A THIRD INTIFADA???? WHAT WOULD IT MEAN THIS TIME AROUND?

It's undeniable that the rumor mill of a possible third Intifada is becoming more and  more prevalent throughout the region.

If we put aside trying to figure out just how possible this could be an concentrate on it was to happen what would it mean, there are some interesting changes since the second event almost 12 years ago.

Here are a few interesting issues that need to be considered as anyone anticipates a future event.

The physical barriers that have been placed by the Israeli government will make the infiltration of suicide bombers much more difficult to accomplish; but creativeness is a trait of the Palestinians!

Creating chaos outside of these barriers may not have the same impact as they would inside the major towns and cities but given the 24 seven 365 day year news coverage and the overwhelming increase of social media since the last Intifada the impact might be psychologically just as severe as in the past.

On the topic of the relationship, or the lack thereof, between Hamas and Fatah it will be interesting to see who would win the public relations contest between the two with the Palestinian people.

The idea that Hamas and Fatah would jointly execute a third Intifada is simply not realistic, at least not at this time!

Interesting enough, I would anticipate both groups would struggle with maintaining control of a modern day/social media driven Intifada.

The theory that such an event could spin out of control there by  limiting the influence of both Hamas and Fatah is more than realistic.

Egypt would be another interesting part of a third Intifada this time around!

How would the Muslim brotherhood / Mr Morsi leverage such an event?

With the Egyptian government even support such an uprising in the near future?

Remembering that the Muslim brotherhood seems to have a "master plan" for their operations in the region would they condone a Palestinian driven uprising just now?

How about the Iranians?

What would be their role/influence/reaction to a third Intifada?

Like the Egyptians, is this something they would support right now or would it do them more harm than good and quite honestly could they impact events is this taking place one way or the other?

And what about Syria?

Would Assad see such event as "Manta from Heaven"?

The distraction value would be priceless from Assad's viewpoint.

His problem is, he's lost virtually all influence with any Palestinian group and although he may profit by such an event the danger would be any repercussions would be uncontrollable by the Syrian government.

Simply put, Syria would be along for the ride one way or the other.

Next, Lebanon?

 We cannot mention the repercussions for Lebanon, without factoring in ever imposing Hezbollah!

 The fallout of a third Intifada for Lebanon would be extremely dangerous at a minimum.

I'm quite confident that the weight of the Syrian crisis stacked with the weight of the third Intifada in the region would be far more than the fragile Lebanese government could withstand.

Now, for the most interesting topic   from my viewpoint.

What would be the role of the "Dayton Battalions"?

An interesting concept that I've never been confident the correct move.

In my opinion, these units were developed with the support of the US and others for the sole purpose of countering Hamas and the attempted takeover of the West Bank.

Yes, it is true these units on a day-to-day basis work well with Israeli forces, as well as can be expected.

But, in open conflict, predominantly in the West Bank, where would the loyalties of these young Palestinian paramilitary police come down?

How embarrassing would it be to see the IDF having to engage and destroy units that were vetted by the Israelis and trained by the US in Jordan?

Well, it's easy to figure out they third Intifada will most likely be nothing like the first or the second.

Times of changed, alliances have changed, capabilities had changed and this is all placed into an environment that is already on a regional crisis stage.

Predicting actions and impacts of the third Intifada based upon the history of the previous two would be a drastic mistake for all parties.

So, the rumors of a possible third event seem to percolate with each passing day, but who would support it, how would it be supported, how would it execute and most importantly how would it spread; these are the real issues!

Never fight the next battle based upon the last battle!

I can think of no better advice for all parties involved.

http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2013/01/security-sources-a-third-intifad.html

TRUE COLORS.. SOMEBODY FOUND MORSI'S!!!!!

Ok, everyone is shocked...stunned...disappointed... and so on and so on.

Well... allow me and many others to simply say, " I TOLD YOU SO"!!!

Sometimes, the old expression of "better the devil you know than the devil you don't know" does not apply!

