AN ADVENTURE TO CAGE THE DRAGON… WITH A BUTTERFLY NET!

To say Pepe Escobar writes with sarcasm is to underestimate the obvious, but he drives a point home better than most.

How many people, not many I know, must be wondering, “ what is the US doing… shaking things up in the Dragon’s backyard at the same time they are being accused of aggravating the Tsar in his backyard as well”?

As poorly as the West is handling the status of an Allie that supported the West in Afghanistan and Iraq…yes.. the Ukraine put boots on the ground for the West in both conflicts…….  Why the sudden thumping on the Dragon’s tail?

I must admit, it seems puzzling to me and many like me, but there just might be a reason or two.

Let’s look at what might be going on here.

1. It was a planned trip and the US decided not to deviate it’s schedule and show “weakness”…. I know…. Too late!

2. Perhaps someone, you know… the academic’s looking for their next book on the issue.. have  convinced senior US leadership the Dragon must be shown it cannot pull a Crimea in the Pacific…. At least not without some real harsh words… and we all know how the Dragon shakes when harsh words are used…. Almost as bad as the Tsar.

3. Perhaps the whole Beltway Bandit Team has gone Batsh-- crazy?

Side note:  I could Easley see the left of center block in the US saying the President is once again caving to the Military Industrial Machine!

In reality, my bet is all three points have merit to what is taking place.

If the premise is the West is going too far by attempting to pull countries like the Ukraine away from the Tsar, then taking similar actions in the Pacific near the Dragon would seem disturbing.

Here is my problem with that line of thought; it gives the West / US / far too much credit for being visionary, deep thinking Masterminds.

The US currently has an administration that puts as little effort into international affairs as possible.

Planning the preventive demise of the Dragon and the Tsar may make for good sound bites to ward off accusations of being “clueless” in foreign policy, but the Devil always rest in the details and it’s the details that seem to be lacking here, not to mention just plain old simple desire!

Here is what I think is taking place.

The West / US / is not on the offense… not with the Tsar or with the Dragon!

No, just the opposite!

The Tsar sees the same thing the Dragon sees…weakness and a group of nations divided internally/ socially!

The Master Plan placed into motion by the Tsar was never designed to “prevent” the West from gaining ground on once Soviet ground.

Oh no…

The Tsar’s Master Plan is based on rebuilding the “ Motherland”… Just look at the opening of the 2014 Winter Olympics if you have any doubt.

The Dragon’s “Master Plan” is even far more complicated and detailed than the Tsars and has been underway for over thirty years now.

Folks…. Here is what the West / US / is doing and it’s more than not pretty, it’s almost terrifying!

The West / US / is now involved in a life and death struggle to remain relevant in the world.

Soon after losing “relevancy” can come demise!

What we witnessed today in the Pacific was not a well oiled machine set to counter the Dragon.

What I believe we witnessed was just another phase of the West / US / trying to tread water……..trying to hold together fleeting Alliances!

Tonight… Eastern Europe sleeps uneasy with the Tsar lurking in the dark and a few Paratroopers temporally in an exercise will not scare off the Russian Bear!

Tonight…. The friends of the West  / US / in the Pacific are thinking of a once mighty Warrior who is perhaps passed his prime.. still talking like a defender of the land, but the doubt is now there and the Dragon is out there in the dark… waiting!

In the Middle East… those who called us “Friend” now wonder where they will be in five years as the Persians and the Ottomans dream of Arab Slave Markets!

Yes… the “Apology Tour” and the announcement of the Death of American

Exceptionalism has set into motion events that perhaps could not have been prevented.

All powerful nations slip from grace at some point in history.

The question becomes, did the US set this action into motion too soon!

Was the world really ready for the withdrawal of leadership?

Side note:

 if my readers in Asia would be so kind to pass this around.. I would love to get the feedback or see how many read this post in that part of the world. Thanks.

BEAR BOMBERS… HAMAS AND FATAH… BUSINESS AS USUAL RIGHT?

Two stories today that on any typical day would grab some level of attention, but quickly fade of a CNN / FOXNEWS / BBC / Special Report broke out on a Police car chase or a Tornado that damaged five homes.

But, as we all know, we are not in “normal times” and that makes these two stories worth mentioning.

Have Russian / Soviet / bombers flown close to Western Airspace or even into it?

Yes… for decades!

Was this event any different today?

Yes.

Why is it different you might ask?

Because these are not “normal times”J

Logic would dictate that if a country was in a time of tenuous relationships, it would take extra precautions to avoid “misunderstandings… especially military misunderstandings!

