unofficial” avenues on an issue that creates tension, then they typically will begin the process of informing their public. A prime example of this was the Cuban Missile Crisis. As soon as President Kennedy spoke to the American people, the whole world began to stockpile food and water! Yes, the topic of nuclear weapons is far more frightening than hacking emails, but the American people didn’t even blink after President Obama’s statement! Why? Could it be the President’s own people have the same opinion of him as the Tsar? Do they simply not see the threat of stolen emails, even when the story is wrapped around the hyper inflamed topic of tampering with the US Presidential Elections as something the nation may go to war over? How far removed are the American people from the real fear of war? Not just a few buildings being knocked down by a religious movement, but war….real war? Why did the US President’s words yesterday not send everyone running to stockpile food and water? One Super Power threaten another and nether nation blinked an eye.

What’s really going on here?

To hear Fox News tell the story, this whole thing is all predicated on the fact that Hillary lost. The President and those on the Progressive, Passive left simply can’t come to terms with the idea that Trump won and that damn thing called the Electoral College has screwed them out of control for a second time in 20 yrs. By the way, how brilliant the US Founding Fathers were to put into place such a process? To hear the US Democratic Party logic, all you have to do is win California, New York and Texas and the hell with the rest of the country. Yep. Just take a look at Mexico and see what that will get you. So, is that it? Is that what this is all about? If the Progressive Left in the US can’t come to terms with the way the elections came out, do the push the nation to potential conflict with another Super Power? What else might possibly be going on here?

For well over ten years now, the stories of just how dangerous cyber-attacks could become stacked on top of government reports on how unprepared the US is for such attacks have been placed out there for all to see. Countless stories of massive theft of data, corporate secrets lost, people identify stolen and it goes on and on and on! The US has spent BILLIONS and BILLIONS on defending the nation from “cyber threats”, yet a minute doesn’t go by the nation is not attacked and not just the US but many nations throughout the world. The people of the US have been told how bad it could be and how bad it may get, but do they understand? More importantly, has the US government told the American people the “whole truth”? I happen to know part of that answer, but I will not comment. How bad is this threat becoming? How vulnerable is the US and other nations? Just like all the horror stories the talking heads have been pushing on the news networks, has the threshold been reached? Is the US government to the point they know longer feel they can govern the nation without outside influence? Isn’t that what the accusation is all about? The Russian influenced the Presidential Election? Can someone really flip a switch and turn off society in the US or the rest of the world? Ever seen the movie, Escape from L.A?

Here is the point that scares me the most. The accusation is a dangerous one. The Russians are trying to reshape government of the US. As I said the other day, not new news as it has been going on for decades. It was the baseline for the Cold War. But….but… if this is the message the President of the US is trying to give to the American people, then why did he deliver the message on MPR? Where is the, “Stand by for a special statement from the White House”?

Has the US government hidden how bad the cyber issues have become? Yes!

Has the cyber issue come to the point that two nations, that have the ability to destroy the world, may go to war? No.

The odds are this is exactly what many think it is. It’s one party in the US having a fit that they’ve lost again. But here is the dangerous part. The leader of that party and the nation has decided to blame a very paranoid, methodical world leader who has no gumption for being threatened.  

Perhaps it’s divine intervention the message of “ I’m going to get you” was delivered by Urkel and not John Wayne? 

COFFEE SHOPS AND NUCLEAR WEAPONS! WHAT’S THE LINK?

As I was reading the morning news on events in Iran, I came across this story of yet another raid on Coffee Shops in Iran. In case you didn’t know it, the government of Iran sees Coffee Shops as a key element for malcontents and troublemakers within the youth of their society. Now, here I was looking for general information on one of the more pressing topics the new US President is going to have to deal with, the Iranian Nuclear Program “deal”, but what I found was yet another Coffee Shop raid!

So, is there a connection between Coffee Shop raids in Iran and Trump’s plan for dealing with the Iranian nuclear deal? Well….yes….. or should I say, there should be. You see, it’s not new news, I’ve said that before, that two schools of thought continue on the topic of dealing with Iran. These two “schools” are the same schools that have been the center of decision making on Iran for over twenty years.

