MORSI' CRISIS HAS BECOME A HAMAS CRISIS.

Two interesting articles that do not directly address my discussion here, but they do indicate the issues that lead up to my theory.

Here is the question!

Has Hamas tied it's future to a sinking ship in Morsi..... again?????

I say again because of the history of Hamas' linkage to Assad in Syria and we all see how that relationship turned out.

Hamas has turned their backs on Iran and Syria, as if there ever really was a relationship there between Sunni Hamas and Shia Iran / Syria.

The old "Big Brother" the Muslim Brotherhood became the new Big Brother after the rise of Morsi in Egypt.

Now, as if the new found worry of  the Morsi crisis is not enough for Hamas, they must now look at a promised "unification" with Fatah, something they still loath the idea of having to do, based upon the guidance from the MB and Morsi.

The safe bet is the so called "unification" will die a quick death if Morsi is tossed from power in Egypt; something that is totally up to the Egyptian Military.

Abbas has the upper hand after his UN move and a Hamas that suddenly decides to pull away, again, from Fatah and the PA will find itself on the short side of the Palestinian people.

Yes the so called "victory" of the conflict with Israel three weeks ago has provided them with some standing, but that was quickly countered by Abbas UN maneuver.

So, what is Hamas to do?

What is the future of the "unification" if Morsi falls from grace, a distinct possibility.

Assad may be gone before Morsi, and that will bring Iran's hand reaching back out to Hamas faster than it already is.

If there is anyone that would love to see Hamas fall out of the Sunni orbit of the MB, it's Iran.

I know... I know... everyone talks about Iran's " reaching out" to Egypt and Morsi, but that's the equivalent of a female Black widow inviting a male onto her web!!!

http://blogs.jpost.com/content/hamas-rejects-validity-un-resolution-palestinian-state-2

http://www.aljazeera.com/news/middleeast/2012/12/20121210235329634676.html

AN UPDATE ON DAMASCUS INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT.

A few days ago, I explained the strategic and psychological significance of Damascus IAP.

The issue as to why that location is so critical to Assad and Iran needs no further explanation, but the tactical discussion will show why holding that location is nearly impossible for Assad in the long run.

Airports need several things in order to remain "open".

The free movement of resupply fuel is one of the first real critical events Assad's regime must insure.

Airplanes that are flying tactical resupply missions can land with sufficient fuel on board to turn and go, but day to day commercial airline industries do not and will not work under such "risk".

This fuel issue has a second real impact on the success of the airfield.

Storage!

Above ground storage tanks and fuel lines that are "exposed" make nearly irresistible targets to the rebels.

This is one of the points that I find interesting about the assault on Damascus IAP.

Why don't we see large pillars of smoke and flames billowing up from the Fuel Farm?

Have the rebels not thought of attacking this vital link to Assad's primary supply point?

Have the rebels formed a deliberate plan to avoid collateral damage to this facility?

Has "someone" asked them to approach the destruction of the Airport with "post Civil War requirements" in mind?

My gut tells me no.

I'm not convinced someone drafted, agreed to "master plan" for Damascus IAP, at least not from a post civil war / World view.

Now, If I were Assad's military leaders, I would have some of my best units protecting this airport for all the reasons I talked about a few days ago.

So, it could be it's much more difficult to reach, even with indirect fire, the fuel farm.

If I wanted to prevent the arrival of support flights to Assad, I would not concentrate my limited assault assets on the fuel farm.

What is the one thing every airport must have to remain open?

Yep... Runways!

If I wanted to stop Assad's resupply support, I would go after the runways first.

Again, the question becomes why has this not happened?

First off; the size of shell it takes to creator a several foot thick runway is hard to hide especially when your enemy still owns the sky above you.

Runways are vital, but they are also very difficult to completely    destroy.

The ability to fill a 20 ft whole and pour fresh asphalt is much easier than sneaking close enough to shell the location.

Can the rebels take a section of the airport long enough to destroy the runways beyond the point of a quick repair job?

Again, remember the level of troops Assad probably has assigned to this site!

 Ok, if you can't take out the runways, what is the next logical option?

Answer; make it very difficult to safely approach the airport by air.

It's what is commonly referred to as the " Manpad footprint".

Large transport aircraft or commercial airlines on final approach are sitting ducks for manpad shots.

The area the aircraft must fly over on it's final leg to the runway is the most dangerous and in this case most assuredly  the most guarded.