Conversely; if such an action was to take place during such tenuous times, it would be expected that all parties involved would perceive this to be a deliberate act.

Now, does the Western media know full well this type of event has been going on for years?

Yes.

Does the Western media know these are not normal times?

Yes; hence the above average coverage today.

So, was the Bear Bomber flight paths a deliberate action?

Yes.

They always have been.

Superpower Bomber Crews don’t accidently fly somewhere!

They don’t get “lost” or miscalculate their location!

So, yes the act was deliberate and it was deliberate at a time when the Tsar’s military knows all too well how delicate relationships are.

Was it “timed” to take place at the same time as the anticipated arrival of US forces in Poland and several other old Warsaw Pact countries?

Really… need I answer that one?

Did this “event” have any true meaning; was there a message being sent?

Yes!

Nothing is going to take place between the West and Tsar that doesn’t involve “messaging” from the Russian standpoint!

Ok, on to the next topic of the day.

Hamas and Fatah!

One of the advantages of writing about the Middle east for the past several years is being able to remember how many times a topic has been rehashed.

I’m fairly confident I’ve spoke to the issue of Hamas and Fatah forming a “government” on two perhaps three other occasions.

This time around, let me get right down to the brass tacks of this glorious announcement; “glorious announcements”… something the Palestinian, Hamas and Hezbollah leaders love to act out!

Not so long ago, Hamas gunned down Fatah members in Gaza in a bloody takeover!

Did anyone forget this fact?

I bet the members of Fatah who lost loved ones have not forgotten.

I bet the government of Israel didn’t forget.

So, once again, is this something new?

Is this agreement different?

As with the Bear Bombers, the answer is yes!

Is it different that Hamas and Fatah will never agree on who is in charge of what?

Nope…. That will never change…. Not in the Middle East!

So, how is this historic agreement different this time around?

Because it give the Israelis the ability to look the West / US / right in the eye and so, “I told you so”!

All the pressure to force the Israelis to the table just left the political balloon!

How many times has Abbas threatened to “quit”?

Well, this time around his threats may not be needed.

In the past the Arab nations were in a position to spend energy on keeping the Hams / Fatah issue under control.

Times have changed and the luxury of Arab League  / GCC / input may be gone.

Hamas is in a far different place this time around.

Egypt is now back on the “other side” and the Persian input is more demanding than ever.

Hamas leverage of the more radical elements in Gaza is weaker and those elements know it.

Both Hamas and Fatah leadership are now more worried about hearing, “we told you your way doesn’t work”!

What will come of this “historic announcement” is not based on a joint government.

What will come of this event is the ability of the Israelis to walk away from the table and tell the US administration, “that is what you get for making us come into the White House using the backdoor”!

So you see, both events have historical support.

What makes things different this time around is where we are in the word now compared to the events of the past.

“Oh…It’s always been that way”!

One of the most ignorant and dangerous statements any so called “expert” can possibly make.

http://www.cnn.com/2014/04/23/world/europe/russian-bombers-intercepted/index.html?hpt=hp_c2

http://www.debka.com/article/23862/Netanyahu-breaks-off-peace-talks-over-Palestinian-pact-with-Hamas-US-may-suspend-PLO-recognition

UKRAINE THE TSAR AND NORTH KOREA?

Once again, I get the opportunity to voice my theory of alliances most of the world doesn't think about or worse care about.

Now, in the past few years, I've   jumped up on my soapbox and vocally placed my opinion of what could be taking place between a few of the US’s most dangerous enemies……yes… I used the word the current leadership in DC seems to despise…. “Enemy”!

Several years ago, I posed this question; what if Iran and North Korea had a pack to support each other in time of crisis with the West / US/ not by sending aid, but by creating a crisis precisely at the same time of pending action, but doing so on the other side of the world?

Is there a relationship between Iran and North Korea?

Yes!

Would both be willing to sacrifice greatly if they had some level of confidence that a post event world would favor their own survival?

Yes.

What have I said time and time again…… “ The Enemy of my Enemy is my Friend”!

Is the Bad Haircut kid capable of actions that would stun the world?

Yes!

Do the Chinese control him to the point he could not execute something dramatic?

No… and trust me.. that upsets them more than anyone realizes.

Ok, the topic of North Korea’s relationship with Iran is not the central point of his conversation… not right now.

Let me move to what I wonder is the real issue.

The Tsar!