In my book, Morsi never fooled me many others for a single moment.

Worries me more than the comments found on record by this hatemonger is the ridiculous notion that some people would actually be surprised comments like these have been found.

Also, a special attention to the fact that when the Muslim brotherhood was questioned about these comments they had no reply!

Sometimes, as is often the case in the Middle East, the no reply answer is the answer.

So the question now becomes, what to do about it?

Is there a price for Egypt for discovering such an attitude by its leader?

Actions and the repercussions of those actions; that is what leadership must consider on both sides of this argument.

Morsi's statement and feelings were well known inside of Israel, but those in Israel that believe that all roads lead to some mystical midway point of agreement should have perceived this story is a wake-up call.

You see, many of us not just the Israelis understand what we are up against with this passive, smiling movement called the Muslim brotherhood.

Now I know, the argument can be made perhaps he made these statements to win over heated supporters inside the brotherhood.

I am one of many simply would not buy this argument.

If we look at when statements were made, it's obvious that a second or third string Muslim brotherhood player such as Morsi was not contemplating a run for the throne in Egypt.

Quite frankly, what we we now have witnessed is a glimpse into the past and the present unfortunate the future of where Mr. Morsi's feelings truly rest.

I wouldn't want to be the one that has to go to Congress and convince the more conservative members that the military flow of support Egypt needs to continue.

It appears Mr. Morsi is learning a lesson that many in his generation continue to struggle with.

In the 21st century when you strive to be in the public limelight, every comment, every press release and truly every conversation in the open public must be carefully thought out for you never know who is listening and nowadays more importantly videoing!

If the silence from Mr.Morsi continues and someone has integrity to continue to ask the question as to why he may be statements, then there will have to be repercussions at some level at some point in time.

Just imagine if this would've been a US politician caught on tape saying such absolutely absurd comments prior to election campaign.

This event get swept under the carpet, the level of disappointment will be immeasurable; and that doesn't even consider the Israeli side of the issue.

Red-handed................... that is how Mr. Morsi has been caught; but then again those that know him and his movement are hardly surprised!

http://www.dailystar.com.lb/News/Middle-East/2013/Jan-15/202389-white-house-condemns-comments-by-egypts-morsi.ashx#axzz2I3r3OC00

THE HYBRID THAT MAY JUST CATCH ON!!!

First off, let me just say that this is a very well-written article by Hussein Jemmo.

Now, let's get down to what could prove to be a critical discussion on the future of the Middle East.

I'll start by saying Jabhat al-Nusra could very well be the result of years of experimentation by Islamic fundamentalist groups that has resulted in a concept an organization unlike any of its predecessors.

The author of this article has does an outstanding job of listing  the differences that Nusra has accomplished in its operations inside of Syria.

If you were to remove the religious aspects of these accomplishments, you might begin to see what I consider to be some of the 21st century tenants of warfare.

I'm not going to get tied down in discussions of fourth-generation and fifth generation and so on and so on; that's truly irrelevant at this point.

What is clear with the actions of the Nusra groups in Syria is their desire and their focus.

In an attempt to capture some of the more important aspects of what the author of this article states are taking place inside of this organization, I would like to speak to a few specific facts.

First off, it appears Nusra is already plotting and planning for dealing with the FSA and the so-called government in exile after the fall of Assad.

The simple fact that this group realizes that their in-state goal must have a plan for dealing with the FSA and all the others who will  come rushing to Damascus proclaiming they are the new government is brilliant.

The fact that Nusra already realizes this obstacle is in itself a change from some of the old habits of Islamic fundamentalist organizations.

The next item I found more than interesting is how Nusra controlled and continues to control the "targets" they choose to engage.

Determining conflicts based upon lines of support and friendly forces to your left and right is a concept not often followed by most amateurish resistance groups.

The fact that this organization picks and chooses after careful planning when to attack, where to attack and why to attack is an indication of just how more advanced they truly are in the other groups in the Syrian resistance.

