CHINA AND THE RISK OF SPONSORED "PROTEST".

Early on in the Arab Spring / Tunisian Virus/ I wrote about the fear in China of such a social event taking place on the "mainland".

http://www.blogger.com/blogger.g?blogID=7459309648379320825#editor/target=post;postID=8370746890754349993

http://www.blogger.com/blogger.g?blogID=7459309648379320825#editor/target=post;postID=5514219838309665719

As I watch and read of the events taking place there now, the Bo event and the issue with Japan, I can't help but wonder what China may be trying to achieve or perhaps, may be trying to avoid!

One theory on the Bo incident that I have is based upon the possibility of conflict within the Chinese ruling party.

Could it be that a more Nationalistic line of thinking is attempting to rise to the forefront of Chinese leadership?

Could it be that those who have lived in the world of, "we must be patient and passive in order to overtake the West", have lost their collective "passive attitude"?

Is there a faction in China that truly believes the time for China to move to the head of the line is now?

Was the move against Bo, a move to put this faction back in check?

One thing is for sure; China needs to be very careful how they manipulate   "protest" inside China.

The disappearance of the perceived inbound leader for over two weeks was a topic that did not go unnoticed by many in the world.

What was the reasoning behind that event???? Soccer injury??? ya.. right...

Allowing the youth of China to mass and then become violent is something the Chinese leadership can not underestimate.

If a truly Nationalistic fervor is taking shape in China and the current target of that fervor is Japan, no love loss there, then the "Party" might just find itself trying to cope with an issue that could easily transition into a far more dangerous topic.

Public dissatisfaction with the "Party".

We only need to look at the events in Egypt to understand how a movement can start with one intention in mind, and end up with a completely different outcome.

I know this; China and the concept of "Nationalism" is a far more dangerous issue than protest at Western Embassies over a trumped up video.

http://www.atimes.com/atimes/China/NI19Ad02.html

IRAN AND HEZBOLLAH.. TRYING TO KEEP THE DISTRACTION.

As I said yesterday, Iran is desperately trying to keep up the distraction created by the scripted protest.

To risk having Nasrallah show his face in public give us an indication of just how hard Iran and Hezbollah are trying to fan the flames.

So, is there  a risk of Iran / Hezbollah / turning this "event" into a game changer?

Nope!

Anyone who believes the Sunni / Arabs / and the Shia / Persians will jointly execute a plan that serves the purpose of Iran... well they are a fool!!!

It's already clear to the MB and Morsi the whole thing has gotten out of control and they realize Iran is now attempting to hijack the issue.

On a side note, I can't help but believe there isn't a little " revenge" by Iran towards Morsi as payback for his jab at Iran during the Nonaligned conference in Tehran.

Although this is a stunt for the purpose of helping Iran take some of the pressure off of Syria, Hezbollah gets something out of it as well.

The crowd he gathered inside Lebanon lets the March 14th / Sunni  / faction know just how mush influence he still has in the country.

As I said yesterday, try as they may, Iran will not get this "event" to work for them very much longer.

The Sunni drive against the Shia is not going to be delayed and the MB has already seen through the Iranian plot.

The protest may linger for a few more days, but I wouldn't count on it going anywhere, unless Iran utilizes the Qud or Hezbollah to instigate another dramatic event.

Even if Iran is able to pull that off, the Sunni leadership / MB / will see through it and will probably try to make "points" with the West by disrupting the event or helping place blame where it belongs.

Yes, no " friendship" last forever in the Middle East and the stoking of these protest never really amounted to a "friendship" to begin with.

http://www.aljazeera.com/news/middleeast/2012/09/2012917155027106315.html

MORSI's AND THE SINAI DILEMMA  

How could it possibly be the tribe of the Sinai could not follow the Master Plan the MB / Morsi have put together for them?

I bet this is a question he and the MB may be asking right about now, although I'm not convenced what we are witnessing is not part of that plan.

Never the less, if it turns out the factions inside the Sinai are truly revolting towards the current government in Egypt, then Morsi has a big... big... problem.

My hunch is he knew some of the factions in the area would not follow his plan, but he and the MB have hoped to convert / convince / enough of them to keep the area stable until it was time to utilize them against Israel.

So, within two weeks, we have now seen two examples of Morsi not having everything go according to "plan".

First was the fiasco of the Cairo protest and now the continuation of the Sinai unrest.

One thing is for sure, again, Morsi and the MB are continuing to learn it is far easier to Run for Office and control than it is to actually be in control.

Let's see how the Sinai turns out for him.

I'm still not convinced he and the MB may not be playing " Good Cop / Bad Cop"; again!!!

http://www.debka.com/article/22360/Al-Qaeda-led-Salafis-hit-three-Egyptian-Sinai-bases-down-Egyptian-chopper-

 http://www.aljazeera.com/news/middleeast/2012/09/201291682915656385.html

IRAN  PRAYS  THE "UNREST" WILL CONTINUE.

As much as Iran would love to see the distraction from the Sunni onslaught of the Shia, the simple fact of the matter is, the recent unrest in the region will not stop the fall of Assad, the collapse of Hezbollah in Lebanon and the Arab Spring from spreading into Iran.

