AGAIN..... THE ISSUE OF NORTH KOREA AND IRAN????

I came across yet another article on the topic of the relationship between North Korea and Iran and how both of these crises could feed off of each other.

Now, this is probably the fourth of fifth time in the past two years I've addressed this "relationship", but in the past I've concentrated on issue of this "relationship" being deliberate.

In the past, I have addressed the concept of both nations have some level of a working alliance in time of crisis.

Today, I'm going to propose a lesser version of this theory, although I'm still not unconvinced they have a more formal agreement.

Let's assume the Tenets of Warfare have not changed with the events of ether North Korea or Iran.

If you know your "enemy" is distracted or overly concerned at a point in time when you are attempting to stave off an attack or achieve some strategic goal, then logic would dictate this issue should be exploited.

Now, in the past, I've addressed the strategically sensitive issue of the US and it's Allies having to deal with two major events taking place in the world at nearly the same point in time and the "difficulties" that would create.  

Current US doctrine states this is still the required capability of it's forces, but that is not really the issue.

The issue is and would be, are the American people ready for the sacrifices that would have to be made to execute this action?

Since the attack on September 11th 2001, the simple fact of the matter is, the American people, in mass, have forgotten their nation is a protracted conflict; a conflict that is far more complicated than dealing with radical religious zealots who have a death wish!

The family and friends of the members who have paid the price for this conflict feel the pain it has caused with every day of their lives, but the American people have all gone back to watching " Dancing with the Stars" or Duck Dynasty..... and rightfully so given this is what those who paid the price of this conflict fought and are fighting for.

But that is where the problem becomes one that must not be ignored.

Perception:

How often has the concept of "Perception" been discussed in this modern, Social media based world?

As the leadership of Iran and North Korea looking into the crystal ball of "risk".... the risk of pushing their combined Nuclear Weapons programs too far...... what do they see in terms of "resolve"?

Now, what do I mean by "resolve"?

Are these two Enemies of the West judging the "resolve" of their opponents, mainly the US, on what is said by it's politicians or it's Generals?

How do we get into the minds of their decision makers?

How do we do, what we in the West have historically been terrible at, and that  is "reading the intent of our enemies?

Our history shows us we base a huge part of or "intent analysis process" on the visual..... Satellites and other electronic devices. " It doesn't 'appear' they are doing this or doing that'.."!!!!

As the US ratcheted up and then attempted  to ratchet down the war of words this week, what impact did this have on the "intent" process in Iran and North Korea?

Did we make things better or worse???

Do we even know??

If so, how did we base it???

Satellites???

For all of the technological advancements we have made in the past few decades, we have done very little in the field of reading someone's "intent"!!

So, lets go back to the original question.

Does Iran and North Korea think the West, namely the US have the stomach for a war unlike any we have seen since the last Korean war?

Do they believe the West, US, has the willpower to deal with Iran and North Korea at the same time?

I, like the rest, have no way of reading 'intent", but sometimes you have to go with pure "gut feelings" as often our political leaders must do, and this time my gut tells me both these nations are going to push their issues to the brink and it is historically at this "brink" point that tragic often unintended events take place!!!

Perception and intent........... Two words whose meaning holds the fate of yet another terrible conflict.

NORTH KOREA NEXT STEP... IS IT TRULY THEIRS TO TAKE?

Going to take another break from my area of interest tonight to talk about the continuing saga called North Korea.

Now, I have brought up the issue of Iran and North Korea several times in the past year, so tonight I will take the North Korean issue in another hypothetical direction.

Before I give my opinion on why I believe North Korea may not determine its own fate, let me make one very important analogy!

In this militarily, technologically advanced world there is simply nothing more dangerous than a young, unbalanced extremely paranoid dictator.

Assigning rational actions an individual  who would all likelihood is completely irrational is a very dangerous gamble.

The constant "chatter" that North Korea's doing nothing more than "saber rattling" for the sake of gaining attention or forming a stronger leverage point for negotiations with the United States is quite honestly adding fuel to the fire.......... fire that burns inside the mind of a young dictator!

Is there anything more dangerous than laughing at or ignoring mental patient with a gun in her hand?

Okay, back to my main discussion for this evening.

As I often do, I would like to play the "what if game" once again.

What if?

What if, as I stated before, the real puppetmaster behind this North Korean crisis is the Chinese?

What if?

What if the Chinese have grown tired of their North Korean proxy fighter who no longer fits into the long-term plans of the current Chinese leadership?

What if?

What if China is come to realize that the true trading partner on the peninsula is South Korea and that the 25 million individuals of North Korea hold little to no economic value to the Chinese world economy?

What if?

What if the Chinese government understands the long term impact of solving the Korean Peninsula crisis and thus neutralizing United States stands remaining in the region?

