IS IRAN FINALLY PLAYING IT'S HAND?

This press announcement by Masoud Jazayeri is interesting.

It is my understanding,  this is the first open press release, if you can call

the Fars News agency open, where Iran warns other Arab states to stay out of

the events taking place in Syria.

The mostly muted microphone from Tehran has been more than unusual over the

past sixteen months of conflict in Syria.

Most governments understand explicitly the strategic importance of Syria to

Iran.

It's for that exact reason the mostly silent response from Tehran on Syria

has been puzzling.

Iran's support to Assad's government is undeniable, but the open criticism

public information campaign by Iran has been virtually nonexistent. 

 So why this bold statement now and why such a precise message to Saudi?

I'm not sure the Iranian leadership was has ever been really convinced Assad

would fall.

With the events of the past week and the feedback Tehran must be receiving

from its operatives in Syria that thought process may have just officially

changed.

I would be willing to bet Iran has been contemplating Assad's fall and a

Sunni government in Syria, but the Risk Assessment Iran calculated did not

lead them to believe they need to place a bold warning to the supporters of

the rebels.

Again, that appears to have changed.

The attacks in Damascus, Aleppo and the border crossings all taking place

within a one week period has apparently had a dramatic impact on Iran.

Floating this threat by a lower level Commander is a sign the Iranian's are

still cautious of drawing a line in the sand, just yet.

My bet is, if actions in Aleppo continue and the border crossings are not

secured, thus preventing resupply, Iran will ratchet up this warning.

Assad's statement about WMD operations followed by this Iranian threat is no

coincidence.

http://www.jpost.com/IranianThreat/News/Article.aspx?id=278729

PROMISES BY ASSAD.. WITH A HIDDEN MESSAGE.

The Syrian government  was under extreme pressure, most likely from Moscow, to make a statement today on the issue of WMD.

The US Press "look alike" Jihad Makdissi, I wonder if that is his real first name, took to the podium and tried to assure the world about the status of Syrian WMD actions.

What he said was more than predictable, but Syria meant must be reviewed carefully.

" External aggression"!

The only event that would lead to WMD utilization by Assad?

Ok, you get it....

What is "external aggression"?

Who defines the term?

Yep, Assad does.

Here is the problem and it's a huge one, with the term " external aggression".

For months Assad's government, along with support from Moscow and Tehran, has made the argument that the rebels were receiving "external" support.

Notice the word "External" was part of the tripwire definition of when Assad may use WMD operations!

This word was chosen with extreme caution before today's press announcement.

As I have said in the past, the "word game" in the Middle East is a art form that cannot be overlooked.

Two other statements came out of Syria's announcement today and both of them worried me as much as the word game.

Jihad stated if the decision to utilize WMDs was made it would be made by the "Generals".

Now, does anyone truly believe for a single second Assad would not be the one to give the orders to the Generals?

Jihad would have the world believe that if the weapons are used, Assad will be informed by his Generals!!!

Give me a break!

It's absolutely clear what Assad's messenger is trying to do and that is to attempt to distance Assad from an WMD actions.

A stunt like this will not be successful, and it worries me it was part of the briefing.

Why brief who would be responsible, if you didn't have plans to utilized the weapon?

If Assad has given the pre-approval to his key military leaders to execute as they see fit, then we are simply waiting for the right moment in time to witness the event.

The second slip of the tongue out of the Syrian government today was the issue of " Terrorist" utilizing chemical weapons.

A weak attempt was made to paint the picture of " Terrorist" possibly being responsible for any WMD act they may take place in Syria.

Just as the Generals might be blamed for utilizing WMD, the Syrian spokesmen attempted to build an argument a WMD event might the results of "Terrorist", thus again.. providing Assad probable denial.

Once again; it would not work.

My final concern on this whole discussion of WMD threats in Syria is the simple question of "why"?

Why did Assad feel pressured  to give this canned statement today?

At the beginning of this post, I made the statement this whole stunt may have been the result of prodding from Moscow and or Tehran.

I still think this could be the issue, but one other thought comes to mind.

Within the past day, the Israeli government has made it very clear they will not stand by and accept the threat of Assad's WMD stockpiles falling into the " wrong hands".

A bold statement that Israel did not make lightly.

The threat of preemptive / offensive / operations would have been weighed and cross talked carefully by Israel.

If Israel believes Assad's weapons are moving towards Hezbollah cells or are about to fall into the hands of AQ cells operating in Syria, then the warning is a very serious one.

It could be this warning that Syria is responding to with their statement on WMD utilization.

One thing is for sure..... Assad is close to a " use or lose" event and a distraction such as an open attack by Israel might even be a acceptable crisis.

