THE “PLAN” FOR COMBATING ISLAMIC STATE FORCES….WILL IT WORK?

I’ve purposely avoided posting for the past three days, although  I don’t like do so, as I waited to hear the President of the United States divulge his “plan / strategy” for combating the Islamic State Movement.

By the way, just because the US President gave a quick little explanation as to why he and his staff continue to address the IS forces as ISIL or ISIS, that doesn’t mean the world will follow.

So, back to the question everyone who worries about IS worries about.

Will the US strategy work?

I waited a few days to hear this strategy, and then spent a day pondering what it would lead to or what it would be impacted by.

If you have followed me for the past few years, you know exactly where I am going with this.

Did the strategic planers capture the possible second order effects topics?

Did they think through the class Law of Unintended Consequences?

Yes, the overarching question is, “will it work” and I will end tonight as I have for the whole month; asking a question for my readers to ponder.

Having said that, let me list the issues that must be addressed if anyone has the slightest hope of answer this most important question.

After listening to the US President’s speech, I had to prioritize my doubts.

Here we go:

How does the US support the Free Syrian Army, if you can call it that, and not protect them from Assad?

Who is bombing the FSA?

Islamic State Forces?

No; at least not with Iranian barrel bombs…yes…. The same Iran we are supporting in Iraq!

So, the US and it’s so called Allies, notice the Turks backed out, supply and train a FSA unit.

Supposed this unit defeats a IS force in a given location and the next day, Assad’s forces attack that FSA force?

Does the US respond?

Next:

So and FSA unit that is supplied and trained by the US and it’s Allies is engaged in combat with an Al –Nusra force?

What does the US do?

Were  Al-Nusra forces part of the President’s speech?

Does the West take on the image of fighting only Sunni movements as it supports Shia Persians in Iraq?

Next:

Lebanon?

If Islamic State Forces dissipate into Lebanon, and trust me, dissipating is exactly what they are going to do, then does the US bomb them in Lebanon?

If they operate out of Lebanon, does the US attack them in Lebanon?

Remember, the US President’s words were, “anywhere they exist”!

Next:

Turkey?

An end state of a defeated IS movement and a reinvigorated, armed, PPK / Kurdish state?

Ya…right…

A Turkey who is given absolutely none of the credit for solving the Syrian Crisis?

Ya…. Right…

Next:

Islamic State Forces / movement in Africa?

Nothing recruits better than being the underdog when it comes to a Western Super Power Pounding on a group who shares the same sect of religion or beliefs.

In the move Andromeda Strain… it is discovered that if they blow the virus up, it will only grow stronger!

Next:

Yet another Proxy war?

Yes, this starts with the US President stating this is about IS and it’s horrific acts, but where do our enemies take it?

Where does the Tsar take this event?

Where do the Iranians take it?

One thing about conflict the US President may have overlooked; you enemy gets a vote!

Ok, I could go on and on, but I think my point is made.

Defeating a movement is far more complicated in the 21^st century than planning a conventional war with a conventional enemy / state.

Killing the enemy is one concept.

Killing the movement is a whole different issue.

What is the core of this and any movement like it?

Lack of hope….. the absence of true governance…. No sense of any possible future.

Does this sound like the babble of Progressive Liberals?

Yes.

Is it almost as impossible to achieve as defeating a Ghost like enemy with Air Power?

Yes.

Defeat a “Vison” with a better Vision!

Can it be done?

I know what can’t be accomplished, but I will not answer the core question I started this topic with.

The vision of the GCC to create jobs, industry and education and in the end…..hope….that is the answer for the region.

That takes vision, dedication and sacrifice and in the end it will require “change”.

I know… a word the US is really sick of hearing.

In a matter of days or weeks, the Islamic State Forces will disappear into the shadows of winter.

The weapons will be hidden.

The troops will blend in with a population the West will not openly bomb.

The West will declare victory and pull the mission….. Remember a place called Serbia?

A few months after that, a new group… a new movement will begin to destabilize a region of the world already destabilized.

The new flavor of the day will be upon us and the crisis starts all over again.

Hide to fight another day…… That is what we are up against and that only if our real enemies don’t turn this into something more than a quick media stunt to answer critics.

Remember this... I called the Arab Spring the Tunisian Virus for a reason.

51 DAYS OF GAZA…..SO ….WHO WON?

A simple question today, but one I have held off on for over two weeks now.

How won the 51 day conflict in Gaza; this time around?

To event attempt to find an answer, if there is one, let’s look at what was accomplished on both sides.

Is the gap between Hamas and Fatah / Abbas wider now than before?

