SO.. JUST HOW IMPORTANT IS A DAM???

So, what does the loss of the Taqba Dam mean to Assad?

To put it simply, it's huge!

It's a given that this Dam was probably highly protected and its loss produced a virtual stockpile of weapons and munitions for the rebels.

Yet, weapons cache was captured is not even 1/10 of the story at the strategic level.

There's been a saying in the Middle East for centuries; "he who controls the water controls the land"!

I can just imagine the conversation inside Iraq when word came at the rebels had captured this strategic location on Euphrates River.

Although this Dam is not critical in the production of electricity, it's the simple flow of water in the psychological damage of its loss that will impact what is left of the Syrian governments confidence, not to mention leadership of Iraq and Iran.

Some are already pondering, how hard with the Syrian government try to regain this facility?

Let me explain to you just how difficult a task this could prove to be.

Once the rebels occupied the control room for the locks in the dam itself the Syrian government was forced to contemplate a virtual man on man conflict in any attempt to regain the dam.

You see, you cannot use artillery, you cannot use helicopters, at least not at her full potential and you cannot use fighter aircraft even with precision munitions without destroying the physical facility you are trying to retake.

The psychological damage of losing such a strategic facility is perhaps the largest prize of  all for the rebels.

The water from Euphrates is every bit as important to the people of Iraq as it is the people of Syria.

Why the rebels chose this target speaks to their ability to comprehend strategic value versus tactical value or targets of simple opportunity.

This was a story that was easily overlooked today!

This is also a story that I can promise you provides us with one of the best indicators yet of Assad's future.

The battle for Damascus continues in the long run that truly is more important than the capture of the largest dam in Syria on Euphrates River, but this event, in my opinion, was overlooked to quickly today.

I can assure you it was not overlooked by Assad or his Bosses in Tehran.

http://www.aljazeera.com/news/middleeast/2013/02/2013211154422865528.html

THE BATTLE FOR DAMASCUS AND IRAN'S PLAN!

Several times over the course of the past year and a half, I have commented on the possibilities of the random planning for continued actions on Syrian soil even after the fall of Assad!

I believe it is now a commonly accepted viewpoint that Iran has determined their ability to operate and support Hezbollah from inside Syria is an achievable an acceptable goal.

The rumors of training camps run by the Iranians have been spoken of for months now.

Logic would have it these militias would provide Iran the opportunity to maintain some acceptable control.

Having said that, Assad must be thinking twice about what the real intentions of these militias might be.

Are they there to prop him up and support him, or are they there simply to run Syria, what is left of it, after the fall the government?

Personally, I believe this theory is spot on.

Indications of  Assad's  demise are about as hard to determine as they could possibly be.

Nevertheless, in the past few days coordinated actions around the city of Damascus appeared to have an ominous tone for the Syrian government.

Close order combat inside the city of Damascus renders weapons such as fighter aircraft and long-range artillery virtually useless.

The Syrian military can ill afford to abandon the city for the simple purpose of leveling it given the fact that the last of their supporters are inside of the same city.

Could Damascus become the modern day Beirut?

Could battle lines be drawn virtually dividing the city as they did in the Lebanese Civil War,

With Iranian militias holding small pockets of territory and a unorganized divided rebel movement that is much better destroying operations than they are developing them or maintaining them is a formulary for sustaining conflict.

It's so it appears the ingredients for a stalemate and a divided and virtually nonexistent nation-state that was once called Syria have all come together.

Another unfortunate risk now returns to the forefront!

Assad's option of using WMDs is most likely predicated on his anticipated loss of Damascus.

For quite some time now I have stated the Iranians truly hold the trigger on Syria's WMDs.

I'm afraid the close enough in the timeline of such an event that my theory may be put to test.

Unfortunately these militias and the Islamic fundamentalist radical groups in Syria mixed with the concerns of unaccounted for weapons of mass destruction also creates a cocktail the Israelis will undoubtedly be unwilling to drink!

