ATTACK ON THE UN AID CONVOY AND A BLIND DOG!

As I was reading the Russian reaction to the aid convoy attack in Syria, I couldn’t help but come to one conclusion. Sometimes, when you have a scripted answer ready for something that you know will be traced back to you, you need to remember to stick to the story the way you told it the first time.

An age old trick of any Law Enforcement member is to ask someone the same question several times, especially after you have added more information. Did the story change? Did the explanations deviate? If so, then the preverbal, “I thought you said……” takes place!  It’s a timeless approach that has worked for thousands of years and today, it worked again! My question is, how could the Russian fall for the biggest investigative trick in the book?

When first confronted with the accusation of being involved with the attack on the UN aid convoy, the Russian response was along the lines of, “we didn’t do it…..we don’t know what you are talking about”.

Funny, when someone thinks they are about to be caught in criminal act with words like, “War Crime” attached, the propensity  to not hold fast on the story line almost becomes commonplace.

Before the Russian answer of “we didn’t do it” could circle the globe on the web, the next phase of their rebuttal was released and that leads back to my point about being careful to stick to the script.

“We have examined the evidence and have come to the conclusion no ballistic weaponry was used”?

What? So the Russians didn’t bomb the convoy and no ballistic weapons were used?

“It appears the damage came from a fire”?

What? Now that is a great deal of analysis, but then again, Russia is a very advanced nation.

Next up……, “The Terrorist did it”. Again, getting of script. Oh and by the way, the other age old rule of being interviewed by law enforcement applies here as well. “Saying less is always…..always better than saying too much”!!!!! 

Now, before that explanation could be contemplated, the US played the typical law enforcement trick…..yep…..more information……information that didn’t even need to be true!

When the US made the official statement they had data that showed the Russians were involved based on classified flight data gathered over Syria, well, that really got the Russians off balance.  Lord knows they are forever worried about the world thinking the US / West / has superior technology. The US was about to show the world the visual proof of where Russian aircraft were during the attack. It had to be true, they were about to truly expose the fact the Russians did it!!!! That is what the leaders in Moscow were overwhelmed by.

Ok, the story needed to change again and it needed to change quickly.

Hot of the internet press of Sputnik! “The convoy had Terrorist imbedded in its movement”!  This time though, the pictures were Russian in origin and why wouldn’t they be? Does anyone think the Russians would not monitor the convoy as it moved?

It was at this point I realized for the first time in the whole Russian / Syrian involvement the West / US / actually had the Russians off balance! Here is the problem. Did the US realize it? The Russian were actually looking foolish and I had to wonder who was answering to the Tsar because of it?

So, the convoy was trailed / imbedded / with Rebels, Freedom Fighters / Terrorist…it’s all perspective!

Ok, so, who attacked the convoy?

Where the Russians going to say the US did it? Was it a going to be a repeat of last week’s storyline of the attack on the Syrian Army?  

Wait, it’s the Russians who accuse the West / US / of supporting the “Terrorist”?

Why would the US attack the very group they were supporting? Why would they attack the UN aid convoy their Secretary of State had worked so hard to support?

Was the feud between the US pentagon and the US Department of State part of this disaster?

Funny I should mention it that way, given the Russians didn’t think of that pitch, at least until they read this post!

Well, once again the Russian line on the event changed and by now, it was making them looked foolish!

Did the US have proof the Russian were to blame? It could very well be. If something flies over Syria, it’s being watched, recorded, and documented. Yes, that technology bogyman is real!

Assumption time:

The Russians may have told the Syrians to not attack the UN aid convoy and they did it anyway. Barrel bomb out of helicopters, that’s the storyline most experts are going with. Eyewitnesses are key to this part of the story.

So, did the Russians get caught off guard by the very idiot they are backing?

Most likely.

It would explain why a well thought out, scripted storyline could not be followed by Moscow.

If that is true, and the Russians know they have to make a choice between being told they are responsible for an attack on UN relief members and admitting Syria conducted the attack without Russian approval, then the Tsar is going to have to clean this mess up and that will cost someone a great deal.