I also found it noteworthy how this organization goes to great strides to keep its operational missions as simple as possible.

Understanding the confusion and distraction that results from being tied down in  support matters after a conflict, such as other Islamic fundamentalist groups tend to do, is detrimental to the overall mission and

 Avoiding these mistakes is key to this organizations overall success.

Simply put, Jabhat al-Nusra has developed a very focused and deliberate process for engagement inside of Syria.

This hybrid organization also seems to have captured the most critical issue to their survival and future; winning the respect of the people they claim to be defending.

Calling this organization the "Islamic Army" is an indication of just how far they have come in the critical process of "hearts and minds"!

When the FSA is referred to as "thieves" their future in a leadership role inside of Syria is more than doubtful!

Now, after heaping praise upon this author in this article, I do cast doubt on the amount of credit given toal-Qaeda for providing guidance.

We're really looking at here is an Islamic fundamentalists/military operation that is based upon some very proven concepts of engagement in both kinetic warfare, guerrilla warfare and psychological warfare.

The balance has been achieved here, at least for now, is noteworthy in quite frankly disturbing to those who oppose the Islamic fundamentalist movement.

One group we can place into the "proposed" column interestingly enough is the Syrian Muslim brotherhood.

The continued success of Jabhat al-Nusra is bad news for what the Islamic fundamentalist consider "middle of the road" members such as the Muslim brotherhood.

In the never-ending world of the betrayal Nusra leaders will have to be careful in the future topic of the Syrian Muslim brotherhood.

But, if these leaders have had the vision to deal with the FSA in the near future, then they are probably well underway formatting a plan to deal with the Syrian Muslim brotherhood.

Jabhat al-Nusra is exactly what this author claims it could be; a hybrid\Phoenix\that could prove far more effective in the region than many are giving it credit for.

It took years of conflict with the Soviet Union for the Taliban to shape itself into a refined operation.

Out of the ashes of Syria comes the Phoenix???

 I bet the GCC and the MB are praying it's just a myth!!! 

It could very well be we are witnessing the "Taliban" of Syria growing into a major player right before our very eyes.

We shall see!

http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/security/2013/01/jabhat-al-nusras-goals-extend-beyond-syria.html

SO WHY THIS REPORT NOW?

Now admittedly, the issue of the Iranian collection operations in the Golan Heights was not the primary purpose of this congressional report referred to in the link below.

So the question becomes, why did the Jerusalem Post pick this part of the report to write a story on?

It is not news that the Iranians have been conducting collection operations of all kinds in Syria for years.

Now, the fact that Netanyahu visited the Golan Heights, obviously as part of his election campaign, is most likely the reason the Jerusalem Post chose to do what appears to be a follow-up story from yesterday.

Both stories made a point to mention the IDF officer who question when the fly over Syria would change.

So to me, the message here seems to be one of, once again, the influence and control the Iranians have over operations in Syria.

You Syrian actions in and around the Golan Heights worried Israelis?

Obviously, the answer is yes!

Ensuring that the public is aware of Iranian collection operations in that same area is a brilliant way to bolster the public's opinion and awareness of how involved the Iranians truly are in the Syrian conflict.

The million-dollar question becomes what if anything will be done about this collection operation?

You see, if you spark the public's interest enough the public typically begins to ask questions and sometimes even hard questions.

So, if the public asked the question, "okay what are we going to do about it"?

Well! That's a good question!

As I said the beginning of this post, there's nothing new about a rating collection operations in Syria to include the Golan Heights, but there is something new about official congressional report making mention of such operations.

Overall, both stories over the past two days by the Jerusalem Post helping a picture of an Israeli government, even during time of elections, becoming more and more concerned about Syrian operations and more importantly Iranian involvement in Syrian operations on the Israeli border!

The elections in Israel are only a few days away and we can expect several more hardline, hawkish statements and news articles before it's all said and done.

