THE DAY AFTER.. A SNAP SHOT OF WHAT IS AHEAD IN THE MIDDLE EAST!

A day after the US elections, let me give you my perspective of what the issues are in the Middle East and what, if anything, has changed.

Perception:

The perception of the region, by the people who live in the region didn't change.

The perception the US may change it's plan for dealing with the region didn't change as well.

Challenges:

Syria, Lebanon, Egypt, Jordan, Bahrain, Kuwait... yes Kuwait, Qatar, Oman and last but not least Saudi.

If that list is not enough for you to chew on, then you are a gluten for punishment.

Ok, now lets look at the many in the world believe the cause for list of challenges.

Sunni vs Shia ///// Suppressive governments, lack of jobs; jobs at the level the educated youth of the region are qualified to do.

Now, the Sunni vs Shia issue is one many still have a hard time discussing and most often don't; especially the local "talking heads" from the region who seem to blame Israel and the West for everything and anything.

Ok, time for the next category of "Challenges"!

Here ya go:

Ottomans, Arabs, Christians, Persians, Christians and Drews.

Add on top of this, the Ottomans, Persians and Arabs are all three old Empires that long to be Empires once again.

Ah yes; for all of you who like to say it's only the issue of the old Colonial Christians that have set the region up for failure; lest you not forget the Ottomans, Persians and the Moors!!

History.... it's a two way street:)

Ok, no topic of challenges in the Middle East would be complete without the never ending topic of Oil!!!!

Who has it... who wants it.. and most importantly... who gets rich from it?

At this point in the conversation, we need to add yet another key player... the Tsar!!!!

Yep, it's impossible to talk about the region and fuel without folding the Tsar of Russia into the mix.

So, the day after the US elections; has anything really changed??????

I think you know the answer...

Next time; I will talk about what the elections in the US means to the people of Israel.

Hint... the answer is doesn't flow with the conversation above!!

THE ABSOLUTE JOKE OF THE DAY... 

Iran's attempt to draw attention to the issue of the Israeli nuclear weapons  is simply a waste of time.

So, could it be Iran is once again, subconsciously trying to say, "what's good for Israel is good for Iran"?

Drawing attention to the Israeli weapons issue is going to achieve what for Iran?

If Iran is not trying to develop nuclear weapons, insert laughter here, then why are they concerned over Israel having something they have had for decades?

 When was the last speech given by a Israeli leader talking about how the country of Iran must be destroyed... and don't be a fool and state they say it all the time.. you know exactly what I am getting at.

 Some left of left, liberal dreamers from Europe who sit down with Iran is not going to change a thing.

If a few pacifist from Europe make statements about supporting Iran, that will not stop the IDF from defending Israel!! Wake up!!

Europe has seen these "dreamers" before... Remember the guy named Chamberlain from England... "Peace in our time"????

If Iran really thinks attending this love fest is going to change a single thing, that just goes to show you how out of touch with reality their leadership truly is.

Iran is playing to the media of Europe.

The problem is, the IDF doesn't work for the media of Europe and it surly doesn't listen to the UN.

A country that is only miles wide surrounded by enemies who talk everyday of destroying their very existence will develop any weapon needed to survive and they will not  place the lives of their citizens in the hands of liberal dreamers from Europe.

http://www.jpost.com/IranianThreat/News/Article.aspx?id=290736

THE TSAR REACHES OUT TO TURKEY...WELL.. .. NOT REALLY!!!! 

Nothing has changed for the Tsar and the Russian Kingdom.

The desire is to keep Assad in power, at least as long as it take to find an alternative that will still " work" with the Russians.

I did find it somewhat amuzing last week when the rebels and the Russians had the same opinion of the US's new requirements for rebel leadership.

These are the same Russians the rebels despise for backing Assad, yet they both lash out at the US for the latest "idea" from the West / US.

Now, it's clear one of the overarching issues for the Russians is to not so damage relationships with Turkey that the price of saving it's relationship with Syria ruins the one with Turkey.

Oh by the way, the two of them have something far more important incommon than Syria and Assad..... .fuel!!!

As for this "Three-member group" concept; well it's nice to see the Russians can get stuck on a deadened theory just as bad as the West.

 I'm not sure Erdogan really believes there is any value in this " three-group" idea, but it does give him a little wiggle room with the Tsar.

So, is this concept going anywhere?

No!!!

Does the Tsar and Erdogan know that?

Yep!!

Does that make it a waste of time?

Well, in the world of international diplomacy, one often doesn't really have to make progress; one simply has to look as if they are trying to do so!

http://www.worldbulletin.net/?aType=haber&ArticleID=98113

SO.. .WHY SYRIAN TANKS ON THE ISRAELI BORDER?

I lot has been made of the three tanks that showed up yesterday in the demilitarized buffer zone with Israel.

Nobody and I mean nobody thinks this is an act to provoke Israel; at least no sane person believes this.

Three tanks hardly constitutes a forward press to contact with Israel.

So, what is going on?

If the Rebels / Resistance fighters.. you pick... learned anything from the events along the Turkish border, it's how to hide close to sensitive areas.

I can assure you the IDF is spending as much if not more time figuring out who those tanks are looking for as they are watching the tanks.

The odds of there being a smuggling route in that area is nil to none.

The odds are some group is traversing that area are hiding nearby is better than aveage.

What a great concept... hide near the IDF positions but no so close the IDF gets too worried; knowing all the time the Syrian military will be hard pressed to take any action that would risk IDF retaliation.