Let me leave you with two additional even scarier thoughts!

1.       The Russians did know about the attack, even with the repercussions at the UN level. PS… The UN thinks the Russians knew!

2.      The Syrian government did tell the Russians and took uncoordinated action! Assad knows the Tsar well and to think his commanders would put him in that situation, well, we shall see what takes place then.

Finally; here is the most amazing part of this whole story, a story that is lost in the events of yet another Lone Wolf event in the US. 

The Tsar was off his game! The Russians were locked in amateur hour with the whole region watching.

The saddest part of that story is the fact the US is too clueless, too consumed with what Trump or Hillary said today about the bombings in New York, Refugees and what not, that nobody outside a few in the intelligence arena understand the opportunity lost with the Russian debacle.

As the saying goes, even a blind dog finds a bone every once and a while!

Looks like the US didn’t find this one! 

MERKEL AND THE REEMERGENCE OF A GERMANY ALL OF EUROPE FEARS. WELL…ALMOST EVERYONE!

As I was reading the election results from Germany and the comments by their Dreamer in Chief, Merkel, I was once again fascinated by the continuing crisis that is unfolding throughout Europe.

A few days ago, I once again brought up the topic of just how masterfully the Tsar was executing his European realignment plan. By the way, if you are not sold on Mr. Putin being able to manipulate the events taking place in Europe, then you may want to stop here and go read something else.

Merkel’s statement on the migration disaster she has brought about in Germany is just another chapter in the Tsar’s Master Plan. As I stated in the past, the concept of flooding Europe with a human wave from the Middle East, along with a few Terrorist here and there, executed like clockwork. The simultaneous credibility attack on NATO, coupled with the crisis of its second largest military member, Turkey, has pushed the people of Germany away from Merkel’s camp even further.

That’s not to say many Germans and other Europeans are still not aligned more along the lines of passive, liberals, but the fact of the matter is, the swing to the right is taking place all over Europe and the dismal showing of Merkel’s party is the smoking gun of proof.

Now, why would Putin want a more conservative, pro-European / anti-immigration block to come into power throughout Europe? Well, ask yourself this. Why would he not? Would this mean a more nationalistic movement in Europe would be less pro Russian? Would hardliners taking power in Europe not see eye to eye with a hardline Russian nation?

What would happen if in the next phase of the Tsar’s plan, a theme of “Europe and Russia” against immigration and non-European Continent medaling became the message?

Is it impossible to think that hardline thinkers will not find a more common ground with other hardline thinkers?

If you can’t buy this concept, then can you accept a Tsar who would have a plan to destabilize Europe to the point the only true savior they could turn to is Mother Russia? 

Putin is out to change the future of Europe, something several other Tsars fantasized of doing from the safety of Moscow. 

Setting in motion the collapse of the current government of Germany would absolutely be a key objective for any plan to change Europe.

Why? Why Germany? Why not France, Italy, Denmark, ect….ect…..?

If you have to think about the answer to that question, then the past 100 years of world history is not known to you.

Germany!

A new far right Germany is a distinct possibility and the fear that would bring to the rest of Europe is undeniable.

Again, who might the rest of Europe turn to?

England? Have you read the sentiment towards England in the EU lately? Not good and for good reason. Those English inconsiderate citizens won’t help pay for the EU’s social redistribution dreams?

The US? A nation with a foreign policy lost at sea and far too occupied with internal “issues” to execute a comprehensive policy towards Europe. I don’t think so.

Who will provide cover from an emerging Germany, a Germany whose citizens are tired of paying the bills for “lazy Europeans”?  By the Way, a mindset that is growing by the day in France as well.

Europe is in trouble, real trouble and the Tsar is out to change the direction of the continent.

Other Tsars dreamed of having such an impact on Europe. They dreamed of Europe knocking on the door in Moscow and asking for help. Yes. Just as Europe did in 1913 when the Germans were on the move and all of Europe needed the Russians to spill Russian blood to buy Europe time.

These are interesting times and Europe’s legacy is not being determined by just the liberal governments of the EU.

