HEZBOLLAH.. THE FORCE THAT MUST BE DEALT WITH!!

First off, the concept that the EU nations are concerned over labeling has balls a terrorist organization for the sake of Lebanon borderlines on the ridiculous expiration point

I guess the theory that if the EU limits the funding for Hezbollah, then Hezbollah will make "trouble" for Lebanon and perhaps others!

Really?

This is the strategic thinking of nation states and the European Union?

So, in order to keep the bully happy, give him your lunch money and he will pick on anyone in the cafeteria.

The concept didn't work when we were in school and it won't work with Hezbollah!

If this is going to be the opinion, the official opinion, of the European Union than I would imagine all possibilities of the special tribunal on Lebanon\STL\coming to any true resolution is a pipe dream.

If we follow the European Union's thought process, then convicting Hezbollah members in the STL trials might once again "lead to the destabilization of Lebanon"!

Hezbollah is exactly what we all know it to be.

It is has been and will remain a proxy weapon of the Iranian government.

It is the specialized operations unit of the Shia movement that is exactly how the Sunnis and the rest of the world see them.

Backing up on Hezbollah simply will not work and I am very confident that the EU has heard this time and time again already.

As I commented on yesterday, increasing operations in plain view of the Hezbollah forces in Syria is a clear indication of how the organization intends to operate with the obvious impunity.

With the pending elections in Lebanon and Iran it appears most of the world is utterly unwilling to deal with the actions of the Iranian puppet known as Hezbollah.

Before the Hezbollah leadership finds comfort in the reluctance of the Western world, they need to remember not all nations in the region feel the same as Europe.

If Lebanon becomes a casualty of the Syrian conflict, and to some degree it already has, then those responsible will necessarily need the ones with guns in her hands.

Reluctance he is often the father of conflict.

I'll be the first to admit finding a comprehensive way to deal with the issue of Hezbollah terrorist and their apparent grip on the Lebanese government is a daunting task to say the least.

Is without question a dangerous thing to contemplate the neutralization process against Hezbollah.

Unfortunately the theory of "kicking the can down the street" at this moment in time is probably far more dangerous.

http://www.jpost.com/MiddleEast/Article.aspx?id=303847

HEZBOLLAH MORE BOLD THAN EVER INSIDE SYRIA.

Is not earth shattering news that   Hezbollah operational on Syrian land.

Is not earth shattering news  Hezbollah is trying everything its powers to prevent rebel support coming from Lebanon; given the fact Hezbollah believes they own Lebanon!

Nevertheless, the openness of this series of assaults referred to in the two attached news articles is a noteworthy change in their tactics.

If someone does not believe that has balls actions or something out of the ordinary, they need only look at the reactions of the March 14 group.

Mentioning Hezbollah's activities in the GCC nations is the March 14 groups attempt to keep the broader picture of Hezbollah  operations in focus.

Mentioning the events of Hezbollah in Bulgaria is intended to have the same effect.

But, the fact of the matter is the recent activities by Hezbollah on the Syrian/Lebanese border are truly what has March 14 and those groups that support them, mainly Sunnis, upset.

Those that wish to support the rebels based in Lebanon understand all too well the first obstacle to overcome is the Lebanese-based Hezbollah.

The fact that these Hezbollah operations were coordinated with Syrian military members not go unnoticed with the Sunnis of Lebanon.

It is simply a worn-out statement when someone talks to the issue of potential conflict inside of Lebanon based on the destabilized events in Syria.

The fact of the matter is, there's been an undeclared hostile environment inside of Lebanon for well over a year.

The Lebanese military and the ruling government have tried to the best of their ability to appear in partial when in fact everyone knows the current Lebanese government's Pro Shia and thus pro-Syria.

The oil shipment protest this week speak to the truth when it comes to the current government of Lebanon and don't believe for a single minute that the Sunnis of Lebanon or Syria under estimate the true intent of the Lebanese government.

What does seem to be changing is the openness which the current leadership in Lebanon seems to be portraying.

Again, the issue of oil being sent to Syria is far more indicative of the degrading environment inside of Lebanon and most people realize.

It was one thing for the Lebanese government could claim impartiality as they attempted to keep peace in their nation.

Is quite another to openly be supporting Syria and yet be as unrealistic enough to imagine being perceived as "impartial" expiration point

Yes, Lebanon or at least Lebanon's current government is beginning to show their true hand and this will have repercussions for all the people Lebanon.

It's more than ironic that a government that openly pursues the perception of impartiality is now become so totally bias!

I have to really wonder if the current government Lebanon truly understands the repercussions and the pending elections at their current actions may have!

http://www.dailystar.com.lb/News/Politics/2013/Feb-19/207007-march-14-psp-slam-hezbollah-activities-in-syria.ashx#axzz2LG7lObS5

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-21496735

NORTH KOREA AND IRAN... THE TOPIC COMES UP AGAIN!

