LEBANON’S GROWING FEAR OF THE BOOGIEMAN!

The fear of the destabilization of Lebanon has been discussed since the beginning of the conflict in Syria, but I would have to state that “fear” is once again growing!

It was just a few days ago that I read of a Hezbollah fighters being killed in Iraq; not Syria, but Iraq!

When the Islamic State forces first made their countermove, yes countermove, into Iraq, I asked the question, would Iran commit Hezbollah forces to Iraq?

Just how thin can the Persians spread the Hezbollah puppet fighters?

I’ve gone over the issue of Hezbollah leaders and supporters worrying about the commitment of their forces in Syria and thus leaving the homeland vulnerable.

So, I have to wonder, just how concerning is this new story?

“Militants” forming up in Arsal and Hezbollah forces now being killed in Iraq.

What is the discussion around the Hezbollah supporter dinner tables today?

Now, let me go back to my comment about “countermoves”.

I’ve said this before and I will say it again; Islamic State Forces move into Iraq was a countermove.

If they wanted the pressure off of them in Syria, then move on the target that is soft and move on the target that will worry the Persians the most.

Iraq!

If Hezbollah forces are in Iraq, even has trainers, then they are once the perception in Lebanon is that of being spread too thin.

Now, the next brilliant move by Islamic State forces; be seen in Lebanon in mass and be seen next to the force the Lebanese people has little confidence in defending them, LDF.

Without firing a shot, the Islamic State forces have significantly turned up the heat on Hezbollah and Iran.

As I sit and ponder this development, I can’t help but think about the stories flowing around all of last week.

The stories of the horrific video clips of IS forces killing Iraq regular troops!

Like many groups now, the IS forces have taken Social Media Warfare to a new level.

So, you are sitting in an armored troop carrier / 113/ in Arsal.

It’s 2am and your supervisors are where they always are at 2am… asleep!!!

Your friend shows you a you tube clip of IS forces killing captured solders in Iraq.

You know these same fanatics are just outside you line of sight, waiting for the right moment to do the same to you.

Do you slip away in the middle of the night?

Do you wait until the fighting starts and run away?

Do you risk being captured knowing there are no prisoners with the IS?

Or, do you joint them?

So, how is it the IS forces have grown to the numbers where they can fight in Syria and Iraq and soon Lebanon all at the same time?

I’ll tell you why.

Two reasons:

1.  They are more terrifying than any other event in the region.

2.  They are growing in popularity faster than any leader in the region wants to admit.

You see, when you are in a poorly equipped, poorly trained and poorly lead military, your commitment level is far lower than your survival level.

Yes, its official; the Boogieman / men / have arrived in Lebanon!

If anyone wants to track something telling, then track the desertion rates those young troops looking into the dark….looking at the Boogieman!

https://now.mmedia.me/lb/en/lebanonnews/558367-large-deployment-of-masked-islamists-in-arsal

DID HAMAS JUST “BLINK”?????

A 72 hr “truce”?

Will it hold?

Are there stipulations?

Both great questions, but I want to address what I believe to be a far more critical issue.

What made Hamas agree and do so somewhat out of the blue?

Did Hamas blink?

If so, why?

Let’s once again play one of my favorite games….. “WHAT IF”…

What if:

Hamas came to the realization Hezbollah and the Persians were not coming to their aid?

What if:

Hamas realized Sisi has them sealed off from escaping into the Saini?

What if:

They truly began to believe the IDF was not going to stop until the leaders were drugged out of their bunkers.. .bunkers that would show how well they were surviving while the children are blown to pieces on the streets of Gaza?

 What if:

Hamas realized their ability to resupply was completely cut off and they would soon be weakened to the point of falling prey to Fatah or other group’s eager to replace them as the money makers of Gaza?

What if:

The West said, “this is your last chance… we are walking away and the IDF will destroy what is left of you… 10,000 dead in Gaza is acceptable to those who have accepted 200,000 dead in Syria”?

And finally.

What if Hamas is truly tired of hiding behind their own children?

What if that action has caused so much division in their ranks that their forces are about to walk away…. Walk right into the arms of the Islamic State?

Something took place today.

Something Hamas was willing to accept.

Will it hold?

What are the stipulations?

Do either of these questions really matter?

HEZBOLLAH AND THE NEW BOOGIEMAN IN THE MIDDLE EAST.

So, we head back to the topic of Hezbollah support for Hamas and what it would lead to.

I stated it last week and I’m not coming off my stance.

Hezbollah needs Hamas to win, but not at the cost of Hezbollah’s destruction!

I won’t go back over the issue of the Islamic State and what a Hamas loss would mean to Hezbollah, but I will add the next level of “theory” to this complex topic.

Is Hamas calling Hezbollah’s bluff?

Nasrallah’s stump speech last week did little to convince the West anything would come of it.

But, that was last week!

What has changed?