MEXICO AND THE ARGUMENT OVER CHILDHOOD FAIRY TAILS

A few years ago, I started a separate blog site that addressed events in Mexico. I had been “observing”, a very nice way to put it, events in Mexico for several years prior to starting this open forum discussion, but when the phenomenon of the “Autodefensas” appeared in  Michoacán,  I decided it was time to start exposing the dangers this movement could bring to the US and the region.

I won’t go back over what I posted then, but I have added the link to the old blog site.

Having said that, I do think it’s important to have a refresher / review of what is taking place and why. After doing so, it will be much easier to stay current on what is taking place.

As I stated a few days ago, this whole concept goes back to the issue of taking a more asymmetric look at events in the world than I have accomplished in the past with this site.

Ok, in the shortest and easiest way practical, here is an explanation of what an Autodefensa is and how they came about. How they have been manipulated by both the government of Mexico and the drug lords, sadly one is often associated with the other, will be a topic in for review in the near future.

Again, tonight, I will keep this simple and then as time goes on, I will dive into the issue of Mexico at a much more complicated level.

What is an Autodefensa?

Short answer, it’s an organization, the real ones, of Mexican citizens who have lost all confidence in their government at local, state and federal level. Mexican Citizens who have lost confidence not just in common day to day governance, but in the moral compass and legal authority all government must provide. Mexican Citizens who have convinced themselves that the only way their families and communities can find any level of safety is by defending themselves. Again, this is an issue of not just weak government, but complete corrupt government!

Without going back over old post, let me just make the point that when segments of a society, based on geographic location, take up arms to form their own “governance”, then the nation they belong to is far more destabilized than most of us realize.

Mexico is “destabilized” and all the clever speeches from the US administration cannot cover this up.   “Out of sight, out of mind” is not a tactic that will work forever. The violence in Mexico is not the only issue the US seems able to ignore.

Why should these Autodefensa groups be so alarming to the US? Decay, they are clear indicators of the decay of Mexico.

Now, the Mexican government has been a real campaign to neutralize the impact of these Autodefensa movement and it fact, they have worked harder at limiting their impact then they have responding to the drug world that controls Mexico, but then again, there is a reason why; hence the world I used, “control”.

Autodefensa groups absolutely disrupt and discredit the moral standing of the Mexican Government and in the end, the economic impact is their primary concern.

Look at this issue from this perspective. Imagine a group of farmers and Ranchers driving into Del Rio Texas and stating, they were going to be in charge of all legal matters for the area given the current local government was too corrupt to be trusted. Woops…. It seems that does take place in certain parts of the US! Hmmmmm.  Just how stable is the US? Ok, back to my point and by the way, the level of civil control of the Mexican Autodefensa groups is far more overt than any “group” in the US.

What would be the world’s opinion of the US if groups of armed men and women just started banding together in rural areas and even arrested the local political leadership and law enforcement?  Just think what the conversations must have been in Mexico City when these initial Autodefensa groups started to take shape nearly five years ago?

Mexico is on shaky ground and yes, I know most of the people I’ve worked with always come back with the same old line, “Mexico is always on shaky ground…..It’s Mexico”! 

The argument given to me from those in DC was, and I am sure still is, “ Dan….you are Chicken Little. The sky is always falling in Mexico…relax”!

Well, my rebuttal then was the same as it is now. “If we are going to play childhood nursery rhyme games, let’s try a different one. Let’s try the Mexican version of Humpty Dumpty”!

My eyes are back on Mexico as I truly believe some of West greatest threats continue to see Mexico as a great weakness for the US.

More to follow on this topic.

http://www.borderlandbeat.com/2016/09/the-fake-peace-of-michoacan.html

http://coldansviewpointmexico.blogspot.com/

U.S STRIKE ON SYRIAN FORCES. A 2016 VERSION OF FAIL SAFE?

Ok, my answer right up front, just in case you don’t have time to read the whole post tonight.

A mistake? Tactically yes.

A mistake strategically? Well, what else should we expect?

Tactically, the miss identification of armored targets inside an air, kill box, should almost be expected in a conflict such as Syria.

