HEZBOLLAH / JABHAT AL-NUSRA... IT'S MORE THAN THAT!!

 Attached is a great article that, in my opinion, misses the most important theory as to why this conflict is going to take place.

The concept that both sides of this pending fight have a "Master Plan" as to when and how this event will take place gives, in my opinion, far too much credit to both.

In reality, the true issue is the simple fact that no one has the ability to prevent it from taking place.

Forget the concept of a Master Plan for a NUSRA ..HEZBOLLAH fight and think more along the lines of small, factional groups on the Sunni side simply provoking localized clashes with little "Master Planning" from any key leadership.

Does Iran want a conflict to take place right now that would spell Civil War for Lebanon?

Does Saudi or Egypt or the West?

Would any of these isolate, nearly street level units, have the mindset to listen to anyone's guidance?

Here is the reality!!

The lawless landscape of Syria has become a modern day setting for " Mad Max" than anyone wants to admit.

Inadvertent clashes spinning into a regional conflict; that's the fear and has been for almost two years.  

Now, are "regional players" ready for such an event?

Does Iran have a plan for a Lebanon on fire?

Does Egypt..... Turkey.... Jordan.... the GCC????

Don't count on it.

The ability to control anything going on in or around Syria becomes more and more distant with each passing day.

Lebanon is facing a calamity they are nearly powerless to prevent..

Jordan will watch in a complete state of horror as Lebanon falls into  turmoil all the while imploring the GCC members to prevent an event they have no chance or perhaps even desire to stop!!

It's sounds like a broken record to almost all of us who watch the region, but the truth will not go away.

A Sunni / Shia conflict inside of Lebanon is nearly unavoidable.

The other fact that remains unchanged, is the issue of what are the regional players willing and more importantly able to do once this travesty takes place?

Last but certainly not least..... what is Israel willing to put up with?

http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2013/03/jabhat-al-nusra-hezbollah-confrontation.html

GOLAN HEIGHTS AND THE SYRIAN CONFLICT. WHAT DOES IT MEAN?

let me start by stating I doubt seriously the UN and it's contributing partners are considering pulling the Peace Keeping Mission after this weeks kidnapping event.

The fact the individuals were returned so quickly is a strong indication of just how important everyone involved realize this event was.

Now, there's no mistaking you and marked vehicles and individuals anyone other than what they truly are, so the fact that they were taken not be ruled as a "mistake".

What troubles everyone is the realization that this action is an indication of just how leaderless this region of Syria has become.

There's been a great deal of talk about the Syrian military troops that had been removed from this area and the fact that it would create a "vacuum" which Israel's enemies could quickly fill.

One theory I think we can put the bed quickly is the concept that this action took place in order to create a vacuum on the Israeli border for Israelis enemies be in position to conduct operations inside of Israel.

Even if this was the intent of some Islamic fundamentalist/Palestinian/operational group, it obviously did not have the support from their higher authorities.

In short, it is my opinion that a small economist group took it upon themselves to put their name on the map by kidnapping group of unarmed United Nations peacekeepers; in fact they did just that for no one had heard of their group prior to this event, at least no one in the open press.

So what does this event really mean to us?

Does it indicate just how destabilize the Syrian border has become in the Golan Heights?

Absolutely!

Does it indicate Israel will have to further deploy the IDF in order to ensure its safety?

The answer is, to some degree yes.

Another important question needs to be asked is the issue of, id this event change anything?

I'm sure it has rekindled the conversation of United Nations peacekeeper safety, especially unarmed peacekeepers; the concept that I find utterly ridiculous myself!

In the eyes of the Israelis, as emotional as this event may have become, they will not overreact.

With the current issues in Syria and the pending election crisis in Lebanon and now the new fires in Egypt, this kidnapping event will quickly fall from the headlines.

The attached article speaks to the IDF's training exercises include its reserve forces for pending as blah operations and I find that topic far more important in this blip on the UN radar.

No one should doubt that the Israelis understand the vulnerabilities of Hezbollah this moment in time and the strategic value of their neutralization to the Iranian government.

Simply put, Hezbollah is vulnerable and they know it and the Iranians know and most importantly the Israelis know it.

The election law controversy Lebanon is easily the spark that could ignite a Sunni Shia civil war yet again; simply put it could be the excuse needed by those who would like to see this event take place.

Oddly enough I'm not convinced at this moment in time that group includes the Israelis.

How the Israelis deal with Hezbollah and one poorly when they deal with Hezbollah the topic only the IDF and its leadership truly knows.

If conflict would break out in Lebanon, with that become the trigger for the IDF to engage Hezbollah forces?

Would Israel take the opportunity of chaos in Lebanon to pull away most important proxy fighter of the Iranian government.

Hezbollah must avoid violence in Lebanon at all cost, but the ability to do so is fading fast.

In my opinion the time has come to put a great deal of effort reviewing the classic "second and third order effects" and the "law of unintended consequences"!