School of thought number One:

Passive support to the youth of Iran, such as the Green Party, thus setting up an Arab Spring type of event. The approach is typical of more progressive, passive government and it may have worked if not for one fatal error. An error committed by the Obama administration back in 2009. Never passively support a movement, let them know you “passively” support them and then not show up when it’s game time! That is exactly what happened to the youth of Iran in 2009 and as a consequence their leaders were rounded up and locked away. Their weapons program went into high gear and Iran’s leadership was so paranoid after the events of 2009 when the so called “Arab Spring” showed up in the region, the Iranians hardliners saw this as yet another attempt by the West to destabilize Iran. In fact, they became so convinced the Arab Spring was a Western plot, their commitment to protecting their government convinced them to go on the offenses throughout the region. Yep, some of us truly believe the Persian paranoia over the Arab Spring is a key ingredient as to why the whole region is now in turmoil. They may not watch the NFL, but they do understand, “A good Defense is best supported by a strong Offense”.

School of thought number one was a worthy concept, but the commitment to supporting the  plan must be followed through all the way to the end. Lack a staying power! Ask the Syrian resistance about Obama and this concept. The problem with Progressive, Passive foreign policy…..you can’t have that and weak knees at the same time. 

School of thought number two:

Stick your finger in your opponent’s eye and dare him to do something about it! You know, “You are with us or you are against us”!!!!! Great words at the time, but there was and always is the category of, “I don’t care and I’m not part of this” Now, before I go any further, where the Iranians implicated with the actions of OBL and 9-11? Yes! The statement about the second school of thought is made to simply show a comparison of how taking a hardline is much different than taking a soft approach and nothing more. The fact of the matter was and is, many in the West and particularly the US have an opinion that the hardline is the only line that can be taking with Iran. The reality is school of thought number two has a risk of failure! I’ve made this statement before, but here it goes again. A group inside a nation may not agree with the leadership of that nation, but let someone from the outside threaten the nation as a whole and the dynamics change and change quickly. Why do you think a seated government that is in trouble with its own population will nearly always strive to create an “outside” threat to the nation? Those kids in the Coffee Shops of Iran would love to be more Western, but not at the price of being bombed by the Western militaries. They may not support the “Hardliners”, but they do love their country and the Western track record of being able to separate the two issues is beyond poor!

Trump and the two schools of thought:

What does President Elect Trump do? Can he fined a mix, a hybrid, of the two school of thought? What does he have his team working on? When you look at his actions and some of the comments he’s made, it appears he does seem to have a little of both schools in his approach. You have to ask yourself, “Has that already been tried”? Has a mixture of the two schools been formulated? If you’ve been reading my post on Iran for the past few years, you should recall my comments about the West trying to build an alternative “leader” for Iran. I’ve been sold on the idea for several years now, knowing how some of my old comrades in arms think, of the West approaching an Iranian General and striking a “deal”.  “You assume power and we will quietly support you without making it look as if you were our Puppet”!  Sound crazy? If you know the history of the US and its Allies, you understand this model is not new.

How often does Trump use the word, “deal / deals”? They guy built an empire on making “deals”! He’s Attention Deficit / Hyper Active Disorder all the way. When his team comes to him with a series of options, the process of picking one will not take days or even hours. I’m not sure any decision he will make in the next four years will take hours. He is truly a mixture of school one and school two and as such, any plan that mixes aggressive actions with the possibility of passive support, well, that will look appealing to him. Hold on! There is at least one major flaw with this mixture concept. The Iranian leadership has anticipated this temptation concept for some time now. In a county that is ruled by paranoia, few, if any of its Generals are not suspect. For months now, I’ve watched the names of the Iranian senior leaders who have been killed in Syria and thought to myself, “I wonder if these deaths are the Iranian version of begin sent to the Western Front”? Is there someone approachable? Does the Trump team have a plan that calls for leveraging the lust for power and fame?

In the meantime, the kids inside the Coffee Shops of Iran are watched 24/7/365!  Discontent starts with those who love to hang out at Starbucks!

https://english.alarabiya.net/en/News/middle-east/2016/12/15/Iran-detains-120-people-in-a-coffee-shop-in-downtown-Tehran.html

RUSSIAN HACKING AND THE US ELECTIONS. SAME OLD CAR….JUST NEW PAINT.

So the Russians attempted to manipulate data to influence an event in the US? Is that earth shattering? Is this yet another example of just how devious the Tsar truly is? It makes a great news story for those reporters and listeners who have no clue how events between countries have taken place for thousands of years. Four thousand years ago, the Egyptians and the Chinese manipulated information to influence the opinions and the actions of civilian populations and the truth be known, it was probably going on even before these two great societies were established. The Spanish Inquisition. Now, there is a great example of manipulating information. Radio Free Europe! Who ran that program? What was the overall, strategic purpose? Yep. To destabilize, impact, foreign governments. Tokyo Rose….Ditto! In the 21^st century, does anyone really believe the concept is going to change? What’s the old saying,  “ Information is power”!