By the time the president United States visits Israel, there is a real possibility the topic will not be Palestinian statehood or even the Iranian nuclear weapons program.

There is even the possibility that by the time this meeting takes place in the region will simply be too "hot" for the presence travel.

http://www.jpost.com/MiddleEast/Article.aspx?id=302818

http://www.aljazeera.com/news/middleeast/2013/02/201321019911209655.html

HAMAS AND FATAH.. FAIL AGAIN... BIG SURPRISE!!!

Well, or at least the eighth time that I can remember, the so-called reconciliation of Hamas and Fatah is come to a grinding halt!

Now, quite frankly, is anyone really surprised?

I wouldn't go as far as saying these reconciliation talks are a joke, but I would say they're getting close.

A year ago, the potential glue to make this bond take place was the new government in Egypt.

It's very apparent now the new government in Egypt has far greater issues at hand!

Obviously the "grand plan of the Muslim brotherhood" is in serious trouble, at least in side of the mothership........... Egypt!

As I stated before, some of us realize what the real issue is between Hamas and Fatah; power and prestige.

From the standpoint of Hamas, giving up the lucrative business of the tunnel operations in Gaza is simply a bridge too far, even in the name of "reunification".

So what now?

How long before the next great announcement of a significant meeting between the two parties once again forecasting the great merger?

One thing is for sure, the Muslim brotherhood in Egypt is far too occupied to continue any further proactive planning for the Palestinian movement.

On the surface, a lack of unification could be interpreted is music to the ears of the Israelis and others.

As I stated two nights ago, I'm not sure the consistent failure of Hamas and Fatah is going to lead to "business as usual"!

The radical elements within the Gaza Strip and now even parts of the West Bank could easily see this failure of unification as their Golden opportunity to try and further the Palestinian cause their way!

So before everyone begins to cheer become optimistic over this stalemate between the two Palestinian movements, we need to consider what the alternative might be.

If the egos that run these two groups actually seem to be the stumbling points, and the Palestinian people may need to take action against both leaders.

Perhaps the Palestinian people should call for an election soon were both these parties and their leaders are cast aside.

If that sounds unrealistic, I would caution you not to underestimate the frustration and the determination of many young Palestinians.

What we are witnessing today in Cairo is the youth movement of Egypt, who were overrun by the Muslim brotherhood, beginning to get their feet underneath them and place true demands on their current government.

Don't believe for a minute that this mindset cannot become contagious to those in the Palestinian community who are tired of the interactions of Hamas and Fatah.

http://www.jpost.com/DiplomacyAndPolitics/Article.aspx?id=302695

THE PALESTINIAN CAUSE.. HOW MANY LEVELS ARE THERE?

Last week I failed to comment on the rather obvious move by Khaled Mashaal to try to out maneuver Abbas and Fatah.

When Mashaal stated he may run for President of the PA, I am sure Abbas was not amused.

So, what is the storyline here?

For all the talk of all the hard work taking place to "reconcile" Hamas and Fatah, it's all just hot air!!!!

The Palestinian cause suffers from the same issue it has suffered from for decades.......everyone wants to be the one in charge!!!

Nobody is really in this struggle for the true purpose of justice or homeland rights.

People like Mashaal and Abbas are like no different then all the rest.

Power... prestige and ego... 

In my opinion, the last person who really spoke from the standpoint of placing the Palestinian  people first was Hanan Mikhail Ashrawi.. and we all know what the zealots of Hamas and the more radical groups think of a "female" Spokesperson!!1

So, as the sideshow of " unity" continues in Cairo, a place that is a little preoccupied with their own " unity" issues right now, lets take a quick at what is lurking in the shadows of Gaza and the surrounding area.

The article below is an excellent read on the more radical elements hanging around the fringes of the whole PA movement.

I must admit, as I was reading this today, I couldn't help but be amazed just how many in the West are totally clueless on what is going on in the Middle East.