What if?

What if the new leader of North Korea were to suddenly be removed a group of North Korean generals who truly work for their Chinese masters?

What if?

What if the peacekeeping force that would enter a collapse North Korean government is one of the Chinese military that has pre-coordinated such events behind closed doors with both the South and "others"?

What if?

What if the Chinese government took the North Korean crisis as an opportunity to show the US and the rest of the world new and improved Chinese military capability yet wrapped it in the disguise of a human sanctioned peacekeeping force in the collapsed North Korean government?

Dissolve this sound ridiculous?

If you ask "talking heads" in the Western media they would probably be willing to give their opinion for a fee, as always!

The Chinese are the masters of long-term deep, detailed planning expiration point

 Young paranoid leader of North Korea may not be marching to the master plan of the Chinese government, but he is easily predictable enough to be manipulated by most complex planning organization in the world; the Chinese government!

So, what if?

SYRIAN FUEL AND LEBANON:

Ok, the issue of fuel status for the Syrian government and more importantly the Syrian Military has been discussed for months now, but the issue is becoming more and more visible.

Overland movements from Iraq are limited and even more difficult from Iran.

Overland movements from Lebanon have been taking place for some time now, but with the increased awareness of these movements has come the attempts to stop them.

What fuel can be moved by sea is the bulk issue and it is not out of the question these operations could become targets soon.

A simple law of warfare is taking place here... stop the ability of your enemy to maneuver and then simply move around them.

If the Syrian military takes priority for what processed fuel is left in Syria, remember the Rebels now own several key fuel facilities, those who are left supporting Assad can only interpret this as yet another sign of the pending doom at their doorstep.

Fuel is a critical issue for Assad and his military and the ability to supply him with enough fuel, especially aviation fuel, is a critical matter for Iran and Russia.

What flags fly on the ships that bring bulk fuel into the ports may be the only thing that is saving these facilities from coming under attack, but this protection may not last much longer.

The ability to slip into a port facility is not that difficult and the dramatic scene such an attack would create is more than enticing to the rebels.

It's simple to understand; fuel is becoming an issue that everyone anticipated it would become at some point in time.

Life is no longer "normal" even in downtown Damascus and the rationing of fuel is just another in a series of crushing blows to the Assad Regime.

A Land movement of diesel from Lebanon is critical to the Syrian Military and Hezbollah knows the pressure is on them to insure these movements can continue.

Bottom line; the fuel issue in Syria is a match ready to be struck in Lebanon.

THE "U.N" PLANS FOR POST ASSAD...........REALLY????

So the UN and Ban Ki-Moon are anticipating UN actions in a post Assad Syria?

I can't describe how disturbing that sounds to me!!!

Can someone please explain to me what it is the UN is capable of without major world powers being involved.... Europe.. The US, China, although they and Russia don't contribute a whole lot other than complaints when it comes to UN actions.

So what nations are going to step into the sectarian battlefield of Syria and "Police" the nation as the UN executes it's typical "support / cleanup" mission support?

Are the "Peace Keeping forces going to come from Africa... South America ... Asia??

Now, the UN might pull off it's typical rental of Third World troops... you know... the ones that get nearly two or three days of intense training before their country charges the UN some outrageous fee for deploying them... deploying based upon someone give them a ride to where they need to be.

Yep, you guessed it.... I don't put a great deal of stock in UN Operations and let's just say I have a great deal of experience on the topic!!!!

Lets look at another group that behind the scenes thinks this concept is as hilarious as I do....... and that would be the GCC!!.... We will not mention the " Two Bears"!!!

So, why has this conversation even come up????

I will tell you why.

Some inside the UN are beginning to understand just how quickly Assad could fall from power or worse yet.... leave for the safety of Iraq or Iran.

Nearly two years ago, I warned everyone that if the day came that Assad fell from power, it could and most likely would happen far faster than anyone anticipated.

If you go back on look at some of my post from the beginning of the Syrian conflict, you will see where I spoke of the dangers of a quick collapse.

Last week, I mentioned the tell tale  changes that were taking place  as we heard reports of very precise mortar attacks in the middle of Damascus.

In my mind and the minds of those like me, the signs brought on by this news was the true warning bell of a possible collapse.

Last year when the International Airport at Damascus became a prime target, the tide began to change and change dramatically.

It was then I spoke of the loss of confidence Assad's backers would begin to feel, to include the Russians and the Iranians.

Ok, let me stop playing, " I  told you so"... it does get old!!!

Here is what the UN is worried about and the news media / "experts" need to get it right and do so quickly.

When Assad falls, the crisis will grow ten fold!!!

Yep, many have said this, but they have been vague on why this statement is true.