Yes.

Remember, this is the same Hamas that attacked Fatah members and took Gaza less than ten years ago.

Did Israel once again have the perception placed upon it that it lacked “resolve”?

Yes and even worse, the perception problems now festers within the Israeli population.

Did Iran gain valuable information on the IDF from the conflict?

Yes.

Did Hamas fully feel the pressure of not being able to move in and out of Gaza from the Sani thanks to Sisi?

Yes.

Is that what Sisi wanted?

Yes.

Was the US / Israeli relationship pushed, once again, to the limits?

Yes.

Was this relationship damaged to the advantage of Iran?

Yes.

Was the infrastructure of Gaza destroyed beyond an even in the past?

Yes.

Will it be repaired anytime soon?

No.

Where the Palestinian people left feeling more divided than ever before?

Yes.

Does that leave their youth vulnerable to new movements; you know who I am referring to here?

Yes.

So, think about it.

Who was the winner here?

Israel?

Hamas?

Fatah?

Abbas?

Sisi?

Iran?

I know my answer, but what is yours?

http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2014/09/hamas-fatah-reconstruction-gaza.html

DID THE PUTIN JUST SAVE “NATO”?

While the Russians are experts at detailed strategic planning, they have had a history of not understanding the concept of Second Order Effects or the Law of Unintended Consequences.

If you ask them or those who have studied their planning philosophies, you will get an argument that they look at these “issues”, but they just don’t weigh them to a level the West would accept.

Side Note: Anyone who argues the West is “good” at this process is a fool!

So, the question becomes; did the Tsar just stumble into a classic example of one of the two processes?

Did he intend to give the NATO partners a legitimate reason to revitalize the concept?

Do the critics of NATO now have reason to become believers again?

Here is my favorite question.

Does the Tsar realize what may have just taken place?

What does he think has caused the announcement of this new NATO “Strike force”?

Last but surly not least; does he care?

In his mind, is this potentially revitalized NATO become anything more than a Paper Tiger?

Does the political “resolve” of those leaders who control NATO change?

Are they truly willing to draw yet another “Red Line” in front of the Tsar?

So, one of two things just took place.

1.  The Tsar inadvertently gave his old arch enemy new life….NATO!
2. He knew full well what he was doing and simply doesn't care!

Did Putin just save NATO?

THE ISLAMIC STATE FORCES…HOW TO DEFEAT THEM?

 After the events of today, it’s impossible to even approach a topic today that doesn't involve the topic of the Islamic State Forces.

For all the talk and all the rambling at the political and talking head level, the core question continues to be, “ what can be done”?

What can the part of the world that is opposed to this movement do to stop what is taking place?

Here are a few cold hard facts that cannot be overlooked.

When a world that is still, at least for now, dominated by Western media sees events such as the ones today, how do most of the people really feel?

Those in the US are “outraged”!

Those in Europe are “saddened and some are even angry.

In India?

In China?

In Africa?

In Russia?

In South America?

Did it make the news?

Yes.

Did it impact them to the point of stopping what they were doing and joining some US Department of State Coalition?

Probably not.

Just a few short days ago, a few hundred young Syrian men were marched out into the sands of Syria, heckled as if they were sheep, stripped to their underwear and then shot in the back of the head.

Not one!!

Hundreds… at one time!

By now, the storyline here should be getting clearer.

What is “outrageous” in the US is not outrageous in many parts of the world.

The US public lives, even if they don’t want to believe it, in a very well insulated bubble.

The loss of one US citizen at the hands of a subhuman group demands world outcry.

But then, it doesn’t happen or at least not to the level people in the US would like.

Tragedy is a daily headline in far too many corners of this world and the desensitized nature of billions simply allows today’s “tragedy” to be eclipsed in a matter of minutes.  

Does any of this minimize what took place?

No.

Does a dose of reality simply seem harder to swallow than in other parts of the world?

Yes.

Here is the real danger for the US.

If left unchecked, the US and it closest Allies may become just as numb to brutality as many other parts of the world have long ago grown accustomed to.

What can be done?

How can the forces of the Islamic State be defeated?

How does America respond to this direct threat?

That is the question the American people are going to have to answer and do so quickly.

When confronted with danger, three things can happen.

Accept it.

Fight it.

Ignore it.

Does the US truly wait for world partners to join some coalition?

Can it afford to?

A long time ago, I took a stand against evil people and I had only one philosophy towards them.

“You do not have to respect me.  You don’t have to like me, but you need to fear me”!

So, how does the US respond to the evil known as the Islamic State Forces?