Syrian forces recognition processes are primitive compared to the complex battlefields US forces are trained to work within.

Syrian units, armor are not going to have “Identification / Friend / Foe” electronics.

A fighter package at 20,000 ft, or higher, is most often relying on ground support to validate targets.

If  the Rebels / Freedom fighters/ take your pick, whatever group the US is supporting, are not providing this target information, then the odds of striking a location that appears very similar to the “supported” location is more than just a concern. It’s a distinct possibility.

Tactically, a poorly coordinated Kill Box area has a high likelihood of disaster!

At the end of the day, the USAF assets in this event are controlled by the finest Airforce in the world and if mistakes were made, they will be reviewed in mindboggling detail and documented. You can bank on that.

Ok, now for the strategic analysis of this event and that is a far more complex issue than the tactical mistake.

From the very beginning of the Syrian phase of the Middle Eastern Crisis, yes it’s not just about Syria, the US has been more than just “lost” in its policy on the subject. The US has been both wrong and bullheaded!

Now, I will be the first one to admit, the US has had a dismal vision and attitude towards that part of the world for far longer than the rule of the current administration. But, just when you might think I was letting the current administration off the hook, sorry, they have made the issue far worse. The US may have had an archaic approach to the region for decades, but the current administration has been a complete disaster and at just the most critical moment in time! But,

Not only has the Tsar chosen to take the center stage of issues in the region, the US handed that stage over to him long before this latest so called “Ceasefire” was “agreed to”!  

Rumors have flown for some time now over the issue of the “disconnect” between the US Defense Department and the US State Department. Let me stop here just long enough to recognize one of the key figures in the US amateur hour “leadership Team”. John Kerry! I could address his actions for pages, but let me just leave it at this. He’s an idiot…..period!!!!

So, what was this so called ceasefire to be based upon? What was the core issue the Russian’s wanted as we remind ourselves they had and have everything going the Tsar’s way!

Information. Information on the locations and operational actions of the US backed “Rebel / Freedom fighters”.  Information the US department of defense knows would lead to a treasure trove of how the US conducts both overt and covert, clandestine support operations. Simply put, the baseline for the ceasefire was data that would have severely damaging consequences for the US military and the nation as a whole. The level of information required by the Russians was and is so critical to the US, the entire gambit of data is surly conducted at the Top Secret, compartmentalized / SCI / level. Now, you may remember another US Department of Sate senior office who seemed to unconcerned about this level of data……. You know………….the one running for President!

Ok, this is getting too complicated and my mind is running down paths that will make this whole post somewhat boring. Let me stick to what matters here.

The bottom line is, the US Department of Defense and the US Department of State are at odds over what should take place in Syria. Not a new phenomenon, but that is no excuse for what is taking place.

The US President seems more than conflicted on how to solve this debate. Perhaps he is too concentrated on helping his parties’ candidate than on his own administration crumbling at the feet of the Tsar. Remember, he has Kerry to work these matters. Never mind Carter is one of the most technically proficient people to have worn the title of Secretary of Defense in decades.  

The fact of the matter is the US has gone so long without having a working policy for the region, another failed pipedream for Syria is just what the pubic expected!

So, what happened today? What brought about this “mistake” the Whitehouse has already taken a knee on?

Reluctance!

Here is my hunch. The US Department of State informs the US Department of Defense to “ cooperate” with the Russians. The US Department of Defense, being run by true professionals, carries out the order of their Commander in Chief and “works” to some level the Russians. In the process of doing so, the US Defense Department expresses it’s “concerns” on certain issues to their Commander in Chief. The US Commander in Chief, not having an idea of the complexity of the military’s concerns, agrees to let the Department of Defense “figure out what is the correct level of cooperation”.

Why do I believe this is the true? Look at the reaction of the Russians over the past week. What have they been ranting about? “The US is not living up to its commitments for the ceasefire”!

Are the Russians telling the truth? Yes.

Why is the US not “living up to its commitments”? Because those commitments were agreed upon by the US Department of State, not the US Department of Defense, the two agencies that have not been on the same page for the past several years!

One team, one fight? Not lately!

