A PICTURE OF THE " GAME CHANGER".

Two events in the past 24 hrs have dominated the news, but one I will refrain from talking about, ie the events in Libya. Why I refrain from this is event is based upon some of my private feelings and I must keep from stating them at this point in my life.

So, let me get on with the event in Egypt and what it means to the rest of the free world.

Take a good look at the picture I have attached to this post.

Is this the mental picture you have when someone says, " Islamic Fundamentalist / Radical Islamist?

The obvious answer for most of the world is no!

So, why does this picture worry people like me?

For almost two years some have had the opinion the Arab Spring had been and would be kidnapped by the Islamist.

I think I've had that conversation a thousand times since the first protest in Tunisia.

The ability of key influential, persuasive, manipulative "leaders" to talk young, unemployed, "lost" young men into committing violent acts; acts they may not truly understand the true purpose; well...... It works!

Creating an "us against them" climate is not hard to do when you are persuading people who are lost on the path of life.

So, here comes the million dollar question!

Is this the new face of Islamic Radicalism?  

Is this the mutation of AQ that UBL dreamed of?

You see, AQ was never intended to be a group of Elitist Fighters who march into martyrdom while the rest of the Muslim world sing songs about their exploits.

UBL's dream was to have the movement go, in the words of my coworker, "Mainstream".

The Black flag of AQ, the one the US DoS would not admit to this morning, has become the new " Battle Banner" for the youth of Egypt, or so it would seem.

Is that all the youth?

No, but it's the ones that didn't wave that flag last year that count.

Ok; from the very beginning of the Arab Spring / Tunisian Virus /  my name for the movement I will not come off of, the fear was the transformation of young, unemployed adults, grasping onto something that gives them purpose.

It's what lost young people do.

Now, some might be speed reading this post and jump to the conclusion I am painting a picture of all the young people in Egypt morphing into AQ members... far from it.

In reality, it is the AQ mindset that is transforming and the "Masters" of that transformation in the Mother Ship of the movement... The Muslim Brotherhood!

What was Morsi play in the events of yesterday?

If you say he had no play in that day, you are a fool and fools go into history as the stepping stones of others.

Let me spell out for you what I believe happened yesterday in Egypt.

Morsi has been on a steady course to transform Egypt into the center of the Muslim world and  to have the Sunni dominance of that world.

What better way to test his new " Militia" of youth, after nutralizing the Generals in the Egyptian Military, then to give them a mission.

Let me ask you something.

Does anyone really think all these "kids", look at the photo again, were just sitting around the with these brand new, clean black flags, the flag of AQ, and suddenly decided to protest at the US embassy over a movie on You Tube that has been out for months?

And so these "kids" happen to have one of these black flags larger than the others they had mounted to sticks to carry, that they could replace the US flag on the US compound?

Really... that was a spontaneous event??? Really????

This was not a IED event.. this was not an open, attack to kill a US Ambassador... this was not a classic AQ event.

This was Morsi's new militia going on a test run; a militia based on Islamic values driven to violence by a few key leaders... the MB.

How in the world did they get to the walls of the US embassy on the anniversary of 9-11?

Was the date not a indicator to the Egyptian government to have extra security near the US compound?.... Really???

Look at the pictures... look how long the event took place... Where were the guards?

If there is a reason they are not in the photos, and I would bet there is some lame political level response by Egypt, then the other problem is the perception of the American public.

I could go on and on, but the facts are becoming ever more clear..

The time of the free world trying to find a way to live with Islamic Fundamentalist; even some perceived " middle of the road version" like the MB is gone!

It is time to see Morsi for what he is.. the reprehensive leader of a well oiled, dangerous movement with a long history of death...the Brotherhood!

It's time to understand the dream of UBL, a child of the MB movement, could be coming true.

The old AQ may be still out there with all the talk of them being dysfunctional due to killing key leaders, but the fact of the matter is the Islamic Awakening make be taking hold and it may be taking hold in a group that is susceptible to any form of pride and hope...   something Morsi and his MB knows better than anyone else in the Middle East.

This event was far more than a protest against some You Tube clip.

This could very well be the first round of a new, more recognized phase of the MB "Master Plan"..

FOLLOW UP TO " BE CAREFUL WHAT YOU ASK FOR"!