Why will Syria slide into a full scale humanitarian disaster; one the UN will be powerless to stop or even marginalize?

Because those countries that have the capability to prevent such an event are not going to step up or at least not in time to prevent it from taking place.

Hunting missions for dangerous weapons will take priority of any other mission when that time comes.

Agreements will need to be reached on who is going to do what after Assad falls....PS.. I still think the threat of his own " loyal" members killing him is more than real!!! Namely Iran!!!

Here is the second issue the UN knows is going to take place soon after Assad's departure!

Hezbollah, or should I say the assault on Hezbollah!!!!

Does anyone think for a second the Sunni groups who concur Syria, the ones that know not to get too distracted by Lebanon, at least not yet, will not turn their attentions towards Lebanon and Hezbollah?

If not, you are fooling yourself.

It will be at that precise moment many of the nations sitting on the sidelines will have to make very difficult choices.

Let Lebanon slide into a sectarian civil war with Hezbollah at the center of the issue, or try some magic to keep the Sunni / Shia war from spreading.

Here comes the most difficult question and the one that everyone has struggled with from day on of the so called Arab Spring............. What to do about it????

So, If you are placing your bets on the actions of the UN, I would bet on a black number... the future of the UN solving this crisis is black!!

http://www.aljazeera.com/indepth/features/2013/04/2013411260451189.html

NORTH KOREA SHORT FOLLOW UP!!

I know I spend 99 percent of my time dealing with and talking about the Middle East, but as I did last night, I'm going to give a short update on what I believe to be significant on the topic of North Korea.

I have chosen to do so for one simple reason, I am sick and tired and frankly very disappointed in all the talk of North Korea's Missile / warhead capabilities.

For the sake of keeping things simple, I will get right to the point.

Everyone needs to stop talking about, "can the reach the US or can they not"?

Anyone who has ever set foot on the Korean Peninsula for the purpose of training to deal with North Korea will tell you what the North's real weapon is.

It's their Special Forces units and the largest network of Spies in the world.

When some "Talking Head", you know the ones.. the folks who say just what the media or social elites want to hear for the sake of appearing as yet another "expert" on the topic or promoting their next book / talking tour, comments on the inability of the North to "deliver" a nuclear weapon to the US mainland, you need to  walk away from the TV or computer screen.

Once again, the arrogance of the "West" trumps any logical assessment of what the North is capable of.

If the North stumbles, and that is exactly what I would anticipate they would do, into a conflict with the US and the South, then their ability to inflict maximum damage will not be based on their current stock of missiles.

Talk to the South Korean Military Commanders...... talk to the South Korean state police and see what keeps them up at night...hint... it's not North Korean Missiles.

So, then someone is bound to ask...." are their Special Forces" members capable of taking action in the US or on our Allies land"?????

Next stupid question please!!!

NORTH KOREA SAYS "STATE OF WAR"... SO.. WHAT DOES IT MEAN?

Now, I know several times in the past two years I have talked about the potential "relationship" between Iran and North Korea and I am still of a firm belief this "relationship" exist.

Having said that, let me take yet another stab at the "what if" game.

What if the North Koreans and the Iranians had a "deal" to stress the US and the West during a time of threat to ether North Korea or Iran?

As we all know, both have been front page news for months now and both have released their own version of threats towards the US..... Insert " The Enemy of my Enemy is my Friend" here!!!

Let me try to answer the basic question of, "Is this time different... Is the North Korean threat more believable or more dangerous this time around.

As you probably have heard time and time again in the past few days or weeks, most of the Talking Heads are still stuck on stupid!!!

Stupid being the canned answer of, "The North really doesn't want a real war with the US or South Korea"!!!!

I have two theories why this answer remains consistent.

1.  it's the "party line" that keeps the stock market from over reacting.

2.  Those that really have no clue what takes place in North Korea, other than cocktail parties with social elites, really do believe North Korea is afraid of generalized warfare.

Ok, after tearing down the accreditations of those who say North Korea will not "go over the edge", let me make an argument why I, like many who are like me, believe this time is truly different.

THE ART OF TALKING TOO MUCH:

First off, it's a simple fact of life that when people make huge statements about what they are willing and able to do and then such  things  so often..... Chicken Little..... everyone begins to simply ignore them.

This is, to some extent, where North Korea now finds itself.

Simply put.... too many threats with no action leads to being ignored.

Now, it's natural for men... ones that take this position..... to get upset when they realize they are being ignored and that often leads to them doing something totally unexpected.

LOSING OLD FRIENDS OR AT LEAST THINKING YOU ARE LOSING THEM:

As I commented on a few weeks ago, for decades the Chinese have been the backstop for the little Bully named North Korea....  " Teeth and Gums".

Well, it's now more than possible the North believes this relationship is at best waning.