What could actually make Hezbollah take such a dangerous and honestly disastrous track?

Is Hezbollah so worried over the downfall of Hamas and the rise of the Islamic State in its place that they would risk everything to prevent such an event from taking place?

Are the Persians truly contemplating sending in one of its vital proxy fighters; one that is already fully engaged in Syria?

Just how much does the survival of Hamas mean to them?

Answer; not that much!

So what else could be taking place here?

What are “we” missing?

Hint!

Who was this press release given to?

“The Russian news agency”!!!!

Get the picture yet?

Solve the puzzle?

The Tsar?

Is this the answer from the Tsar on the “slap” the West gave him this week?

Is the Tsar capable of saying, “ ok…place sanctions on me will you….. Watch this”.

What level of madness would the region fall into if Hezbollah entered the Hamas conflict?

Where would the price of oil go to?

What does the Tsar truly make his money off of?

How many times have I made the comment the Tsar uses the Middle East as a weapon over the West?

Is he capable of calling Tehran and ordering his Persian partners to instruct Hezbollah to inter the conflict?

I would submit this is more than a possibility.

Now, would Hezbollah actually walk into this Hellhole?

Just how much influence does the Tsar have left in the region?

Who scares Hezbollah fear more?

The Tsar… the Persians or the Islamic State?

My bet is the Tsar is finding out or about to find out, he is no longer the scariest person in the region.

Wow… I wonder how mad that will make him?

Heads up Putin… there is a new Boogeyman in the Middle East!

SANCTIONS ON THE TSAR...  THE SLAP THAT HAS NO STING!!!!

I believe I have had this pending conversation at least once or even twice before, but anyway, here I go again.

So the West imposes new sanctions on the Tsar… or as the press would have it; “slaps” him with them!

Good grief!

Well, that’s it!

I fully expect the Tsar to withdraw his forces from the border with the Ukraine and simply give up what is critical to his dream of the new Russian Empire; the Ukraine.

We all know these actions by the West have had a huge impact on the Tsar’s Master Plans in the past!

On top of that, the Tsar has a real history of buckling when someone bows up on him; why just look at how he ran away from the troubles in Chechnya and Dissidents in Moscow.

 Why; I would imagine the phone in the White House will ring any minute now and on the other end will be a blubbering Putin begging for mercy.

Ok, I am sure everyone gets my point by now, so let’s move on to where this “slap” is going to take us.

Let me start by trying to defend the actions of the West, as hard as that may be for a person like me.

What were the options?

What could the West do besides sanctions and this vicious “slap”?

Could we back the current government in the Ukraine?

Well, most pacifist in the West would say they are already doing such.

You see, to a pacifist, “talking” is a very powerful, emotional tool in the world of being judged by words and not deeds.

Could the West have openly supported Ukraine with items such as military hardware?

No.

You see, in the end, even the true Pacifist can sense danger and the Tsar has danger written all over him.

Secondly; as much as the passive West would love to see the Ukraine as part of Liberal Europe, they all know full well, the Ukraine is the Tsar’s backyard and you don’t step into the yard of someone who will come out the front door and beat your brains out!

Ok, so those ideas would work.

What next?

Could the West cause pain for the Tsar in other parts of the world he is interested in?

Ah.. now that would require two traits the West seems to be lacking.

1.  Unity!
2. Strategically vision.

Both of these time honored traits seem to no longer exist in the West.

The West / Democracy in general / has seemingly pulled away from the idea of freedom!

The price that must be paid from time to time that insures freedom, seems to be too heavy a burden for the slice of the world that calls itself “civilized”.

In the end, a team of academic advisors who have only read books or had cocktails on the topic of conflict walked into the offices of the Western Leaders and said, “if we do these economic things….it will hurt him and he may realize he needs to pull back”.

These are the words and these are the actions of pacifist dreamers.

 In the long run, these are the actions that tell only one story; the story of “wishful thinking”.

Maybe it will all just go away.

Perhaps the Tsar will wake up and realize what a terrible thing he is doing and change the entire course he has set Russia on.

Let’s close our eyes and all think happy thoughts!

And if that doesn’t work….well….we all know it’s GW’s fault!!!!

https://now.mmedia.me/lb/en/international/557926-us-slaps-sanctions-on-russian-energy-arms-and-finance

ABBAS.. JUDGE YOUR DECISIONS BASED ON HISTORY.

In the tragedy that is now the conflict between Israel and Hamas, one fact seems to be lost, but not to Mr. Abbas.

Has everyone forgot what took place in 2007?

Has Fatah forgotten the ruthless attack the suffered at the hands of Hamas?

No.

Did Hamas “win” the hearts and minds of the Palestinian people trapped in Gaza?

No.

Has Hamas done anything to make life better for the people of Gaza?

Where did the concrete go that could be housing the women and children of Gaza right now?

It went to building bunkers that house the leadership of Hamas along with their weapons.