Manpad denial requires owning the rooftops of any building within shoulder fired range of the airport.

A task that is extremely difficult even with large number of troops available and even when the airport is somewhat remote like Damascus IAP.

Again, why have we not seen the "shot" taken by the rebels?

Take your choice.... .someone has said, "don't go there"....... It's simply too difficult ... or the proverbial...  " we just don't want to......yet"!!!!

Ok, what does all of this conversation lead to?

Simple; it 'leads to emphasizing just how critical Damascus IAP is to everyone involved.

Assad cannot survive without this facility..

On the other hand, the rebels can win this civil war without destroying or even overrunning Damascus IAP.

That is the difference.

You see the rebels know all too well just how hard Assad will fight to keep this facility in his grip.

They know that he limit actions in other areas for the sake of saving the airport.

A few units assigned to "harass" the airport after a well timed public notice about the airport being a "legitimate target" could be the game being played.

Would the rebels love to take Damascus IAP?

Yes.

Would they be willing to drive Assad into taking  actions the world would  not sit back and watch unfold?

Yes!

Damascus IAP means virtually everything to Assad.

To the rebels, it could easily be target that drives Assad to destruction at the hands of the rest of the world.

One last catch to this topic and it's a big one.

The second Assad's military commanders believe they are going to lose this airport, the level of panic inside what is left of his military will hit a new high!!!

Watch Damascus IAP and you will see the future of Assad.

REBELS "DID IT".. IS THAT THE GAME ASSAD WANTS TO PLAY?

Well, known of the folks who I know watching Syria are surprised by this completely predictable statement by Assad's regime.

The rebels may use chemical weapons????

How?

Why?

For those of you that haven't seen through this ploy, and that is probably not very many, let me paint a picture of what Assad is attempting to do.

His plan goes something like this.

1.  Claim the rebels have taken a site that might have chemical capabilities.

2.  Claim the casualties from an event on the rebels and hope the world is too ignorant to figure out the truth!

Now, here is the problem with a plan that most of us have seen coming for months.

If you use true chemical weapons, they do not leave the forensic  footprint of lest say a Chlorine Gas release.

It would be impossible to explain away a body of victims the UN would insist on examining, not to mention the hours of You Tube video that would be shot by anyone near the area.

The simple point is this; Assad cannot prepare the world to believe the rebels are responsible for something everyone knows he did.

Here is the part that worries me.

I have told everyone for some time now if Assad's regime begins to leak the story the rebels may  conduct a WMD event, that could be true sign he is about to utilize them himself.

Preparation of the perception battlefield would be his goal.

This "comment" by his government is a worrisome sign.

On another note, after I finish additional readings today, I am going to post on the significance of the ongoing battle for Damascus International Airport and what it means to the fate of Assad and Iran.

http://www.france24.com/en/20121208-syria-warns-rebels-may-use-chemical-weapons

SO WHAT IS ASSAD REALLY UP TO AND WHO TO BLAME??

Two days ago my conversation revolved around the possibility of Assad actually releasing WMDs inside Syria.

 After listening to all the buzz over this crisis, I think it is worthy of validating why Assad may be about to take such a hazardous action.

I've heard some really... really... "out of the box" theories in the past two days, but I've heard no one comment on the Iranian link to Assad's actions.

Everyone knows Iran is propping up Assad and his forces and most of us assume Iran is the very first government Assad would inform of his possible intentions; it might be the only government he intends to consult.

If you start the analysis from the stance that Iran would give it's backing before such an event could take place, then all the other, "why is he doing this.... is he really going to do this... doesn't he understand what it will mean to him".. and so on and so on... is truly irrelevant.

Would he strike out on his own without Iranian support?

The bigger question is, could he?

Does anyone who knows what is going on in Syria right now truly believe Iran is not watching over if not outright controlling WMD operations in Syria?

Look... you can toss out the theory of, "he's bluffing to gain negotiation points for his departure.

Assad has no place to go, not after what his government and his henchmen have done to the innocent people of Syria.

Not even other wacky dictators such as Chavez  will touch Assad.. you watch!!!

So, back to why....

Does Assad believe he has nothing to lose at this point?

The SAMS in the hands of the rebels... the inability to control Damascus?

If the Iranians didn't want him to bring the reaction that is currently taking place in the rest of the world, then he would have never been allowed to mix the chemicals.

Side note:  Is it significant that the talk is of Sarin Gas, and not VX?