It's no secret many of the Chinese news editorials in the past two or three months have hinted to the fact North Korea can no longer be allowed to shape the "destiny" of the Chinese people.

Simply put, I believe the North Korean leadership has the perception that China's future plans do not involve the wellbeing of North Korea.

Remember what I said the last time I talked about this issue.

China may very well see the end game with North and South Korea as a ends to justify the US leaving key locations in the Pacific.

A country of 1.4 Billion may be willing to see a limited war involving only 30 million, non Chinese, as a means of informing the US, when it's over, they no longer have a real reason to keep the force structure in the Pacific.

Now, would this work?

Probably not, but from the mindset of the Chinese or the perception of the North, they both make for a non typical dangerous environment this time around.

Before I go back to my theory of " Enemies of Enemies", let me make one off the cuff but justified statement.

Lets say you are a common North Korean citizen and you know that every day the best you and your children are going to do is split one bowl of rice, perhaps every other day!!!!

You also realize, trust me some do, that if a war does take place and the Northern government is defeated, then the aid that will flow into North Korea will be ten times what you receive day to day....

If you get where I am heading here, then you now know what most Chinese planers have worried about for years... a North Korean population that turns on it's own oppressive leadership as the country is devastated in a war with the US and South Korea.

If you blow this theory off, then you really don't understand the dynamics of the Korean Peninsula.

Back to the Enemy of my Enemy issue:

Before anyone questions why would Iran and North Korea agree to support each other in a time of crisis, let me ask one simple question.

Why not?

Tell me why Iran would not agree to watch the US absolutely struggle to deal with a generalized war on the Korean Peninsula at the same time Hezbollah is launching an all out attack into Israel from Lebanon?

What mystical event could prevent this from happening?

Why would it not be the most ideal time for Iran to preempt the pending attack on their nuclear weapons program... a program the North Koreans are helping with...????

So, you should get my point by now.

Simply saying " it cannot happen" or " It's not likely" is not good enough.

Someone show me tangible proof it's not going to happen!

Someone show me why President Bush was wrong when he labeled North Korea and Iran as an "Axes of Evil".. and if you say Bush was an idiot or a "cowboy" than you are too uniformed to really realize how the world works or just how really dangerous the world is!!!

http://www.cnn.com/2013/03/29/world/asia/north-korea-us-threats/index.html?hpt=hp_t1

THE GOLAN HEIGHTS.... WHAT IS THE ISSUE AND WHY?

As we continue to look at the issue of events in and around the Golan Heights, need to be focusing on who is creating this environment?

Is it the Syrian government's intention to create tensions in the Golan Heights?

Is it the Syrian rebel's intention to create tension in the Golan Heights?

Is it the Sunni radical fundamentalist units intention to create tensions in the Golan height?

Okay, you get the picture!

The issue is not the fact that tensions are growing in that region, but who is creating the tension and why!

Here's my stab at an answer.

I'm not convinced any of the parties involved is deliberately attempting to provoke an incident in the Golan Heights.

I grow more convinced with each passing day that the problem is based upon the lack of unified effort to ensure instance do not happen in the Golan Heights.

It's obvious the Israelis do not wish a confrontation in this area and is also even more obvious that the Israelis are preparing for potential confrontation in the same area.

Now, it's possible and maybe even highly probable that some splinter group, terrorist cell or cells, would take advantage of this control vacuum in the Golan Heights to stage a launching site for  operations into Israel.

I can almost guarantee you this is exactly the mindset that the Israeli military as of this moment in time.

Does this equate into the Syrian government condoning are supporting such an operation; probably not!

Some might argue that Assad would welcome the distraction of a limited Israeli/IDF/operation in that region in order to draw attention away from the conflict on Syrian soil and more importantly to draw Sunni radical fundamentalist groups resources into a battle with someone other than Assad's forces.

Personally, I think this concept is far-fetched.

The Golan Heights seems to be no different than many other regions bordering the Syrian conflict; increased lawlessness an opportunity waiting to happen.

Unlike the Turks and the Jordanians, Israel will remain far less tolerant of unexplained cross-border violence in the Golan Heights.

Although a deliberate action of provoking the Israelis may not be tactical plan of any one group at this moment in time, there are those who would leverage such an event if it were to happen; insert Iran here.

So, are the Golan Heights more dangerous than any other border region with Syria?

Yes!

You all sides truly understand the dangerous climate that continues to develop and the Golan Heights?

Again, the answer is yes.

Finally, our all parties involved working diligently to ensure that such an escalation does not take place?

I'm afraid the answer to that resides in Tehran; or as the old saying goes, "only the Shadow knows"!!!

http://www.jpost.com/Defense/UN-concerned-Syria-war-spilling-over-into-Golan-307921