The events of this week may not have been coordinated by Iran, but the results, as temporary as they were, gave them exactly what they had been praying for.

It's obvious Iran would love nothing more than to create a unifying event for the Shia and the Sunni and in the process stop the Sunni juggernaut.

Iran knows all too well the events of Cairo were coordinated by Morsi and the events in Lybia were the brainchild of AQ.

They can make all the claims from Tehran they possibly can about this being a sign of the " Infidel" vs the Muslim faith, but it just won't work.

I would absolutely expect Iran to try their best to keep this "unrest" going as long as possible and because of that the West must be very careful on who we blame the next round of violence / terrorist acts.... and there will be more.

Iran's problem is, Morsi's "stunt" in Cairo nearly backfire on him and I don't look for him to push the envelope like that again anytime soon and the MB sure the heck isn't going to do anything to further the cause of the Shai / Persians.

In the spirit of keeping this simple and short; lets recap what happened and what is not going to happen.

Lybia's attack was a AQ event plane and simple.

Morsi's event was a test run for his new and improved version of Islamic radical and it almost backfired on him; as a matter of fact, he is having a hard time with "damage control" both in Egypt and in the West and most of all with the "old School Islamist".

What is not going to happen is ether AQ or the MB continuing any action that takes pressure off of Tehran.

The issue will continue to be the Sunni movement in the region and the fall of Assad, and Hezbollah.

Remember, that doesn't mean we will not see more "Events" soon as Iran tries as hard as it can to keep the " Us against Them" movement going.

WHERE DID THE "BLACK FLAGS GO??? BET I KNOW!!!

So, the day after the " Black Flags" of AQ showed up in Cairo, they have now disappeared?

Why?

I'll tell you why... Morsi and the MB realized the damage this image was about to do to their cause.

The flags may have played well to the Arab youth, but it was obvious the Western media caught on to the significance of their symbolism ,and the MB had to be careful not to let this event spin too far out of control.

As I said yesterday, the AQ Flag has become the new Battle Banner for Islamist in general and the events of Cairo have given this flag a whole new level of prominence.

The flags were visible in Tunisia today as well as in other countries, but not in Egypt?

Why is that?

Answer: Mr Morsi and the MB that's why!

The  travesty of Libya and the events in Cairo are related only in the fact they both took place, deliberately, on the anniversary of 9-11.

Was the protest in Cairo and AQ operation?

In my opinion, no, and that answer leads to a far more interesting and important issue; the transformation of the Islamist movement.

As I said yesterday, I believe we are witnessing the deliberate changing of the guard!

The Bearded Cave dwellers of the AQ movement are being phased out, marginalized or at least this is the plan of the MB.

The new Islamic movement, as designed by the MB is what we witnessed in Cairo.

 Yes.. This is not " Your Father's Cadillac" AQ movement anymore!

That doesn't mean the Bearded Ones will not be relevant, but soon they will no longer be the "Center of Gravity" for the Fundamentalist Islamic movement.

Interesting enough, this transformation is not part of the current AQ leaderships plan.

It's not their idea to become irrelevant while the more patient, methodical Muslim Brotherhood takes control of the movement.

The " Neanderthal" version of AQ is going to be replaced by the "Homosapien" Islamist... and the change agent is the Muslim Brotherhood.

AQ was born under the vision of the MB, and it has served it's purpose well from the standpoint of the MB.

But, the time seems to have come for the next chapter in the MB Master Plan and that chapter calls for the retirement of the AQ style of business.

Does this sound outrageous to you?

I didn't even believe my own logic at first, but the more I watched Morsi, the more I began to understand where the MB heading.

Make no mistake, the AQ version of Islamic Fundamentalism still has it's place as the MB  / Mursi / continues to execute a classic " Good Cop... Bad Cop" scam against the Infidels.  

When the time comes, and it will come, the old AQ ways and the old "leaders" will be betrayed and forced into the pages of history.

You see, they, like the Shia and the Persians and the Ottomans are nothing but Pawns in the Muslim Brotherhood's Master Plan.

If you think this sounds like the ramblings of a fool...well... lets just watch Muris at work for the next few years and we shall see.

A PICTURE OF THE " GAME CHANGER".

Two events in the past 24 hrs have dominated the news, but one I will refrain from talking about, ie the events in Libya. Why I refrain from this is event is based upon some of my private feelings and I must keep from stating them at this point in my life.

So, let me get on with the event in Egypt and what it means to the rest of the free world.

Take a good look at the picture I have attached to this post.

Is this the mental picture you have when someone says, " Islamic Fundamentalist / Radical Islamist?

The obvious answer for most of the world is no!

So, why does this picture worry people like me?

For almost two years some have had the opinion the Arab Spring had been and would be kidnapped by the Islamist.

I think I've had that conversation a thousand times since the first protest in Tunisia.

The ability of key influential, persuasive, manipulative "leaders" to talk young, unemployed, "lost" young men into committing violent acts; acts they may not truly understand the true purpose; well...... It works!

Creating an "us against them" climate is not hard to do when you are persuading people who are lost on the path of life.

So, here comes the million dollar question!