Today was yet another amateur hour event for the US administration when it comes to Syria, but the real bad news is, it’s just what the Tsar was looking for. 

NORTH KOREA. THAT CAN WE KEPT KICKING…WELL…HAS A DRAGON ATTACHED!

A few days ago, when I spoke about reopening this blog site, I mentioned one of my goals was to provide my Sons a better understanding of the world around them. As I said then, my focus would remain on the Middle East, but I am going to make a diversion to other parts of the world more often than I did in the past five years. So, here we go………Away from the Middle East tonight…well… somewhat!

In 1994 President Bill Clinton, perhaps soon to be “First Husband” of the U.S., made a hard decision that all of us knew would come back to haunt the rest of the world down the road!

North Korea was on the verge of a nuclear weapons program and everyone knew it. The tension rose to a level that rumors of pending conflict reached the evening news. The US President sent a very aggressive message with a robust show of military force and the fear of warfare had South Korea nearly in gridlock.

It seemed North Korea was actually willing to take the whole issue right to the edge of actual conflict. To make a long story short, nobody was backing down! Not the US, not North Korea, not South Korea. As for China? Well, I’m not sure we will ever know what real pressure the Dragon applied or did not apply.

In 1994, in the end, it was the West / US / that blinked and that “blink” was the preliminary act that has   now set stage for the current round of drama in the region.

Was it just President Clinton who botched this entire issue of North Korean nuclear weapons? No.   That kick the can concept was carried on by the next two administration as well; well make that three actually!

Over the past few years, I’ve commented on this whole issue of North Korean nukes and the relationship this program has with much larger issues in the world.

For years, North Korea was the wildcard the Dragon could unleash on the Korean Peninsula and just the thought of doing so gave the Dragon just what it needed; leverage! 

There has also been the reoccurring theory, one I totally agree with, of a “relationship” between North Korea and the Persians. As I posted a few years ago, what better way to text a design without having the IDF raining hell down on you then to have your “partner” work the project? Yes….. believe it!

Did the US know this happening or believe this might be taking place? Most likely. But, remember, once you start playing kick the can, it’s difficult to suddenly stopped and say, “lets solve this”. Kick the can is a great political tool when the alternative is just too difficult to figure out. “Maybe it will get better with time”.  Or, the more politically popular, “kick the issue down the street until my turn at the helm is over”.  In the U.S Army, the nickname for this concept is, “action passed is an action solved”.

As the North Korean can was tumbling along, the US and its Allies miscalculated yet again. Why would the Dragon allow its chained wild dog to obtain something that might upset the whole “Master Plan” for the region? A Master Plan designed by China. The false assumption on the part of the US was that China would be opposed to a nuclear armed North Korea. The threat to regional peace would simply be too high.  Wrong! Dead wrong!

Here is the concept that the US missed or just didn’t want to face, yep; part of that kicking the can!

Let me start by saying, if the Dragon didn’t want North Korea to have a nuclear weapons program, they wouldn’t have one! A process as complex and lengthy as the one the North Koreans have been involved in cannot happen without support. Support from friends and complacency from enemies. The perfect combination.

Why? Why would the Dragon want North Korea to have nukes?

In the past few years, I’ve entertained two theories. For the sake of time, I will keep the details to a minimum, but if you are curious, go back and search this blog site. I’ve spoken to both theories with great detail the past.

A.     In the eyes of the Dragon, a nuclear North provokes a regional conflict the Dragon has formulated. At the end of this pending conflict, the primary reason for the US being militarily deployed in the region is void. The only excuse they have left is confronting the Dragon itself and after a world crisis such as war with North Korea would create, the taste for such a follow on event would simply not exist in the West. Yes, the Dragon knows the 21^st century Western Citizen has no staying power. Look at the US today compared to just fifteen years ago. A Chines concept of temporary loses/ acceptable losses is far different than any ideology in the US.

B.     Has the Dragon designed a plan that forces the US and its Allies to fight at opposite sides of the world? Hence, the relationship between North Korea and Iran. If you don’t believe that relationship exist, then you are not digging deep enough. A shared weapons research program and an agreement that I have nicknamed, “If you go, I go”.

