ERDOGAN’S CONCERN, BUT FOR WHAT? HIS LEGACY?

Over 250 dead and the numbers are going up.

If there is one thing Egodan understood he needed to do and needed to do quickly, it was act as if he was deeply troubled by the event.

Was he truly upset by the mine disaster?

You bet.. .as upset over what it might mean to his rule as any egomaniac would be.

Today was a day for his sympathy and it was apparent his sympathy didn’t get him far.

Just how in love are the Turkish people with this ruler who has far over extended his control over Turkey?

Take a look at the crowd around his car today and see if you can answer that question.

Placing his hand over his heart as he looked into the crowd simply didn’t seem to work.

So, back to what he is really concerned with.

How will his adversaries leverage this event against him?

Will he lose support prior to his next presidential election?

You can rest assured his team is measuring this issue as I write this.

Does he need a head on  a stick?

Is that what it might take to take the pressure off of his rule?

Is it more than one head… how many…who… they are all sacrificial lambs if needed.

As soon as he finds out how many state / private / figures he must put to the stake, he will take his next action; the one he is known for.

Striking back at those who dare question his rule!

By next week, those who are still protesting   will be labeled as “antagonizors”, supported by the opposition…. An opposition out to limit the future of Turkey…..you know… .Ergodan’s legacy.

 Now, will Egodan’s  enemies not try to take advantage of this event?

Of course they will…. They to are political animals and that means you strike when your opponent is wounded.

Look; here is the reality of this disaster.

The only ones who really care about the dead and missing; the only ones who want to know how this could happen are the families and loved ones of the dead and missing.

Yes.. to Egodan this is a disaster, but a disaster to his rule and future.

I will tell you one thing, I would not want to be the Mining Minister in Turkey right now.

I don’t care if he is Egodan’s long lost Brother; he is a marked man and he knows it.

Let’s see how long it takes the Ottoman Sultan to strike out at those who question him.

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-27415296

SAUDI AND THE “BREAKTHROUGH” WITH THE IRANIANS?      YA .. RIGHT!

Well, I must admit the only thing that “stunned me” after reading this announcement was the number of “experts” stating, how stunned they were!

Is it new that Saudi is “reaching out” to Iran?

No.

Has something changed?

Is it a linked to the nuclear negotiations taking place this week?

Are the Saudi’s so worried their Western support is failing that they would suddenly compromise and capitulate to the Persians?

Now, that one I can answer!

No.

So, what is taking place?

Did Prince al-Faisal decide to strike out on his own shock his King?

Really; not a valid question.

Once again, the best way to decipher what might be taking place, we should consider who the “message” is for and not why the message was announced.

Is the leadership in Tehran the intended audience?

Was the message to someone else?

Someone else…..that’s my bet.

Money is power and power is based on knowledge.

The knowledge of who is promising what to whom and what that might mean to you, that is the leverage money can buy and who has more money that Saudi?

So, this reach out takes place just as the nuclear negotiations are set to start and who are these negotiations important to?

Yep…. The West / US.

So, what message is conveyed when the Western Leaders hear Prince al-Faisal making such a statement?

Does it help the negotiation?   

To all the progressive Western leaders, the hope is the Saudi’s are truly looking to calm the flames of conflict with the Persians!

Perhaps this could even lead to the peace in Syria?

Maybe it’s an indication the Saudi’s are ready to give up on the Sunni cause in Syria, given the Assad victory in Homs and the rumors of a pending settlement over Aleppo?

Well, these are the exactly the type of baseless statements Western leaders  “experts” love to give their Bosses… why…. there might even be a promotion in the works!!!!!

Now, let’s look at this “reach out” from the Persian’s viewpoint!

When word of this ‘breakthrough” made it to Tehran, I wonder how many of them began to run up and down the halls using the word, “Breakthrough”???

Yep…. None!

Did the Persians put an ounce of belief into this statement?

Nope.

And do you know why, because they understand they were not the intended target.

An airplane arrival… a few photographs and a few words on the future of the region that is what will come of this “breakthrough”!

 Here is all we really need to understand.

The details of Saudi’s actions are known by the Saudis and only the Saudis.

The West will have to rely on the inputs from their “experts” who are looking for that next talking head gig or perhaps a GS 15 slot in DoS or the intelligence agencies.

Oh, as I've said before; there is one groups that may just have all the answers….. the Oil industry.

Who knows what about the Saudi’s intentions is based on money and money is based on oil.

Now, what these oil folks know is understood for only one reason….profit and profits are based on the power of knowledge.

Do these knowledge holders / power holders/ run to tell their secrets to Western Political Leaders?

That’s about as big a mystery as the inner workings of the Saudi kingdom.

http://english.alarabiya.net/en/News/middle-east/2014/05/13/Saudi-ready-to-negotiate-with-Iran-FM.html

ALEPPO…. “ WHAT IS JERUSALEM WORTH”?

