THE ISLAMIC STATE AND THE DIVISION OF BERLIN.

With all the attention be given to the US actions in Northern Iraq, it’s easy to once again overlook the area everyone seems very accustom to “overlooking”.

Syria.

Let me make this simple.

The Islamic State forces are set to do what Assad forces have been incapable of accomplishing.

The capture of Aleppo!

FSA forces know what they are facing and they also know the odds of anyone coming to their aid.

It’s very possible we are about to see history repeat itself.

At the end of WWII, the greatest challenge was to see who would grab what was left of Germany; the Russians or the Western forces.

It was a race that nearly lead to the clash of forces who had fought the same enemy for nearly five years.

Were the two sides “friends”?

Not really.

Did they have a common goal?

Yes. The destruction of Nazi Germany.

Was there concern over who would own what part of the country?

Yes.

Is the same thing taking place in Syria?

Yes.

How did it end for the West and Russia?

How will it end for the forces supporting Assad and the forces opposed to the IS forces?

Having said all of that, here is the even more confusing point.

At the end of WWII, who was on who’s side was a clear cut story.

Does that hold true for Syria?

Who is on Assad’s side?

Who is fighting IS forces?

Both excellent questions with muddy answers at best.

So, what happens if Aleppo falls to the IS forces?

Does the US airpower strike IS forces in Syria?

No.

Does the supporters of Assad commit more troops to save Assad?

No.

Does Assad lose Aleppo for good?

Yes.

Does Aleppo become just another city in the grasp of the IS movement?

Yes.

Do the young fighters of FSA jump ship and fight with the IS forces and bring all the arms they have with them; arms the “West” and “others” have provided them?

Yes.

So, why did I know this was going to happen?

Don’t think for a minute I’m the only one that figured this out.

The IS forces captured a great deal of conventional military equipment from the Iraq military that ran away.

This lead to the IS forces thinking they could utilize this equipment in a conventional combatant style, thus abandoning what has worked for them for several years; unconventional conflict.

They wondered if and where the line would be drawn and they got their answer.

Risk to US members in Iraq.

How long do anyone think it will take to return to what has worked for them and move the conventional equipment to a place the US forces will not strike it?

Hint.

They already have.

Remember…. The events of last week were a test of limits and the test is over.

So, where does that conventional equipment move to?

The fall of Aleppo may provide us our answer.

http://www.aljazeera.com/news/middleeast/2014/08/fighters-capture-towns-syria-north-2014813134018291760.html

HUMANITARIAN AID AND RUSSIAN THEATRE

Ok, if you couldn't tell from the title of this post, my sarcasm light is on.

It’s very apparent Western Intelligence has convinced its leaders there is something to this Humanitarian convoy.

Was it based on imagery of the tucks being loaded?

Was it based on signals intelligence collected on the units near the border?

The bottom line is something has been shown to Western Leaders and NATO Commanders that has led to several days of repeated, “we are warning you”.

Oh by the way, good luck with that “theme” when it comes to the Tsar!

What’s the result this time…..more sanctions?

Now, Russian intelligence knows full well loading almost 300 trucks with “aid” cannot go unnoticed and watching were the trucks came from, where they were painted and who is driving them…probably on their cell phones the whole way…. is impossible to cover up.

Knowing this, what are the Russian really up to?

Hiding an Invasion Taskforce in White Trucks?

No.

Painting a picture of a compassionate Tsar just trying to help the poor civilians in Eastern Ukraine?

Yes, but who is the picture for?

The West?

No.

The Russian people?

Yep!

In order to justify to your own people what you are about to do, you need to set the stage.

So this aid convoy gets denied at the border.

Shots are fired.

Innocent “civilians” supporting the convoy are killed.

Well, that would call for an armed escort and the ability to protect the relief mission heading to those poor civilians.

Sound outrageous?

If you said yes, then you don’t know the Tsar.

Is this whole thing a well designed  plan to sell the Russian people?

In my opinion, yes.

Will the West buy it?

Why do you think the warnings are being given?

Will it work?

We are about to find out.

MALIKI AND THE EVER CONFUSING CARD GAME CALLED THE MIDDLE EAST

Ok, once again, it’s time for a quick sanity check.

Arms to the Kurds…. The Kurds we abandoned at the end of Desert Storm.. Remember?

Arms to the Kurds…. The Enemy of our NATO member ….Turkey… you know… the new Sultans’ base for supporting the Islamic State forces?

Attacks on the Islamic State forces.. You know.. the same forces Assad is fighting to keep Syria…. Supporting Assad???? Yep that’s how some in the region see it!

Supporting the replacement for Maliki.. the Maliki the West supported and takes orders from Iran… ya… that Maliki.

Attacking the Islamic State forces trying to topple Maliki?

Forget getting a scorecard…. Just get a bottle… place it on the table and spin it……

That is the process taking place in the US Department of State right now.

And right in the middle of all of this, Sisi meets with the Tsar!

I can just imagine how that conversation went.

Remember; Maliki’s steam is in Tehran and the link between Moscow and Tehran is far more complex than many realize.

Why would the Tsar want anything to go the way the West would like it right now?