Winter weather soon to leave the region and the warmth of spring makes it conducive for young men to fight even more.

With the heat of the day comes the anger of prejudice and bigotry and hopelessness and these are the major ingredients in the conflicted Arias  of Lebanon.

http://www.jpost.com/Defense/Article.aspx?id=305748

ARE THE WHEELS COMING OFF THE MORSI' BUS?? AGAIN???

I've said this time and time again about Mr. Morrissey, but I will say it again; he continues to realize it is far easier to complain and ridicule that is to lead!

It's fairly common knowledge that the Egyptian military is at best "uncomfortable" in totally supporting the current government of Egypt; and in reality the Muslim brotherhood.

Today's announcement that the Egyptian police are in fact going on strike in several key cities is only compounded by the reality that the Egyptian military is not in the Morsi camp.

As if this news was not bad enough for the current Egyptian government, today's announcement by the Egyptian electoral commission that the elections that Mr. Morsi were counting on have now been indefinitely postponed can only be categorized as a disaster!

Is becoming more and more apparent that Morsi's control of Egypt is slipping away.

Leftists and socialist and secretarial members of the Egyptian society may truly be seeing a window of opportunity to deal with the Muslim brotherhood.

The danger for Egypt and its president is the reality that the Islamist fundamentalist also smell "blood in the water" and its Morsi' blood they smell!

For all the social trauma that may be taking place in Egypt at this moment in time, the economic turbulence is not far behind.

Not only does the Egyptian president have the social unrest breathing down his neck, but he also has the IMF placing nearly impossible requirements upon his governments economic actions.

Simply put, Egypt is once again is unstable and leaderless as it ever has been in the past two years.

With the way things are going, how much longer before we begin to hear people saying "I remember the days of Mubarak and they weren't that bad"!

http://www.aljazeera.com/news/middleeast/2013/03/2013372101110747.html

https://now.mmedia.me/lb/en/mena/egypt-police-strike-want-out-of-politics

THE END FOR HUGO CHAVEZ, BUT WHAT ABOUT IRAN'S MASTER  PLAN?

 the death of Hugo Chavez came as no surprise anyone who has been following his story.

It especially did not come as a surprise to the Iranian government, who up until the time of his announced illness was completely counting on their long-term relationship with the Venezuelan leader.

So, with the passing of Hugo what becomes of the Iranian Venezuelan relationship?

How does Iran ensure its desired plan of meddling in the United States backyard?

What becomes of the " Distraction Action for South America"?????

Over the course of the last several months, it's become  evident that Iran is attempting to leverage future relationships in Central and South America as witnessed by the recent announcement with the Argentinean government.

Now, Iran's leadership has known for quite some time of Hugo Chavez's medical condition, so we can assume that alternative plans for meddling in Central and South America are well thought out.

What Iran cannot count on is the continued support of Venezuela!

No one left in Venezuelan government has the charisma and the intoxicating charm that Hugo Chavez had.

The concept that Hugo Chavez's hand-picked successor will have an easy time of assuming and maintaining power in Venezuela is a risky assumption at best.

It is very possible that Iran fully realizes that its next "partner" in the region will be someone other than the Venezuelan people, but will it "work"???

How much of the Venezuelan military is truly loyal to the successor of Hugo Chavez is the most important question at hand.

How quickly Venezuela can even attempt to regain some semblance of normality is also the question at hand.

Simply put, Iran lost a true partner today based upon the age old, timeless adage of "the enemy of my enemy is my friend".

In short, yet another setback for the Iranian leadership!

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-latin-america-21679053

SPILLOVER... IRAQ TAKES A CHANCE!!!

  So, Syrian soldiers were killed on Iraqi soil today?

Allegedly, Iraqi forces were also killed in this ambush expiration point

Is it news that Iraqi forces are supporting Syrian regular military?

Obviously the answer is no.

Is it new that the Syrian rebels\freedom fighters\when ambush Syrian regulars on a rocky land?

Yes it is!

Last week the issue was Hezbollah forces operating along and inside of the Lebanese border and this week it is now Syrian forces operating and fighting from Iraqi soil.

So, it's no wonder once again the topic at the United Nations today was the overwhelming fear of a "spreading conflict".

No one truly believes that this event on Iraqi land is the opening salvo of Iraqi regular forces supporting Syrian regime.

But, is yet another indication of how volatile the region has become.

Rounds have fallen in Turkey, Israel, Jordan, Iraq and Lebanon so the event stated above although alarming is not the beginning of a greater conflict.

The ability to contain conflict within the borders of Syria is not an issue of keeping other nationstates out of the fight as much as it is keeping them from overreacting to embarrassing situations such as the one that took place on Iraqi land.

I am still very condensed that none of Syria's neighbors truly wish to be involved in the conflict that engulf Syria, but sending the right message involves the fine art of not over or under reacting.