Three years ago, I commented, at the beginning for the battle of Alleppo, Alleppo would be the Center of Gravity for the Rebels.

Well, who were the “rebels” three years ago and who are the “rebels” now no longer resembles the beginning.

Is Assad supporting Sunni, Fundamentalist Radicals…. The same ones he has battled for three years?

Was Assad able to divide the “enemy” to the point they spend as much energy killing each other as they spend fighting Assad and his Allies?

Did Assad truly figure out how to make this happen?

Of course not!

His Father could have pulled this off, but not the Eye Doctor or his Brother.

You can thank the Iranian CUD force for turning the tide of the Sunni factions.

It’s a process the Iranians perfected prior to Syria and it simply took a little bit of time to make it work.

Now, as for Aleppo; it’s the prize the Assad Team wants desperately.

Not because it’s a function city, it may never be that again.

It’s the symbol that makes it the “prize”!

It’s the city the Assad team would never retake!

So, what has changed?

Is the fall of Aleppo truly the end of the Sunni rebellion?

Are the “Rebels” whomever that may be now, read to call it quits?

As I stated about the situation with the city of Homs, the will to persevere must reside in more than just the minds of the Old Religious Leaders who sit and sip their Tea all day talking about what is at stake.

Rebellions have a Life Cycle and the cycle in Syria has is no different that the thousands of other rebellions over the history of man!

Yes, the 21^st century Pandora’s Box called the world wide web…. Social media has changed how conflicts are perceived, supported and then unsupported.

You see, it still takes young men willing to not only destroy their futures, but give up their lives for perhaps a 100 yrds of rubble that may be held for a day or less.

After three years of dying and an Enemy that seems embolden to take travesties to the next level, the population of these “young men” may be about spent.

Let me assure you, Assad, through the networks of Iran and the Tsar, know exactly how many new fighters are moving into Syria.

If that number is falling, then once again, the old BB King song may apply….”The Thrill is Gone”!

I cannot sit here tonight and tell you the “Tide” has turned or is about to turn.

I’m not willing to predict the fall of Aleppo.. the truth is, like Homs, Aleppo ceased being a “city” nearly three years ago.

Aleppo is not the strategic goal of the Assad Team.

Assad doesn’t get to make that call… he’s an Eye Doctor who inherited a Cold War process that is far too complicated for his brain.

This may not be the end for the Rebels.

Fighting may take place for years to come at a much lower level; just think in terms of what is taking place in Iraq right now.

What I do know is this….. The fate of Syria does not rest in the hands of the West!

It does not rest in the hands of the Arab League.

Syria is  tool… a tool of the Persians and the Tsar.

Who sets the tone for the foreseeable future in the Middle East is no longer an issue for the West to control.

Those days are gone… Into the pages of history… like thousands of other events in the region.

Aleppo:

In the movie “ Kingdom of Heaven”, there is a wonderful scene where Balian of Ibelin ask Saladin, “what is Jerusalem worth?”…. Saladin answers, “nothing”. Then as he walks away he turns and clinches his fist with the answer of, “Everything”!!!

http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2014/05/syria-aleppo-rebels-fighters-war-civilians-ceasefire.html

IRANIAN DOUBLE CROSS??? MAYBE.. OR JUST PARANOIA ONCE AGAIN!

Last week, I kept reading about a series of articles, statements and open press stories on how President Rouhani was for lack of better terms, a turncoat.

It was also fairly understood this story line was being pushed by the IRGC’s leadership.

So, fast forward to this week and then comes the rumors of the IRGC preparing to neutralize any have baked deal Rouhani may come up with over the Iranian nuclear weapons program.

Is Rouhani truly a reformed, Middle of the Roder”?

The West / US / has certainly been banking on that wish.

Could Khamenei have concocted a plan where Rouhani comes out as the “reformer….willing to talk to the West”… and yet be a loyal follower of the Persian grand plan?

Or, did Rouhani win an election based upon the votes of those the Khamenei / IRGC / camp fears the most…….. the youth of Iran?

Remember this.

The backfire the Iranians started to prevent the Forrest fire of the Arab Spring from reaching the Iranian capital, that lead to the civil war in Syria was just one indication of how far Khamenei’s team was willing to go to preserve the “dream”.

Has Rouhani truly tried to strike out on his own?

Is he truly making an attempt to meet the West halfway?

I’m not sold on the idea, but in reality, it doesn’t really matter what we in the West think.

What is important to focus on is the reality that the CUD force and the IRGC work for the Supreme Leader an no one else.

I’ve said this before and I will say it again.

If the Supreme Leader wants Rouhani gone, all he has to do is send one message to Soleimani and the deal is done!