To think you could walk the streets of Gaza right now and see group after group proclaiming that Hamas is too liberal and too compromising is simply amazing.

Groups like Jaljalat would love nothing more than to toss out Hamas and then attack Fatah for the purpose of turning the Palestinian movement into an armed conflict with no talk whatsoever of compromise.

Yet, here in the West, we see one  beard on TV and we are ready to place everyone into the same bucket!!

Ok, disclaimer here... I don't believe for a single second Hamas is a legitimate organization; although some of us hope someday they might give it a try.... Just ask Jerry Adams and the IRA....

The problem is this; if the more rational groups such as Fatah and members of Hamas can't get to the same sheet of music, internally, then how does anyone rationally believe the whole movement is going to move forward anytime soon??????

I'm afraid the real concern needs to be the radical elements of the movement overtaking the somewhat rational members and plunging the region into a crisis.

Simply put, if Hamas and Fatah can't figure out how to show a unified front to the rest of the world, then those groups snipping at their feet are going to pull them down and the entire movement will be lost, perhaps for ever.

Keeping your "enemy" confused and off balance is a sound tactical practice, but that concept doesn't last forever and often it runs the risk of leading to a complete meltdown that becomes uncontrollable.

Abbas and Mashaal better get their collective acts together soon or the young Wolves at their doorstep are going to blow their house down!!!!

http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2013/02/palestine-salafist-jihadists-bet.html

http://www.jpost.com/MiddleEast/Article.aspx?id=302514

BULGARIA AND HEZBOLLAH... SO WHAT IS THE CONNECTION?

So what does it mean that Bulgaria is blamed members of Hezbollah for the bus bombing in Burgas?

It's not the first time Hezbollah, in their opinion, is taken the blame for tears attack somewhere else in the world.

If you have followed the story, the new already realize the significance of Bulgaria's announcement and the impact it could have her Hezbollah financial support operations throughout Europe.

If you follow the story as of today, you will also notice that the EU, as expected, is still "reluctant" actually point the finger and Hezbollah!

If you are truly curious about this entire event, and you have to ask yourself the question; why is the EU so reluctant to properly identify Hezbollah as a terrorist organization?

Now, some will say it's a simple fear factor.

A byproduct of liberal, passive governments is a constant the version the confrontation.

Is not too difficult to visualize a conversation between EU leaders talking of the repercussions by Hezbollah in Europe if the EU or to identify Hezbollah honestly.

Admittedly, I'm one of the first to admit that not all government leaders in the EU are so weak kneed is to take the stance.

Those in Europe who comprehend the dangers of such a radical organization's has blocked know full well that some point in time they must properly identify these terrorist what they are.

Unfortunately, in the world of international politics, the reoccurring factor of, "what's in it for me", comes into play.

Everyone in the world of international politics is always looking out for their self-interest; rightfully so!

The bottom line is this, whatever the reasons may be the EU is now under more pressure than ever before to choose sides on the issue at hand. Hezbollah............

I will give Hezbollah credit for one thing.

I saw no indications today of threats towards the EU.

No emotionally charged statements about the price that unit may pay or betraying Hezbollah or their so-called cause.

At least for today, they stayed on theme; the evil Israelis!

Where the Israelis encouraged by the announcement from the Bulgarian government?

Probably so, but the real issue is the final verdict from the EU.

With official condemnation from the EU, Hezbollah funding streams from Europe could become nearly nonexistent, at least from a legal standpoint.

"Do the right thing"!!!!

That is the message and Israel sends to the EU.

You see, Europe has a history, from the Jewish perspective, of failing to take action against organizations that are based upon hate and bigotry.

Let's watch to see what the EU says and then remember............. actions speak louder than words!

http://www.jpost.com/MiddleEast/Article.aspx?id=302357

TURKEY AND SAUDI.... CRACKS IN THE SOCIAL ARMOR?

Two very interesting articles that both have a potential fascinating common theme.

The story of Saudi youth questioning traditional approaches to Islam touches on a topic that has the royal family sleepless since the beginning of the Arab spring.