A few weeks back, I talked about the second and third order effects of "Sanctions".

Now, it's a common understanding the current list of sanctions on Iran have two primary goals; one to limit the capability of Iran to procure items needed to further the weapons process and secondly, to place social pressure on the government of Iran.

As I said before, the impact of social stress works in a democratically run government.

The concept of Social Pressures driving the people of Iran to the point of forcing change in Iran seemed all but impossible, that is until we witnessed what has taken place in Syria.

Now, true, the events in Syria were not stimulated by Western sanctions, but the truly startling event in Syria was the process of the unarmed people having the courage to stand up and take to the streets.

Yes, the people of Iran have tried this before and no it didn't work.

That is not a historical issue the Iranian government can rest their future on.

I am the first to admit the issue of sanctions can have an impact on the Iranian people's attitude towards the West, but it appears that is a risk that has been assumed.

Will the threat of hyper inflation lead the people of Iran to take to the streets?

Perhaps, but not anytime soon.

Could it lead to the already paranoid Iranian leadership lashing out at a common excuse such as Israel?

That is my fear!

Will the sanctions lead to a split between Ahmadinejad his Boss?

Most likely!

The question then becomes, how far is Ahmadinejad willing to be pushed onto the sword of blame and will he do anything to fight back?

One is a Persian Nationalist and one is a Islamic radical and there is no real love between them.

Did the West take this tension into consideration before the sanction's plan was implemented?

I seriously doubt it!!!!!!

So, what is going to be the impact of the sanctions concept?

The prevention of an Iranian nuclear weapons program?

Nope!

The fall of the radical government?

Not anytime soon.

The Radical government lashing out at some point to distract the Iranian people?

Most likely!!!

One thing is for certain, the sanctions are taking a bite out of the average person on the streets in Iran and that person is going to blame someone.

http://www.jpost.com/IranianThreat/News/Article.aspx?id=284675

A REOCCURRING THEORY THAT'S WORTHY OF REVIEW.

All three of these stories talk to an issue that has been bouncing around from the very beginning of the "Arab Spring".

The concept of the Arab Spring, one being hijacked by the likes of the Muslim Brotherhood movement and two having an end state that is both detrimental and advantageous to the West is nothing new.

As I have stated in over the past two years, I truly believe the Muslim Brotherhood " Master Plan" ends with an Arab Spring / Tunisian Virus / even inside of Israel.

Somewhere along this path the GCC states, especially Saudi will suffer the same fate, but the Israeli issue will wait to be the final act.

As I have said in the past, no one knows this better than the Saudis and the Israelis and it is for that reason a " pact" is not out of the question.

Both Saudi and Israel believe Iran is in a never ending quest to " weaponize" the Arab Spring movement without allowing this weapon to create doom inside Tehran.

Again, my theory is the Iranians are gambling with their own existence.

The concept they wish to utilize to bring down the governments of Saudi and Israel are the very concepts that may very well spell their own end.

Although this concept of the Arab Spring being manipulated by all parties in the Middle East is not new, what has changed is the reality of the fall out.

The process of "Weaponization" of the Arab Spring has ignited the tinderbox of sectarian conflict.

With the lack of truly professional governorship in the Middle East and this long history of sectarian hatred, the weapon created has quickly begun to overwhelm both sides of the conflict.

What I find amazing, and perhaps I shouldn't give the history of the Middle East, is the fact that all sides of this conflict seem more interested in concurring the other than they are stopping the beast that is in the process of destroying all sides in the region.

What is happening in the region is quickly becoming uncontrollable by all sides involved to include the worlds major powers.

The ability to be " proactive" is all but gone in the Middle East.

The technology of weapons mixed with long lasting hate topped off by youthful unemployment is in the process of turning the whole region into a uncontrollable fire.

Those who are reluctant to make hard decisions about controlling these events in the Middle East are about to run out of time and will realize all too late just how destructive the impact will be to the rest of the world.

As oil goes, so goes the world economy...

If you don't believe that, than you to will watch history unfold right in front of your very eyes.

http://www.aljazeera.com/programmes/insidestory/2012/09/201291010263945370.html

http://www.worldbulletin.net/?aType=haber&ArticleID=95282

http://www.jpost.com/DiplomacyAndPolitics/Article.aspx?id=284593

ERDOGAN REDEFINES THE SYRIAN GOVERNMENT.

