SAUDI AND SIGNS OF TROUBLE OR PRINCES ACTING BADLY?

Ok, so two Saudi Princes make the news in the past several days and for once none of them are going to jail or being kicked out of someone's country, at least not yet.

When you read these two stories, you should stop to think about the bigger picture in the Middle East and what the Royals of the GCC have feared since day one of the Arab Spring, Tunisian Virus!!!!

Change.... and change based on no longer being in power.

What the relationship has been between the royal family of Saudi and Prince Khalid Farhan al-Saud is not a matter of public record and that is not unusual for the Saudi family.

Is Khalid turning to the more radical side of Muslim faith by linking up with  Dr Sa-ad Rashaed Mohammad al-Fagih, or is he simply getting out in front of the social, economic imbalance "theme" the GCC so fears?

And to make things even worse, the highly controversial, in Saudi that is, Prince Talal brings back up a ignored topic in Saudi.... the loss of control of the oil market!

One this is for certain, the movement Dr al-Fagih represents will exploit the move by Prince Khalid and it's not going to make Saudi happy.

Oh, by the way, anything that upsets Saudi and the rest of the GCC leadership, is music to the ears of Iran / the Persians!!!!

How will this play inside of Saudi is one thing, but how this plays in the hands of Saudi's enemies.....well... that is another topic all together!

From the begening of the so called Arab Spring, I stated Saudi was the Brass Ring the movement would be looking for.

Establishing a Palestinian state may be the flavor of the day, but the downfall of the Royal families of the Gulf, that is the real objective for the masses moving the social / economic agenda throughout the region.

For a family that thrives by staying out of the news, these two Princes have created more than a disturbance in the force, but then again, that's what bored, rich people do!!!!

http://www.foxnews.com/world/2013/07/30/saudi-prince-worried-that-us-shale-boom-could-cripple-opec-economy/

http://www.presstv.ir/detail/2013/07/28/316063/ksa-prince-defects-from-royal-family/

http://coldansviewpoint.blogspot.com/2013/02/turkey-andsaudi.html

SO... WHERE ARE HEZBOLLAH'S DEAD AND WHY HIDE THEM?

With all the talk of  the recapture or fall of Homs, take your pick, and the obvious fact that Hezbollah forces are doing most of the door to door fighting, one questions grows larger and lager with each passing day.

Where are the Hezbollah dead?

Stories have been circulating for weeks over the findings of "mass graves" filled with the fallen Hezbollah fighters.

The rumor, and it's a strong one, is Hezbollah's leadership fears the repercussions of sending the amount of killed in action home to Lebanon almost on a daily schedule.

It's also a well know fact the real casualty numbers would inspire the Rebels are bring shock to all of those who support Hezbollah's involvement.

All of this leads to another question and it's probably even more puzzling.

where are the Iranian dead?

Now almost two years ago, when Iran would lose members of their then unconfirmed "advisor force".. you know... the ones on Pilgrimage..... the bodies where sent home with no fanfare and most likely in the dead of night... no pun intended!!!

Here is a simple fact of combat.

When a well trained, highly committed and well armed force, like the fighters that have been moving into Syria from Afghanistan and Yemen,  and you top this off with them having the advantage of being a defensive position, the causality count on the other side is going to be high.

With thousands of Hezbollah fighters now in daily combat inside Syria, again the question must be asked; where are the dead?

The media is on to these Hezbollah "mass graves", but the story has not caught fire as of yet.....I emphasize....YET!!

How many Mothers and Wives are waiting back in Lebanon for word on their Sons, Husbands and Fathers?

How much longer can Hezbollah leadership keep the truth from the families that make Hezbollah a functional organization?

What price is Hezbollah paying for the actions in Syria both in dead and in support?

Aleppo!!!!

Aleppo and the pending battle that Assad's forces cannot win; will that be the breaking point.

Nothing collapses faster than a Military in full retreat.

Panic in Syria is one battle away!!! Aleppo!!!

How will Hezbollah hide the numbers then?

http://www.yalibnan.com/2013/07/23/snc-discovers-mass-graves-for-hezbollah-fighters-in-syria/

THE PENDING BATTLE FOR THE SINAI... HAMAS' ROLE???

As of today, it's now mystery the Egyptian Military is about to launch a major operation in the Sinai and it's also no mystery, the Egyptian Military is prepared to inflict serious harm on Hamas if it's members make the disastrous decision to get involved.