In 2016 and beyond, countries are going to continue to refine the weaponization of information. If most of that information is now stored on the worldwide web, then that is where the fight is going to move to, it already has. Why do you think the US and others are spending Billions of dollars on cyber operations? The fact of the matter is, everyone is doing it, but some have fewer restrictions on what their government will allow them to do and that means someone or some nation has and will have the advantage.

The story goes the Russians hacked into private emails that painted a very embarrassing picture of the Democratic Party in the US. Stop to ask yourself one question. Why would the Tsar pick Trump over Hillary Clinton? I will tell you why, because the Tsar and his government were and still are convinced that Hillary Clinton was part of an information campaign to unravel the Tsar’s government. Yep. Hillary was part of an information warfare operation. You can imagine how entertaining I found the accusations against the Russians to be. By the way, Hillary is on record stating she believed the Putin administration should be defeated! Gee, I wonder why the Tsar was out to get her.

Are there boundaries to the concept of information warfare? No. Should elections and the ability to influence elections be placed off limits? No. No, because it would never hold. What happened in the US elections cycle is nothing new. It will happen again. It will happen at the hands of the West, the East and anyone else who sees information that can further their plans.

Here is a bit of advice that I fully believe no politician can ever follow. Don’t send emails that might embarrass you or incriminate you. Did anyone happen to notice the emails that were hacked were never disputed as being factual? Yes, I know towards the end, Hillary’s camp tried to say the emails were forged, but unfortunately for her camp, the ability to show authenticity is well known. How dare someone leak emails that shows how dishonest a politician is!

It’s the 21^st century and the worldwide web, social media are only going to become more complex. The ability to communicate without someone knowing your true intentions is always going to be a risk that will have to be weighed.

In the end, this story is a few thousand years old and something tells me releasing a few emails is going to be seen as child’s play compared to what will happen in the future. 

CHINA AND RUSSIA. PRESIDENT TRUMP MAY JUST  BE A CHESS PLAYER. 

With all the hysteria taking place with the Progressives in the US over the Tsar evidently being responsible for Trump wining the US election, it’s no wonder two very important messages by the new team heading for DC have been overlooked. By the way, the Russians had about as much to do with Trump’s victory as a goat did with keeping the Chicago Cubs out of the World Series for over a hundred years, but Ill address this whole Russian hacking issue in the next few days.

Okay, I stated two significant events have taken place in the past week or so and these two events are clear indications of just how the Trump team is possibly going to play ball. I’m not sure who has picked up on these two events and has tied them together in an effort to understand the Trump doctrine line, but I would be willing to bet a few nations out there have interpreted the message loud and clear.

Taiwan:

The liberal based media in the US almost screamed on air when the story of the now famous phone call broke. Democrats rushed to the news podium to get their 15 sec of fame by declaring Trump was breaking long standing protocol. You know, the same politician that spend every election talking about all the “change” they are going to bring to DC. “He’s going to anger the Chinese”. “He’s ignorant on Foreign Policy”. “He doesn’t know what he is doing”! Really? Did the man not say from day one he was going to take a hard, but fair stance on international trade? Never the less, for several days after this phone call event, all one could hear or read in Western media was how Trump was already “rocking the boat” and how it was going to lead to dangerous actions with the Dragon. Progressives were still running around in circles screaming over the phone call event stopping only long enough to talk about how the Tsar had rigged the elections when the next “message” from Trump was placed on the world’s  table.

Mr. Tillerson :

What? Good grief! All Trump is doing is taking care of his Billionaire Friends. Why….the whole county is going to be run by Billionaires under Trump; as if it’s not already so. If you tuned into US news last week, this is basically the story line you would have heard. Even some of the professionally entrenched Republicans pulled out the Tsar card once again. “Why….this man is a friend of Putin…..he even got an award by Putin”! Remember what I said the other day about the Twin Brothers….Ignorance and Arrogance?   

So, what are these two messages and what are the expectations for response? What is Trump up to here?

In the case of Taiwan, I’ve read a few folks who have caught on to the concept of Trump starting his negotiations on trade from a stance of, ‘If you don’t work with me, then I’ll openly support twain”. Now, he’s not come right out and stated that, at least I don’t think he has, but the message is clear. He is going to take a hard stance and then give himself some room for compromise. Yep. If you are in Taiwan, don’t start wearing Trump T-shirts just yet.