One last this is also a guarantee.

Israel will not allow Weapons of Mass Destruction to fall into the hands Hezbollah or any Islamic Radial organization bent on Israel's destruction.

That my friends is my real fear.

Assad knows the Israelis will not stand by if he pushes his weapons to the wrong groups and that might just be the best option he has left.

http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/stories/M/ML_SYRIA?SITE=AP&SECTION=HOME&TEMPLATE=DEFAULT&CTIME=2012-07-23-08-06-13

SECOND FRONT... SECOND OFFENSIVE OPERATION!!

For months, clashes have taken place around and even in the vitally important city of Aleppo, but all of those events were minor in nature.

These reports from Aleppo seemed to signal a change and that change is just more bad news for Assad.

Why Aleppo?

The concept of attacking Damascus and then as soon as Assad's forces seem committed to countering in the capital, shifting the offense to another, distant, location is classic.

All last week, the people of Aleppo, who have basically watched in fear for the past sixteen months, witnessed the capital city under siege; only wondering if they were next.

It didn't take long to get the answer they were horrified of.

Damascus may be the capital, but Aleppo is the economic engine of Syria.

The actions against Aleppo have another chilling impact on Assad's forces.

Just when Assad was thinking he may get the upper hand on Damascus, he receives word Aleppo is under attack.

Aleppo, the city Assad's business supporters count on has now become a primary target of the rebels and this is no accident.

Now, stack on top of this the issue of the border crossings and a clear picture becomes  very apparent.

Assad is completely on the defense!

For months, the Syrian government and Iran have had the luxury of deciding how hard to come down on the rebels and what locations to punish.

That has completely changed now.

Perception rules the Middle East and the overwhelming perception right now is the rebels are winning, a fact that is driving Tehran absolutely crazy!

What I find interesting about the past few days and I have been somewhat stunned at the ignorance of the "talking heads" on most media stations, is the complexity of the rebel's actions.

Assaulting Damascus..

Follow on Assaults in Aleppo.

Simultaneous / multiple / attacks on virtually every major border crossing on all four sides of Syria.

All three of these events point to a major point the media and the rest of the world seems to overlooking.

The rebels are planning at a level far more sophisticated than anyone gave them credit for.

Up until last week, every "expert" analysis out there painted the same picture; A rebel forces that lacked the logistics.. leadership and skill to be a truly threatening force.

Well, that's why I always avoid the title of "expert"... . it usually leads you to looking like an idiot!!!

The rebels are so corridinated, so supported and so tactically capable, it is no wonder the Russians and Iran are accusing them of getting help.

Again, the fatal error of not giving the rebels credit for knowing what they are doing.

Any military leader will tell you, the one critical mistake one can make in battle is underetimating your enemy!!

Not only has Assad done this, but so has the rest of the world.

Now, do the rebels have help?

It depends  on what your definition of help is.

Are they getting logistical support / guns / ammo / cash?

Yes...

Are they getting someone helping them figure out where to attack  and how to attack?

Probably not.

Here is an interesting point to consider when someone tries to explain away the rebel's successful operations.

The US has been " helping" the Iraq and Afagan militaries for years and look what that has lead to!

If there is one thing the US government has learned in the past ten years, it's the age old adage of " you can lead a horse to water, but you can't make them drink"!!

"Help" is only effective if the group you are "helping' has the skill, determination and courage to utilize the "help".

One thing the world needs to stop doing  is selling the rebels short.

What you have seen them achieve in the past week is about 85 percent their doing accompanied by an idiot leader in Syria and a military that is not near as good as the world was lead to believe.

Not only is this Syrian military not as good as they were painted to be, but they are demoralized and exhausted.

If the rebels have a flaw, it's the same flaw the US had with the Iraq / Afghanistan  campaigns.... an Exit Plan!!!

That is the topic of my next post...

 http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-18937514

ISRAEL PLANNING??? A VERY DANGEROUS STATEMENT.

Words that come from the Israeli government are always chosen carefully, so what is the "message" when the Defense Minister states they are making plans incase they must move against "advanced weapons" movement?

Imagine how this report is playing out in Tehran today?

Imagine the thought process in Moscow or in Lebanon?

My opinion is the "message" is not a "message", it's a warning!

It's a warning that may be too late and if it's too late, then Israel is laying the media groundwork for a event they know is coming.

I cannot imagine Israel developing such a brazen act without support.

The concept of support makes me think of what was said after the UN disastrous vote yesterday.

The whole conversation, lead by the US, revolving around possibly taken actions "outside" the UNSC.