A disastrous decision I think some of their more radical elements may make, thus bringing pain onto all of Hamas.

General Sisi and his Commanders are more than confident on the issue of Hamas support to the Muslim Brotherhood and it's armed support groups.

As I have said for over two weeks now, the destruction of the tunnel complex, the ones the Egyptians want to disrupt, not all of them, and the surveillance of Gaza has been executed for a reason.

General Sisi's speech to the Egyptian people yesterday was more than just a statement, plea, to his supporters.

More importantly, it was a dire warning to his enemies!!!

" We know where you are and we are coming to get you"!!

That was the underlying message from Sisi and his Commanders.

Now, doest that mean the streets of the Egyptian Capital are going to run red with blood on Friday?

Not necessarily!

You see, my bet is Sisi's intent was to prepare the Egyptian people and the people in the region for what they are going to witness taking place in the Sinai.

Keeping order in the streets of the major cities in Egypt while simultaneously attacking the radical strongholds in the Sinai; I think that is the real intent of Sisi's message.

  I can name you one group that absolutely believes this to be the case.

Hamas!!!

In this linked article, it's easy to see just how worried Hamas is about the public perception of Hamas' relationship with the Muslim Brotherhood.

If I was a betting man, I would place a month's wages on the fact that Hamas is doing everything in their power to keep anything and I mean anything from launching from Gaza towards Egypt.

Hamas is convinced the Egyptian Military and the IDF have struck a deal and Hamas has never found themselves is a worse position than the one they are being squeezed into.

Ok, here comes the bad news, at least bad from the viewpoint of Hamas leadership.

The ability of Hamas to control the radical elements living in Gaza is zero!!!!

If every there was a time to give up the location and intentions of Hamas' rivals in Gaza, the next 24hrs has got to be it.

Some will argue the Egyptian Military operation has been taking place in the Sinai for over two weeks now, but what we have witnessed is far short of what Egypt is most likely preparing to execute.

Remember, the emphasis of Sisi's speech was on "Terrorist" and the actions to remove the threat.

That time is almost here and everyone near the Sinai knows it.

One last thought, but it's a critical one.

What is Hamas' option if they begin to pay the price for the actions of "others" around them they cannot control?

Lets see what happens in the next 48 hrs.

https://now.mmedia.me/lb/en/mena/gaza-authorities-close-al-arabiya-office-hamas-says

http://www.debka.com/article/23143/Defying-US-warnings-of-civil-war-Egyptian-military-to-crack-down-on-armed-protest-and-mounting-terrorism-

EGYPTIAN MILITARY OVER GAZA???

Well, the facts may be the first casulty of this story and in the Middle East and Politics that is usually the case, but lets look at what is being said in this article.

Does any believe for a minute the IDF would allow the Egyptian military to enter Gaza airspace without IDF approval?

So, for the sake of argument, lets assume...just assume. there is some level of truth to this seemingly outrageous allegation.

Why would the Israeli government even contemplate such an event?

Let's take a stab at that question.

It's no mystery the Sinai is a hotbed of potential unrest for Egypt.

It's also doesn't take a rocket scientist to realize who may have run back into the safety zone of Gaza as the Muslim Brotherhood was being disassembled.

And finally, it's clear as much as Hamas would like to make everyone believe they control Gaza, they simply do not; at least not at a level that keeps "others" from bedding down there.

Who would run to Gaza you might ask?

Does anyone think there is not a radical faction of the MB?

Does anyone truly believe AQ and other Islamic Radicals would not retreat from a well advertised, pending ground operation in the Sinai by the Egyptian military?

And just where would they "retreat" to?

Yep... Gaza... by tunnel of course!

Why does anyone think the Egyptian military attempted to seal off the tunnels they knew were used by these groups prior to any pending op in the Sinai?

Ok, lets move on and take a look at why Hamas would be shouting from the rooftops about Egypt.

First off, they are probably convinced the story of the Egyptian military working hand in hand with the IDF; given it has happened for years!

Now, let's insert the Fatah factor to this story.

Would Fatah love to see the military arm of Hamas take a beating at the hands of the Egyptian military?

Perhaps, but the idea of Hamas being seen as unable to control Gaza meets the needs of Fatah just as well.

It's the story of Hamas bringing pain to the people of Gaza that Fatah is looking for and over the past two weeks or so, that story has gained traction with each passing day.

So, what is missing from the "story"?

If you said, " no talk of the IDF and the Egyptian military working together", you would be right on the mark.