ASSUME TIME:

Let’s assume the Tsar is fully aware of such a relationship between the North Koreans and the Persians, after all who pulls the stings of the Persians and does so far more effectively than the Dragon controls the bad Haircut Kid!

Let’s assume the Tsar likes the idea of applying pressure to the West / US/ if the price of operations in the Ukraine become painful?

Would the Tsar risk actual armed conflict with the US?

I don’t think so, but I have moved away from the standard reply of “no”!

What if the Tsar informed the Persians to let the Bad Haircut Kid know he would be grateful for a well-placed message to the US / West ?

Do you think all of this sounds outrageous?

If you do, then once again I would submit you are not in touch with how ruthless, aggressive world leaders operate!

Does the Bad Haircut Kid have to pop a new nuke to make the Tsar appreciative?

No.

Does he have to get the two parties in the US arguing over how lost the current leadership in the US seems to be?

An easy achievement when you get right down to it; just pay attention to the political speak coming from DC if the Nuke test issue rises to the prime time news.

Some may ask the question,  “ what’s in it for the Bad Haircut Kid”?

Well, the current course of international events has a large chunk of the world believing the Tsar is the new power broker and that might be a good friend to have, especially if the Dragon Kingdom seems to no longer need your assistance.

Is there a subliminal message from the Tsar to the Land of the Dragon if he pulls off a “joint operation” with North Korea……if he gets the Bad Haircut Kid to do something for him the Dragon doesn’t support?

Who does the Tsar really fear….. in the long run???????

How complicated has international interactions become in the 21^st century?

Who in the world was such a dreamer that they truly believed the world was never going to see global conflict?

What was the nickname given to WWI ????

Oh ya… The war to end all wars!!!

Are we on the road to global war?

No..

Not yet..

What we are most likely witnessing is yet another phase of the Tsar’s Master Plan.

Is North Korea about to do something for the simple sake of the Tsar?

Trust me, if this “theory” of mine is even close to being true, there is something in it for the Bad Haircut Kid!

Imagine… just imagine what a man like Putin thinks of this silly looking little boy playing leader in North Korea!!!

The world does not move according to the talk around a table of highballs at a black-tie  Department of State social gathering.

The world is being moved by a man who doesn’t wear a shirt when he is hunting Tigers!!!

Finally;

If you truly believe the possible events with North Korea are simply a coincidence, then you need to just worry about who is on Dancing with the Stars and let the events of the 21^st century surprise you as they happen.

ERDOGAN EYES HIS NEW TITLE…. ‘SULTAN’!!

Ok, a quick update on one of my favorite topics, Egodan or should I say Sultan Egodan?

The Sultan’s vision has long been based on his total control of all things involving Turkey.

Why, who else could lead Turkey back to the greatness of the Ottoman Empire?

Why should he not take advantage of this pending election to firm his grip on power?

As he sits in the future Constantinople of his dream Kingdom, he watches as the New Tsar begins his run on rebuilding the Russian Empire and he must be wondering, “why not me”?  “ Why not now”? ……… “Will anyone dear to oppose me”?

What is the Sultan’s vision of the West?

If you guessed weak, you know him better than most.

It’s as if history is rewinding back to the 16^th Century..

A Tsar… A Sultan….

Yes, vision from delusional men, dangerous, delusional  men!

Can Egodan pull this off?

Can he win a popular election and then rule with an iron fist?

Reality may have one answer, but for men like him….. and the Tsar… reality is cast to the back  of  the conscious mind!

Both the Sultan and the Tsar have a standard reaction to being challenged…..attack and dare the advisory to continue to step forward.

A few months ago, the theory of Turkey launching operations inside of Syria was one even I was buying into and that goes directly to my point stated above.

If the Sultan needs to look like a dynamic leader, then pounding a few border towns in Syria is not out of the question.

If he needs a “boost” prior to the elections, then he will generate whatever it takes.

These are the actions of fearless, reckless egomaniacs and it growing more and more obvious by the day that the pending Sultan and the Tsar are both throwbacks to a time in Europe when bold, aggressive Demigods were ether admired or feared!

So, what makes this process so dangerous?

Will the Sultan gain a victory and then strike out to expand his Empire?

Probably not!

Will he demand the region make decisions based on his inputs?

Yes.

And what of Europe?

What of the Europe that looked down its nose at the Turks and made them eat crumbs at the table of the EU?

A Europe that is facing the most dangerous leader in nearly one hundred years… Tsar Putin!

Where does Europe line up with the dreams of the new Sultan?