Should the IDF be worried about who these groups are?

You bet!!!

If anyone thinks all of these groups are simply common Syrian fighters, they are fooling themselves.

The IDF can't risk letting these groups pretend they are simple freedom fighters and then find out after the fact they are IQ or some other radical Islamic force looking to slip into Israel.

That is not going to happen.

So you see, this is a delicate game with very dangerous overtones not just three tanks showing up in a restricted area.

Mistakes can be made and mistakes can lead to greater mistakes..... Just ask the Turks.

http://www.jpost.com/Defense/Article.aspx?id=290414

THE SINAI.. WHO'S FUTURE BATTLEFIELD IS IT?

No one should doubt the issue of how important the Sinai is to both the current government of Egypt and to Israel.

al-Qaida affiliated groups and the Muslim Brotherhood have very different goals for the area, and Israel doesn't trust ether of them.

For Israel, the issue of the Sinai brings on the problem of deploying additional assets and resources to support those assets. 

That puts them in a position of moving units from one area to another or calling up reserve units that would not be typically placed on extended duty.

Israel will continue to treat threats from this region much as it does threats from Gaza.

It may not be Muslim Brotherhood sponsored organizations threading to attack Israel, although all Sunni radical groups have their origin with the MB, but that will not stop Israel from blaming Egypt for any action that comes from the Sinai and the MB knows this.

An uneasy alliance between the two countries militaries, one that has worked for decades, is now in  question given the new government in Egypt.

The Sinai is as dangerous to Egypt as it is to Israel.

The MB knows if it fails to show the world it can control events in the Sinai, it has no chance of showing the world they can broker a true peace deal on the Palestinian statehood issue.

You can hear the critics now, " if Egypt cannot control events in the Sinai, their own land, then how can they expect to predict the peace of a Palestinian statehood"?

The issue is this.

Solve your own internal conflicts first before you think you have the authority or the creditability to solve the problems of "others".

Yes... the Sinai is a dangerous issue for Egypt.

Sometimes words and speaches simply don't win the day.

Egypt has a problem with the Sinai and it better find a way to deal with it soon!

A major strike into Israel from the Sinai and Israel will solve the Sinai issue as it did in the past.... Occupation.

http://www.jpost.com/MiddleEast/Article.aspx?id=290187

MEAN WHAT YOU SAY AND SAY WHAT YOU MEAN

Two very clear messages are in this article.

1. Israel will not wait for the West / US / to take action if the time comes.

            Some still don't believe that or as I would say, some still don't want to believe it.

2.  Israel will not allow Assad to arm Israel's enemies if he thinks he is about to lose his     rule.

Both of these comments were not put out there for the consumption of the US or the UN.

They are exactly what they seem to be; warnings to Israel's enemies.

Who is right and who is wrong is not the issue.

Once again, the concept of " Red Lines" is being demonstrated by Barak and Israel.

Could Israel being pulling a failure line from post 9-11???

" You are ether with us or against us"!!

That is how I have heard some of the talking heads interoperate Israel's actions and statements over the past few months.

Those that perceive the message this way need to take a course in comprehension.

The statement is clear...

Israel will do what it needs to do, even the most disastrous  / dangerous things / when the time comes if it must.

As I have said time and time again; I hope the enemies of Israel understand this.

For all the "talk" of standing up to Israel in a war, the region has no military on par with Israel and they all know it.

Again, who is right and who is wrong is lost in the fog of tension.

Barak didn't chose to make these two bold statements today for the fun of it.

He is not trying to boost his standing in the eyes of the Israeli people.

This message was not for the Israeli people.

Those who aspire to destroy Israel know all too well who this message was for.

The people wish to avoid conflict with Israel are running out of options.

To rise up against your own leadership, leadership that is not supported by the people of the land they rule, is a more acceptable act than destroying everything they have for the sake of hate.

Beware of " Chicken Little" mentalities in the region.

Israel is not Chicken Little.

http://www.jpost.com/Defense/Article.aspx?id=290012

BAHRAIN JUMPS ON THE HAMAS BANDWAGON???

I just have to wonder what Mr Abbas thinks of all this attention suddenly being given to Hamas.

Strange how the Gulf states are counting on the US and Israel to deal with the real threat to the GCC wealth.. Iran, yet they seem ready to kiss the ring of Hamas!!

I wonder if the GCC leaders remember an old saying from their part of the world.

Just because you feed a Scorpion, that doesn't mean it won't sting you!!!!

Now, some are arguing this is all a ploy by the GCC to try and get Hamas and the Fatah factions to settle their differences, but I simply don't buy that theory.

If that were true, we would see dual meetings...

Again, there is no mention of Mustafa al-Sayyed, visiting Abbas in the West Bank, so how is this an attempt to bring the two factions together?

Hamas, the group that is 90 percent back in the camp of the Muslim Brotherhood; a Brotherhood that invasions tearing down the Royal Families of the GCC.

So, perhaps this is an attempt to "buy" the Hamas love..

If so, the wrong target is being chosen for this point in time.

The most immediate threat to the GCC Royals comes from Tehran and the Shia and the Royals know it.

A strange game is being played out here and as is always the case in the Middle East, nobody knows the second order effects of this game.

http://www.dailystar.com.lb/News/Middle-East/2012/Oct-30/193254-bahraini-prince-to-visit-gaza-on-thursday.ashx#axzz2An58S79e