You can find several versions of this story on the web, but only a few picked up on the real issue... the PKK...

 http://english.nuqudy.com/Levant/Turkey_Calls_Syria_-3128

Ergogan's frustration with the West, namely the US, is also beginning to show up more an more frequently.

His comment in his CNN interview that ' perhaps' the US November elections has something to do with the lack of movement', is a subtle but deliberate shot at the US.

Having said this, lets get down to brass tacks about the Middle East.

This might not go over well with many of the leaders there, but  the simple fact is very few countries in the Middle East really care about " Refugee issues".

If you don't believe me, I would ask you to look at the Palestinian " Refugee Camps".

The Palestinians can't own land, they can't have citizenship in countries where most of them under the age of 40 were born and raised.

Now, those countries will say something like, " we cannot give them citisenship because that would be admitting to Israel the Palestinian State will never exist"!!!!..

Right!!!

The truth of the matter is, they don't want these "nomads" sticking around, voting and beginning to place demands on the governments where they live.

Again, just go ask the Palestinians who live in Lebanon how they are treated... or try Jordan.

Erdogan is far more concerned about the destabilizing factor these Syrian refugees bring to the tribal areas of Turkey then he is about their overall welfare.

Unfortunately, that is not the issue that caused his statement about Syria being a Terrorist run state.

The truth of the matter is the issue that keeps Erdogan up at night is the PKK and the Kurds!

A Kurdish uprising, a Kurdish Spring, is a true nightmare to Turkey.

Erdogan also realizes Assad has decided to support the PKK given Assad's knowledge of the Turkish support to the Syrian rebels.

Here is what I believe Erdogan is really up to when he relabeled the Syrian government.

His attempts to get the West to support a " No Fly Zone".. a flawed   concept by the way, has gone nowhere.

If Erdogan could have achieved a " Safe Zone / No Fly Zone" in Northern Syria, the ability of the Kurds to strike out on their own would have been severely impacted.

Without this outside support, the idea of Turkey moving on Syria unilaterally was unachievable and would have ended in a political trap for Erdogan's party.  

Knowing this  "Safe Zone" concept of keeping the Kurds in check is not going to work, Erdogan has redefined what the problem is in Syria.

Terrorism!!! The key concept that Erdogan hopes will unlock the door to military action in Syria.

Think about it.

To create a " Free Zone / No Fly Zone / the outside world would have to openly risk war with Iran / Iraq and Syria and everyone knows it.. that's why nobody will vote for it.. .the Russians and the Chinese are doing the rest of the world a favor and at the same time taking the heat....... Ingenious on our part!!!!

But, when you change the topic to " Terrorism" we suddenly redefine what is allowed.

In the war on Terrorism, we are allowed to conduct ' limited strikes' inside someone's country without committing to a full scale operation; think of the US operations in Pakistan as a prime example.

A drone strike here.. a cruse missile there and the next thing you know, Assad is knocked from a balance of power without a committed / sanctioned operation in Syria.

The lovely world of ambiguous Terrorism operations.

Erdogan is a good student and he knows this process may just give him what he needs... the right to fly into Syrian airspace... take out PKK sites in Syria and yet not be accused of attacking the Assad regime.

Remember, Iran doesn't want a war with Turkey, they can't afford it!

If the Iranians believe Turkey is taking action on Syrian land but it's limited to the PKK, it may just tell Assad to sit tight...

Remember... Iran has no love for the Kurdish issue as well.

Erdogan has one issue on his mind right now when it comes to Syria and that is the Kurdish issue.

He loves the idea of oil trade with them, thereby controlling their economic pace, but the idea of Kurds forming a Kurdistan is completely out of the question and he will not allow that concept to take root   inside Syria.

The refugee issue is a false issue in the Middle East, unless you are talking about their ability to create unrest in the countries where they flee.

The Kurds are issue number one in Turkey and that is an issue that will be dealt with one way or another. 

MURSI AND THE COURSE CHOSEN BY THE BROTHERHOOD!