I am convinced this statement would have been one of the top stories of the day if the event in Colorado would not have taken place.

The statement did get some traction in the media editorials overseas, but even that was limited.

Never the less, the two statements, one by Israel and one by the US, backed by it's Allies, seem to be related.

Not only is it hard to imagine Israel, unilaterally going after Assad's "advanced weapons", it's even hard to imagine the IDF planners developing such a plan without factoring in the reactions of Iran.

Simply put, the odds of Israel taking such aggressive act, on Syrian or even Lebanese land and Iran simply standing   by and watching...... well... I think you know the answer to that one!!!!

Last but not least.

If this statement by the Israeli Defense Minister was simply a "bluff" meant as a warning, I have no confidence it will have any impact on Assad or Iran.

I sit here tonight, confused and perplexed as to why this statement was made and made so soon after the hint that a " Coalition of the Willing" may form... again!!!!!

Honestly.. I don't buy ether statement.

We shall see.

http://www.jpost.com/Defense/Article.aspx?id=278314

THE TEMPO IN THE MIDDLE EAST SPEEDS UP!!

Here are three quick issues that will give you a good snapshot of where

things in the region stand as of today.

1.  Look at this story and remember the events in Syria set the tone for

events in Lebanon.

Half of Lebanon is cheered for  the bombing in Damascus, while the  current

Lebanese government condemned the bombing.

Hezbollah is in far greater trouble than most realize and that is a real

danger.

Remember; Iran cannot accept the loss of Hezbollah and Syria.

http://www.lebanonews.net/mainhl.asp?hlid=9145

2.  The Syrian government is trying to shape a information campaign that

gets the people of Damascus ready for witnessing uniformed members fighting

uniformed members.

This could be an indication of just how saver the defection issue has

become.

The lack of well planned counter attacks might be the result of Assad's

military commanders trying to determine what units can be trusted?

It also takes time to execute a " counter strike", especially  when you are caught off guard.

The problem with telling the public they may see uniformed members

assaulting their neighborhoods, besides the fact the public in Damascus

probably no longer believes anything the government tells them, becomes they

don't know who to trust.

To put it in more simplistic terms, the people of Damascus can no longer tell who is a good guy and who is bad guy and even that depends on what side you are on!

That is a recipe for true, uncontrollable panic; the type of panic that

creates a mass exodus and thus a refugee issue for Jordan, Turkey and

Israel.

http://www.jpost.com/Headlines/Article.aspx?id=278141

3.  Israel did not take the "bait" on the bus bombing.

Notice Netanyahu immediately placed the blame on Iran not just Hezbollah!

Israel understands all too well Iran's plan to have Israel attack "Arabs"

not Iran, thus giving Iran what it thinks would be the support of the Arab

world!!

It will not work, but a plan Iran has never the less.

If Iran is looking for an Israeli overreaction to an attack, it will have to

have its proxy strike again.

My bet is they will.

http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/stories/E/EU_BULGARIA_ISRAELIS_ATTACKED?SITE=AP

&SECTION=HOME&TEMPLATE=DEFAULT&CTIME=2012-07-18-13-03-56

The Middle East has become the classic example of events moving far faster

than intelligence and leadership can keep up with.

Everyone is behind the power curve right now and events will drive the

region.

The UN plan for Syria is dead... big surprise.

ASSAD IS NOW BACKED INTO A PHYSICAL CORNER!!!

Well, if the panic mode inside the Assad regime was not high enough, it just

got much worse.

Besides panic, it is now personal for Asssad. His Brother-in-law was killed.

A few issues that make this event more than just significant and exciting

for the media to cover.

1.  The Brigade of Islam quickly took credit for the attack; a  group that

is perceived as a arm of  Islamic / AQ/ radical movement.

    The link between such organizations and the FSA, rebel movement, has

been talked about for months, but this will make the issue bowel to the top.

2.  It's very clear now this campaign has been very well planned and it's

possible the "infiltration" concept is a key aspect of the Damascus attack.

3.  The total loss of confidence of internal security operations, is an

overwhelming issue for Assad's inner circle.  What Guard or groups of Guards

do you "really" trust?

    The supporters of Assad, who are in Damascus, must be trying everything

in their power to get out of the city.

     How would you like to be a Sunni, after the fall of Assad, who is found

by the Rebels to have supported Assad?

     I can guarantee you, someone has as "list" of names / families /

associates, even if it's built on speculation.

4.  The battle in Damascus is very possibly a killing blow to the Syrian

economy.

Who is trading in Damascus in the past three days?

What business are open?

If you are an Assad supporter and you have no confidence who is walking the

streets of Damascus right now, how do you open the doors to your business?