Taking all of this into consideration, what are we looking at in Iran?

Is the House divided?

How does the West “test” this theory?

Does it even know how or worse; does it have the desire to try?

This Iranian weapons game has been going on for decades now and the playing level is now far more complex than any point in the past.

Trust is a fleeting concept in the 21^st century of international affairs.

Trust inside the walls of a tyrannical government like the one in Iran is nearly impossible thanks to social media.

If there is a disturbance in the “Force”, something I’ve questioned in the past when talking of the Persians, then how is it leveraged?

Now, here is the truly disappointing question.

Who takes advantage of it?

If not the West / US / then who?

Ah yes… once again the Tsar’s name comes into the picture.

Talks coming up….talks the US and the West are desperate to have a positive spin.

That means nothing.

What does the Tsar want to take place as a result of these “talks”?

That’s the real question.

http://www.debka.com/article/23908/Nuclear-talks-in-jeopardy-Khamenei-orders-Rev-Guards-to-mass-produce-missiles---regardless

RUSSIAN PATRIOTISM…EVERYBODY’S HAPPY RIGHT?

Victory day parades and the largest parade in Moscow in over 20 yrs?

Is anyone surprised?

Just about every journalist placing their eyes on these well scripted events continues to rave about the apparent surge in Russian pride!

 I won’t argue the point the Tsar has accomplished a masterful feat in rebuilding the support of a public that was only a little over a year ago working hard to real Mr Putin in.

Then came the “threats” to the Russian people themselves.

The rise of Nazism in Europe and ever more controlling “West” trying to keep the good people of Russia down….once again!

Yes, to a large degree, what the Tsar has pulled off is impressive, but are things as blissful as the state controlled media in Moscow would as the world to believe?

Do youthful Russians see themselves as important members of a global community?

Do they remember or understand the horrors of what took place in their country over sixty years ago?

Can the Tsar build future Russian pride on the memories of WWII?

Does that equate to the youth?

Today was a day to celebrate a heroic feat unmatched by any other nation during WWII.

What the Russian people accomplished… what the endured.. what they survived forever changed those who remember and perhaps their children.

Those who protested against the Tsar and his heavy handed dealings with those who oppose him; they are not the children of the War Heroes.

Most are not even the grandchildren of that generation.

Are today’s events in Russia yet another indication of how the Tsar is on the move, after all, it was the largest display in over 20 yrs.. I think I read that twenty times today!

I’ll tell you what it means to me.

A little over a year ago, Mr Putin was struggling with a population that was no longer in love with his vision / style / of ruling the Motherland .

Mr. Putin’s “Vision” of the Russian Empire with him playing the part of Tsar was in trouble.

Yes, the Tsar has things going his way….for now..

Does that mean the discontent that was so visible in Moscow a little over a year ago is gone?

No.

Does the Tsar know that?

You bet he does.

What is he willing to do to keep the momentum moving forward?

Who is he willing to suppress at home?

Ask around… you can find the answer.

Today was a celebrated day for those who dared to stop the Evil that was Nazism and nothing should degrade from that fact.

Mr Putin was not one of those heroes and he can only bask in their glory for so long!

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-27334038

PUTIN’S HAS THE MEDIA “CONFUSED”? SIMPLE.. IT’S NAZISM!!!!

So, the Tsar paints a picture of “backing off” on the whole Ukrainian issue or so some of the  media “experts” have commented.

Now, granted, some of them are skeptical, as is the rest of the world, over the Tsar’s change of heart.

Look, we all know what is going on here.

Once again the well-organized phases of his master plan are being executed right on time.

Last week the official Russian stance was, they no longer have the ability to influence what is taking place in the Ukraine.

Logically, if you know how the mind of the Tsar works, the next statement would be one along the lines of, ‘ we are making every attempt to work peacefully towards a compromise’!

So, Russia states, ‘we can’t control but we are trying to help’!

Really?

We all know what a passionate man the Tsar can be!

So, if we have correctly anticipated these two moves by the Tsar, what is the next?

Are these stunts just another indication he is about to move on to the next phase of his Master Plan?

What is that “phase”?

I remain skeptical of an actual Russian movement into the Ukraine, but if I woke up tonight and it had moved into an open operation, I wouldn’t be that stunned.

Ok, as much as the Western media seem to be memorized by the Tsar’s so called change of heart, the attached story is far more of an indictor of where the Tsar is heading, big picture wise.

First off, look who attended this meeting.

Armenia, Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan and Belarus!

If you think Poland or some other Eastern European nation is on the Tsar’s target list, you might pay attention to why these three are more important to him than non fuel producing Eastern European speed bumps.

Next, look at the “theme”, a topic that is not new to the Tsar’s vocal opinion of where Western Europe has been heading for years now.