VX.. a much more persistent agent that is fare more deadly than Sarin.. why not it?

Because he couldn't get permission that's why!!!!

Ok, I think you are catching on to my overall point here.

If we want to understand, predict what Assad is going to do, we need to look to Tehran!

If Iran doesn't want a WMD event to take place in Syria, it will simply not allow one to take place.

If they think Assad has lost his mind, then his troops would not be allowed to come close to mixing the agents.

If they think Asssad has gone, "rouge" on them, then he is going to wake up DEAD.. soon!!!

Simply put; if a WMD event takes place in Syria... look to Tehran for the blame and look to Tehran right now to make sure one doesn't happen.

I don't know why this is not the conversation with the so called experts, but I have to believe the Department of State and other nations know exactly who to talk to right now.

I bet the Israeli leadership knows who to place the blame on, and lets see who says it first!!

THE TRUE COLORS OF THE "BROTHERHOOD" COME OUT!

                         

As I watched and read about events taking place in Egypt today, I couldn't help but wonder why it was many of the people in Egypt understand what it is the Muslim Brotherhood is and has been up to all this time, yet the "West" seems to be holding on to the fallacy of "hope"... Hope that the MB is an organization the world can "deal with".

I've said it time and time again, the MB is the slow version of cancer, but the end results are the same.... the death of any form of government that is not Islamic.

But as of today, my how the times change!!!!

I listen to a MB spokesperson today rant to the point of foaming at the mouth about how poor Mr Mursi was only doing the "will of the people"...... Funny.. that seems to be the same line every dictator has used for centuries!!!

It was obvious Mursi was racing against time and the Egyptian Courts tossing out the one-sided so called Constitutional Draft... you know.. .the one all the secularist walked out on months ago.... Democracy... MB style!!!

As I listen to the MB supporters spout their moronic  themes and messages on why Mursi "had" to do what he did, it seemed laughable to me what they were trying to sell to the rest of the world.

As the day wore on, the MB tried desperately to sell the idea of the protesters being part of the old Mubarak regime.

Now, I have a question for the MB.

How can it be the same youthful, secularist in the streets today... protesting the Pharaoh that took to the square in 2011?

 This is the issue the MB will struggle with.

How do the "frame" the perception of who these protestors are?

Linking them to "old" Mubarak supporters is not going to work.

Labeling them as "non believers" will only expose the true Islamic nature of the MB.

I've said it before and it still holds true....... it's much easier to protest... complain and make demands than it is to lead.

That problem becomes particularly difficult when your intention is not to be "inclusive", not to be truly democratic,  but to simply gain power and rule according to what your group believes in.

Now, the fact the MB is facing the biggest crisis in their history may sound encouraging to those of us who were never on the MB bandwagon to begin with, but the fact of the matter is an Egypt sliding back into the abyss spells even more danger for the region.

I would be willing to bet, the Islamic Jihad groups in the Sinai are moving without a care in the world right about now.... well.. with the exception of the IDF!!!!

Where this is all heading is hard to judge at the moment, but Mursi can afford few if any additional mistakes at the moment.

If he was smart, and he is, he would find a way to announce a delay in the Dec Constitutional referendum and do so quickly.

Every event of this scale has a point of no return and Mursi has little time to find an answer before that point returns to Egypt.

http://www.aljazeera.com/news/middleeast/2012/12/201212584345620395.html

SO... IS IT TRUE??? I SAY YES!!!  SYRIA IS A LIBYA ON STEROIDS!

It's not a new argument the Syrian Opposition would want sound the alarm on Islamic radicals growing in power as the Civil War goes on in Syria.

Some argue this is just the Opposition trying to gain legitimacy with the rest of the world as they prove they are the only ones the world should "deal" with.

Here is the problem with that worn out concept.

It's true!

It's true they now recognized opposition  is the only group even close to working with in Syria and that is exactly what has happened in the past two weeks.

It's also true the Islamic groups are growing by the day not only in capabilities, but in acceptance by the general population and that perhaps the most dangerous issue of all.

Jabhat al-Nusra has no intention of solving the Syrian crisis in a manner that is conducive to the West or the UN.

If you think the Islamic radicals filled their weapons stashes after the fall of Libya, so much so they have moved out in three different directions now in Africa, then as the old saying goes........."you ain't seen nothing yet"!!