Well, once again the topic of North Korea Iranian cooperation in a nuclear weapons program seems to surface in the media once again.

For anyone that has followed by opinions of actions in the Middle East, it will be more than aware of my suspicions.

Rumors upon rumors continue to unfold over the nuclear weapons test Iva North Koreans actually being conducted for the Iranian government.

The debate over the relationship between Iran and North Korea go on for an indefinite period of time, but it would not impact one simple fact.

That one simple fact is this; a weapon developed designed and assembled and North Korea would have virtually no chance of being shipped to Iran.

If we completely leave out the concept of a Western led intervention to such a shipment, we are still left with absolute reality of the Israelis never allowing such a transfer to take place matter what the cost.

Remember, is the IDF has flown combat missions in Africa to deny far less important weapons traffic movement.

If the Iranians are supporting and North Korean warhead development and even missile redevelopment, it will not leave them a functional weapon being transferred from one country to the other.

Now, it's easy to get lost in the technical guessing game of weapons development and nation state support each other in such development.

What continues to concern me is not the technical side of any possible relationship between North Korea and Iran.

As I stated before, I concern continues to be mutual "plan" that could be implemented by these two nations in support of each other in the time of a crisis!

Without running the risk of repeating myself, again, I would simply state the technical agreement is not really the issue at hand.

Concept of "mutual aid" is always been a complex issue at the international, political level.

An Iranian/North Korean mutual support agreement in time of crisis is a concept that still concerns me greatly.

These two nations continue to exemplify one of the oldest sayings nationstate conflict; "the enemy of my enemy is my friend"!

Rest of the world must avoid a classic case of not being a mother see the forest through the trees when it comes to the issue of technical support a nuclear weapons development between North Korea and Iran.

If these two nations truly have an agreement, the real question revolves around to what level of support this agreement speaks to?

To state that dealing with a North Korean conflict simultaneously with Iranian conflict would be more than challenging for the rest of the world is a dramatic understatement.

No one probably understands this better than the North Koreans and the Iranians.

So, whatever is taking place between Iran and North Korea, must be anticipated and planned for as quickly as possible.

Am I more convinced now that a simultaneous North Korean/Iranian conflict could take place sometime in the near future?

I'm not sure.

What I am sure of, is that two known enemies of the Western world are working together in both are ruled by a rational and highly dangerous leaders!

http://www.jpost.com/IranianThreat/News/Article.aspx?id=303499

SNAPSHOT FOR WEEK ENDING FEB 17 2013.

I am going to make a real effort to start creating a "snapshot" on Saturdays, like I used to do little over a year ago.

Having said that, let's get down to it!

Lebanon:

The discussions this week on the election law guidelines along with the movement of oil from Lebanon into Syria made up the bulk of the discussions concerning Lebanon.

As emotional and potentially dangerous as the fuel support operations conducted by Lebanon towards Assad, is actually the election law issue that has everyone truly concerned.

When will the Lebanese elections take place and under what laws will it execute?

A delay in the elections themselves would prove more than dangerous for the overall stability of Lebanon and is for that reason I am somewhat convinced the delay will not take place.

If a final disposition of election laws is not agreed upon, the concerns of Hezbollah and their supporters will most likely be the main topic of discussion in the coming week.

Simply put, Lebanon could easily become an issue pushes the forefront in the coming week, if not now!

Bahrain:

Those that follow the Middle East know all too well how involved the Iranians truly are in the social turmoil's involving the government of Bahrain.

As tense as issues may be in Bahrain, the death of a protester this week was an event that should have been avoidable for Bahrain.

The big picture for Bahrain is simple; Iran was to apply as much pressure inside of Bahrain and eventually on the GCC as possible.

Now, the fact that Iran is trying so desperately to accomplish this task is no excuse for Bahrain's mismanagement of the protest to take place there.

Bahrain is, was, and continues to be a slow burning fuse that Iran would love to see explode in the GCC desperately wants to avoid.

The counter actions of the government of Bahrain are less coordinated and less effective than a more simplistic tactic of the GCC applying counter pressure on Iran.

Simply put, it's easy for the GCC the counterstrike that it is for them to find a viable option for Bahrain.

Having said that, we can anticipate some type of "tit-for-tat" reprisal in the near future, most likely in Syria.

Syria: 

Several times this week I actually laughed out loud as I read articles dealing with the identified Syrian government in exile and how they were planning for a post Assad Syria.

With each passing day, it becomes more and more clear who really is winning the war in Syria and it is not anyone closely associated with this " recognized: / new Syrian government.

My laughter was quickly interrupted by the death of the Iranian General on Syrian ground.