The truth of the matter is, as soon as these elections are over, the intent of the Israeli government most likely become very clear and that is a message the Iranians are probably more worried about than anyone can imagine.

 http://www.jpost.com/IranianThreat/News/Article.aspx?id=299499

A SIMPLE REMINDER... ISRAEL SEES EVENTS IN SYRIA DIFFERENTLY

It may seem like a simple rehashing of old news, but Israel sees the events in Syria through much different eyes than most!

The fall of the Assad regime to a movement that is obviously spearheaded by Islamic fundamentalist bent on the destruction of Israel is not a picture Israel wishes to view.

Now, some eternal optimist will probably continue to speak of the option of groups such as the Syrian Muslim brotherhood and some perceived notion of a middle-of-the-road post Assad government in Syria.

If you pay attention, you will notice Israelis do not share this same optimism.

The Israelis continue to put more effort in what the outcome might be in Syria than trying to rationalize how to minimize violence.

From an Israeli standpoint how could they possibly take any other position?

The Redeployment and further deployment of Israeli assets on the Syrian border creates more than just financial drain.

You see, the day most people celebrate downfall of Assad, will be the same day the Israelis will have to be prepared for much more hostile government in Syria.

The future does not hold a post Assad, more rational government in Syria and this is especially true for Israel.

Those lingering thoughts in the minds of the world leaders, who have contemplated and worried over a post Assad Syria, are more on the order of nightmares for Israeli leadership.

And with these worries, comes the added burden of finding leaders who either have a plan to deal with a Islamic fundamentalist driven government in  Syria or more realistically have the will to do so.

It's simple to say that complex and dangerous to realize the reality that as the resistance in Syria continues to win, the future for the region is actually becoming more dangerous than before serious Civil War.

Many have spoken of the consequences of a Syrian civil war, but the time for speaking of such concerns is now past.

What needs to take place now is deliberate, decisive coordination that leads to some level of acceptable governance in Syria....... post Assad.

Simply put, it is time to stop talking about the dangers of repercussions of the Syrian civil war.

Time is running out for setting the guidelines and limits of whatever government takes control in Syria and if you don't believe me and simply continue to watch the actions and statements of Netanyahu.

Russians and the Iranians may be willing to live with a prolonged Syria  chaos for the simple fact that keeping Hezbollah operational can still be achieved in a Syria that resembles, "Mad Max"!

Once again, one crisis continues to drive us towards another.

Un-securable Sinai place next to an un-securable Israeli border with Syria is a situation the Israelis will not be able to live with.

The head of the snake is Iran and Israel may see this post Assad Syria is only being dealt with by dealing with the snake.

As you continue to hear people calling for the downfall of Assad and insisting that some type of workable government is standing in the shadows of Turkey, be prepared for such a rosy picture never taking place.

http://www.jpost.com/DiplomacyAndPolitics/Article.aspx?id=299463

THE FALL OF TAFTANAZ... MORE IMPORTANT THAN YOU THINK!!

Although this story did seem to gather a lot of attention today, the importance of the loss of this airfield to Assad needs to be further examined.

True, it is more than just a moral victory for the rebels/freedom fighters/, but the psychological impact of this event on the Syrian government cannot be overlooked.

Taftanaz was a location a location the Syrian government did not want to lose.

Let's look at a few of the key reasons why.

For over a year now Syrian governments plan has been to limit the actual, "force on force", contact between Syrian ground forces and the opposition.

As I've said before, the logic behind this concept was and is based upon the fear of defections.

Syrian government a conscious decision to engage the enemy from a distance is often as possible and airfields such as Taftanaz made that concept possible.

Early on in the conflict, it became very clear to the opposition the strategic and psychological importance of the Syrian government Air Force bases.

Denying the Syrian government's ability to conduct air operations in the northern regions of Syria has been the goal; it appears now that goal is much closer.

Once the rebels/opposition/begin to realize they would not receive anti-air weapons and sufficient numbers to deny Syrian government air operations, it became clear the airfields had to become the primary targets.

