IRAN'S MESSAGE.. "DAMNED IF YOU DO AND DAMNED IF YOU DON'T"

Ahmadinejad's "statement" today was more than just a reminder of Iran's commitment to Assad; it was a veiled threat.

With all the talk of what should the West do about the alleged WMD utilization in Syria, this timely statement from Iran was directed to those making decisions.

What's interesting is the concept of Iranian leadership possibly assuming those Western decision makers had forgotten such a vital point.

In fact, I'm confident Iran did not assume this loss of reality, but simply believed a well timed statement might reinforce a final vote of indecisiveness.

Sometimes, the best moment in time to influence a decision is just before you believe that decision is about to be made.

Timing!!!! A critical tool in the art of international politics.

I'm not going to enter the endless debate of "what should the West do and what are the repercussions if they do or don't do 'something'?

Here is a simple and in my opinion undeniable fact.

Syria and the status of Assad / the Shia government / is vital to Iran.

The fall of Assad and his government is a classic example of " A clear and Present Danger" to the Iranian government.

Of all the issues that must be weighted before the West responds to the possible, probable. use of WMDs in Syria, this Clear and Present Danger fact absolutely carries the greatest amount of value.

Damned if you do and damned if you don't!!!

The issue becomes, you must chose one version of "damned"!!!

http://www.dailystar.com.lb/News/Middle-East/2013/Apr-28/215340-syria-rebel-victory-would-threaten-region-iran.ashx#axzz2Ro1usb6C

HEZBOLLAH .. HOUSE DIVIDED.. THE PRESSURE GROWS!!

I want to stay on the theme of Hezbollah becoming a House Divided tonight, but I will end with a follow on comment dealing with Iraq.

You know, there is an old saying, one I've used on many occasions, "where there is smoke, there is fire"!!!!

If rumors of "troubles" inside of Hezbollah took the shape of smoke, then the smoke gets thicker with each passing day.

Hezbollah leadership is trying, feebly in my opinion, to explain away their losses in areas other than Shia villages near the Lebanese border with Syria.

As one article I read today stated; as Israeli jets fly over Lebanon, Hezbollah fighters are dying in Syria for Assad and their Persian Master.

Hezbollah's leadership cannot "wish" this problem away and their inability to provide plausible explanations to their base is becoming  more and more worrisome not only to them, but to the Puppet Masters back in Tehran.

To reiterate.... Hezbollah has a dangerous problem and they know it!!

Can they become a "House Divided"???

Just look at the Palestinian movement / Hamas / Fatah and you will have your answer.

Ok, Iraq:

Last night I made an argument for Iran pulling the strings on the violence in Iraq and why they would support such an event.

For the sake of point / counterpoint / let me ask an even more dangerous question.

What if... I just love "What if" questions... but what if... Iran had nothing to do with the rapidly escalating events in Iraq?

What if the events in Iraq were  the next phase of the uncontrolled, uncoordinated, relentless Sunni revolt in the region?

What if the Arab Spring "Virus" .... yes I still refer to it as such, but I must admit, I am growing more and more fond of the "White Walkers" analogy, was the cause of the events in Iraq?

What would Iran think if they had just committed their last true proxy force, Hezbollah, to the battlefield in Syria and the counter was the Sunni assault initiated in Iraq?

Has Iran committed a fatal error in their strategic response to the Arab Spring?

If you can't see the logic in this last sentence, then you need to increase you understanding of what is taking place in the region.

Last night I talked of Iran possibly starting a backfire to prevent larger events such as Sunni success in Syria from taking place.

Could it be the fire in Iraq is the counter-strike set by the Sunni and the GCC???

Interesting to say the least:)

IRAN'S PLANS FOR IRAQ.. ANOTHER SUNNI DISTRACTION?

In the past, I have mentioned the concept of preempting a larger event by starting a smaller one; much like the concept of a backfire to prevent a larger forest fire... the analogy I've used in the past!

Yesterday, I talked to the issue of Iran opening a second front on the Syrian rebels by employing Hezbollah and how much of a gamble that might to Iran's overall status in the region.

So, when the events of today took place in Iraq, I couldn't help but contemplate, again, why would Iran allow such an event to take place?

Now, the assumption here is the concept  that Iran has some level of influence over the Iraq government and as such, they had some level of input to the attack on the Sunni protestors.