3 Billion in military aid is a strong bait for the Tsar to hang in front of Sisi.

Yes folks………… the backroom card deals are becoming more and more complex and I have to wonder who on the Western team is up to the siting at the table?

Next move….. My bet it belongs to Maliki!

EGYPT AND LEBANON… A MOVE  THAT WILL GO UNNOTICED

With all that is going on in the region right now, it’s easy to miss the fact that Hariri has returned to Lebanon.

It’s just as easy to overlook the strategic importance of this pledge by Egypt to Lebanon.

Let me take a minute and show how these two seemingly unrelated events represent a very important change.

Oh by the way; I’ve come to the realization that one of the fasted growth industries out there right now is the business of standing up “Institutes”.

The Institute for this…. The Organization of that…. The Charter of the Institute for the Organization…and so on….and so on…. And so on……good grief!

If  you have an opinion of the Middle East or any other hot topic on the worldwide media scene, just wait for one of the thousands of “Institutes” to hire you so you can babble on TV!

Ok; back to what I was talking about.

Hariri?

Does anyone remember who he is?

Who was his Father?

Who murdered his Father in a huge car bomb?

What event started the most drawn out United Nations Court Case in the world?

Well, let me keep in simple.

Hariri is hatted by Hezbollah and thus the Persians!

Why?

Simple; he, like his Father, believed and believes in a peaceful Lebanon that is a economic hub for the region.

In Tehran, that is pure heresy, thus they blew up his Father in 2005!

Oh ya, that was the event that lead to Syria’s proxy army, proxy for Iran, being told to leave Lebanon and that was the beginning of the end for the Assad rule!

Why was Hariri out of country for so long?

Ask the Hezbollah killers who have been and are still waiting for the order to kill him.

So, why did he come home now?

Simply put, it’s time!

It’s time for Lebanon to keep from sliding into the abyss of Sectarian War; a war they are on the very edge of being consumed by.

Islamic State forces combat operations last week on Lebanese land was the greatest warning sign yet of the pending disaster awaiting Lebanon.

And what of the Lebanese government’s feelings of him coming home?

Ask yourself one question; who is the President of Lebanon?

Or better yet.

Who is the net President of Lebanon?

Deadlock in the flavor of the day in Lebanon and Politicians almost always move only when they think the timing is right.

Is this the only reason Hariri decided now is the time to return?

Nope!

Ah, then you may ask; “what else”?

Did Hariri wake up late last week and say to himself, “I think I will fly back into Lebanon and see if Hezbollah can finally blow me up”?

Before anyone in the situation that Hariri finds himself in, decides to “move”, one thing must be true.

You must have support!

So, who is Hariri’s support?

Ah yes; the second part of my post today!

Egypt!

As an old retired FBI friend of mine loves to say, “There are no coincidences”

I know, typical of Hoover’s troops!

When Egyptian Ambassador to Lebanon made the announcement of “support” to Lebanon, does anyone truly believe Hariri didn’t know this was coming?

Now, take note in what was said by Egypt;  “ All possible Aid”!!!

In a part of the world where reading between the lines is an art, everyone should read that line!

Why would Egypt take this stance the very week Hariri returns to Lebanon?

Was it part of a “Plan”?

You bet!

Who’s in on it?

The West?

Don’t count on that one!

These guys are playing Chess and the West / US / is playing reactionary Checkers!

Back to the “why” of the Egyptian move.

What is important to Egypt about Hariri’s return to Lebanon?

Simply put, what’s in it for Egypt?

What is Hariri at his core value?

A business based leader who believes in the separation of religion and government.

Is he more like Sisi than other potential leaders in Lebanon?

Yes.

Does he have the “name” to win the Presidential elections?

Yes.

Does helping Lebanon remain stable indicate to the world Sisi is a real regional leader?

Yes.

Is Sisi the one that is being counted on to bring the Israeli, Hamas conflict to an end?

Yes; with the caveat that Hamas is destroyed when it’s all over…. From Sisi’s viewpoint!

What is the real threat to Lebanon?

The Islamic State movement?

Who has been able to stop the Islamic state forces?

Nobody.

What will it take to stop them?

A modern military.

Does Egypt have such a thing?

Far better than any other that has gone up against the IS.

Egypt is strapped for cash, so who will help them if needed.

Inter the Saudis!

Ok, in the big scheme of things, what are these two events really all about?

Who wants to be seen as the real “go to” country in the Middle East?

Egypt!

Who is the major competition for this title?

The Ottomans.

The Persians.

In Turkey this week, the election of their next Dictator is underway.

While he is distracted with that event, what better time for Sisi to make his mark on the region?

Everything about international politics revolves around timing!

The time was right for Hariri and the time was right for Sisi.

Let’s see where this goes and let’s watch how it is received by the Persians and the new Sultan of Turkey!

https://now.mmedia.me/lb/en/lebanonnews/559566-egypt-ready-to-help-lebanese-army

US STRIKES ON ISLAMIC STATE FORCES…. WHY…WHY NOW.. RESULTS?

Ok, let’s take a look at what is taking place as of today and how it’s all interrelated, or should I say, should be related; oh yes, and the magic word was used, “Genocide”.