Is this the new face of Islamic Radicalism?  

Is this the mutation of AQ that UBL dreamed of?

You see, AQ was never intended to be a group of Elitist Fighters who march into martyrdom while the rest of the Muslim world sing songs about their exploits.

UBL's dream was to have the movement go, in the words of my coworker, "Mainstream".

The Black flag of AQ, the one the US DoS would not admit to this morning, has become the new " Battle Banner" for the youth of Egypt, or so it would seem.

Is that all the youth?

No, but it's the ones that didn't wave that flag last year that count.

Ok; from the very beginning of the Arab Spring / Tunisian Virus /  my name for the movement I will not come off of, the fear was the transformation of young, unemployed adults, grasping onto something that gives them purpose.

It's what lost young people do.

Now, some might be speed reading this post and jump to the conclusion I am painting a picture of all the young people in Egypt morphing into AQ members... far from it.

In reality, it is the AQ mindset that is transforming and the "Masters" of that transformation in the Mother Ship of the movement... The Muslim Brotherhood!

What was Morsi play in the events of yesterday?

If you say he had no play in that day, you are a fool and fools go into history as the stepping stones of others.

Let me spell out for you what I believe happened yesterday in Egypt.

Morsi has been on a steady course to transform Egypt into the center of the Muslim world and  to have the Sunni dominance of that world.

What better way to test his new " Militia" of youth, after nutralizing the Generals in the Egyptian Military, then to give them a mission.

Let me ask you something.

Does anyone really think all these "kids", look at the photo again, were just sitting around the with these brand new, clean black flags, the flag of AQ, and suddenly decided to protest at the US embassy over a movie on You Tube that has been out for months?

And so these "kids" happen to have one of these black flags larger than the others they had mounted to sticks to carry, that they could replace the US flag on the US compound?

Really... that was a spontaneous event??? Really????

This was not a IED event.. this was not an open, attack to kill a US Ambassador... this was not a classic AQ event.

This was Morsi's new militia going on a test run; a militia based on Islamic values driven to violence by a few key leaders... the MB.

How in the world did they get to the walls of the US embassy on the anniversary of 9-11?

Was the date not a indicator to the Egyptian government to have extra security near the US compound?.... Really???

Look at the pictures... look how long the event took place... Where were the guards?

If there is a reason they are not in the photos, and I would bet there is some lame political level response by Egypt, then the other problem is the perception of the American public.

I could go on and on, but the facts are becoming ever more clear..

The time of the free world trying to find a way to live with Islamic Fundamentalist; even some perceived " middle of the road version" like the MB is gone!

It is time to see Morsi for what he is.. the reprehensive leader of a well oiled, dangerous movement with a long history of death...the Brotherhood!

It's time to understand the dream of UBL, a child of the MB movement, could be coming true.

The old AQ may be still out there with all the talk of them being dysfunctional due to killing key leaders, but the fact of the matter is the Islamic Awakening make be taking hold and it may be taking hold in a group that is susceptible to any form of pride and hope...   something Morsi and his MB knows better than anyone else in the Middle East.

This event was far more than a protest against some You Tube clip.

This could very well be the first round of a new, more recognized phase of the MB "Master Plan"..

FOLLOW UP TO " BE CAREFUL WHAT YOU ASK FOR"!

A few weeks back, I talked about the second and third order effects of "Sanctions".

Now, it's a common understanding the current list of sanctions on Iran have two primary goals; one to limit the capability of Iran to procure items needed to further the weapons process and secondly, to place social pressure on the government of Iran.

As I said before, the impact of social stress works in a democratically run government.

The concept of Social Pressures driving the people of Iran to the point of forcing change in Iran seemed all but impossible, that is until we witnessed what has taken place in Syria.

Now, true, the events in Syria were not stimulated by Western sanctions, but the truly startling event in Syria was the process of the unarmed people having the courage to stand up and take to the streets.

Yes, the people of Iran have tried this before and no it didn't work.

That is not a historical issue the Iranian government can rest their future on.

I am the first to admit the issue of sanctions can have an impact on the Iranian people's attitude towards the West, but it appears that is a risk that has been assumed.

Will the threat of hyper inflation lead the people of Iran to take to the streets?

Perhaps, but not anytime soon.

Could it lead to the already paranoid Iranian leadership lashing out at a common excuse such as Israel?

That is my fear!

Will the sanctions lead to a split between Ahmadinejad his Boss?

Most likely!

The question then becomes, how far is Ahmadinejad willing to be pushed onto the sword of blame and will he do anything to fight back?

One is a Persian Nationalist and one is a Islamic radical and there is no real love between them.

Did the West take this tension into consideration before the sanction's plan was implemented?

I seriously doubt it!!!!!!

So, what is going to be the impact of the sanctions concept?

The prevention of an Iranian nuclear weapons program?

Nope!

The fall of the radical government?

Not anytime soon.

The Radical government lashing out at some point to distract the Iranian people?

Most likely!!!

One thing is for certain, the sanctions are taking a bite out of the average person on the streets in Iran and that person is going to blame someone.

http://www.jpost.com/IranianThreat/News/Article.aspx?id=284675