What made Trump believe he could start the process with the Dragon from such a hard stance? Isn’t the rest of the world supposed the hide under the table when it comes to the topic of trade with China? Why, if you make them mad, they will call in your debt and you will be ruined. If they decide to stop selling to you, you will no longer reap the benefits of Child Labor or Force Labor Camp products. You might actually have to pay union made, union level pay, products. Your IPhone might cost 3 thousand dollars and not be free with your two year subscription with AT@T.  Bottom line, don’t anger the Dragon. Let him have his way and it will all be ok. Wrong, but a nice, progressive, passive viewpoint defended on the campuses of the West.

Here is what I think Trump realizes and now is the time for me to say something I’ve been holding back on saying about the Dragon for a long time. It’s ok to kick sand in the face of the Dragon! It can’t afford to fly over your village and burn it to the ground. Here is the dark little secret that most of the Chinese leadership actually understands. Years ago, the Chinese George Washington, Moe, made a comment about going to nuclear war with the West. I won’t quote his statement word for word, but his point was this. In the morning, a Chinese man gets up and goes to a well to get water. In the morning, a Western man gets his water from the faucet. The day after a nuclear war with China, the Chinese man still goes to the well to get water. The Western man has no water and no way to get water. His point was this. The West has more to lose than China and thus, the West will not go to nuclear war with China. My oh my, how times have changed, well, maybe! A little over 30 years ago, the Chines came up with the idea of building a military that could stand up to the West and they would build this military by developing an economic model that mirrored Western Capitalism.  Goods that would be made by the massive Chinese population would be sold around the world at prices so cheap, everyone would buy them. As time went on the amount of capital the Chinese would take in would pay for a massive military buildup. You see, at some point, the Dragon adopted Lenin’s philosophy, “The West will sell us the rope we will hang them with”! The Dragon would rise to become the world power based on cheap toys. Well, it worked! But, my favorite action took place. Yes, “The Law of Unintended Consequences”.  In the process of building this economic engine to power the military buildup, the population of China benefited.  Good old fashion greed and self-fulfillment also took root in China’s society. The profits were so good, they were too good! Yes, over 500 million people in China still go to that well Moe spoke of, but the people who make the country work, the ones that built the economic engine the military needed and still needs, they have a lifestyle that they have grown accustom to. Burning down everything they have and all their dreams over the sake of Taiwan, well, that is the question. In the 21^st century China, the internet, and social media has the people who run that economic machine communicating with about 3 billion other people in the world. Social stability in China is China’s number one concern. The concept of expending commercial goods on Chines citizens and not just selling everything to the rest of the world has everything to do with keeping the masses happy in China. That process has been underway for over two years now and anyone who is watching knows what China is really worried about. Its own people, that’s what! If you want a poster child for a land of ‘haves and have-nots” China is place. Sorry Moe, but the Dragon can no longer simply go back to the well the day after a nuclear war with the West and the idea of having to do that may just see the government tossed out by 500 million protesters.

This is a storyline Trump may understand. It may be a story line that he has been briefed on. People who understand how this all works, people like Henry Kissinger, are still out there; not many, but they are. Bring the Chinese to the table and tell them it is time for fair trade, balanced trade and non-manipulated currency and let’s see what takes place.  Yes, this is not a Foreign Policy, bureaucratic standpoint, but Trump is not a Bureaucrat. He is a businessman.

Now, I am fully aware the Dragon may not like this initial stance, but the messenger is handpicked, Brandstad, and he is one that knows the Dragon well. Let’s see how the first round of talks go. Speaking of messengers that know the players, let’s move on to the next topic.

Mr. Tillerson knows Putin, but stop to think about what that really means. What is the Center of Gravity for the Russian Empire and the dreams of its Tsar? Fuel! Fuel is more of a leverage point for the Russians than all of their nuclear weapons combined, weapons that can’t be used for anything other than revenge.  Just how many deals do you think have taken place over the years between Gazprom and Exxon? Just imagine the conversations that between the two companies. Gazprom does what Putin wants it to do and Gazprom is just as important to him as his military. Where are the dope deals? Who made them? Where are the skeletons buried? What are the weaknesses of the Russian fuel industry and how can they be leveraged? Who would know these things better than Exxon? If you know the oil / gas / industry, then you know there are no real “rules” as to how business is done and what pockets need to be filled. Believe me when I tell you, Mr. Tillerson is a brilliant move by Trump. I would have loved to have been in the room when someone walked in and informed the Tsar that Tillerson was on Trump’s radar for Secretary of State. He’s a “friend” yes! But, he is the friend that knows way….way…too much about you and your past! There are parts of the world were politicians don’t run the show. In this part of the world, the politician show up, line their pockets and leave. This part of the world is run by the fuel industry and Exxon and Gazprom rule that part of the world.