Stirring   the image of Nazism and it’s European roots is not a process brought about by the Tsar’s passion for European history.

Painting a picture, a very unpleasant, picture of his potential rivals and then proclaiming to his non-European business partners that this seems to be the growing trend in Europe, well…….. ask yourself…………why?

I’ve said it time and time again, but here we go.

What is taking place in the Ukraine is only one phase of the Tsar’s Master Plan.

Bringing up the image of the Nazis in Europe again allows the Tsar what?

The support and the excuse to prevent that from taking place in lands that are important to Mother Russia?

I just wonder what the German government thought when they once again heard the Tsar bring up this issue of  “Nazism” in Europe?

The Tsar continues to move ahead with “Plan Russia” and we all keep running around trying to figure out what he is doing and what he is going to do next.

http://en.ria.ru/russia/20140508/189672188/Putin-Warns-of-Growing-Militant-Nationalism-Nazi-Ideology-in.html

HOMS AND THE UNITED STATE’S CONTINUED DYSFUNCTIONAL POLICY.

As I was reading through a stack of articles about the recent events in the city of Homs, I came across this one in al-monitor that simply made me change gears on what I wanted to talk about tonight.

Let me break down what I would like to comment on into two topics with the second one being far more important, big picture wise.

HOMS:

So, Assad has a “great victory” in Homs?

He has the “momentum”!

The “resistance” is demoralized!

The “tide has turned”!

Well, I don’t buy any of it.

Historically any conflict that last several years has the tendency to appear to have “run it’s course”.

It’s even logical that the entrenched government, if it has the support and the resolve, can wait until the flames of passion….passion for the romance of conflict… fighting.. telling war stories… basking in the “Warrior” limelight, begins to die out.

Is that what is taking place in Syria?

To some extent yes.

The reality is as much as some would like to predict the changing of the tide, the reality is the resistance is now the entrenched government and the entrenched government is now wearing down the war weary original resistance.

Yes.. We are talking, to some degree, about role reversal!

Homs has been ruled, for the most part, by the rebels for almost three years now and the city is nothing more than a pile of ruins with people wondering around from day to day.

What constructive “vision” did the Rebels have?

What jobs program did they have ready to implement?

What is the planned development for the city?

Exactly…. Young men caught up in the thrill of killing and taking pictures of each other!

Not a real formula for “Urban Development”!

“We need your food, your money and your young men”; a message that cannot last three years without giving the people a single thing in return.

Yes, the Civil War in Syria is entering a new phase.

Yes, the “tide” may be “turning”!

But,  what does this “turn” mean to those who are trying to live in what is left of Syria?

Does Assad wake up in the morning and say, “ok it’s over and we can all go back to work now”!

Homs, one of the most historic cities in the world is a for the most part a smoldering pile of stones and concrete dust.

As a matter of fact, I would argue the definition of a “city” no longer applies to Homs.

As of today, some are running around trying to get paid for saying, “Homs is evidence of failed Western policy”.

Some are running around banging out the next chapter of their mindless books on the conflict in Syria, saying “Homs” is the turning point”!

Nobody in Homs cares what this “event” means.

What they want to know is if they can walk across the street in the morning without being shot by a sniper.

Can they pass a parked car without having to hold their breath?

Nothing has changed and the war will continue!

UNITED STATES’ DYSFUNCTIONAL LEADERSHIP!

Am I referring to the current administration or to the House and Senate?

Yes!

If you are to believe what is said in this article, and I do, then key members of Congress are learning more about what the US is doing, or should I say not doing, in Syria then they are from the White House?

Two parties, two doctrines so focused on destroying the credibility of the other that the world watches with complete disbelief!

Sad?

I’s more than sad, it’s damn downright dangerous!

Has it happened before in  American history?

Yes, but that was then and this is now; this is the 21^st century and past mistakes are not examples for the future.

Does it matter the rest of the world may read this article and say, “what a fallen idol they have become”?

Does it matter the Tsar and the Dragon see this disgraceful relationship on a daily basses

And say to themselves, “ who cares what they think… they are in the death throes of Capitalism / Democracy”!

Does exposing this dysfunctional relationship between the two parties bring a greater degree of danger to the American people?

Yes.

The 21^st century world live off of social media and social media is the King of perception.

I will tell you this; an old adage needs to be applied here and someone better realize it quickly.

“ A house divided cannot stand”.

Finally; please don’t give me that worn out line of, “ disagreement is a sign of healthy governance…. In a Democracy.

This is the 21^st century and those who believe that better open their eyes soon.

There are times this slogan is true, but now is not that time! 

I'm fairly passionate about this one. Please pass it on. 

http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2014/05/homs-victory-assad-weapons-syrian-opposition-jarba.html