Why not?

Why no mention of this implied "Alliance"?

Can Hamas stand to paint Egypt as an enemy?

Can Hamas tell a story of the Egyptian military being pro Zionist?

So, what purpose does this story really provide and who does it proved it to?

Notice at the end of the article, the comment is made by Yusef, that Hamas should strive to seek "reconciliation" with Fatah and do so as soon as possible?

Who would that possibly benifit?

Did you guess Fatah?

Well, if you did and you based that on the fact that Abbas is right in the middle of trying to restart the peace talks with Israel, then you are thinking at a much higher level than most brain dead journalist.

Would the IDF allow Egypt to fly over Gaza?

Perhaps!

If Egypt is about to attempt to regain control of the Sinai, then knowing what might come after them without making the IDF get involved is a sound strategic concept.

Its obvious the "message" of flyover is being heard by Hamas and that message is, "you  better not stick your fingers into the Sinai and the actions that are about to take place there".

It's easy to see Hamas has had real bad month and it appears it's only going to get worse.

Can the Egyptian Military occupy Gaza?

An Egyptian "Peace Keeping Force" in Gaza with Israeli concurrence, wouldn't that just drive the Islamic Fundamentalist wild!!!!

Lets see what happens and remember; it's never boring in the Middle East.

http://www.jpost.com/Middle-East/Hamas-Egypt-is-trying-to-restore-sovereignty-over-Gaza-320825

HAMAS.. TUNNELS AND THE SINAI... WHAT DOES IT MEAN?

Rumors upon rumors of Egyptian military actions "pending" in the Sinai have placed the tunnels to Gaza back in the spotlight.

Does Gaza need the tunnels to keep what standard of living exist in Gaza?

Yes..

Does Hamas have the ability to control what passes from Gaza into the Sinai?

The perception is that they can or more importantly, they are expected to!

The IDF and just about anyone else that has paid attention to this tunnel process knows exactly what takes place and it's not all about supplies for the people of Gaza.

For several years the ability for certain members on both sides of the tunnel complex to make money from "movements" has never been addressed, yet it's the money that make the whole process work.

Everyone knows the tunnels support the radical members of Hamas on other groups in Gaza and everyone knows those "radicals" move from Gaza back into the Sinai using the same tunnels.

When the Egyptian military went after the tunnel network, only certain tunnels where impacted and that didn't happen by happenstance.

What do you move and how much to you pay, on both sides, that is one set of determining factors on tunnel activity.

The bigger factor rest with, who gets paid... what family... what military commander?

Now, some would say the solution is easy; if Hamas wants the tunnels to be left alone, then Hamas needs to insure how they are utilized!

If only it were that simple.

Here is Hamas' bigger problem.

The Egyptian Military is ill prepared to deal with the low intensity conflicts taking place in the Sinai and they know it; thus the reluctances to start this now highly anticipated       " Operation" in the area.

Hamas may not control the complete tunnel process, but they can be held responsible for the impact of the tunnels, the right ones to make Gaza suffer, being closed down.

Hamas knew all too well when they hitched their wagon to the Muslim Brotherhood Horse, they risked dire results from the Egyptian Military; thus the tunnel issue.

If the Hamas gamble was based upon the ex President of Egypt, Morsi, gaining the upper hand over the Egyptian military, well........... that was a bad gamble!!!!

Will the new Egyptian government risk the bad publicity of Gaza going into crisis mode over dried up tunnel movements?

Most likely the answer is going to be yes!

Before the Egyptian military, a far more professional outfit than others in the region, can contemplate "operations" on a large scale in the Sinai, they must do what every good military understands........... control the ability for the enemy to receive help.

Does the Egyptian military know what tunnels can be open and what ones must be closed?

You bet they do and that is why some are still open.

Does the Egyptian military plan on isolating the enemy in the Sinai?

Absolutely!

The question truly becomes, how long will it take the Egyptian military to execute the operation in the Sinai and can Gaza hold on until that operation is over?

Here is the problem with developing the answer to that question.

The Egyptian military is not geared for the type of operation the Sinai events are going to call for.

That leads the Egyptian military with one real option; conduct a quick operation and declare victory!!!

That is my bet!

And that leads me to my final point.