Fuel is the life blood of Russia and Mr. Tillerson knows what blood type the Tsar has.

This is going to be interesting as long as the idiots in the US House don’t turn Tillerson into a typical party on party pissing match. He is absolutely the right choice! The Tsar is the most dangerous man in the world and the most cunning. Priority one for Trump needs to be figuring out how to work with the Tsar.

Okay. This two message theory of mine has a dangerous side. Anger. Both the Dragon and the Tsar may not take kindly to the new US President coming out of the box so cunningly. Frankly, the world is use to clueless US Presidents for the past few decades and someone who at the surface seems to be thinking ahead of the game, well, that is something new.

There will be no World Apology Tour in January of 2017. There will be no mindless drive to force Western Democracy on everyone in the rest of the world. The US may, just may, finally have a Chess Player and he is about to sit down at the table and tap the clock! 

RUSSIA’S UPDATED FOREIGN POLICY STRATEGY.  HINTS OF CHANGE?

Yet another example of an important event taking place that just seems to have slipped by the major networks took place two weeks ago. Honestly, It wasn’t until a few days ago, when I was reading this article, that I realized the Tsar had released his countries’ updated Foreign Policy Strategy.

Now, you might ask, “so what”? Why should the average Joe on the street care what this document states? Well, if you like seeing dramatic events take place on the major news networks as you tilt you head like a dog hearing a loud noise, if you like having a major event explained to you because some 30 year old Blond with spiked heels and a slit dress is translating the event for you, our you wait for the plastic hair looking political leader to scramble for airtime in order to look important / gain votes / after a two minute brief from one of their staffers, then simply stop reading what I am about to say. If you are just a little inquisitive as to how your world may be impacted by major events, then let’s travel on.

Major Policy documents by dominant powers in the world, such as this one, are scrutinized long before they are officially released.  A virtual legion of analyst, from multiple countries are assigned to track documents like this one twenty-four hours a day, 365 days out of the year. What is going to be said, what does certain statements “really mean”? These are the questions that billions of dollars are allocated towards with the single goal of finding the most accurate answers. By the time the actual documents are released, the typical reaction is, did it say what everyone anticipated it would say? Just how good was the intelligence community that worked on the project?  

Two schools of thought:

1.       These documents are gospel!

They announce to the world the absolute intent of the nation that released it.  They provide a window into the inner workings of those who call the shots. They are often filled with “hidden meanings….. Subliminal messaging….words between the words”!!!! Hint. This is the area the intelligence community lives for. The geeky guys and girls who have spent their whole lives studying the people who draft the documents. The ones that know the name of the Tsar’s first dog and his second grade teacher’s maiden name. Hollywood loves to portray these folks in just about every government based thriller.

Industry thrives on these documents. Billions or even Trillions of dollars are influenced by what these documents state. The Defense Industry and their Lobbyist spend almost as much time preparing for this level of document as the intelligence industry does and as a matter of fact, if you are about to leave the intelligence industry and want to find a home with the private industry, just show your value by supporting one of the concepts that will be pithed based on the findings of the document. From the industry standpoint, the ability to secure the next generation gadget is based on two issues. One, classified intelligence that shows research and  production and second, documents that state what strategic direction the nation claims they are heading. We must have the new widget given the enemy clearly states they are going to utilize the concept of the widget. The Arm’s Race concept in a very simplistic viewpoint.

2.      These documents are not worth the paper they are written on!

Some see this level of documentation as nothing more than a ploy or even worse, disinformation. Make a few bold statements about what you intend on doing and then watch to see how your enemy reacts. Can you get your enemy to expend billions on concepts that are worthless? Once again, one of the favorite concepts for the intelligence community. Are the statements true if so, what can they find to back them up? Again, billions are spent on trying to determine if the statements are factual or are they a ploy?