The article on the Shiites of Turkey in the injustices they perceive are taking place; well..... It too has Turkish leadership worried.

So what is the common link between these two stories?

Both of these critical governments in the region are showing signs of social stress that they are both long feared.

In the case of the Saudis, is a youth movement surrounded and encased with education and social media is simply questioning the current form of government, is all youthful segments of society, a successful society, are known to do.

It is this "questioning of authority" that the Saudi Royal family truly fears organizations such as the Muslim brotherhood will exploit.

Since the beginning of the Arab spring, the concerns of the Western world have truly been for staining governments of the GCC nations, with Saudi Arabia being the center of that discussion.

As is been the case throughout the Arab spring, suppression will not be the answer and yet suppression will be the reaction of the Saudi government.

As for the Shiites of Turkey, their question of "injustices" is nothing new.

Although their numbers make them truly a minority in their country, their ability to catch the attention of a Sunni dominated government is undeniable.

When we look at the questions the Shia of Turkey are asking, it is difficult to formulate an answer that they would probably understand or be willing to accept.

I can't help but notice, it is far easier, currently, to read of the Turkish governments concerns and actions towards the Kurdish issue then to find discussions of Sunni Shia tensions.

I'm not sure there is anywhere in the entire region where insecurity, social injustices and economic imbalances does not occupy majority of the day-to-day conversations.

But, seeing small fissures in countries such as Saudi Arabia and Turkey are far different and much more ominous for everyone in the current events in Mali  Libya or Tunisia and even Syria.

Yet, is truly music to the ears of the Iranians\the Persians\when they hear stories of social, internal, tensions inside these two nations.

Having said that, it is far too easy and Iran to this list!

So, is the winter of 2013 moves towards the spring of 2013 the question becomes what is the next phase of the "Arab Spring" / Tunisian Virus.... Yes... I still refer to it as such :-)

http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2013/02/saudi-youth-question-mohammed-al-ari-tom-cruise-of-wahhabism.html

http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2013/02/ali-ozgunduz-shia-sectarian-fears-caferi-turkey.html

IRAN'S POWER STRUGGLE.. IS ANYONE PAYING ATTENTION?

Well, I'm not sure anyone's paying attention but it's very apparent the power struggle inside Iran's leadership continues to grow!

Who the next president will be after this June's elections is anyone's guess, but Ahmadinejad is doing his level best to make sure it is not one of his known adversaries.

As I've said before, the internal power struggles of the Iranian government is far more disruptive than most in the Western world realize.

I'm not sure anyone in the West even has a working understanding of what a "moderate" Iranian leader may stand for, but everyone seems to be hoping against hope one will  come to the forefront.

What is clear is the economic crisis is the weapon of choice for all sides involved.

Religion, Zionist and the crisis in Syria or a pending "Arab spring" are not the flavors of the day.

The price of bread loss of subsidies and the devaluation of currency are the cornerstones of this struggle for power.

The religious leaders of Iran seem content to allow the somewhat sectarian politicians squabble and better yet take the blame for the economic miseries of Iran; for you see, the real power in Iran will never leave the mullahs and the ayatollahs are whatever title they care to give themselves!

Although this struggle does not appear to gain much traction in the Western press, you can be assured in Jerusalem is a daily conversation.

The ability to exploit weaknesses of your enemy is a doctrinal concept that will not be overlooked by the Israelis or the nationstates of the GCC!

The actions of Ahmadinejad may appear to be amateurish, but if there's one thing he knows how to do, it's to play the part of the sensational leader.

The elections grow near and the drama will only increase.

The question becomes, with the issue of Syria and Israel overtakes the economic crisis in Iran before the elections are held?

A looming economic future is at best bleak spells disaster for the Iranian leadership and they know it.

To what ends with the Iranian government go to take its publics eye off of their economic misery?

http://www.aljazeera.com/news/middleeast/2013/02/20132481311128156.html