More importantly, where does the vision of Europe / EU / line up with the new Sultan’s dreams?

This is not the first time in history, one bold, dynamic, aggressive leader has followed the lead of another like him or her.

Oh yes…. Once again…History does repeat itself!

http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2014/04/erdogan-elections-candidacy-president-future-policy.html

ASSAD REELECTION...DOES HE SEE THE CHANGE?

 I found this to be an interesting article by a superior writer on the issues of the Middle East that addresses an issue I’ve talked about for over a year now.

Again; back to the question of, “what price does Hezbollah pay for entering the conflict in Syria”?

If you have followed my opinions on this topic, you know I’ve predicted the transformation of Hezbollah and even the demise of what it initially stood for.

As I have said in the past, an organization with a prolonged operational engagement runs the inherent risk of, “you are no longer one of us…. You were not there”!

So, what could be pulling Hezbollah apart and what does it mean to their future?

Does Assad, as the author states in this attached article, risk Hezbollah getting too much credit for gaining ground in the conflict?

Great question, if you accept the premise that Assad has “gained ground / momentum”

 Side Note:  All save that argument for the end of this post.

Let’s look at what Hezbollah potentially going against them.

Popularity:

 Do the people of Lebanon believe Hezbollah’s involvement in Syria benefited Lebanon….. are the people of Lebanon safer than before Hezbollah entered Syria?

No!

Trust:   

Does Assad “trust” Hezbollah….. does Hezbollah “trust” Assad?

Are they both just convenient partners both dancing to the fiddle of the Persians?

Where is the trust now inside the Hezbollah?

What has changed?

Who has paid the price for battles in Syria and who has sat back in Lebanon and sipped Tea while writing colorful speeches and making money in the Black Market / Drug world?

What price has “fatigue” placed on the internal workings of Hezbollah?

What new Alliances are now made and who dreams of being the new “Boss”?

Support: 

Do the Persians really care about Hezbollah’s popularity in Lebanon or are they still what they have always been, a weapon in a pending war with Israel?

If Assad sees Hezbollah as a threat to his status in Syria, does he deal with his Persian masters to negate Hezbollah’s status or does he limit the movement of logistics from Iran to Lebanon?

A lot of question here, but one fact remains; what is the future of Hezbollah in Syria and what impact will that future have to the very future of the organization?

Ok, back to the side note I mentioned earlier; the “progress” Assad has made over the past few months.

Are the streets of Damascus safer now than last year?

Does Assad’s photo hang from the walls on any buildings in Aleppo, what is left of Aleppo….. the industrial hub of what was Syria.

And that is my point; what is left of Syria?

What has Assad really regained “control” over?

 Syria will never function again as it did prior to this conflict.

Assad’s dream of surviving the storm and then getting back to business as usual is gone!

Here is the issue he simply is incapable of understanding.

Not just Syria has changed!

The entire region has changed.

Alliances have changed, are changing and will change.

Two weeks ago, I wrote of the apparent fleeting support by the Tsar and the Persians!

Who is Assad trying to convince as he approaches the elections?

What was true three years ago is no longer so.

Does Assad understand this?

No.

Do the Persians and the Tsar?

Yes!

I’ve said this before, but it’s worth saying over and over again.

When you get right down to it, not just the Middle East or the region has changed or is changing… the whole world balance is changing.

The question becomes where does a small little slice like Assad fit in?

Three years ago, he was the talk of the town…. Now… all of Europe is under threat of “change” and Assad’s world is shoved to the rear.

Chemical weapons used again over the past few weeks and did anyone even care?

What I find almost comical is the very idea that an election in Syria is even worth talking about!

For an eye Doctor, you would think he would have better “vision” than he does!

https://now.mmedia.me/lb/en/reportsfeatures/543798-a-tense-alliance

PUTIN AND  MR. PUSHKIN…

So  some level of ‘compromise” was reached over the current status of Eastern Ukraine?

As there are with any international “deal”, levels of the details will not be revealed to the outside world and some levels of the “deal” will be presented to the parties who were not there to vote, is a different manner than what is shown to the public.

You can always tell this has happened as soon as the “official” story is released and active members of the event state their denial or terms that differ from what was released.

 So when members like Denis Pushkin jump to the microphone and start pouring cold water on the so called “deal”, what does it mean?

Did the Tsar really, truly have the dreams and wishes of people like Mr. Pushkin in mind when he launched this phase of rebuilding the Russian Empire?

Silly question I know, but one that drives home my point about what is really taking place in the Ukraine.