Is newsworthy is this event may have been, I'm still convinced the true issue at hand is Lebanon and the actions of Hezbollah wrapped in a Shia Sunni conflict.

Simply put, this Iraqi event is newsworthy for a day or so, but in the end is simply just another indication of how fluid events in Syria truly are.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-21658859

LEBANON.. HOLDING ON, BUT FOR HOW LONG?

I continue to make the situation in Lebanon the centerpiece of my comments on the Middle East and for good reason.

As I and many others have stated for over a year now,  the reality of a Sectarian conflict in Lebanon is event that will plunge the region into a real crisis.

Sheikh Ahmad Assir continues to be the primary trigger for any potential sectarian civil war.

The election law continues to be the emotional topic that polarizes both sides of the Lebanese society.

These two issues continue to develop "the perfect storm" environment for Lebanon.

Hezbollah's desperate attempt to blame the West for the destabilizing environment in Lebanon is falling on deaf ears.

The simple fact of the matter is a growing number of fo Sunni llowers of Assir are growing more and more confident that the time is right to push the Shia Hezbollah out of Lebanon.

Lebanon has two potential triggers for open hostilities.

One, would be the delay of the elections based upon a stalemate on the  controversial election law issue.

The second  would be an open conflict between the followers of Assir and the backers of Hezbollah.

As to who is to blame for continually destabilizing Lebanon, that answer may soon be irrelevant.

Prevention will soon give way to the reality of "limitation"!

Limiting the damage of the sectarian conflict in Lebanon could prove to be just as difficult as preventing the event itself from taking place.

It's true, that some quietly are hopeful this might take place, such as the present of Syria.

It's also true that many are praying this crisis does not take place expiration point

The fate of Lebanon is and remains in the hands of the Lebanese people, tensions have risen to the point that determining who starts the conflict now be difficult to determine, but also become nearly impossible to prevent.

Simply put, Lebanon is closer to the edge and has been in there is not a lot of room left.

http://www.dailystar.com.lb/News/Local-News/2013/Mar-04/208702-khalil-calls-on-citizens-to-protect-lebanese-resistance.ashx#axzz2MXMgYi62

http://www.dailystar.com.lb/News/Politics/2013/Mar-04/208705-berri-rules-out-elections-without-new-electoral-law.ashx#axzz2MXMgYi62

A THIRD INTIFADA AND AN EXPLOSIVE  LEBANON!!!!

For the past several days have I've been watching two potentially explosive events unfold in the Middle East.

Both are truly issues that had been simmering for quite some time, yet both seem to be rising to a boiling point nearly simultaneously.

The reality that the unification of Fatah and Hamas is becoming more and more a distant dream and the fact that both Israel and the GCC nations are content with this result is all leading to a boiling point in both Gaza and the West Bank.

As dangerous, ominous, as this Palestinian issue may be, the potential of a sectarian civil war in Lebanon actually overshadows this Palestinian meltdown.

Rumors over the past few days dealing with the overall leadership of Hezbollah, Nasrallah's health and the alleged attack on his number two man inside of Syria, have created an environment that Lebanon seems ill prepared to deal with.

The situation in Lebanon has not changed.

The Sunni/Shia hostilities could be reaching a boiling point that may be impossible to contain.

The issue of electoral law conflict inside of Lebanon accompanied by the open threats of hostilities towards each other is pushing Lebanon to the brink.

Point well taken today in many discussions was the simple reality that many of those who in the past have spent the energy in the capital to keep Lebanon from exploding into its historical civil wars, just don't have the wherewithal to deal with the Lebanese issue simultaneously with Syria, Egypt, Iran etc. etc.....

Simply put, those that prevented Lebanon from exploding in the past you not seem to be prepared to prevent it from happening this time around.

So, the threat of a third intifada nearly simultaneously taking place as the spread of the sectarian civil war into Lebanon is now moreover threat than any time in recent history.

Is dangerous and complex as this may be to understand, just imagine what this must mean to the Israeli government and the positioning of the IDF?

Hamas and Fatah are locked in a potentially dangerous power struggle surrounded by even more radical Islamic fundamentalist groups such as Palestinian Islamic Jihad while all the time Shia and Sunni inside of Lebanon pair for open conflict.

If you think this sounds like a recipe for disaster, you're absolutely right expiration point

So what is the solution?

How do we avoid to catastrophic events happening nearly simultaneously stacked on top of the tragedy called Syria?

Well, this is a classic example of being bettered asking questions and giving answers.

Every day the Middle East shows the world new twist in greater dangers not only to the region but to the overall health of the world economy.

If the old superpowers not pulling in the same direction on this one, that I don't see how all of this ends in a peaceful manner.

Oh yeah, in the middle of all this sits in Egypt on the edge of crisis yet again!

http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2013/02/hasan-nasrallah-sick-hezbollah-lebanon-electoral-law.html

http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2013/02/hamas-figure-salah-bardawil-interview.html