5.  What is Iran thinking right now?

    Does this event drive a wedge between the Iranian advisors to Assad and

the Syrian military leaders?

   Did Iran lose KIA / WIA / in the bomb blast?  ( Don't trust the Syrian

news for the actual body count.)

6.  How many Russians are in Damascus and what is Russia's plan to get them

out?

    Perhaps the Navel flotilla is actually a NEO / Noncombatant Evacuation /

mission?

What does Assad need to do?

 First and foremost, he has to show he controls Damascus or has the ability

to stop the assault and he has to do this without destroying the capital of

Syria!

  It is and it will continue to be virtually impossible to control the

streets of the city without a curfew!

 Without one, at least in the sections of the city where the fighting is

taking place and that appears to be just about anywhere now, Assad's forces

will have no idea  who is just out walking and who is "scouting".

The problem becomes the impact of a curfew.

It is equivalent to admitting the city, the capital, is under siege.

The perception of advantage goes completely to the rebels.

What might the result of this event be?

Assad stands the chance of actually losing this conflict.

The spread of panic can lead to an uncontrollable climate in the entire

city.

 With the loss of his Brother- in-law, Assad now has anger, blood revenge,

on his mind more than ever.

Striking back while he still can is quickly becoming his only option.

Homs or other rebel strongholds are in great danger.

If Assad was ever going to utilize his full military capacity, it will be

now.

He can't fight a Tank and Fighter / Bomber campaign in Damascus, well..

maybe tanks, but he can turn lose his entire arsenal as a revenge event.

Homs is a logical target.

Assad is now a very illogical person.

The rest of the bad news comes from the rebels.

As I said yesterday, it's one thing for young men to get caught up in the

"glory" of shooting and fighting, it's far more complex to understand when

to stop killing and fighting.

Do the rebels, FSA, have an " endgame" ?

What is the plan if Damascus really was to fall within the next few days?

Might last question and the one I always come back to.

What will the Tsar do and what will Iran do?

Was the bombing of the bus in Bulgaria  simply a coincidence?  

Remember my theory of Iran's "Red Line" for Syria.

If Assad falls, so does Hezbollah in Lebanon and so do the dreams / plans of the Persian Empire.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/middleeast/syria/9408321/Assads-br

other-in-law-and-top-Syrian-officials-killed-in-Damascus-suicide-bomb.html

SYRIA'S    TET????

As a follow up to my comments last night:

Some say the Tet Offensive was a turning point in the Vietnam War.

If what we are witnessing is the Syrian conflict's version of Tet, in

Damascus, then the same may hold true.

 Several interesting strategic events are becoming more and more clear as

the battle inside Damascus unfolds.

1.  The Rebels, by design I'm sure, have taken the pressure off of Homs and

other territories where they are attempting to solidify their hold.

             It's nearly impossible for Assad to go on the offensive, at least

for now, in other regions of Syria while his Headquarters is under attack.

             The Rebels will take advantage of this Damascus event to resupply

and prepare for the next round of attacks in the North.

2.  By attacking Damascus in force, Assad's supporters are probably losing

all hope of him, and them, staying in power.

3.  If the stories of Assad's troops firing into the Palestinian Refugee

Camps of Damascus are true, then the number of bodies ready to support the

conflict inside the city just increased tenfold.

             By the way; a brilliant move on the part of the Rebels; attack and

            then fall back into the Palestinian camps and force Assad's troops to fire

            on the Palestinian refugees in Damascus!

4.  This offensive in Damascus may smoke out the Iranian support and expose

it to the media.

           

            Imagine a Command Post full of angry senior Syrian military leaders

            with Iranian "aids" still whispering in the ear of Assad.

This Syrian "Tet" event is real trouble for Assad and Iran and Russia know

it.

Even if Assad's forces beat back the attackers, the visual impact to the

city, one his supporters still there will see, will have a devastating

impact.

The Rebels may have planned a brilliant "Tet" style event, but did they plan

an "end game"?

Imagine a Syrian senior leader, especially a military one, who defects and

makes the comment Assad is only listening to Iranian " Aids".

If someone makes the comment,  " Assad is murdering his own people with the

help of Iranian supporters", and that comment comes not from the Rebels, but

from a senior Syrian defector?

Tracking the WMD stockpiles is critical.

If Israel sees them being handed over to Hezbollah or other radical groups,

then what?

The Syiran "Tet" may be the game changer for not just Syria, but for the

whole region.

http://www.debka.com/article/22183/South-Damascus-embattled-Syrian-high-comm

and-moves-to-fortified-site