PAKISTAN!  MORE TROUBLE AND WHAT DOES IT MEAN?

After talking with a few friends this week, I’m going to try a different approach for the month of September.

If anyone hasn't noticed, I usually pose multiple questions during a typical posting.

This month, I've decided to stick to one theme question and then challenge readers to seek what they believe to be possible answer or is often the case with world events, options for answers.

Pakistan’s new troubles:

Last week, I commented on the two groups that had decided to move on the government of Pakistan at the same time.

I spoke to the character of both Imran Khan and Tahirul Qadri with Qadri being the more “interesting” figure.

Well, as predictable as it was, it seems violence broke out in the middle of the so called “peaceful demonstrations”.

As news spread the Army was being called into action, first as mediators, then to keep the protest violence in check, the obvious question came to the surface.

Was the Army quietly supporting the protest?

The betting money is yes!

Protesters take over a major news network and then the Army moves in, but no heads are cracked.

No rubber bullets are fired at the station.

The protesters simply left?

Sound suspicious?

In the world of Police work, that is called, “ A Clue”!

Is it beyond the Army’s capability to create such a movement in Pakistan?

Remember….it is Pakistan.

Also remember, it’s the current Pakistan government that wants the Hero of the Pakistani Military, Pervez Musharraf, in jail for life.

So, just off camera; off in the shadows, who is watching, waiting?

How did the turmoil of Egypt, Syria, Libya, Tunisia start an who was able to turn it into something none of the protesters agreed upon?

Radical Islamic groups own large sections of  the countryside in Pakistan.

What does this turmoil mean to them?

How can the exploit the growing crisis?

Pakistan’s new crisis….. What does it mean to us?

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-29009549

THE UKRAINE AND ISLAMIC STATE…VISCOSITY IS THE KEY!

For several months now, these two stories have remained at the top of the media food chart.

Yes, the events in Israel temporarily became the shiny object media crows gazed upon, but the significance of the major two topics allows them to rise right back to the top time and time again.

So, what is the difference?

Why are these two stories more than just news sound bites?

Why do they continue to haunt those Western World Leaders to the point of admitting they “don’t have a strategy at this time”?

The answer is not complex and it’s not truly even debatable.

Last week, I spoke to an issue I’ve visited several time in the past few years.

Resolve!

The loss of “Resolve” stacked on top of a deliberate movement to kill American Exceptionalism.

The crisis in the Ukraine and the Islamic State movement are both perpetuated by the lack of resolve in the West. 

Now, I could talk all day as to how this collapse of world leadership, deliberate collapse, has pushed civilized people to the brink of social breakdown, but that would prevent me from striking at the heart of the issue.

You see, this lack of resolve was not by accident.

It is not the byproduct of a cunning adversary, although, I will admit there are those who were perfectly positioned to exploit the death of resolve.

So what happened?

What triggered this breakdown in world leadership?

Perhaps a perfect Cocktail was the issue?

A Cocktail contrived from a blend of modern Progressive thinking, Socialist philosophies towards economic status and the two very important ingredients, social media and the World Wide Web!

The recognized world leader in times of trouble, the US, in 2009, has a new leader stand up and say to the world, ‘ we should no longer lead…. We should be just another member of the collective’!

What consequences did this change have for the world?

Was the Pandora’s Box opened with untold, unmanageable results?

In my opinion, yes!

I could go on and on about this historical collapse in world leadership, but it would only sound like Bashing and we all know if you don’t agree with DC, you are “Bashing”.

So, in order not to sound like a Basher, let me address what most likely is a far more important point than realizing how this happened.

How do we “fix” this, or is this Humpty Dumpty all over again?

Yesterday, a certain person said to me, “well the President is striking Islamic State Forces”, they actually said ISIL forces not realizing none of them go by that name anymore, “and that shows he is not as reckless as GW was”!

Really?

A great philosopher once said, individuals are smart, but masses are ignorant!

Well, this person proved that theory doesn’t always hold true.

Anyone with the qualifications of watching at least one war movie knows limited air strikes will not change the course of a movement.

In the case of the Islamic State Forces, it may make matters worse; just ask Lebanon!

And how does the world view these “limited strikes”?

Simply put, they are doing more harm than good.

Does the world perceive this as “taking action”?

No.

Does the world see this as a political stunt?

Yes.

Does that anger DC?

Oh ya!

Does it impact the tactics of IS?

Somewhat?

Bottom line, is it doing harm or good?

Most likely it’s accomplishing nothing, with the exception of million dollar flight missions to take about 150 dollar trucks.

To be honest, did these missions alter the actions of the IS forces?