Iran has openly been in support of Assad from day one, but this event and the public response it generated from key Iranian leaders was more than a signal of the increased / open / operations inside Syria.

My other comment on this event is based upon my changing viewpoint on how this event took place.

Finding such a target in the open with a PSD / Personal Security Detail/ as advanced as this General would have had, is a real indication that the theory of the Israelis taking him out may not be that farfetched.

Even if the Israelis are not responsible for his death, it is nearly impossible to convince Iranian leadership they didn't.  

As I stated a few days ago, it's an event that will lead to some level of Iranian response.

If they truly wished to cover up his existence in Syria, they would not have said the things about him that came out at his funeral.

As is always the case in international politics, the message was in the message!!!

Egypt:

This one is simple; Morsi has to question the support of the Egyptian Military now more  than ever.

His attempt at purging the General Officer ranks last year may not have produced the results he had anticipated.

It's clear the thirty years of relationships between the Egyptian military and the military of Israel / IDF / goes deeper than just a few senior Generals.

Blocking the Hamas Headquarters issue and flooding the tunnels leading into Gaza are clear indications not only to Israel, but to Morsi himself on just were the Egyptian Military stands.

The current unrest in Egypt may be keeping Morsi up at night, but I can guarantee you the fear of Egyptian Military loyalty is a far greater nightmare right now for not only Mr Morsi, but for the Muslim Brotherhood as well.

What to look for in the coming week:

The battle for Damascus is something I truly believe is being severely underestimated.

If Assad's Brother's unit is damaged beyond levels we are currently aware of, Damascus could fall like Saigon!!!!

As many have said for some time now, Assad's propensity to utilize his chemical weapons will never be more pressing then the rapid fall of central Damascus.

Could this happen this week?

I believe the rebels are much closer to taking Damascus than the common "Joe" realizes.

The other possible  big event that could unfold this coming week is Hezbollah.

The message Israel sent by striking the movement in Syria was unmistakable.

If Assad and Iran wanted to try to prevent the big Push for Damascus, then forcing an issue inside of Lebanon could be just the ticket.

THE KILLING OF GENERAL HASSAN SHATERI.

Okay, first off it's absolutely ridiculous referred to this individual as someone in charge of "construction" efforts is absolutely ludicrous!

The true depiction of Shateri is actually mentioned by the Iranians when they refer to him as someone who is just as important as the now deceased  Mugniyah.

The other issue that was absolutely predictable was linking this general's death to "Zionist guns for hire"!

You see, it's far easier to blame once again the Zionist and their backers than to come to the realization that an Iranian special operations general was killed on Syrian soil by Sunni Arabs in a civil war with Shia Persian backed Arabs.

Once we get past the ridiculous story of why this individual was in Syria, we need to recognize what this event could actually lead to.

The embarrassment to the Iranian leadership will quickly give way to the anger of Suleimani!

This guy is the real deal!

For him to be notified that one of his loyal generals has been gunned down inside of Syria is an issue he will not take lightly and more than likely you will not let go unpunished.

If anyone has forgotten, Suleimani is undoubtedly the person that is actually calling the shots in the Syrian conflict.

How these general was found and targeted was surely the priority question he asked of his staff.

If there is one redeeming factor to this event from the standpoint of escalation, it's the fact that this individual was killed on Syrian soil and not inside Lebanon.

Which direction Shateri was traveling when he was killed is insignificant.

Is damaging to the Iranians as it might be that he was killed on Syrian soil and the image that portrays to the rest of the world, things would have been far worse if this event would have taken place inside Lebanon.

Putting all of these issues aside, this event strikes yet another chapter in the Syrian conflict.

It is common knowledge the Iranians have been heavily involved inside of Syria from the beginning of this conflict, but the death of one of their senior military leaders who is not retired on how "pilgrimage" to some site in Syria is more than an ominous sign.

Iran has little to deny and it seems that almost unwilling to make up even an acceptable story as to why this individual would be on Syrian soil.

Simply put, it appears the Iranians no longer are concerned about the world's opinion of Koran functioning inside of Syria in support of Assad!

If there's anything to take away from the story, it's the way the Iranian leadership addressed the event in the open press.

Comparing Shateri three slaying Hezbollah hero is more than a hint that Iran no longer is willing to hide their open support for Assad!

Finally, this event will not go unpunished and the level of the reprisal will give us a very good indication of how comfortable the Iranians are with openly supporting Assad.

http://www.jpost.com/Defense/Article.aspx?id=303371

NOBODY IN EGYPT LOVES HAMAS ANYMORE???

Sometimes, governments send messages, in this case the Egyptian military, in ways that can't be overlooked if you're not paying attention.

The flooding of the Gaza Strip tunnels has an impact on the population inside Gaza, but the real message is to Hamas!