US limited strikes on Islamic State units: Christians threatened…. Fill in the perception issue here.

200,00+  Muslims killed in Syria….no action!

Threat of “Genocide” in Libya…US action taken and now look at Libya.

Hamas with virtually no one willing to come to their aid as they wait for the Islamic State forces to win the hearts and minds of the young males in Gaza.

Lebanon has Hariri back in country as the Islamic State forces turn up the heat on Hezbollah in their own backyard.

Turkey quietly backs the Islamic State forces wishing the whole time it will lead to a unorganized Kurdish movement… Yep.. Egodan will not be happy with our attacks on the IS forces……oh ya…. Turkey is a NATO member.

Qatar, a “friend” of the West / US / is accused of supporting the Islamic State forces along with Iran, yet the US attacks the Islamic State forces.

Confused yet?

Let’s add in the Egyptian factor.

Hamas executes a Egyptian Citizen on the accusation he was “spying” on Hamas in Gaza.

Sisi, who hates Hamas and the Muslim Brotherhood hears of this execution?????

Maliki sits in Baghdad like Nero only without a fiddle.

The Eye Doctor sits in Damascus smiling as the US now depletes the very units that threaten to hang him from a rope….Oh ya… did the US plan on attacking Assad at one point in time?

And finally, off in the Southeastern corner of Europe sits the Tsar and his military.

When is the right time to destroy the Ukrainian forces in Eastern Ukraine?

Is the world somewhat distracted?

Oh.. I forgot!!!

Ebola!!!

For the most skilled group of true international experts, this list of disasters is truly the greatest challenge in nearly 100 yrs.

For what the West has going for it now, this list is completely overwhelming.

Ah.. and out there in the Dark….. a sound is heard…. A low, deep growl……and then a long and deliberate inhale….you know.. the kind you always heard when you were watching a move about…………… Dragons!!!

THE 72HR CEASE-FIRE… HAMAS’ FATE IS IN SISI’S HANDS!

Is this round of what seems to be endless limited conflicts between Hamas, it’s supporters and Israel ending?

Is there a “deal” in the making?

What is Israel willing to do?

Continue the fight?

Allow Egypt to be the hero by offering a limited crossing into Gaza?

Is Sisi willing to risk allowing a depleted Hamas, a friend of his mortal enemy, the Muslim Brotherhood, a gateway back into the Sani?

What is Hamas truly looking for this time?

Are they willing to walk back into the rubble that is now Gaza and once again take all the building materials for the next round of fighting in two years?

Will the people of Gaza be beat back into submission by the Hamas Thugs who control the streets?

So.

Just what kind of “deal” is being shaped here?

Next question.

Was this 72hr cease fire a ruse?

Was it created to provide the IDF a window of “resupply” and re-missioning for the next phase of the operation?

There has been and always will be tell tail signs of large military units “retooling”.

What condition are the IDF frontline units really in?

Next question.

What is the significance of Musa Abu Marzouk’s statement of, “there is no agreement to extend the 72 hr cease fire”.

Is Hamas and its allies truly ready to bring death raining down on the people of Gaza again?

Final question.

Just how committed is Sisi  to the Israeli plan?

As the 72 hr clock start to wind down, it is clear the fate of Hamas rest in the hands of Sisi.

Someone remind me again; what is Sisi’s opinion of Hamas, arm of the Muslim Brotherhood?

Dear Hamas….

Take a hint and take what you can get….quick!!!!

http://www.jpost.com/Operation-Protective-Edge/Hamas-threatens-to-resume-attacks-370292

THE BATTLE FOR DONETSK…. AND THE OTHER SHOE!

As the attention span of the West shifts away from Gaza, does it not focus in on the battle for Donetsk?

It’s obvious many Western leaders are concerned about the outcome of this conflict, but the question becomes, are their citizens?

If everyone woke up in the morning and learned that Donetsk was right in the middle of a battle that could determine the fate of the Rebels in the Ukraine, would they care?

Here is the problem and it’s not a new one.

The average Joe on the streets of New York or London may not care, but the average Ivan on the streets of Moscow would!

Even worse than that fact is the reality that the average Ivan’s Leader, Putin, is more than concerned.

Is this truly the last leg of the Ukrainian, pro Russian, resistance?

Are the Russian going to allow them to fall?

Are the supporters of the Rebels going to be forced to walk into Russia?

Does the Tsar allow two things to happen?

1. The Pro Russian forces fall to the new Ukrainian government.
2. The economic punishment Russia has had placed upon it is rewarded with the destruction of the “resistance”?

Once again the stories of Russian forces moving towards the border with Ukraine.

Once again the new articles depicting the latest group of Russian Military Exercises” hit the airwaves.

So, that’s it?

The Tsar plan goes up in smoke?

The border of Russia breadbasket is now in European hands?

The core of the Russian military industrial complex no longer belongs to the Tsar?

I’ve never been an optimist and I try not to be a pessimist.

A realist!

That is what I strive to be and it’s for that reason I sit here tonight waiting for the other shoe to drop….the Tsar’s shoe!