As the flares float over Gaza tonight, Mr. Abbas has as decision to make.

Save the Palestinian people of Gaza or ride support  the very group that killed it’s own people for the sake of power and money in 2007.

History is an undeniable fact, but it is a fact that must be accepted if it’s to make a difference.

The facts are clear.

Hamas is leading Palestinian dreams to their graves, but not Hamas leadership graves for you see; they are safe in their bunkers…bunkers built with the concrete meant for schools and hospitals…. And yes….. the children!!

Mr. Abbas…. save the people of Gaza……. Turn your back on Hamas….

Stand up now and tell the world Hamas must leave Gaza immediately.

Then and only  then can you demand, with the backing of the rest of the word, the gates to Gaza be opened.

HAMAS AND THE MIDNIGHT OIL IN TEHRAN

With no way out and supplies lines all but cut off, Hamas fighters have a grim future facing them.

Egyptian forces are preventing any form of relief from entering Gaza from the Sinai and this is a critical issue for Hamas and those who support them.

If Israel is willing to accept the dramatic increase in civilian deaths a full scale assault on Gaza would bring about, then Hamas may be looking at a crushing defeat.

Having said this and with the likelihood of this event taking place, it’s critical to return to the topic of, “what replaces Hamas”?

Two weeks ago, I addressed the issue of the Islamic Stage filling the void left by a devastated Hamas force.

That reality is closer now than two weeks ago and many in the West are beginning to understand that fact.

Is the pressure to slow the IDF based on civilian losses or is it based on the fear of what may come next?

IS forces are locked in a violent battle for the city of Aleppo along with holding ground in Iraq.

IS forces ridding to the rescue of Hamas is not going to happen and Hezbollah must make a strategic decision, perhaps sooner than they want to.

As the fate of Hamas is being decided, another even more dangerous decision is being contemplated.

The Persians!

If the grand plan for the Iranians has been based on Hamas and Hezbollah providing fighting elements in a future battle with Israel, then what would their loss mean?

Only five years ago, the planners in Tehran fully counted on Hamas and Hezbollah as they designed their war plans against Israel.

Now; everything has changed.

Hezbollah is stuck in the bloody streets of Syria even as they fear a pending battle in their homeland against the forces of the Islamic State.

Hamas is on the edge of complete destruction with no Allie anywhere near being in a position to save them.

 And now, rumors of yet another Turkish navel flotilla could be departing for Gaza.

Is Egodan willing to risk open confrontation with Israel over Hamas?

No.

Is he willing to do something dramatic to get his name back on the FrontPage of this event?

Yes.

Iraq in flames……Syria in flames…. Lebanon smoldering…. Hamas and Hezbollah in real danger of defeat……the Midnight oil is burning bright in Tehran and the feast of the eid al fitr  is not the reason.

http://english.alarabiya.net/en/News/middle-east/2014/07/27/Egypt-army-says-14-jihadists-killed-in-Sinai-.html

IRAN…HEZBOLLAH AND THE PERSIAN BLUFF!

Last week, I commented on the “rumor” of Hezbollah coming to the aid of Hamas.

Then, two days ago, Hezbollah leadership makes statements on “supporting” Hamas.

Now, this story of Iran reaching out to Hamas through and with Hezbollah’s help.

So, what is going on?

Last week, my theory was based upon Hezbollah praying Hamas would not fall victim to the Islamic State movement after the IDF is finished with them.

Well, if anything, this story reinforces my stance and let me explain why.

What is more important to the Iranians, the survival of Assad, a leader who will never be able to lead again or Hamas as primary tool for actions against the IDF in a pending IDF, Iranian conflict?

Would the Persians want to see Hamas survive or even appear triumphant?

Yes.

If the priority of effort had to be delegated between actions in Syria and actions needed to keep the anti I.S. force, Hamas, afloat, what would the Persians chose?

Here is the reality that is hitting home in Tehran.

They can’t save Iraq, Syria, Lebanon and Hamas all at the same time.

Who gets the support and who gets the IS?

If support for Assad declines, will the IS forces in Iraq move back into Syria and thus relive pressure on Iraq?

Who is closer to the border of Iran?

There is your answer.

Who sees this answer?

Yep…….the eye doctor.

Now, can Iran afford to have the IDF destroy the Hezbollah forces in Lebanon?

No.

So, what is the real message here?

Here is my shot at the answer.

Imagine how the briefing would go inside the White House.

“Mr President, we have reason to believe Hezbollah may be about to inter the conflict between Hamas and Israel”!!!!!

What pressure would that create?

What level of panic?

An administration that gets hammered every single day over have a disastrous foreign policy having to wake up to an even wider, more dangerous conflict.

Is this a bluff?

Most likely.

Will it work?

Well, the future of the national of Israel will not be decided by the White House.

It’s a dangerous bluff, if that is truly what it turns out to be.

http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2014/07/nasralla-relation-renewed-hamas.html