What happens when you declare "victory" and then the enemy shows up again or worse, somewhere else?

http://www.dailystar.com.lb/News/Middle-East/2013/Jul-18/224194-hamas-urges-new-egyptian-rulers-to-keep-tunnels-open.ashx#axzz2ZRkVblGu

KURDS vs THE NUSRA??? A WHOLE DIFFERENT TYPE OF FIGHT!

Yesterday I was reading about the battles taking place in Ras Al-Ayn between the PYD / Kurds / and units of Nusra Front and I couldn't help but wonder..... what if a fighting force that has a percentage of female fighters beats the mighty Nusra?????

How is that for a blow to your Islamic Fundamentalist male ego????

Now, its true the Fundamentalist have been facing female fighters from the West for the duration of the War on Terrorism, but there is a marked difference.

First off, these Kurd females are Muslim by religion or they claim to be!

Secondly, they are not "rear area / non combatant ... support troops..

The female members of the Kurdish units are skilled warriors who will kill with a knife, a gun or a stick if they get half a chance!

If you've never had the privilege to see them, trust me when I tell you they can hold their own and them some!

How would you like to be the Nusra unit commander and have to radio back to your superiors that you were being defeated by a fighting force with females members?

The Arab male ego is a fragile issue and the story of this event taking place is not going over well around the campfires tonight.

Ok, here is the real story inside of this story.

Nusra and it's followers discovered well over a year ago that Kurd fighting units are far different than twenty year old boys who wearing  sandals and hang out in coffee shops in Homs or Aleppo.

Kurds were practically born to fight and raised to shoot a weapon from the time they can stand.

Nusra and it's followers need to think more than twice before they start a protracted campaign to do battle with Kurds on what the Kurds consider Kurdish land!

Having said that, the strategic tactic of pressing the Rebels between an advancing Syrian/ Iranian / Hezbollah force and the warrior ethos of the Kurds is not a lost issue with  the leadership of Iran's forces.

Owning certain points on the map for the sake of re-supply or cutting off your enemies re-supply, is not a new tactic, but doing battle with two formidable forces such as the Kurds and the hybrid Syrian forces is simply a disastrous decision.

It's a decision that could cost Nusra and it's followers dearly, but then again, the FSA and it's supporters may fully support Nusra and it's gangs running full on into the buzz saw!

http://www.worldbulletin.net/?aType=haber&ArticleID=113303

HAMAS.. .A HOUSE STILL DIVIDED??? NO SURPRISE THERE!!!

Over the past few days, I've been watching to judge just how desperate a situation Hamas has become with the fall of the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt.

Well, as is always the case in the Middle East or governance anywhere in the 21st century world for that matter, the answer is complicated!

Time and time again I've addressed the issue of the "House Divided" that is called Hamas and how  the Western world really doesn't grasp how un-unified Hamas really is.

So, when I came across the attached story, one that is spot on, I decided to stop waiting to see what Hamas post Morsi move would be and just take a stab at it.

Now, the storyline behind the ongoing conflict between Meshaal and Zahar is a study in Arab "relationships" in it' self, but Shlomi Eldar really drives home a important point in this story, although it may be one he didn't really realize.

When we look at the movement called Hamas and we do so from Western eyes, it's easy to overlook the inter conflicts that are deliberately kept from the open, outside media.

Most of us realize Hamas is a movement without a true "Mother Ship" ... .a title once held by the Muslim Brotherhood when it comes to talking of Hamas.

Where should the movement turn and who should lead the turn; well that realizes a level of tension that has made the whole movement relatively ineffective.

It takes two hands to count the number of "leaders" that are all trying to Captain the ship and it seems none of them are willing to sail in the same direction.

You can also bet the behind the scene support to this dysfunctional family is hard at work and we all know what that effort is being lead by.

In the big picture of what is taking place in the region, this dysfunctional family issue may not seem like an important issue, but trust me when I tell you that it is.

If we back off the picture and look at the big moving parts for the whole region over the past sixty days, one thing becomes clear.

The Sunni juggernaut seems to have lost a great deal of momentum.

The Western world has been second-guessing the "support" movement given the strong possibility of the more radical Sunni's taking over the movement.

Any event that takes the wind out of the sails of the Sunni ship right now just might be by design.

Is anyone really going to attempt to unify the Hamas movement?

Well, my bet is not anyone from the Western side of the world.

Finally; what happens if the Sunni movement falls apart?

Does peace break out in the region?

Don't get your hopes up and when it comes to a dysfunctional Sunni movement; be careful what you ask for!

http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2013/07/al-zahar-ties-hamas-iran.html