The denial of Hamas headquarters in Cairo is also a message from the Egyptian military.

So, let me ask a simple question.

Do these two events signal that the Egyptian military is one, not on the side of the Muslim brotherhood, and more importantly not in favor of supporting Hamas?

You see, it appears Egyptian military is actually sent to messages.

One is to the West and the second, in my opinion more importantly, to the brotherhood; "we still call the shots in Egypt"!

Make no mistake, these two rather remarkable yet apparently overlooked events seem to be sending a clear signal from Egypt's military.

Over the course of the last several weeks I've heard many individuals asked the question as to why the United States continues to send arms to the Egyptian military.

Could it be that the US government know something most others simply don't grasp?

Could the delivery of arms to the Egyptian military be taking place because the West understands the Egyptian military is still on "their side"?

One thing is for sure, Hamas in very short order is come to realize where they stand with the Egyptian military.

Quite honestly, there is a price for Hamas to pay for supporting terrorist operations in the Sinai and the loss of Egyptian military lives did not go unnoticed.

So what will become of the tunnel operations in the Gaza?

It appears not all the tunnels have been affected and quite honestly this event is probably nothing more than "messaging".

Denying Hamas headquarters in Cairo is also nothing more than "messaging"!

You can rest assured that both of these events did not go unnoticed by Iran and the brotherhood!

It also did not go unnoticed by the Israeli government.

The dynamics of Egypt became evident several weeks ago has its military appeared slow to react to the protest against the current government.

These two new events are further indications that all is not lost in the struggle for control of Egypt.

The Muslim brotherhood realizes today more than it did yesterday just how difficult it is to "rule".

I have spoken the past about the relationships that have developed between the IDF and the Egyptian military over the past 30 years and how these relationships cannot be overlooked.

None of these actions equate into smooth waters for Egypt, but they do give a clear indication of just how difficult certain organizations can make day-to-day life for the Muslim brotherhood.

I'm anxious to see the reactions of Hamas's leadership over these two events and I would have loved to been a fly on the wall when the phones began to ring between Hamas and the Muslim brotherhood.

http://www.jpost.com/Headlines/Article.aspx?id=303168

http://www.jpost.com/MiddleEast/Article.aspx?id=303159

ISLAMIC JIHAD... JUST LIKE I SAID!!!

A few days ago, I commented on the dangers of Hamas and Fatah not reconciling their differences and how the more radical elements in the movement would rise to the forefront even to the point of circumventing both of them.

Today when I read this article, it became even clear to me that my theory is right on track.

The pressure that Islamic Jihad is placing upon Hamas is nothing new and yet the danger of this movement rising to the forefront grows with each passing day.

Concept of violent overthrow becoming the norm in the region and that will only embolden the Islamic Jihad to continue in uncompromising path.

Internal infighting for power and prestige keeps some of the organizations such as this one off balance, but that will not last forever and that will not prevent them are those like them from continuing to pressure Hamas and Fatah.

Now, it seems outrageous a conversation could be held in which Hamas is painted is somewhat of a rational operation!

As I said before, I in no way condone the actions are the tactics of Hamas, but the simple fact of the matter is their operations in organizations that feel even Hamas is too forgiving and too compromising.

This may be a confusing concept in the West, but it is not to the Israelis or the Arab leaders in the region.

Groups like Islamic Jihad continued to provide the rest of us an excellent measuring point as to just how dire events are becoming.

I would be interested to see the recruiting process inside Islamic Jihad and to obtain what their growth has been in the past 12 months.

When radical extremist organizations become the "flavor of the day" in Syria, then the popularity and prestige of joining groups like Islamic Jihad can only grow.

Okay, make this as simple as we can.

If those organizations that have the ability to "negotiate" cannot find a way to come to some level of understanding, then chaos is not far behind them!

The other dire problems of the region will face is the inability of all parties involved to admit our work towards a nonviolent partnership for the Palestinian cause.

It is and it will remain virtually impossible to convince the Israeli government a relationship between Fatah and Hamas will bring anything positive to the table.

Unfortunately, I probably agree with them!

The difference between Hamas and Islamic Jihad and those like Islamic Jihad is defined in terms insignificant most outsiders.

The drive for power and prestige and yes...... wealth is the real motivation behind all of these groups.

There is absolutely no reason why groups such as Islamic Jihad will do anything to support any type of peaceful movement and the Palestinian cause and in reality it will most likely do everything in her power to prevent.

The future of the Palestinian statehood issue continues to be dark and most likely has no concept of a light at the end of the tunnel.

A youth movement that is truly seeking justice and equality for all of the Palestinians is nowhere to be seen and even if it could be seen it is not armed and is not nearly as determined as the violent actors of Hamas and Islamic Jihad and all the others!

http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2013/02/islamic-jihad-join-plo.html