Perhaps, but allowing them to freely maneuver the countryside and head to the next potential target is not a “strategy”… there is no strategy in Iraq or Syria, period!

The Ukraine:

Where in the world is this leading?

What is Europe willing to?

Like the GCC countries, the Europeans understand the US will talk from the front, but watch from the rear.

A Western world that is truly leaderless!

In the Tsar’s wildest dreams, it couldn’t have turned out any better than this.

And now a historically, classic response from Europe!

A one week ultimatum!

Do any of them believe this will work?

No.

So why did they do it?

Desperation.

They are desperate to show their societies some level of….. You guessed it….. RESOLVE!

We will see the Tsar’s response over the next few days and I’m willing to bet, it will not be good news for Europe.

Fix:

Is there one?

How does the West restore “Resolve” in a world pushing them to the edge?

Oh by the way, I’ll leave the Dragon out of this conversation!

Well; the buzz word of 2008 and 2009 may be the key!

Change!

I remember the day Ronald Reagan won the elections in the US.

I remember people saying, pride was returning to the US.

I remember the Iranian suddenly figuring out a way to end the Hostage Crisis.

I remember Ronald Reagan standing in Germany and saying, “tear down this wall”!

I remember people saying, “ he is a madman and is pushing the world to the edge of nuclear war”!

I remember the reemergence of “RESOLVE”!

Was it dangerous?

Yes.

Was it even reckless?

Perhaps.

Did the US or the West have a choice?

NO!

A political system that truly is functional has a pattern of cyclic elections.

Having said this, here is my warning.

It is a law of physics that all things that depend on viscosity can reach a point of failure!

Modern society, modern economic networks, world wide networks, depend on viscosity!

That viscosity is founded in human belief.

The belief that things will be ok, or that bad times will go away.

In a world of social media and constant communications that viscosity comes under attack every day.

The slipping point if reached, cannot be saved by one election.

The Western world must hope for resolve to return.

If must hold on until the 2016 elections in the only country able to lead the alliance back to stability.

If this return of resolve doesn’t take place in 2016, if viscosity fails before that, then some other force will have to save the economic engine of the West!

Who has a vital interest in that engine?

Ah yes…. The Dragon!

US, ‘ NO STRATEGY FOR THE ISLAMIC STATE’.. WHAT DOES IT MEAN?

Was it just an outburst of honesty yesterday?

Was it an example of not being prepared?

Was it a “slip of the tongue”?

Was it a feint… a trick… .a ploy?

Only a chosen few will really know, but I can tell you what it was to the rest of the world.

Another gigantic perception event!

It didn’t take the world media thirty minutes to pounce on the comment by the US President.

As a matter of fact, as I was watching him give the speech, I told the person next to me, “that won’t take long”!

Back.

Back to the reality of world media, social media and 24/7/365, global coverage and how governance simply cannot come to terms with how to shape their messages.

So, now this morning in DC, the administration is running one main effort and that effort is not building a “Strategy” for IS.

It’s “damage control”!!!

Here is the problem with “damage control” in the world of social media.

It takes a great deal of effort, time and money, to fix Administration perception issues.

The reality is, they often don’t get ‘fixed”!

So, as the US administration runs damage control today, let me take a shot at how  this statement was perceived in the Region.

GCC:

“Uncommitted”, and uncommitted only strengthens their internal belief that US is no longer able or willing to control the region….as if it ever was!!!!

Islamic State Leadership:

No resolve! 

“The West / US / has no stomach for fighting us”.

Once again the “redline” theory goes out the window.

Iran:

“Got them right where we want them…. Still desperate for a nuclear ‘deal’, and willing to do our dirty work against a force we helped create… the Islamic Sate”!

The Tsar:

“ I’m not sure what they are doing and nether or they, so I’m pushing forward with my ‘Master Plan…. Keep sending the vacationing troops to the Ukraine”!!!!

Egypt’s Sisi:

“What?  They want our help again?  Hell, we are still trying to control the Hamas / Israeli issue and the US, who didn’t support me, wants me in another ‘coalition’? Tell them we are a little tied up right now, but we will get back with them soon”!

Turkey’s Egodan:

“ Let me see if I understand this correctly.  You support the Kurds. You won’t attack Assad. Now you are going to unwillingly  help Assad??????  What part of this am I supposed to agree with and oh by the way…..what’s in it for me”?

So, you see………… a slip of the tongue… a misguided statement in the world of live coverage and the entire concept of what is taking place changes.

And as for the United States Department of State…….” This is the story of a sailing ship… and a three hour tour… a three hour tour”….. ( Insert theme song here).