Everyday, as I read more and more about the actions of Mr. Mursi, I become more convinced that my theory of a " Master Plan" for the MB is in process.

Less that a week after traveling to Iran and trumping the Iranian leadership, Mursi is now out to take over the concept Iran tried to take credit for.

Iran tried to formulate a "Troika" on the Syrian issue, but Mursi would not be out done.

Today, as he announced his "Quartet, it was obvious he had pulled ahead of Iran in the Statesmanship race.

Side note: I wonder how the Turkish leadership is reacting to the drive by Mursi to be the Regional Statesmen?

As Iran did with him, Mursi was smart to invite the Iranian leadership to the meeting.

The one thing Mursi will not make the mistake of is letting Iran play the trump card on Mursi's political stunt/ Quartet.

When this meeting takes place, it will be about Mursi.

What will be even more interesting is how the Saudi's and the Turks react and what they have to say.

Now, as you read this short article, you will notice a message inside the message.

Big surprise for the Middle East huh??

Remember my theory of the Muslim Brotherhood's "end state" for the region.

The Arab Spring in Israel.

Solving the Syrian issue is just a step in the journey to reinstating the Palestinian state.

The problem has become the Syrian phase of the plan has taken far too long.

Mursi and the MB need the Syrian issue behind them and that means they need to see the Suni / Syrian Muslim Brotherhood running Damascus.

In this long journey, if Iran must fall in a reckless war with Israel... well that is what we call a "twofer"..... Persians dealt with and Israel trying to climb out of a horrific war.. a war were the Israeli people will be ready for peace and normality.

So you see, Mursi needs the Syrian issue behind him..

It's is taking too long and the MB Master Plan is falling behind schedule, even for a group as patient as the MB.

What comes out of this "Quarted" will not be near as interesting as how the attendees react to what is said.

http://www.worldbulletin.net/?aType=haber&ArticleID=94981

FOLLOWING THE TURKISH MODEL:

70 Generals "retiring" all nearly at the same time is not a coincidence.

Once again we see Mursi executing his "plan" in a pattern that is all to recognizable to all of us  now.

Simply do something... smile.. and then make a comment about how nothing extraordinary is happening and everyone should just ignore the event.

It's a skill Mursi continues to demonstrate that I find fascinating.

This particular plan, the replacement of Egyptian Generals is one I anticipated months ago.

Mursi is a good student of successful movements and he studied the events in Turkey well.

If you have a group of military leaders who may not follow you or worse yet, may pose a threat to your leadership... simply replace them with ones that will support you.

If you are a young Senior Officer in the Egyptian military and you see your seniors being removed, you have two choices.. follow them ... or fall in line.

With each passing day, Mursi shows the rest of the world just how deliberate and calculated he and the Muslim Brotherhood really are.

The worlds attention span right now is not even close to watching what goes on in the Egyptian military ranks.

The world, with the exception of the Israeli leadership that is!!!

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-19456182

HEZBOLLAH... MORE DESPERATE BY THE DAY!

For months Iran has charged Hezbollah and the Iranian Quds forces with executing a series  of attacks on Israeli targets; a mission that has only once proven to execute successfully.

As I have stated time and time again, these attacks appear to be primarily to goat Israel into action; action that Iran needs to have a chance of surviving the changes in the Middle East.

Hezbollah has been agreeable to this task given two things, one Iran is their "Master" and key supplier and two, like Iran Hezbollah realizes their time is possibly coming to an end.

http://www.lebanonews.net/mainhl.asp?hlid=9282

http://www.lebanonews.net/mainhl.asp?hlid=9279

In the past three months, Nasrallah and his minions have seen the beginning of the end of Hezbollah rule in Lebanon, thus his desperation now matches Iran's; they both need "outside" conflict and they need it soon.

The problem with Narallah's dream is the simple fact he knows the real enemy is the Sunni movement crossing the region.

When the dust settles, there will be no Hezbollah based power group in Lebanon.

When the dust settles, Hezbollah will be forced to make a choice; become a truly minority political movement or simply be a Terrorist based, marginalized organization much like Al - Quada 

Hezbollah's time is coming to and end or......... it's time for a change.

The choice is up to it's followers far more than it is up to it's leaders.

http://www.jpost.com/IranianThreat/News/Article.aspx?id=283706