Today, the rumors of just how close Assad is from collapse continued to grow and Jabhat al-Nusra is one of the primary reasons and they know it.

For months now some, like me, have asked, " what happens if Assad leaves or falls overnight"?

Just the other day I posted on the topic of the commonality of rapid collapse.

The topic of Assad and his WMDs filled the airwaves and the rooms  of many important meeting halls today, but the simple truth is; does anyone really have a plan for all of Syria if the collapse happens?

On paper, I would have to say yes, it's what many agencies do.... "plan".

The question becomes... will the "plan" work?

Assad is near the end and that is when an animal is most dangerous.

What happens next in Syria is hard to predict, but I would be willing to bet whatever the event is, Jabhat al-Nusra will demand a say in the outcome.

Yep... What a mess!!!!

http://www.dailystar.com.lb/Opinion/Columnist/2012/Dec-04/197095-syrias-opposition-warns-of-a-rise-in-extremists.ashx#axzz2E0X5ilds

AGAIN.. THE ISSUE IS INTERPRETING WHAT WAS SAID!!!!

Two days ago, when I spoke of Assad's increasing desperation as he battled for Damascus International Airport and the fact the rebels now had Surface to Air Missiles,  it should have been very clear what "option" I was insinuating he may be preparing for.

The rebels have been talking for weeks about "activities" near the Syrian WMD sites and often it may have been a case of nobody really wanting to hear that kind of bad news.

It seems now, even those who hope it would all just go away are starting to come to the realization many of us did last year; Assad will use what he has once he has no other options.

Rather than saying, " I  told you so", lets look at what he may try and accomplish.

First off, lets review carefully what his official position continues to be.

His government states they would never use WMD on their "own people"?

Does that mean those loyal to Assad?????

Does that mean Syrian people all together?

Does that mean he will make up a story about "outsiders" / "Terrorist" being inside Syria?

He has already painted that picture, one that is true to some extent, for over a year now!

Will he claim the rebels / Terrorist / captured some of these weapons and then used them on the innocent people of Syria?

That is one theory, but I must admit not only is it a weak concept, but one that will not hold an once of support by anyone with the exception of perhaps Iran.

Some of these questions are difficult to predict answers for,  so lets move onto something just as important; what if he does use WMD?

What would he use?

Where would he use them?

How would he use them/

Here are my bets.

One, he would use Nerve agents not bio..

Bio is too difficult to work with and the outcome is far less predictable.

It's also far more complicated to execute than rocket or bomb delivered chemical / nerve / agents.

When it comes to chemical agents, two facts must be taken into consideration.

1.  What is the target and who is near it?

2.  What is the lifespan of the agent used?

Rebel positions near the border of Turkey would have issues of persistency and wind direction as limiting factors.

The reaction of the Turks to such an event is almost a no brainier... the fight is on!

Utilization near the border with Israel is nothing short of suicide for Assad and his government; and that fact worries me more than I would like to admit.

A remote target is a safer bet, if there is such a thing, but the impact on the rebels will be minimized.

So, that brings up the next logical question.

Why would he risk using them?

Before I try  to answer that, let me add what really worries me.

Question!!!!

Would Assad ask for permission from Iran prior to utilizing WMD?

Are we to assume Iran will have approved of Assad's plan if it does happen?

If we make that assumption, then we have a far more complex and dangerous event about to unfold.

If he is " going it alone" then will Iran stick by his side?

This is the part of this whole WMD issue that worries me the most!

Ok, what can be done about all of this?

One article attached states Israel has already asked for permission to take preemptive action?

That lead us to the next question.

Does the rest of the world wait until the weapons are used or does the world / US and "others" neutralize an imminent threat to regional peace?

This is always the hardest issue for leadership and this time is no exception!

The answer is factored on several key issues and Iran is one of  them.

One thing is for sure, these weapons, once made, mixed, don't like just sitting around.

If Syria has really mixed WMD / Chemical weapons, the idea of having ready to go just sitting around is as dangerous as you can get.

The warning given today by the US where as hard as they can come and Assad must think long and hard before he jumps off into the abyss.

Right along side Assad is Tehran!!!

Do they truly believe there is a price to pay for utilizing WMDs?

Time will tell, and time is not on Assad's side.

http://www.jpost.com/Defense/Article.aspx?id=294441

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-20583966

http://www.debka.com/article/22583/US-Israel-Turkey-Jordan-primed-to-strike-if-Assad-activates-chemical-weapons