In both cases, the same conclusion can be made. The Dragon supports the development of nuclear weapons by North Korea. When the dust settles, who is left standing? Who is the regional power those traumatized but such a war in the region will be willing to reach out to? Yep. The Dragon!

So you see, the US has kicked a can the Chinese needed to be kicked.

The time for a regional showdown in the Pacific was not 1994 or even 2001 when the North was tossed into the bucked of “Access of Evil”.

Whatever is taking place with North Korea is more than just the actions of a fat little mad man.

The strings of the North Korean puppet are still attached to the Dragon’s wings! 

DESTROYING OLD FRIENDSHIPS AND THE CRIPPLING OF A NATO PARTNER

When I finished writing about the recent events in Turkey yesterday, I overlook one very important issue that needs to be addressed. I guess this happened given I was preoccupied with reviewing the strategic “Big Picture”.

Well, let me make an attempt to rectify that oversight!

As I have stated in the past, it is my opinion one of the primary goals of the Tsar is the neutralization or even dismantling of NATO. His actions over the past several years have given so many indicators of this tact, it’s impossible to believe the big thinkers in DC or London or Germany don’t understand what is taking place.

What is the latest example of this NATO neutralization plan?

Turkey and the utter destruction of the Turkish Military’s leadership, that’s what!

I’m not sure how many people outside the leaders of NATO leadership truly comprehend what EgoDan did to his own military Command and Control in the days following the attempted Coup in July.

If you are not comfortable with the complex dynamics of effectively controlling or deploying a force as large and as technical  as the Turkish military, then let me paint a simplistic picture for you.

In the days following the attempted Coup, EgoDan order the arrest and most of the senior leadership of the Turkish Military. Those that were not rounded up by the state police, were paralyzed with fear and for good reason.

These sweeps were carried out down to the operational, unit level and were accomplished with very little analysis of what condition the military would be left in after the fact. Actually, neutralizing the militaries ability to function was EgoDan’s goal and his desired outcome was more successful than most of us realize!

Could the Turkish military defend the “Homeland”? Yes, but the concept of Combined Arms I am sure, “Combat Ineffective”. For those of you that are not up to speed on military doctrine, “combat Ineffective” means a unit cannot function at the level required to carry out its combat mission.

As a matter of fact, substantiated “rumors” flowed everywhere that the Turkish Military was “offline” as far as NATO Command was concerned. Those Turkish leaders who were left had no ability to coordinate the unified movement of the Turkish military as a whole. The truth is, they still can’t!

Simply put, the capability to function as a major member of the NATO force is “offline”!

Now, would NATO leadership admit to this? No! Why would they?

Can you rip the key leaders out of a NATO military to the level EgoDan did and be “Combat Ready”? No!

How long will it take to backfill capable leaders in all the key positions? My best guess is at least two to three years. It will take two to three years to build the combat leadership skills back into the Command and Control nodes of the Turkish military and that is only based upon those who were spared being brave enough to be proactive again. EgoDan’s wrath is unprecedented in the memories of those key military leaders that were spared.

Who was one of the first persons to call EgoDan and let him know, “I am behind you” ?

Yep……. The Tsar!

Who had the skill sets, the ability to help manipulate this failed coup in Tukey? Yep…. The Tsar!

I can’t help but believe when the Tsar saw the report on just how hard EgoDan came down on his own military leadership, a huge smile had to slowly form on that KGB molded face.

EgoDan, the guy the Tsar disliked more than anyone else in the region, had just accomplished what the Tsar would have never been able to pull off. The destruction a key NATO member’s military Command and Control! Brilliant!!! A word I use a great deal when talking about Putin!

A truly stalinistic purge the Russians could admire.

After this spectacular dismantling of the Turkish Military leadership, what needed to happen next?

Well, from EgoDan’s standpoint, he had to make sure the region understood his ability to respond was still alive and well. He had to prove Turkey was able to stay proactive.

How could he do this?