It is for this reason the Syrian government has tried desperately to hold on to this particular location.

So what did the opposition gain tactically by overtaking this airbase?

In the process of evacuating for operating location, the items that are determined  that cannot be left behind are prioritized for removal.

Also becomes a category of items that falls into the, "too hard to move", column.

Bulk munitions, bulk fuel in simple supplies typically are left behind.

These are the rewards the resistance fighters gained by winning this airfield, tactically.

What I find interesting is the fact that the Syrian government left so many items for the resistance fighters to take.

It's not that difficult to blowup munitions storage site.

It's not that difficult to destroy bulk supplies in place.

So why didn't this happen?

The answer lies in the fact that the Syrian government forces had no plan and left too fast!

Those that could've have made decisions were probably the first to leave, leaving behind a disorganized panic filled shell of a force.

My point is this.

It's one thing to say this installation finally fell into the opposition's hands.

The true story here is what didn't happen and why.

My training in my experience tells me that this installation was evacuated by a defeated force not just tactically and physically but mentally.

There should be no pictures of resistance fighters climbing on Syrian government helicopters.

As I stated earlier, key assets should have never been left in place and if they were left in place they should have been destroyed.

These are truly the indicators of the defeated force!

 Now, let's go back to the issue of the strategic loss of this installation.

The age-old saying applies here; "bad news travels 10 times faster than good news"!

Continued news of defeat placed upon a force that has been conflict for nearly 2 years is more than devastating to morale.

Having to fly further distances does nothing but add additional strain on poorly maintained aircraft and high maintenance weapons.

Simply put, the victory belongs to the rebels and the anguish inside the Syrian government continues to grow.

I would not anticipate Syrian government attempting to retake this installation anytime in the near future if at all.

Walking the grounds of this airbase is probably still incredibly dangerous for at least another day or two.

After that, Syrian government simply cannot afford to spend the dwindling resources on revenge missions towards an installation that is already lost.

Soon and sooner than many think the battle lines will be drawn around Damascus and the question will become to the Iranians defend or simply decide to operate to the level they can achieve in a post Assad Syria?

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-20984142

IRAN.. LOOKING FOR MORE THAN JUST "FRIENDS"!!!!

So, Iran is looking for, "more friends", in the Middle East?

I must admit, watching Iranian and Egyptian government officials smile and shake hands as the cameras click is more than entertaining!

My bet is, this is yet another attempt by the Iranian government to convince its populace that Iranian leadership is reaching out in the region.

The concept of a Persian Shia actually trying to convince Arab Sunnis that they have more in common than others in the region is comical.

The concept of these two shaking hands and posing for the camera is similar to two Mafia chieftains kissing each other's cheek and declaring a truce.

Are the Iranians buying time or are they attempting to pacify what they consider a growing discontented public?

The ridiculous concept of the Sunni Muslim brotherhood/Arab Egyptians forming any type of working relationship with Shia/Persian Iranians can only hold an ounce of credibility if this relationship is based upon both of them plotting to outmaneuver each other.

There is no pact that binds between thieves and there is absolutely no pledge that will hold between the Sunni Muslim brotherhood and the Shia Persians of Iran.

As I have said time and time again, "the enemy of my enemy is my friend", is always a short-lived event in the Middle East.

So, both stories this week, one of Palestinian unification between Hamas and Fatah and the so-called meeting between the Iranians and the Egyptians only places false hope on those silly enough to believe that either action might come true.

Watching the Iranians pull such a stunt is not near as surprising to me as listening to those actually believe these actions may have some baseline to them.

Both these nations have very different visions of how the region should look and more importantly who should rule in a few photo opportunities and hollow words will amount to nothing but wishful thinking by the pacifist watching the region.

http://www.dailystar.com.lb/News/Middle-East/2013/Jan-10/201728-syria-overshadows-iran-charm-offensive-in-egypt.ashx#axzz2Hcv6b2A4