Do nations actually follow what they put on paper? Are these documents truly a guideline for what they intend on doing or are they simply required homework, the next is a series of episodes that have a timeline for production? You know, are they simply going through the motions? Imagine how confusing it would be if a nation wrote several of these over a period of time and never followed half of what they said, oh ya, that is usually what happens, and then suddenly they make some dramatic change in strategy? The opposition intelligence community would have a nervous breakdown. With all the overanalyising that takes place mixed in with political leveraging for prestige or party positioning, how is it that any nation can truly determine if a strategic document is worthy of reacting to?

Hugely complex and astronomically important to fiscal expenditure, a Foreign Policy Strategy release by the Russians is vital to every nation that looks across the table at the Tsar. Why did this topic not come up in the past two weeks? Well, in DC the thought process is the common Joe on the Street doesn’t care and wouldn’t understand and even worse…… they are not capable of understanding.   If you disagree, pull this document of the internet and read it and then you decide what it means to you.

http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2016/12/middle-east-russia-foreign-policy-strategy.html

WITH THE US SANCTIONS ON IRAN TO CONTINUE, WHAT ARE IRAN’S OPTIONS?

As usual, the news and events of the world continue to move at an every quickening pace. As I have said before, this pace makes it extremely easy to overlook key events that are not wrapped in blood or bombs or scandal….you know… the key ingredients Western Media looks for. “Like the song said, “Get the Widow on the set”!

So, the US has extended the sanctions on Iran? Not sure the common Joe in the US knows are cares, but most do think the nuclear weapons deal was a bad move. The Republican held House and Senate absolutely thought so and still do. Even several of the middle of the road Democrats, not many of them left, agreed. But in the end, with all the others events taking place in the US, the story of these sanctions being extended for ten more years, well, it never grabbed anyone’s attention, in the US that is.

The Iranian perspective:

Did anyone in DC really think through the impact the decision to continue the sanctions would have on the pending Iranian elections? I would hope so, but then again, it is DC.

Did anyone rationalize the move to continue the sanctions might strengthen the standing of the “Hardliners” in Iran; as if the “Moderates” were some Liberal group of thinkers?  Probably and if so, what logic did they apply to the process? My bet is this was yet another round of, “let’s defy what the White House wants to do and not really contemplate the second and third order effects of our actions. Okay, before you start twitching, no I do not support the Obama Administration’s stance on the nuclear deal with Iran. It was a disaster and a ploy by the Iranians from day one. What the US ended up with is both sides of the political spectrum making poorly thought out decisions.  

Can the Iranians really afford to walk away from the deal? No. To openly announce continuation of their program, something they are doing anyway, would bring them that much closer to devastation at the hands of the IDF. As I have said time and time again, never ever believe that Israel will ask for permission to attack Iran’s program.

Are the outcomes of the pending elections really open to external influence?  Doesn’t Khamenei and his gang actually control who runs? That might be why DC decided to move forward. What does it matter? Again, let’s hope that DC utilized that much brain matter on the decision.  By the way, with the turmoil in the quest for power in Iran, post Khamenei, the absolute control of how the voting may go could be questionable. Yep, there is a chance the crisis in Iran is deeper than we know. You see, it’s no longer about “Hardliners” or “Moderates”. It’s about who the next Khamenei is going to be.

What options do the Iranians have? Like I said earlier, they can’t just walk away from the agreement, but, they have other options. Shia militias, controlled / supported / by Iran are now operational in Syria, Iraq, Lebanon and Yamen and their ability to destabilize the GCC is always on the table.  I just have to wonder if they anticipated the move by the US from the very beginning. If so, then the “actions” they claim they may take have been well thought out. As a reminder, they never intended to live by this agreement to begin with.

Changes:

With the reality of the Iranian nuclear agreement coming back into play, we should ask ourselves, “Has anything changed”? Well, the leadership in the US has changed and changed dramatically. The involvement of the Russians in the region has “Changed” almost as dramatically as the US leadership. The Iranian involvement, open involvement, in the region has changed is a dramatic manner. So, not only has there been “Change”, there has been widespread, dramatic change!

What does all of this “Change” mean for the agreement? Oh, did I mention how distracted the European members of the initial negotiation team have become? My hunch is, the issue of the Iranian nuclear program is going to rise to nearly the top of the “ need to do something” list for the inbound US President.

Yep, this story just kind of slipped on by a few weeks ago, but I have a feeling the topic is heading back to the front page sooner than many realize.

http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2016/12/iran-council-monitoring-jcpoa-nuclear-deal-isa-reaction.html