Well, it appears the best way was to conduct an operation in Syria. A concept that was now doable given his mending of fences with the Tsar. To him, a “twofer” was the answer. One; show he was still Sultan. Two; toss the Kurds into the basket of suspects for supporting the failed coup. 

So, how did he sell this, well, in his mind, it was as simple as convincing the Tsar he would attack the “Terrorist” in Syria. What “Terrorist you might ask? Why the ones the West  / US / supports of Couse; just like the Tsar had been saying for two years now. But, while he was at it, might as well push the Kurd’s back from the Turkish border as well. After all, it’s highly possible the Tsar gave EgoDan some level of “green light” on the whole Kurd issue anyway. In EgoDan’s mind, why would the Tsar be willing to let these Kurds get in the way of a new friendship between the Ottomans and the Russian?  And even if he did, what was he going to do about it?

While all of this is going on, the remanence of Turkish military leadership see the only way to get back in the good graces of their leader. Take an operation into Syria! An operation the old military leadership had been adamantly opposed to for over five years!

Did this expedition into Syria prove the NATO giant was still capable of combat operations?

Well, to the skilled eye, no! But, to the average onlooker, it may have passed the test.  

A very limited, very simplistic operation that had very limited goals. That is what a once very capable, very complex NATO member was now able to accomplish. Well, at least in the eyes of the Tsar. What a success story an all at the cost of betraying a few Kurds here and there.

At the end of the day, the facts are clear to those that know how to look for them.

One of NATO’s most valued members is a shell of it’s former self. And that shell is not command by a group of leaders who don’t dare be seen being cordial with the West / US.

Was the relationship between Turkey and the West on the rocks before the failed coup? Yes.

Was that failing relationship based upon military commander’s no longer Seeing Eye to eye with their NATO partners? No!

Old friendships run deep. Young Captains from 20 / 30 years ago still have ties to other NATO young Captains   from 20/ 30 years ago and they were all senior Commanders now.

But now, those enduring relationships have been severely disrupted. The ability to trust and quietly support each other, regardless of what EgoDan was doing, was now virtually gone!

Who would understand the value of such a complex game? Who would understand the advantage of destroying complex, old friendships?

A skill craft of a wise KGB Boss…………..that’s who! 

THE SULTAN DANCES WITH THE BEAR!

Yesterday, I stated I was going to speak to the issue of the Mad Turk, a nickname others have given him. As for me, I’m sticking with EgoDan.

As usual, I want to break this discussion down into a series of questions and keep the explanation as simplistic as possible. Remember, I’m not pushing some pending book; not trying to get on Fox or CNN. I’m not wearing black turtleneck shirt and so no, I’m not trying to be a “Talking Head”.

Question number 1:

What Changed?

On July 15^th EgoDan survived what he probably knew was coming, an attempt to toss him out.

When a person of his emotional instability survives and event such as a coup, you better believe his actions are going to be more than just erratic! Especially when the person is highly erratic to begin with.

A failed coup against a person like EgoDan was going to result in more than just a changed attitude. Revenge against those he determined were responsible was going to become the most critical issue on his long and irrational list of actions.

The next thing he needed to do was create his list of suspects and for a person as paranoid as him, that wouldn’t take long for him to post for the world to see.

Top of the list….yep…Gulen! Did he have something to do with the event? My opinion, yes! Was he the center of gravity for the coup? Nope! Did EgoDan love the idea of having the excuse to dismantle the movement in Turkey? Absolutely, so that is why he went to the top of the list. He’s a Terrorist you know, just asked EgoDan as he states it about three times a week. As a matter of fact, anyone who questions the Sultan is a Terrorist!

Next up, Europe or as EgoDan sees it, “The West”! Europe, you know, the EU that wouldn’t let the Ottoman’s join the club! I have no doubt in his world he believes the West was at a minimum, sympathetic to the coup. After all, EgoDan, in the West’s opinion, was and is responsible for the human wave that destabilized most of the E.U. A perception the Tsar is absolutely giddy over, for you see, the plan to flood Europe was his all along, but EgoDan took the blame.