Do I truly believe Iran has the ability to influence such an event in Iraq?

Yes.... I do!!!

The Sunni protest / demonstrations / have been increasing since December of last year and I would have a very hard time accepting the fact Iran had no say so on  how the Iraq government should deal with these events.

It's my opinion the Iranian leadership influenced the "plan" Iraq came up with to deal with the Sunni threats, but what the Iranian "goal" was ...........well.......that is where my theory gets interesting.

Let, me get straight to the point.

It is my belief Iran has calculated a "backfire"  to preempt any Sunni support from Iraq moving into Syria.

I Believe Iran anticipated the potential game changer Hezbollah might create in Syria and that would most likely draw additional Sunni support from Iraq into Syria.

The best way to prevent this would be to draw Iraqi Sunni unit's into a controlled event on Iraqi land.

Does this sound far fetched?

Let me ask a question in order to answer a question?

Just how paranoid has Iran become?

To what level is Iran willing to go in order to salvage their grip on Syria?

More importantly..... what does Iran have to lose by preempting events in Iraq they know are going to happen in the near future?

Why wait?

If we accept my theory on events in Iraq, then the next important question becomes; what's next for Iraq?

Forrest Fire Fighters will tell you there is always a risk with setting " backfires"!!!

What if the "backfire in Iraq.....backfires????

History is full of examples of plans hatched in desperation that failed and sometimes even failed in disastrous fashion!!

Is that what is going to take place in Iraq?

 DID ASSAD  AND IRAN JUST OPEN A SECOND FRONT?

A month ago or so, some of us asked the question, would Tehran risk utilizing Hezbollah's limited resources to open a second front on the Syrian Rebels?

The events of the past two weeks and especially the past few days, may have provided us with our answer.

Al-Qusair appears to be the Hezbollah priority of effort and at the tactical level that constitutes a "second front" for the Sunni fighters in Syria.

Drawing resources away from what Assad and Tehran truly believed was the concentrated effort to take Damascus that was and is now the objective.

The threat of drawing Lebanon into the conflict are no longer just words, but most likely a actual, strategic decision being considered.

Here is the problem with that concept; it will not be decided by the Lame Duck Government sitting inside of Turkey.

The decision will most likely be made by al-Nusra, much to the anguish of the so called Syrian Provisional government or whatever they call themselves.

What is even more dangerous is the fact that Lebanon has a limited ability to prevent this from happening.

Salafist Sheikh Ahmad AssirSyria

Lebanon

The odds are better than 50. 50 they will.

As important as this issue is to the overall status of the region, it is even more worrisome that Iran has already contemplated this play.

Prior to placing Hezbollah nearly at the forefront to turn the tide of battle, Tehran had to weigh the possible impacts of such an open engagement with it's number one proxy fighter.

This brings about the next important question.

What next?

What does Iran expect from the open placement of Hezbollah?

One thing is for sure; if this is Iran's version of "Brinkmanship" I pray they are willing to limit the extent of the action that may come.

The road to war may be about to get much wider!!! 

HEZBOLLAH'S ACTIONS IN SYRIA... THE "WHITE WALKERS" ARE COMING!!

In the past, I have addressed the issue of why Hezbollah can and cannot afford to be involved in the Syrian Civil War, but now the issue of "involvement is nearly a mute point!

Lets review several key issues on the topic, before addressing what the next step now seems to be.

1.  Hezbollah has struggled with the concept of risking their response capabilities, in regards to Israel, by being drawn into the Syrian conflict.

2.  Hezbollah has created an internal rift over the issue of members being killed in a cause that does not involve Israel.

3.  Hezbollah fears the repercussions of a full blown sectarian war between the Sunni and Shia.

4.  Hezbollah fears the potential loss of control in Lebanon by being over tasked with supporting Assad and Tehran.

5.  Hezbollah is desperate to avoid a open conflict that would witness Hamas members openly fighting Hezbollah members.

6.  Hezbollah understands the "perception" the Shia of Lebanon will adopt if Hezbollah is seen as reluctant or ineffective at "defending" the Shia towns along the Syrian border.

So, what do these six issues really mean to Hezbollah and the rest of the region?

It's simple........... Hezbollah must fight or they must walk away from Assad and Tehran!!!!

Their real predicament is.... they can't survive ether event.