Let’s look at this from another set of eyeballs; the Pro Russian eyeballs!

Does Mr Pushkin and his followers owe their loyalty to the Tsar or to the vision of Ukraine they dream of?

Simply put, does Puskin and those like him see themselves as puppets of the Tsrar?

Well……the Tsar certainly does!

Now, the Tsar is no dummy, far from it, and that makes me ask the next question.

What does he really expect from this “deal” and how did he anticipate the Pro-Russian movement to react?

Before he ever sat down at the talks, he knew exactly what he wanted out of them and he understood what he would have to say and or agree to in order to reach that desired end state.

On the other hand, I would be willing to bet the desired end state for the West / US / was for the whole thing to simply calm down or even better yet….go away!

Side note:  I simply can’t forget the famous accidently captured conversation between the President of the US and the Russian; paraphrase ‘just wait until I’m reelected’!!!!

So, let me get back to my point today.

If the Tsar agreed to something he knew the Pro Russian forces would not accept, then I assume…my favorite gameJ…. He anticipated the failure of this agreement.

A failure he had in mind long before the formal talks took place.

It also appears the Western governments were not naive enough to take the Tsar at his word.

The “Show me” statements ran in the media within 24hrs as they should have.

One fact seems to be holding true and it’s a phenomenon that I believe is also taking place in Lebanon.

The people of Ukraine seem to be reluctant to want to kill each other!!!!

The problem is for the Tsar; that simply will not meet his goals.

If someone is reluctant to start the shooting on a scale large enough to execute the next phase of the Tsar’s plan, well then; he will simply have to arrange someone else to get it done!

Final Note:

I’ve said from day one, the fatal error in overconfident planning, such at the Tsar may have done, is to underestimate the ones you abuse.

Mr Pushkin and those like him may grow tired of the Tsar’s abuse over time and nobody knows that more than the Tsar.

Mr Pushkin needs to  be very careful…he may wake up dead!!!

THE SACKING OF PRINCE SULTAN…AGAIN!!!

Two good articles here that both address the same issue, but from different topics.

In the world of  international affairs and more importantly money, the rules never really apply or only do so as long as the public is paying attention.

It’s the reason most surviving governments refine the art of distraction; keep the public looking in the other direction.

Everyone should also understand the real relationship between the US and Saudi is inside the oil industry.

This process has the ability to survive individual “visions” and in the case of the US that is usually based on a eight year cycle.

So, does the apparent pending divorce between the US and Saudi mean the end of an alliance?

Have the political winds in the West changed so much that alliances will dissolve and or realign or will the cycle of relationships reestablish at the end of the eight year cycle?

 Here is the interesting point.

One of the answers doesn’t reside inside the Department of State or the Department of Commerce.

It rest with the oil industry…. The international oil industry!

Where are the profits to be made?

Who is willing to support the process and how much money could be made?

Profit decides who really talks to each other officially or unofficially.

Does the oil industry talk to Iran?

Next Question…. That’s my point…

The other answer as to the survival of alliances is conflict!

Conflict shapes the future and even then that is sometimes temporary.

The issue of the West reaching out to the Persians and the resistance to this process by the Saudis is the emotional sticking point and it’s also the most dangerous flashpoint for conflict.

None of this is new to anyone who lives in the world of international “relationships”!

But, like with any other profession, there are those who are good at what they do and there are those who are not!

The example I’ll give rest with the case of Prince Bandar Sultan.

Is Prince Bander a known “friend” of the Bush family?

Yes.

Are the Bush’s closer to the oil industry than the current administration?

Yes!

Is there the chance the feelings toward the Prince as based upon something as petty as resenting his relationship with a political and ideological foe?

Sadly the answer is most likely yes.

Are we making decision that will impact the entire region of the Middle East based upon personal beliefs and grudges?

Well, it will not be the first time something so unprofessional has taken place in world affairs.

Prince Sultan speaks for the King, but forcing the royal family of Saudi to remove him because of his personal “relationship” with the political enemy in another country, well, I won’t type what I would call that!

The Western “vision” of where the Middle East should be is more than confusing; it’s dangerous!

The oil industry will survive and profits will be secured.

Who gains those profits that is what the conflicts will determine.

But, letting personal grudges filter into the process; well…..like I said…. There are those who are good at what they do and there are those who are not!

https://now.mmedia.me/lb/en/gulfnews/543728-saudi-spy-chief-ousted-under-us-pressure-experts

http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2014/04/us-saudi-obama-visit-drifting-apart.html