So, in the mind of EgoDan, the plot was set to remove him from power and then stop the flow of displaced people into Europe. Oh by the way, EgoDan was more than happy to understand Terrorist were embedded in those human waves! “How dare Europe continue to keep me out of their club”!

As EgoDan sat to ponder how to get his revenge against the West / US / for being part of this betrayal, it must have dawned on him; dawned on him after the Tsar called him!

Yep. He would end his adversarial relationship with the Tsar and go one better than that. He would reach out to him and even fall into line with the Tsar’s way of thinking for the region! Well, not really, but it would be an easy story he could sell to the West / US / and would that ever make them upset!

Yep, like a defiant Teenager. “So, you won’t let me date him…..I’ll show you….I will run around with him and all his friends”….Singed….. The Preacher’s Daughter!   

The Preacher’s Daughter’s mentality was an easy concept for him to come up with for after all, he could manipulate the Tsar just like he did the West!

Like I’ve always said; EgoDan is a fool and a crazy one at that!

At the end of the event, the results were clear to many, but not the folks in charge of D.C.  EgoDan and the Tsar had become dancing partners as the rest of the party attendees looked on in bewilderment or in horror!  All but one, Israel, but I won’t go there right now.  

Yes, the change was set.  The Ottomans and their age old enemy, the Russians were dancing on the world stage!

Question number 2:

What will the results be of the Ottoman “change”?

Many have already asked the inevitable, “Will it last”? In a way, that question has to be tabled if one want’s to get to the answer of question number 2!

No! No it will not last. Something can’t last that never really started in the first place.

If anyone thinks some type of bond is taking hold between the Russians and the Ottomans, then they need to avoid world events because they are clueless. But then again, that may qualify them for a job at the US Department of State!

What is taking place between Russia and Turkey is a rather lopsided game of Chess. Yep, lopsided and my money is on the Tsar. EgoDan truly believes he can manipulate the Russians into letting Turkey neutralize the pending Kurdish state along the Turkish border based on land taken from what was once called Syria.

At that fateful meeting between the Sultan and the Tsar here is what I think was agreed to.

The Tsar would allow EgoDan to move on the Kurds in Syria and once again leave the Kurd’s being betrayed! Betrayal, a habit the West was skilled at when it comes to the Kurds, but now it seems it’s the Russian’s turn!

What the Tsar was looking for was far more complex and far more important to him than having the Kurds curse him for leaving them to be run over by Turkish Tanks!

NATO and the goal of seeing its demise.

As a reminder, over two years ago I posted my thoughts on the Tsar’s Master Plan to pull part of Europe back into the Russian Empire sphere of influence.

Manipulating the humanitarian crisis in what is left of Syria by moving the Russian Air force into the fight and then watching the human wave pass through the Turkish gates right into Europe; knowing all along the Terrorist were walking with them! That was the Tsar’s plan.

With the US conducting foreign policy from its knees at the command of a progressive Liberal, the Tsar knew full well the time was ripe to retake the part of Europe that he needed….his beloved Russian had lost under the foolish rule of the Communist.

The goal was clear to the Tsar. Make the people of Europe fear for their future. Make them look for security. Let the Terrorist wreak havoc on them and let them blame their current, Liberal leaders for letting it happen and soon, the Tsar and Mother Russia takes the stage as savior. To make this happen, the Tsar needed EgoDan and he needed EgoDan to think punishing the EU was his idea!

Brilliant…..simply brilliant!

Here is the scary truth. It’s working and it’s working far too well.

Just think of it, the largest contributor of ground forces to NATO is now killing the same people the West / US / is supporting in Northern Syria…..the Kurds! 

As for that US / Russian / ceasefire and the purpose behind it, well that’s another story and one EgoDan has not realized yet! When he does, if he does, he will then see the complexity of the Tsar’s plan.

Yep, at the end of the day, the coup, the new found friendship and the crisis in Europe are all complex parts of an even more complex plan.

The continued solidification of the Russian Empire.  

Tonight the Sultan dances with the Bear as they both smile, gleeful in their thoughts of how they have outsmarted their dance partner!

When the music stops, I’m betting on the Tsar being the only one that has a chair to sit down on!