The loss of a combat capable Hezbollah is a blow to Iran and perhaps a fatal blow!

Like the "White Walkers" of Game of Thrones... The Sunni are coming and the Iranian version of the 

"Nights Watch" /// Hezbollah /// have little chance of succeeding.

What options would Iran have left???

That is the real....real.... danger!!

IS HEZBOLLAH BECOMING A "HOUSE DIVIDED"???

I have addressed this issue in the past, but today article brings light back to the very important subject; is Hezbollah suffering from the events in Syria?

Last week we read of parents questioning Hezbollah leadership over the deaths of family members in Syria; a land they are not from.

I have long be of the opinion that Iran's pushing Hezbollah into  action in Syria was an action they knew might come with a price.

Lets revisit an issue that cannot be overlooked.

Hezbollah is less confident about their collective future in Lebanon than at anytime in their past.

The distraction of fighting, at the behest of Tehran / Persians / in Syria, although holding some value to them, is very possibly becoming a burden they question spending capital on.

If Assad wants to keep Hezbollah's support, it will take more than just Iran ordering Hezbollah to commit forces.

Assad will have to do two things:

1.  Sweeten the pot for Hezbollah... weapons... and ones they really want.

2.  Convince them that if he falls, they fall.... "we are all in this Sectarian war together"!!!

Now, could someone be "leveraging" the anxiety that seems to be building in the ranks of Hezbollah?

You bet and I can think of several suspects!!!

Can it work; can Hezbollah begin to resist the conflict in Syria?

I don't see how, for to do so would in all practicality make Assad's second point become a reality.

A fractionalized Hezbollah is a dream come true, unless you sit and think about a Sunni steamroller rolling over the GCC states.

Would the Muslim Brotherhood like to see Hezbollah marginalized and divided?

Yep..

Would Israel?

Yep...

Would the West.. well.... the US.... ???

Yep..

Oh what a complicated game the Middle East is!!!!

Everyone wants to be in charge and everyone is willing to betray the guy / nation / cause / next to them to get there...

http://www.jpost.com/Middle-East/Report-Dissent-within-Hezbollah-over-involvement-in-Syria-310316

ATTACK IN BOSTON... WHAT IT MEANS TO ASSAD, IRAN, NORTH KOREA!

One thing was for certain early yesterday afternoon; the media would not be talking about North Korea anytime soon.

The media is not set to let the possible UN WMD team inspections for Syria simply slip by.

Did anyone mention the failure of the ongoing negotiations with Iran over it's nuclear program?

Yes, it's easy to see and understand that all three of these very important events have dropped out of the public's eye; although, you can rest assured they have not dropped out of the watchful eye of the US government and its Allies.

Assad and Tehran may have had nothing to do with the events in Boston; I am very convinced of that...given the price that would be paid if they were tied to the attack, but you  can rest assured they both will take every advantage they can as the US and it's Allies try to determine who was behind this event.

We have all known for over two years now Assad looks at every opportunity of a "distraction" as a gift.

Although Tehran is not as desperate for the act of a distraction, it is welcomed never the less.

Tehran sees the concept of "distractions" as one simple but critical element in their Master Plan.....time.... distractions buy them what they need most....time!!!!

Here  comes the fundamental difference between Iran, Syria and North Korea!

The attack in Boston is not an "advantage" for North Korea... the attack in Boston does not buy North Korea "time".

As a matter of fact, the attack in Boston has the complete opposite impact on the Boy Dictator in North Korea; it removes him from the daily spotlight and that is, in my opinion, the most dangerous issue possible.

You see, everything he has been doing has all been designed to gather the world's attention to his ability to make the world listen to him......well.......maybe....... part of me still fears he really does think he can go to war with the South and the US!!

So, from the perspective of the young Dictator, the Boston attack was a disaster.

Virtually nobody in the Western Press even mentioned his name one time today.

His latest threat towards South Korea was probably hastily formulated last night in a feeble attempt to get the media talking about North Korea again.....it didn't work!!!

Could history show those who read about it in the future that the second war on the Korean Peninsula was the byproduct of a gutless attack on the Boston Marathon?

Did a neurotic, paranoid inferiority complex Dictator stumble into a disastrous war because  he simply lost the attention of the Western Media?

Lets hope not, but in the military, there is an old saying, 'hope is not a plan"!!!